SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  51
Q3 2016 RECAP & HOLIDAY PREVIEW
WEBCAST
Evan Gold
Executive Vice President
Global Services
Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director
Head of Global Retail & Technology
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
WEBCAST:
Holiday Homestretch
Thursday, Dec 15
WEBCAST:
Holiday Recap
Thursday, Jan 5
JOIN US!
2
WEATHER INSIGHTS
Q3 2016 RECAP
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• U.S. warmest in 20+ years
– Warmer than normal
• Canada warmer than LY
– Warmer than normal
4
Q3 2016 (August - October):
Warmer and Wetter Than LY and Normal
• U.S. wettest since 2011
– Wetter than normal
• Canada wetter than LY
– Wetter than normal
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
A Challenging Start to Q3 in August…
2016 2015
Weather Impact
Aug. 2016 vs Prior Year
APPAREL SPECIALTY
-$198 Million
AUGUST vs. NORMAL
Retail Traffic: - 0.5% Business Impacts
•Hot Coffee
•Kids Pants
•Fans
•Suncare
•Sports Drinks
•Sandals
WDD
5
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
SEPTEMBER vs. NORMAL
2016 2015
Weather Impact
Sep. 2016 vs Prior Year
APPAREL SPECIALTY
-$195 Million
DIY / HOME CENTERS
+$104 Million
Warmth Continued Through September
Retail Traffic: - 0.6% Business Impacts
•Soup
•Sweaters
•Lawn & Garden
•Allergy Relief
•Grilling & Propane
WDD
6
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Regional Opportunities During October
Last October, the East had the best
opportunities for fall sales while
markets west of the Mississippi River
were challenged by warmer
temperatures.
7
OCTOBER 2016- TEMPERATURE VS. LY
October 2-8 October 9-15 October 16-22
OCTOBER 2015 VS. NORMAL
October 22-29
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
October 2016
Retail Traffic: -0.5% Business Impacts
•Pants
•Fleece
•Pest Control
8
WDD
•Rainwear
•Lawn Care
Halloween
Monday, October 31st
Temperature vs Normal
Opportunities Were Temporal As Well
Temperature vs LY
Weather Impact
Oct. 2016 vs Prior Year
APPAREL SPECIALTY
-$176 Million
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Q3 2016 Recap:
Hurricane Hermine (August 28 – September 3)
9
• First hurricane to make landfall
in the U.S. since 2005
• Made landfall near Tallahassee,
FL on September 2nd as a
Category 1 hurricane
• Was downgraded to a tropical
storm and moved through
Georgia and the Carolinas
• High surf, localized storm surge,
and strong rip currents along the
East Coast Labor Day weekend
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Q3 2016 Recap:
Hurricane Matthew (September 28-October 10)
• Made landfall near Charleston, SC on
October 8th as a Category 1 hurricane
• Over 2 million power outages and over
30 fatalities in the U.S.
Consumer activity in advance of the storm
combined with the specific path of Matthew
helped temper the overall severity of the impact.
Post-storm purchasing in impacted areas spiked
for pumps, chainsaws, tarps, as well as hardware
and materials to repair property damage.
10
PUMPS +22%
SE Atlantic Region
Month-to-Date vs. LY
WATER +7%
Eastern Florida
Week ending 10/8 vs. LY
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
US 2016 HOLIDAY
PREVIEW
11
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR
FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
OCTOBER 28, 2016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
Agenda
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop
2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday
2016
3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday
Growth
4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season
5. E-Commerce: What Do Consumers
Respond To?
6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up
Slightly; Clear Shift Toward E-
Commerce
7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will
Remain Popular
12
8. Black Friday: Could It Be
Dethroned?
9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More
Early-Bird Online Shoppers in the US
10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
11. Presidential Election Impact
12. Holiday Shopping Themes
13. Holiday Fashion Trends
14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables
15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s
Hot Holiday Toys List
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop
Indicator Period 2016 2015
YoY %
Change
Impact on
Consumption
Gas Price (USD per Gallon) Sep $2.33 $2.46 (5.28)% +
Unemployment Rate Sep 5.0% 5.1% (0.1)% +
Wage Growth Sep $21.68 21.63% 2.6% +
Disposable Income Aug 0.1% 0.4% (0.3)% –
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
20-City Composite Home
Price NSA Index
Aug 188.2 179.0 5.1% +
University of Michigan Index
of Consumer Sentiment
Sep 91.2 87.2 4.6% +
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics/US Energy Information Administration/US Bureau of Economic Analysis/S&P Dow Jones/University of Michigan
13
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop
• Gas prices were down more than 5% year over year in September
• Consumer confidence hit 91.2 in September, up 4.6% year over year
• The US unemployment rate was 5% in September, 0.1% lower than in
September 2015
• Private sector wages rose by 2.6% year over year in September
• Disposable income growth softened to 0.1% in August (adjusting for inflation),
following a 0.3% increase in the prior month
• Home prices continued to rise moderately, supported by low mortgage rates
and a shortage of supply
• Inflation/deflation
– Apparel prices are below the average inflationary level
– Food prices flattened out in August, reaching levels unseen since 2009/2010
14
Source: US Energy Information Administration/International Monetary Fund/Rhodium Group
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumers Slightly More
Optimistic as Gas Prices Level Off
• Gas prices were $2.33 per gallon in September, down more than 5% from a
year ago
• Low gas prices continue to curb the inflation rate
$2.33
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16
Retail Gasoline Prices (USD per Gal.)
15
Source: US Energy Information Administration
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Sentiment
Climbs in September
• The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment hit 91.2 in
September, up 4.6% year over year and up from 89.8 in August
• Confidence edged upward due to gains among higher-income households
91.2
30
50
70
90
110
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
16
Through September 30, 2016
Source: University of Michigan
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: The Labor Market Stands Firm
• The US unemployment rate was 5% in September, edging up from 4.9% in
August.
– Job gains were seen in professional and technical services, financial activities
and healthcare.
• Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose by 2.6% year over
year in September, slightly higher than August’s 2.4% increase to $25.79
5.0%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
US Unemployment Rate
2.6%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY % Change)
17
Through September 30, 2016; seasonally adjusted
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Savings Rate Falls as
Disposable Income Increases
• Disposable income growth softened to 0.1% in August (after adjusting for
inflation), following a 0.3% increase in the prior month
• The US personal savings rate remains below levels seen at the start of 2016; it
reached a three-month low of 5.7% in August, suggesting that many
consumers are in a good place and have money to spend
$12,697
$808
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$11,000
$11,400
$11,800
$12,200
$12,600
Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
Real Disposable Income Personal Savings
Real Disposable Income (Left Axis) and Personal Savings (Right Axis)
18
Through August 30, 2016; seasonally adjusted
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Home Price Gains Continue in
August
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index
increased by 5.1% in August
• Home prices continued to rise moderately, supported by low mortgage rates
and a shortage of supply
– The number of homes for sale has fallen by 7% from a year ago in August
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index
188.2
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16
19
Source: S&P Dow Jones
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Consumer Prices Rose
Steadily in August
• The core PCE deflator, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2%
month over month in August and was up 1.7% from August 2015
• Consumer prices have grown in six of the past seven months, driven by higher
oil and housing prices
1.7
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
Core Headline
20
PCE Deflator (YoY % Change)
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Retail Sales Point to Confident
Consumers
• US retail sales excluding autos posted solid growth in September, up 0.5% from
August and up 2.7% from the year-ago period
– Nonstore retailers’ sales rose by 10.6% year over year
– Restaurant and bars’ sales rose by 6.1% year over year
– Department stores declined 6.4%, continuing the recent trend of underperformance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
12 13 14 15 16
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
21
Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos
Jan 2012–Sep 2016 (YoY % Change)
Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos
Oct 2015–Sep 2016 (YoY % Change)
Source: US Census Bureau
2.7%
2.7%
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016
We are optimistic about the prospects for holiday sales this year and believe
there could be upside to projections
• We estimate that holiday sales from November through December will grow by
3% to 4% versus 3.2% last year and an average increase of 2.5% over the last
10 years
• The NRF is projecting holiday sales growth of 3.6%. On average, industry groups
are forecasting growth of roughly 3.7% for the period
• Positive factors include a favorable macro backdrop, calendar and weather
forecast
22
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
$529
$554
$569
$585
$608
$626
$645–$651
5.2%%
4.6%
2.7% 2.7%
4.1%
3.2%
3%–4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
GrowthRate
HolidayRetailSales(USDBil.)
Holiday Retail Sales Growth Rate
Source: National Retail Federation (NRF)/Fung Global Retail & Technology
23
2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday Growth
• Online sales were up 15.8% in the second quarter, and accounted for 8.1% of
total retail sales
• We expect online sales to increase by 7% to 10% over the holiday season
($91.6B), and to make up 10.7% of total holiday sales
– One in three shoppers (35%) made more than half their holiday purchases online in
2015
15.3%
15.5%
17.4%
15.7%
16.4%
18.2%
17.4%
16.0% 15.5%
15.8% 15.8%
14.2%
14.8%
14.2%
15.2%
15.1%
15.5%
15.8%
US Retail E-Commerce Sales Growth, YoY % Change (1Q12–2Q16)
29%
30%
34%
31%
33%
36%
39% 40%
44%
46%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent of US Holiday Shopping Done Online (2006–2015)
24
Seasonally adjusted
Source: US Census Bureau
Seasonally adjusted
Source: NRF
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season
• Mobile commerce was up 59% YoY to $5 billion during the 2015 holiday season
(comScore)
– The majority of search is now mobile: 56% of searches that resulted in a click-through to
a top retail site were conducted on a smartphone or tablet during the holiday season
• Spending via mobile devices is expected to increase by 45.2%, to hit $20 billion in
2016 (CTA)
– Smartphone m-commerce growth will exceed tablets’ growth for the first time in 2016
25
Source: Signal
51.7%
40.8% 34.0% 28.7% 24.6% 21.6%
46.6% 58.0% 65.0% 70.5% 74.8% 77.9%
1.70% 1.30% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.50%
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Tablet Smartphone Other
$206.5 $267.3 $335.8$80.9 $115.9 $156.4
US Retail M-Commerce Sales: Total (USD Bil.) and Share, by
Device (%)
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
5. E-Commerce: What Will We See from Retailers?
• Retailers are offering a variety of online and in-
store ordering and delivery options
– 60% of retailers will provide both free
shipping and free returns (NRF)
– Buy online, pick up in store / Buy online,
return in store
• Save on shipping costs
• Add-on purchases
• The most profitable online promotions last holiday
season
– Online-only sales, limited-time offers and
free shipping (NRF)
26
Source: NRF, Holiday Survey
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up Slightly; Clear Shift
Toward E-Commerce
• Retail sector seasonal hiring:
640,000–690,000 versus 675,300 last
year
– Transportation, warehouse and
entertainment sectors will see
increases
• JCPenney plans 33.3% increase in
seasonal workforce
– 2,000 employees to focus on fulfilling
online orders
• Amazon plans 20.1% increase in
seasonal workforce
– 120,000 seasonal jobs for customer
fulfillment and customer service
Number of Seasonal Hires
2015 2016
YoY %
Change
UPS 95,000 95,000 0%
Macy’s 85,000 83,000 (2.4)%
Home Depot 80,000 80,000 0%
Amazon 100,000 120,000 20%
Target 70,000 77,500 10.7%
Kohl’s 79,160 69,000 (12.8)%
FedEx 55,000 50,000 (9.1)%
JCPenney 30,000 40,000 33.3%
Lowe’s 40,000 46,000 15%
Bon-Ton 13,000 13,000 0%
TOTAL 647,160 673,500 4%
27
Source: Company reports
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will Remain Popular
• The trend to open early on ‘Gray Thursday’ will continue this
year, but at a slower rate than recent years
– 49% of retailers plan to open on Thanksgiving, up 1% from last
year
– 59% of Shopping visits will be on mobile
• Earlier online promotions to stay competitive
– Walmart and Target made majority Black Friday deals available
online the morning of Thanksgiving last year
• Retailers staying home for Thanksgiving to align with
corporate values
– Costco, Home Depot, REI, Office Depot, Mall of America, CBL &
Associates, T.J. Maxx
28
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: #OptOut Thanksgiving
29
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: Retailers Open on Thanksgiving Last Year
30
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: REI With 2nd #OptOutside Campaign
• Generous employee benefit and external display of the brand’s
principles
– Encouraging consumers to spend time outdoors
– Younger consumers are more inclined to support a
company that illustrates social impact with specific actions
• With #OptOutside, REI will ask people to share what they are
doing on Black Friday via social media
31
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: No Longer the Biggest
Shopping Holiday of the Season
• Black Friday’s significance has
waned in recent years
– Promotional activity has increased
year-round
• Consumers looking for bargains and
spreading out their spending
– Almost half of shoppers will begin
shopping by November 1
• Friday, December 23, is set to be the
biggest shopping day of the season
– That Friday is the day before
Chanukah begins and two days
before Christmas
2016: Top 5 Expected Biggest
Shopping Days (Sales)
2016: Top 5 Expected Busiest
Shopping Days (Shopper Visits)
1. Friday, December 23 1. Saturday, December 17
2. Saturday, December 17 2. Black Friday, November 25
3. Black Friday, November 25 3. Friday, December 23
4. Thursday, December 22 4. Saturday, December 10
5. Wednesday, December 21 5. Monday, December 26
32
Source: RetailNext
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More Early-Bird Online
Shoppers in the US
• Singles’ Day (Nov. 11) is China’s equivalent
to Cyber Monday. In 2015, e-commerce
giant Alibaba saw $14.3 billion in
transactions, up 60% from 2014
– Sales in the US reached $1.4 billion in 2015
(Adobe)
– 180 US retailers had exclusive offerings
• Globalization is a top priority
– Expanding international brand offerings
– Katy Perry is a global ambassador
• We expect $20 billion in sales this year, a
40% year-over-year increase
– US sales to hit $2.5 billion, up 50%
33
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
• There are two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year:
31 days compared with 29 last year
34
Election Day
Singles’ Day
Thanksgiving
Black Friday
Cyber Monday
Giving Tuesday
Green Monday
Chanukah
(Sundown–Sundown,
Dec 24–Jan 1)
Super Saturday
Christmas
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
• Super Saturday falls on December 24, one day before Christmas and the day
Chanukah begins. Shoppers are likely to make last-minute gift purchases in
stores rather than online on Super Saturday.
• Shoppers will also take advantage of Free Shipping Day on December 16,
which guarantees delivery by Christmas Eve
35
10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
11. Presidential Election Impact: Could Keep the Lid on
Spending Early in the Season
• Political ads driving up the cost of
advertising
– Political advertising spend is up 20% since the
last election, and digital spend is up 700%
– Expect delays in holiday promotions
• Retail store foot traffic and sales are
likely to be negatively impacted in the
weeks leading up to Election Day
– Shoppers are preoccupied with the election
– With uncertainty abounding, consumers tend
to put shopping trips on hold
• Postelection bounce back as shoppers
release pent-up demand after
November 8
– We expect November sales to be as strong
as last year
36
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
12. Holiday Shopping Themes
• Gift cards continue to be an attractive option
– Millennials are sensitive to cybersecurity issues
and identity fraud; they look for safer digital
payment methods
– Two-thirds of shoppers (63%) purchased at least
one gift card last year, up 2% from the previous
year (NRF)
• Travel and entertainment
– Almost half of overall holiday spending (42%)
will accrue to travel and entertainment
– Millennials preference for gifts that entail
experience driving growth
• Subscription services as gifts
– 1,450% growth in visits to those websites;
popular gifts include Birchbox and Dollar Shave
Club subscriptions
37
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
13. Holiday Fashion Trends
Standout fashion trends for the 2016 holiday
season
• Athleisure is changing shape
– A more refined, multifunctional look
• 70s style and athleisure trend in shoes
– Birkenstocks, Nike Jordan, Chaco
• Accessories
– Backpacks, smart jewelry and watches
• Denim and jeans strengthen, leggings trend
wanes
38
Source: Forever 21
Source: Instagram, @Forever 21
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables
• Tech items will remain popular
– 68% of consumers will buy electronics this
holiday season (CTA)
– Those gifting electronics plan to spend
3.1% more on them than last year
• Personal assistants
– Amazon Echo
– Google Assistant
• Virtual reality
– Sony PlayStation VR
– Google Cardboard
• Wearables
– Apple Watch Series 2
– Fitbit Charge 2
39
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s Hot Toys for 2016
• US toy sales grew by 6.7% in 2015 to
$19.4 billion (NPD Group)
• Toys that stimulate the mind
– Fisher-Price’s Think & Learn Code-a-pillar
– Cozmo, a robot with artificial
intelligence
• Movie releases to drive sales
– Trolls (November 4)
– Moana (November 23)
– Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
(December 16)
40
WEATHER INSIGHTS
2016 HOLIDAY SEASON OUTLOOK
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Temperaturevs.LastYearPrecipitationvs.LastYear
November 2015: Warmest retail November since 1999
November 2016 Outlook: Weather-Driven Demand vs. LY
SECTOR IMPACTS:
+$56 million for APPAREL SPECIALTY
-$169 million for DIY/HOME CENTERS
CATEGORY IMPACTS:
+15% WDD for BOOTS
+9% WDD for HEATERS
+7% WDD for FLEECE
+1% WDD for SOUP
42
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Black Friday (Week 43): Colder Temperatures vs LY
in the East Will Support Seasonal Demand
Temperature vs. LY Precipitation vs. LY
• Colder temperatures across the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Southeast
will drive demand for seasonal goods. A drier trend in the Plains will be
positive for traffic.
• For reference, in 2015, Thanksgiving Day was warmest since 2012 and
wettest since 2010. The Black Friday weekend was warmest since 2012
and wettest since 2000.
43
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Heaters
+32% WDD
Atlanta
Rainwear
+20% WDD
New York City
Sweaters
-4% WDD
Houston
Pants
+4% WDD
Nashville
Firewood
-13% WDD
Denver
Soup
-5% WDD
Seattle
Ice Melt
+32% WDD
Calgary
Outerwear
+7% WDD
Toronto
Boots
+6% WDD
Winnipeg
Long Sleeve Shirts
-3% WDD
Los Angeles
Retail Apparel Traffic
+0.1% WDD
North America
November 2016:
Weather Driven Demand Shopping Expectations vs. LY
44
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Temperaturevs.LastYearPrecipitationvs.LastYear
December 2015: Warmest retail December since 1960
December 2016 Outlook: Weather-Driven Demand vs. LY
SECTOR IMPACTS:
+$275 million for APPAREL STORES
-$876 million for DIY/HOME CENTERS
CATEGORY IMPACTS:
+33% WDD for SNOW REMOVAL
+20% WDD for FIREWOOD
+9% WDD for HATS & GLOVES
+5% WDD for AUTOMOTIVE BATTERIES
45
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
December 2016:
Weather Driven Demand Shopping Expectations vs. LY
Rainwear
+27% WDD
Jacksonville
Automotive Batteries
+12% WDD
Chicago
Heating
+30% WDD
Dallas
Fleece
-2% WDD
San Francisco
Firewood
-3% WDD
Denver
Retail Apparel Traffic
+0.5% WDD
North America
Boots
+21% WDD
Toronto
Outerwear
+9% WDD
Edmonton
Hats, Gloves, & Scarves
+2% WDD
Saskatoon
Snow Throwers
+44% WDD
Boston
46
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Legend
Inches
Legend
Inches
• December 2015 was the warmest in
121 years.
• While precipitation was the most in
121 years, snowfall ended 41%
below normal.
• December 2016 is expected to bring
increased snowfall to the Midwest
and Northeast.
• Weather-driven risk is likely to be
confined to the Mountain West.
U.S. December Snowfall Outlook:
Increased Snowfall Midwest, Northeast vs LY
THIS YEAR:
December 2016 Outlook vs LY
LAST YEAR:
December 2015
Observed Amounts (Inches)
47
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Legend
Centimeters
Canada December Snowfall Outlook:
Higher Snowfall Amounts Expected for Most vs. LY
LAST YEAR:
December 2015
Observed Amounts (Centimeters)
Legend
Centimeters
THIS YEAR:
December 2016 Outlook vs LY
• December 2015 brought much
warmer conditions, particularly for
interior and eastern provinces.
• Total snowfall was 57% above prior
year but 25% below normal.
• December 2016 is expected to bring
a much more robust demand
environment for snow throwers and
pushers.
48
Centimeters
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Snowfall: Custom Automated Snow & Ice Reports
49
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
2016 Holiday Shopping Season: Key Takeaways
1.Sales Growth is Expected
• Favorable macro environment and calendar
2.The Consumer is More Connected Than Ever Before
• Omnichannel is here while AI, VR, and IoT Continues to Push the
Boundaries of Traditional Retail
3.Colder November and December vs. LY Will Support
Seasonal Categories
• Expect More Traffic-Limiting Events in December vs. LY
50
THANK YOU!
WEBCAST
@FungRetailTech
@Planalytics
Evan Gold
Executive Vice President
Global Services
Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director
Head of Global Retail & Technology

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Building Products and Materials Industry Insights - Q1 2015
Building Products and Materials Industry Insights - Q1 2015Building Products and Materials Industry Insights - Q1 2015
Building Products and Materials Industry Insights - Q1 2015Duff & Phelps
 
Economic Indicators for the week of October 11 - 15
Economic Indicators for the week of October 11 - 15 Economic Indicators for the week of October 11 - 15
Economic Indicators for the week of October 11 - 15 NAR Research
 
Indian equity market performance in election year - challenges and drivers
Indian equity market performance in election year - challenges and driversIndian equity market performance in election year - challenges and drivers
Indian equity market performance in election year - challenges and driversNiteen S Dharmawat
 
The Swedish Economy, No. 3, 31 March 2011
The Swedish Economy, No. 3, 31 March 2011 The Swedish Economy, No. 3, 31 March 2011
The Swedish Economy, No. 3, 31 March 2011 Swedbank
 
Bank of england and inflation sense of déjà vu
Bank of england and inflation  sense of déjà vuBank of england and inflation  sense of déjà vu
Bank of england and inflation sense of déjà vuOlivier Desbarres
 
2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)
2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)
2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)PublicFinanceTV
 
Econ chart book september 2016
Econ chart book september 2016Econ chart book september 2016
Econ chart book september 2016Charles McKay
 
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019Ivan Kaufman
 
Wells Fargo - SDBJ 2016 Economic Trends
Wells Fargo - SDBJ 2016 Economic TrendsWells Fargo - SDBJ 2016 Economic Trends
Wells Fargo - SDBJ 2016 Economic Trendssdbusinessjournal
 
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1Ivan Kaufman
 
June 10 I Session 1 I GBIH
June 10 I Session 1 I GBIHJune 10 I Session 1 I GBIH
June 10 I Session 1 I GBIHGBIHSupport
 
2017 Annual Economic Outlook - Lee McPheters
2017 Annual Economic Outlook - Lee McPheters2017 Annual Economic Outlook - Lee McPheters
2017 Annual Economic Outlook - Lee McPhetersShay Moser
 
Econ chart book july 2016
Econ chart book july 2016Econ chart book july 2016
Econ chart book july 2016Charles McKay
 
Monthly Economic Update For March 2011
Monthly Economic Update For March 2011Monthly Economic Update For March 2011
Monthly Economic Update For March 2011tjsulli1
 
2017 Arizona Economic Update & Outlook
2017 Arizona Economic Update & Outlook2017 Arizona Economic Update & Outlook
2017 Arizona Economic Update & OutlookShay Moser
 

Tendances (20)

Canada GDP – August 2016
Canada GDP – August 2016Canada GDP – August 2016
Canada GDP – August 2016
 
Building Products and Materials Industry Insights - Q1 2015
Building Products and Materials Industry Insights - Q1 2015Building Products and Materials Industry Insights - Q1 2015
Building Products and Materials Industry Insights - Q1 2015
 
Economic Indicators for the week of October 11 - 15
Economic Indicators for the week of October 11 - 15 Economic Indicators for the week of October 11 - 15
Economic Indicators for the week of October 11 - 15
 
Indian equity market performance in election year - challenges and drivers
Indian equity market performance in election year - challenges and driversIndian equity market performance in election year - challenges and drivers
Indian equity market performance in election year - challenges and drivers
 
The Swedish Economy, No. 3, 31 March 2011
The Swedish Economy, No. 3, 31 March 2011 The Swedish Economy, No. 3, 31 March 2011
The Swedish Economy, No. 3, 31 March 2011
 
Bank of england and inflation sense of déjà vu
Bank of england and inflation  sense of déjà vuBank of england and inflation  sense of déjà vu
Bank of england and inflation sense of déjà vu
 
Emerging Economy September 2009
Emerging Economy September 2009Emerging Economy September 2009
Emerging Economy September 2009
 
2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)
2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)
2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)
 
Econ chart book september 2016
Econ chart book september 2016Econ chart book september 2016
Econ chart book september 2016
 
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
 
12082014
1208201412082014
12082014
 
Wells Fargo - SDBJ 2016 Economic Trends
Wells Fargo - SDBJ 2016 Economic TrendsWells Fargo - SDBJ 2016 Economic Trends
Wells Fargo - SDBJ 2016 Economic Trends
 
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
 
Economic Forum 25 February 2020
Economic Forum 25 February 2020Economic Forum 25 February 2020
Economic Forum 25 February 2020
 
TPL July 12 17
TPL July 12 17TPL July 12 17
TPL July 12 17
 
June 10 I Session 1 I GBIH
June 10 I Session 1 I GBIHJune 10 I Session 1 I GBIH
June 10 I Session 1 I GBIH
 
2017 Annual Economic Outlook - Lee McPheters
2017 Annual Economic Outlook - Lee McPheters2017 Annual Economic Outlook - Lee McPheters
2017 Annual Economic Outlook - Lee McPheters
 
Econ chart book july 2016
Econ chart book july 2016Econ chart book july 2016
Econ chart book july 2016
 
Monthly Economic Update For March 2011
Monthly Economic Update For March 2011Monthly Economic Update For March 2011
Monthly Economic Update For March 2011
 
2017 Arizona Economic Update & Outlook
2017 Arizona Economic Update & Outlook2017 Arizona Economic Update & Outlook
2017 Arizona Economic Update & Outlook
 

En vedette

US Consumer Analysis: Apparel and Footwear
US Consumer Analysis: Apparel and FootwearUS Consumer Analysis: Apparel and Footwear
US Consumer Analysis: Apparel and FootwearDeborah Weinswig
 
Retail event flyer and agenda
Retail event flyer and agendaRetail event flyer and agenda
Retail event flyer and agendaDeborah Weinswig
 
Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and Distribution
Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and DistributionEco-Friendly Fashion Production and Distribution
Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and DistributionDeborah Weinswig
 
IN-STORE TECHNOLOGY AS RETAILTAINMENT BRIGHT SHINY OBJECT OR THE NEW NORMAL?
IN-STORE TECHNOLOGY AS RETAILTAINMENT  BRIGHT SHINY OBJECT OR THE NEW NORMAL?IN-STORE TECHNOLOGY AS RETAILTAINMENT  BRIGHT SHINY OBJECT OR THE NEW NORMAL?
IN-STORE TECHNOLOGY AS RETAILTAINMENT BRIGHT SHINY OBJECT OR THE NEW NORMAL?Deborah Weinswig
 
ARRA Weatherization Presentation
ARRA Weatherization PresentationARRA Weatherization Presentation
ARRA Weatherization PresentationMark Bodner
 
NRF Exhibitor Big !deas: Retail's Big Show 2016 Presentation
NRF Exhibitor Big !deas: Retail's Big Show 2016 Presentation NRF Exhibitor Big !deas: Retail's Big Show 2016 Presentation
NRF Exhibitor Big !deas: Retail's Big Show 2016 Presentation Deborah Weinswig
 
DESIGN:RETAIL FORUM: In-Store Technology As Retailtainment: Bright Shiny Obje...
DESIGN:RETAIL FORUM: In-Store Technology As Retailtainment: Bright Shiny Obje...DESIGN:RETAIL FORUM: In-Store Technology As Retailtainment: Bright Shiny Obje...
DESIGN:RETAIL FORUM: In-Store Technology As Retailtainment: Bright Shiny Obje...Deborah Weinswig
 
60 Second Binary Options Strategy: the complete guide
60 Second Binary Options Strategy: the complete guide60 Second Binary Options Strategy: the complete guide
60 Second Binary Options Strategy: the complete guideTrade Opus
 
Phoenix Weatherization And Energy Assistance Presentation
Phoenix    Weatherization And Energy Assistance PresentationPhoenix    Weatherization And Energy Assistance Presentation
Phoenix Weatherization And Energy Assistance PresentationICF_HCD
 
Customer Journey Mapping and CX Research
Customer Journey Mapping and CX ResearchCustomer Journey Mapping and CX Research
Customer Journey Mapping and CX ResearchMarc Stickdorn
 

En vedette (11)

US Consumer Analysis: Apparel and Footwear
US Consumer Analysis: Apparel and FootwearUS Consumer Analysis: Apparel and Footwear
US Consumer Analysis: Apparel and Footwear
 
Retail event flyer and agenda
Retail event flyer and agendaRetail event flyer and agenda
Retail event flyer and agenda
 
Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and Distribution
Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and DistributionEco-Friendly Fashion Production and Distribution
Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and Distribution
 
IN-STORE TECHNOLOGY AS RETAILTAINMENT BRIGHT SHINY OBJECT OR THE NEW NORMAL?
IN-STORE TECHNOLOGY AS RETAILTAINMENT  BRIGHT SHINY OBJECT OR THE NEW NORMAL?IN-STORE TECHNOLOGY AS RETAILTAINMENT  BRIGHT SHINY OBJECT OR THE NEW NORMAL?
IN-STORE TECHNOLOGY AS RETAILTAINMENT BRIGHT SHINY OBJECT OR THE NEW NORMAL?
 
ARRA Weatherization Presentation
ARRA Weatherization PresentationARRA Weatherization Presentation
ARRA Weatherization Presentation
 
NRF Exhibitor Big !deas: Retail's Big Show 2016 Presentation
NRF Exhibitor Big !deas: Retail's Big Show 2016 Presentation NRF Exhibitor Big !deas: Retail's Big Show 2016 Presentation
NRF Exhibitor Big !deas: Retail's Big Show 2016 Presentation
 
DESIGN:RETAIL FORUM: In-Store Technology As Retailtainment: Bright Shiny Obje...
DESIGN:RETAIL FORUM: In-Store Technology As Retailtainment: Bright Shiny Obje...DESIGN:RETAIL FORUM: In-Store Technology As Retailtainment: Bright Shiny Obje...
DESIGN:RETAIL FORUM: In-Store Technology As Retailtainment: Bright Shiny Obje...
 
Africa
AfricaAfrica
Africa
 
60 Second Binary Options Strategy: the complete guide
60 Second Binary Options Strategy: the complete guide60 Second Binary Options Strategy: the complete guide
60 Second Binary Options Strategy: the complete guide
 
Phoenix Weatherization And Energy Assistance Presentation
Phoenix    Weatherization And Energy Assistance PresentationPhoenix    Weatherization And Energy Assistance Presentation
Phoenix Weatherization And Energy Assistance Presentation
 
Customer Journey Mapping and CX Research
Customer Journey Mapping and CX ResearchCustomer Journey Mapping and CX Research
Customer Journey Mapping and CX Research
 

Similaire à Q3 2016 Recap & Holiday Preview Webinar

Q3 2016 Recap & US 2016 Holiday Preview
Q3 2016 Recap & US 2016 Holiday PreviewQ3 2016 Recap & US 2016 Holiday Preview
Q3 2016 Recap & US 2016 Holiday PreviewDeborah Weinswig
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2019Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2019Jon Weaver
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016Annie Williams
 
Wages and Employment – Canada – august 2016
Wages and Employment – Canada – august 2016Wages and Employment – Canada – august 2016
Wages and Employment – Canada – august 2016paul young cpa, cga
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019Jon Weaver
 
Q2 Recap & Back-to-School Webcast with Planalytics
Q2 Recap & Back-to-School Webcast with PlanalyticsQ2 Recap & Back-to-School Webcast with Planalytics
Q2 Recap & Back-to-School Webcast with PlanalyticsDeborah Weinswig
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Jan 2016
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Jan 2016Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Jan 2016
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Jan 2016Jon Weaver
 
Econ Chart Book December 2016
Econ Chart Book December 2016Econ Chart Book December 2016
Econ Chart Book December 2016Charles McKay
 
2016 Economic and Housing Real Estate Forecast-California Realtors Association
2016 Economic and Housing Real Estate Forecast-California Realtors Association2016 Economic and Housing Real Estate Forecast-California Realtors Association
2016 Economic and Housing Real Estate Forecast-California Realtors AssociationRealEstateEducation
 
Annie Williams Market Trends Nov-Dec 2013
Annie Williams Market Trends Nov-Dec 2013Annie Williams Market Trends Nov-Dec 2013
Annie Williams Market Trends Nov-Dec 2013Jon Weaver
 
Annie Williams Market Report May-June 2016
Annie Williams Market Report May-June 2016Annie Williams Market Report May-June 2016
Annie Williams Market Report May-June 2016Jon Weaver
 
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD U.S. Macro Forecast
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD U.S. Macro ForecastCUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD U.S. Macro Forecast
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD U.S. Macro ForecastMatthew Marshall
 
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016Jon Weaver
 
September 2016 Gross Domestic Product (gdp) - Canada
September 2016 Gross Domestic Product (gdp) - Canada September 2016 Gross Domestic Product (gdp) - Canada
September 2016 Gross Domestic Product (gdp) - Canada paul young cpa, cga
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - November 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - November 2019Annie Williams Real Estate Report - November 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - November 2019Jon Weaver
 
February 2010 Princeton Market Seminar
February 2010 Princeton Market SeminarFebruary 2010 Princeton Market Seminar
February 2010 Princeton Market SeminarWeichert Realtors
 
Ontario 2017 2018 budget – Pure Game of Smoke and Mirrors
Ontario 2017 2018 budget – Pure Game of Smoke and MirrorsOntario 2017 2018 budget – Pure Game of Smoke and Mirrors
Ontario 2017 2018 budget – Pure Game of Smoke and Mirrorspaul young cpa, cga
 
US and Global Economic Review & Forecast 2010
US and Global Economic Review & Forecast 2010US and Global Economic Review & Forecast 2010
US and Global Economic Review & Forecast 2010e-forecasting.com
 
Wages and employment – Canada – September 2016
Wages and employment – Canada – September 2016Wages and employment – Canada – September 2016
Wages and employment – Canada – September 2016paul young cpa, cga
 

Similaire à Q3 2016 Recap & Holiday Preview Webinar (20)

Q3 2016 Recap & US 2016 Holiday Preview
Q3 2016 Recap & US 2016 Holiday PreviewQ3 2016 Recap & US 2016 Holiday Preview
Q3 2016 Recap & US 2016 Holiday Preview
 
MEDA 2016 Annual Confernece: The Economist Who Loved Me
MEDA 2016 Annual Confernece: The Economist Who Loved MeMEDA 2016 Annual Confernece: The Economist Who Loved Me
MEDA 2016 Annual Confernece: The Economist Who Loved Me
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2019Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2019
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016
 
Wages and Employment – Canada – august 2016
Wages and Employment – Canada – august 2016Wages and Employment – Canada – august 2016
Wages and Employment – Canada – august 2016
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019
 
Q2 Recap & Back-to-School Webcast with Planalytics
Q2 Recap & Back-to-School Webcast with PlanalyticsQ2 Recap & Back-to-School Webcast with Planalytics
Q2 Recap & Back-to-School Webcast with Planalytics
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Jan 2016
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Jan 2016Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Jan 2016
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Jan 2016
 
Econ Chart Book December 2016
Econ Chart Book December 2016Econ Chart Book December 2016
Econ Chart Book December 2016
 
2016 Economic and Housing Real Estate Forecast-California Realtors Association
2016 Economic and Housing Real Estate Forecast-California Realtors Association2016 Economic and Housing Real Estate Forecast-California Realtors Association
2016 Economic and Housing Real Estate Forecast-California Realtors Association
 
Annie Williams Market Trends Nov-Dec 2013
Annie Williams Market Trends Nov-Dec 2013Annie Williams Market Trends Nov-Dec 2013
Annie Williams Market Trends Nov-Dec 2013
 
Annie Williams Market Report May-June 2016
Annie Williams Market Report May-June 2016Annie Williams Market Report May-June 2016
Annie Williams Market Report May-June 2016
 
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD U.S. Macro Forecast
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD U.S. Macro ForecastCUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD U.S. Macro Forecast
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD U.S. Macro Forecast
 
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016
 
September 2016 Gross Domestic Product (gdp) - Canada
September 2016 Gross Domestic Product (gdp) - Canada September 2016 Gross Domestic Product (gdp) - Canada
September 2016 Gross Domestic Product (gdp) - Canada
 
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - November 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - November 2019Annie Williams Real Estate Report - November 2019
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - November 2019
 
February 2010 Princeton Market Seminar
February 2010 Princeton Market SeminarFebruary 2010 Princeton Market Seminar
February 2010 Princeton Market Seminar
 
Ontario 2017 2018 budget – Pure Game of Smoke and Mirrors
Ontario 2017 2018 budget – Pure Game of Smoke and MirrorsOntario 2017 2018 budget – Pure Game of Smoke and Mirrors
Ontario 2017 2018 budget – Pure Game of Smoke and Mirrors
 
US and Global Economic Review & Forecast 2010
US and Global Economic Review & Forecast 2010US and Global Economic Review & Forecast 2010
US and Global Economic Review & Forecast 2010
 
Wages and employment – Canada – September 2016
Wages and employment – Canada – September 2016Wages and employment – Canada – September 2016
Wages and employment – Canada – September 2016
 

Plus de Deborah Weinswig

Retail Revolution: Disrupt or be Disrupted The Connected Mall
Retail Revolution: Disrupt or be Disrupted The Connected MallRetail Revolution: Disrupt or be Disrupted The Connected Mall
Retail Revolution: Disrupt or be Disrupted The Connected MallDeborah Weinswig
 
From Wall Street to Main Street
From Wall Street to Main StreetFrom Wall Street to Main Street
From Wall Street to Main StreetDeborah Weinswig
 
Global Supply Chain Innovation Summit, Shanghai
Global Supply Chain Innovation Summit, ShanghaiGlobal Supply Chain Innovation Summit, Shanghai
Global Supply Chain Innovation Summit, ShanghaiDeborah Weinswig
 
Investing in Women-Led Startups
Investing in Women-Led StartupsInvesting in Women-Led Startups
Investing in Women-Led StartupsDeborah Weinswig
 
Future of Retail: Is It Coming Apart at the Seams?
Future of Retail: Is It Coming Apart at the Seams?Future of Retail: Is It Coming Apart at the Seams?
Future of Retail: Is It Coming Apart at the Seams?Deborah Weinswig
 
HK Retail Expo 2016—Identifying Whitespaces in a Difficult Retail Environment
HK Retail Expo 2016—Identifying Whitespaces in a Difficult Retail EnvironmentHK Retail Expo 2016—Identifying Whitespaces in a Difficult Retail Environment
HK Retail Expo 2016—Identifying Whitespaces in a Difficult Retail EnvironmentDeborah Weinswig
 
Breakfast with Disruptors—Women-Led Startups With a Focus on Beauty and Fashion
Breakfast with Disruptors—Women-Led Startups With a Focus on Beauty and FashionBreakfast with Disruptors—Women-Led Startups With a Focus on Beauty and Fashion
Breakfast with Disruptors—Women-Led Startups With a Focus on Beauty and FashionDeborah Weinswig
 
ULI AP Summit—The Stores of the Future
ULI AP Summit—The Stores of the FutureULI AP Summit—The Stores of the Future
ULI AP Summit—The Stores of the FutureDeborah Weinswig
 
Planalytics—WEBCAST 2016 Back-To-School Outlook
Planalytics—WEBCAST 2016 Back-To-School OutlookPlanalytics—WEBCAST 2016 Back-To-School Outlook
Planalytics—WEBCAST 2016 Back-To-School OutlookDeborah Weinswig
 
ICSC—Texas New Techies: A Retail Startup Pitch Competition
ICSC—Texas New Techies: A Retail Startup Pitch CompetitionICSC—Texas New Techies: A Retail Startup Pitch Competition
ICSC—Texas New Techies: A Retail Startup Pitch CompetitionDeborah Weinswig
 
RECON Asia 2016—In-Store Technology: Bright Shiny Object or The New Normal?
RECON Asia 2016—In-Store Technology: Bright Shiny Object or The New Normal?RECON Asia 2016—In-Store Technology: Bright Shiny Object or The New Normal?
RECON Asia 2016—In-Store Technology: Bright Shiny Object or The New Normal?Deborah Weinswig
 
Emerge 2016—Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and Distribution
Emerge 2016—Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and DistributionEmerge 2016—Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and Distribution
Emerge 2016—Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and DistributionDeborah Weinswig
 
Make up in Paris - Top Ten Trends and Disruptors in Digital Beauty
Make up in Paris - Top Ten Trends and Disruptors in Digital BeautyMake up in Paris - Top Ten Trends and Disruptors in Digital Beauty
Make up in Paris - Top Ten Trends and Disruptors in Digital BeautyDeborah Weinswig
 
Rise - The Future of Digital Retail
Rise - The Future of Digital RetailRise - The Future of Digital Retail
Rise - The Future of Digital RetailDeborah Weinswig
 
Breakfast with the Disruptors - Supply Chain Startup Pitches
Breakfast with the Disruptors - Supply Chain Startup PitchesBreakfast with the Disruptors - Supply Chain Startup Pitches
Breakfast with the Disruptors - Supply Chain Startup PitchesDeborah Weinswig
 
US 2016 Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for Holiday
US 2016 Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for HolidayUS 2016 Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for Holiday
US 2016 Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for HolidayDeborah Weinswig
 
US 2016 Holiday Wrap-Up: Successful Season Driven by a Late-December Surge
US 2016 Holiday Wrap-Up: Successful Season Driven by a Late-December SurgeUS 2016 Holiday Wrap-Up: Successful Season Driven by a Late-December Surge
US 2016 Holiday Wrap-Up: Successful Season Driven by a Late-December SurgeDeborah Weinswig
 
The Future Customer and Opportunities for Startups
The Future Customer and Opportunities for Startups The Future Customer and Opportunities for Startups
The Future Customer and Opportunities for Startups Deborah Weinswig
 

Plus de Deborah Weinswig (20)

Retail Revolution: Disrupt or be Disrupted The Connected Mall
Retail Revolution: Disrupt or be Disrupted The Connected MallRetail Revolution: Disrupt or be Disrupted The Connected Mall
Retail Revolution: Disrupt or be Disrupted The Connected Mall
 
From Wall Street to Main Street
From Wall Street to Main StreetFrom Wall Street to Main Street
From Wall Street to Main Street
 
Global Supply Chain Innovation Summit, Shanghai
Global Supply Chain Innovation Summit, ShanghaiGlobal Supply Chain Innovation Summit, Shanghai
Global Supply Chain Innovation Summit, Shanghai
 
Investing in Women-Led Startups
Investing in Women-Led StartupsInvesting in Women-Led Startups
Investing in Women-Led Startups
 
Future of Retail: Is It Coming Apart at the Seams?
Future of Retail: Is It Coming Apart at the Seams?Future of Retail: Is It Coming Apart at the Seams?
Future of Retail: Is It Coming Apart at the Seams?
 
HK Retail Expo 2016—Identifying Whitespaces in a Difficult Retail Environment
HK Retail Expo 2016—Identifying Whitespaces in a Difficult Retail EnvironmentHK Retail Expo 2016—Identifying Whitespaces in a Difficult Retail Environment
HK Retail Expo 2016—Identifying Whitespaces in a Difficult Retail Environment
 
Breakfast with Disruptors—Women-Led Startups With a Focus on Beauty and Fashion
Breakfast with Disruptors—Women-Led Startups With a Focus on Beauty and FashionBreakfast with Disruptors—Women-Led Startups With a Focus on Beauty and Fashion
Breakfast with Disruptors—Women-Led Startups With a Focus on Beauty and Fashion
 
ULI AP Summit—The Stores of the Future
ULI AP Summit—The Stores of the FutureULI AP Summit—The Stores of the Future
ULI AP Summit—The Stores of the Future
 
Planalytics Q2 2016 Recap
Planalytics Q2 2016 RecapPlanalytics Q2 2016 Recap
Planalytics Q2 2016 Recap
 
Planalytics—WEBCAST 2016 Back-To-School Outlook
Planalytics—WEBCAST 2016 Back-To-School OutlookPlanalytics—WEBCAST 2016 Back-To-School Outlook
Planalytics—WEBCAST 2016 Back-To-School Outlook
 
ICSC—Texas New Techies: A Retail Startup Pitch Competition
ICSC—Texas New Techies: A Retail Startup Pitch CompetitionICSC—Texas New Techies: A Retail Startup Pitch Competition
ICSC—Texas New Techies: A Retail Startup Pitch Competition
 
RECON Asia 2016—In-Store Technology: Bright Shiny Object or The New Normal?
RECON Asia 2016—In-Store Technology: Bright Shiny Object or The New Normal?RECON Asia 2016—In-Store Technology: Bright Shiny Object or The New Normal?
RECON Asia 2016—In-Store Technology: Bright Shiny Object or The New Normal?
 
Golden Seeds Presentation
Golden Seeds PresentationGolden Seeds Presentation
Golden Seeds Presentation
 
Emerge 2016—Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and Distribution
Emerge 2016—Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and DistributionEmerge 2016—Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and Distribution
Emerge 2016—Eco-Friendly Fashion Production and Distribution
 
Make up in Paris - Top Ten Trends and Disruptors in Digital Beauty
Make up in Paris - Top Ten Trends and Disruptors in Digital BeautyMake up in Paris - Top Ten Trends and Disruptors in Digital Beauty
Make up in Paris - Top Ten Trends and Disruptors in Digital Beauty
 
Rise - The Future of Digital Retail
Rise - The Future of Digital RetailRise - The Future of Digital Retail
Rise - The Future of Digital Retail
 
Breakfast with the Disruptors - Supply Chain Startup Pitches
Breakfast with the Disruptors - Supply Chain Startup PitchesBreakfast with the Disruptors - Supply Chain Startup Pitches
Breakfast with the Disruptors - Supply Chain Startup Pitches
 
US 2016 Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for Holiday
US 2016 Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for HolidayUS 2016 Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for Holiday
US 2016 Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for Holiday
 
US 2016 Holiday Wrap-Up: Successful Season Driven by a Late-December Surge
US 2016 Holiday Wrap-Up: Successful Season Driven by a Late-December SurgeUS 2016 Holiday Wrap-Up: Successful Season Driven by a Late-December Surge
US 2016 Holiday Wrap-Up: Successful Season Driven by a Late-December Surge
 
The Future Customer and Opportunities for Startups
The Future Customer and Opportunities for Startups The Future Customer and Opportunities for Startups
The Future Customer and Opportunities for Startups
 

Dernier

Transform Your Outdoor Space: Landscaping with Plants in Singapore
Transform Your Outdoor Space: Landscaping with Plants in SingaporeTransform Your Outdoor Space: Landscaping with Plants in Singapore
Transform Your Outdoor Space: Landscaping with Plants in SingaporeThe Green Corner
 
Supermarket Floral Ad Roundup- Week 19 2024.pdf
Supermarket Floral Ad Roundup- Week 19 2024.pdfSupermarket Floral Ad Roundup- Week 19 2024.pdf
Supermarket Floral Ad Roundup- Week 19 2024.pdfKarliNelson4
 
The 2024 Prime Day Panel: From Preparation to Profit
The 2024 Prime Day Panel: From Preparation to ProfitThe 2024 Prime Day Panel: From Preparation to Profit
The 2024 Prime Day Panel: From Preparation to ProfitTinuiti
 
Hifi Agartala Escorts Service Girl ^ 9332606886, WhatsApp Anytime Agartala
Hifi Agartala Escorts Service Girl ^ 9332606886, WhatsApp Anytime AgartalaHifi Agartala Escorts Service Girl ^ 9332606886, WhatsApp Anytime Agartala
Hifi Agartala Escorts Service Girl ^ 9332606886, WhatsApp Anytime Agartalameghakumariji156
 
5CL-ADBA,5cladba, the best supplier in China
5CL-ADBA,5cladba, the best supplier in China5CL-ADBA,5cladba, the best supplier in China
5CL-ADBA,5cladba, the best supplier in Chinaamy56318795
 
Digital Business Strategy - How Food Brands Compete Through Technology
Digital Business Strategy - How Food Brands Compete Through TechnologyDigital Business Strategy - How Food Brands Compete Through Technology
Digital Business Strategy - How Food Brands Compete Through TechnologyJoanne Cabaero
 
Planting Seeds of Success and of Failure.pdf
Planting Seeds of Success and of Failure.pdfPlanting Seeds of Success and of Failure.pdf
Planting Seeds of Success and of Failure.pdfJasper Colin
 
Don’t Get Showroomed- Are you frustrated with showrooming?
Don’t Get Showroomed- Are you frustrated with showrooming?Don’t Get Showroomed- Are you frustrated with showrooming?
Don’t Get Showroomed- Are you frustrated with showrooming?Jasper Colin
 

Dernier (8)

Transform Your Outdoor Space: Landscaping with Plants in Singapore
Transform Your Outdoor Space: Landscaping with Plants in SingaporeTransform Your Outdoor Space: Landscaping with Plants in Singapore
Transform Your Outdoor Space: Landscaping with Plants in Singapore
 
Supermarket Floral Ad Roundup- Week 19 2024.pdf
Supermarket Floral Ad Roundup- Week 19 2024.pdfSupermarket Floral Ad Roundup- Week 19 2024.pdf
Supermarket Floral Ad Roundup- Week 19 2024.pdf
 
The 2024 Prime Day Panel: From Preparation to Profit
The 2024 Prime Day Panel: From Preparation to ProfitThe 2024 Prime Day Panel: From Preparation to Profit
The 2024 Prime Day Panel: From Preparation to Profit
 
Hifi Agartala Escorts Service Girl ^ 9332606886, WhatsApp Anytime Agartala
Hifi Agartala Escorts Service Girl ^ 9332606886, WhatsApp Anytime AgartalaHifi Agartala Escorts Service Girl ^ 9332606886, WhatsApp Anytime Agartala
Hifi Agartala Escorts Service Girl ^ 9332606886, WhatsApp Anytime Agartala
 
5CL-ADBA,5cladba, the best supplier in China
5CL-ADBA,5cladba, the best supplier in China5CL-ADBA,5cladba, the best supplier in China
5CL-ADBA,5cladba, the best supplier in China
 
Digital Business Strategy - How Food Brands Compete Through Technology
Digital Business Strategy - How Food Brands Compete Through TechnologyDigital Business Strategy - How Food Brands Compete Through Technology
Digital Business Strategy - How Food Brands Compete Through Technology
 
Planting Seeds of Success and of Failure.pdf
Planting Seeds of Success and of Failure.pdfPlanting Seeds of Success and of Failure.pdf
Planting Seeds of Success and of Failure.pdf
 
Don’t Get Showroomed- Are you frustrated with showrooming?
Don’t Get Showroomed- Are you frustrated with showrooming?Don’t Get Showroomed- Are you frustrated with showrooming?
Don’t Get Showroomed- Are you frustrated with showrooming?
 

Q3 2016 Recap & Holiday Preview Webinar

  • 1. Q3 2016 RECAP & HOLIDAY PREVIEW WEBCAST Evan Gold Executive Vice President Global Services Deborah Weinswig Executive Director Head of Global Retail & Technology
  • 2. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. WEBCAST: Holiday Homestretch Thursday, Dec 15 WEBCAST: Holiday Recap Thursday, Jan 5 JOIN US! 2
  • 4. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. • U.S. warmest in 20+ years – Warmer than normal • Canada warmer than LY – Warmer than normal 4 Q3 2016 (August - October): Warmer and Wetter Than LY and Normal • U.S. wettest since 2011 – Wetter than normal • Canada wetter than LY – Wetter than normal
  • 5. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. A Challenging Start to Q3 in August… 2016 2015 Weather Impact Aug. 2016 vs Prior Year APPAREL SPECIALTY -$198 Million AUGUST vs. NORMAL Retail Traffic: - 0.5% Business Impacts •Hot Coffee •Kids Pants •Fans •Suncare •Sports Drinks •Sandals WDD 5
  • 6. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. SEPTEMBER vs. NORMAL 2016 2015 Weather Impact Sep. 2016 vs Prior Year APPAREL SPECIALTY -$195 Million DIY / HOME CENTERS +$104 Million Warmth Continued Through September Retail Traffic: - 0.6% Business Impacts •Soup •Sweaters •Lawn & Garden •Allergy Relief •Grilling & Propane WDD 6
  • 7. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Regional Opportunities During October Last October, the East had the best opportunities for fall sales while markets west of the Mississippi River were challenged by warmer temperatures. 7 OCTOBER 2016- TEMPERATURE VS. LY October 2-8 October 9-15 October 16-22 OCTOBER 2015 VS. NORMAL October 22-29
  • 8. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. October 2016 Retail Traffic: -0.5% Business Impacts •Pants •Fleece •Pest Control 8 WDD •Rainwear •Lawn Care Halloween Monday, October 31st Temperature vs Normal Opportunities Were Temporal As Well Temperature vs LY Weather Impact Oct. 2016 vs Prior Year APPAREL SPECIALTY -$176 Million
  • 9. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Q3 2016 Recap: Hurricane Hermine (August 28 – September 3) 9 • First hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since 2005 • Made landfall near Tallahassee, FL on September 2nd as a Category 1 hurricane • Was downgraded to a tropical storm and moved through Georgia and the Carolinas • High surf, localized storm surge, and strong rip currents along the East Coast Labor Day weekend
  • 10. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Q3 2016 Recap: Hurricane Matthew (September 28-October 10) • Made landfall near Charleston, SC on October 8th as a Category 1 hurricane • Over 2 million power outages and over 30 fatalities in the U.S. Consumer activity in advance of the storm combined with the specific path of Matthew helped temper the overall severity of the impact. Post-storm purchasing in impacted areas spiked for pumps, chainsaws, tarps, as well as hardware and materials to repair property damage. 10 PUMPS +22% SE Atlantic Region Month-to-Date vs. LY WATER +7% Eastern Florida Week ending 10/8 vs. LY
  • 11. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 US 2016 HOLIDAY PREVIEW 11 DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY OCTOBER 28, 2016
  • 12. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Agenda 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop 2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016 3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday Growth 4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season 5. E-Commerce: What Do Consumers Respond To? 6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up Slightly; Clear Shift Toward E- Commerce 7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will Remain Popular 12 8. Black Friday: Could It Be Dethroned? 9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More Early-Bird Online Shoppers in the US 10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar 11. Presidential Election Impact 12. Holiday Shopping Themes 13. Holiday Fashion Trends 14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables 15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s Hot Holiday Toys List
  • 13. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop Indicator Period 2016 2015 YoY % Change Impact on Consumption Gas Price (USD per Gallon) Sep $2.33 $2.46 (5.28)% + Unemployment Rate Sep 5.0% 5.1% (0.1)% + Wage Growth Sep $21.68 21.63% 2.6% + Disposable Income Aug 0.1% 0.4% (0.3)% – S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index Aug 188.2 179.0 5.1% + University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment Sep 91.2 87.2 4.6% + Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics/US Energy Information Administration/US Bureau of Economic Analysis/S&P Dow Jones/University of Michigan 13
  • 14. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop • Gas prices were down more than 5% year over year in September • Consumer confidence hit 91.2 in September, up 4.6% year over year • The US unemployment rate was 5% in September, 0.1% lower than in September 2015 • Private sector wages rose by 2.6% year over year in September • Disposable income growth softened to 0.1% in August (adjusting for inflation), following a 0.3% increase in the prior month • Home prices continued to rise moderately, supported by low mortgage rates and a shortage of supply • Inflation/deflation – Apparel prices are below the average inflationary level – Food prices flattened out in August, reaching levels unseen since 2009/2010 14 Source: US Energy Information Administration/International Monetary Fund/Rhodium Group
  • 15. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumers Slightly More Optimistic as Gas Prices Level Off • Gas prices were $2.33 per gallon in September, down more than 5% from a year ago • Low gas prices continue to curb the inflation rate $2.33 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Retail Gasoline Prices (USD per Gal.) 15 Source: US Energy Information Administration
  • 16. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Sentiment Climbs in September • The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment hit 91.2 in September, up 4.6% year over year and up from 89.8 in August • Confidence edged upward due to gains among higher-income households 91.2 30 50 70 90 110 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment 16 Through September 30, 2016 Source: University of Michigan
  • 17. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: The Labor Market Stands Firm • The US unemployment rate was 5% in September, edging up from 4.9% in August. – Job gains were seen in professional and technical services, financial activities and healthcare. • Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose by 2.6% year over year in September, slightly higher than August’s 2.4% increase to $25.79 5.0% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 US Unemployment Rate 2.6% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY % Change) 17 Through September 30, 2016; seasonally adjusted Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 18. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Savings Rate Falls as Disposable Income Increases • Disposable income growth softened to 0.1% in August (after adjusting for inflation), following a 0.3% increase in the prior month • The US personal savings rate remains below levels seen at the start of 2016; it reached a three-month low of 5.7% in August, suggesting that many consumers are in a good place and have money to spend $12,697 $808 $0 $400 $800 $1,200 $1,600 $11,000 $11,400 $11,800 $12,200 $12,600 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Real Disposable Income Personal Savings Real Disposable Income (Left Axis) and Personal Savings (Right Axis) 18 Through August 30, 2016; seasonally adjusted Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 19. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Home Price Gains Continue in August • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index increased by 5.1% in August • Home prices continued to rise moderately, supported by low mortgage rates and a shortage of supply – The number of homes for sale has fallen by 7% from a year ago in August S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index 188.2 100 120 140 160 180 200 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 19 Source: S&P Dow Jones
  • 20. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Consumer Prices Rose Steadily in August • The core PCE deflator, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month over month in August and was up 1.7% from August 2015 • Consumer prices have grown in six of the past seven months, driven by higher oil and housing prices 1.7 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Core Headline 20 PCE Deflator (YoY % Change) Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 21. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Retail Sales Point to Confident Consumers • US retail sales excluding autos posted solid growth in September, up 0.5% from August and up 2.7% from the year-ago period – Nonstore retailers’ sales rose by 10.6% year over year – Restaurant and bars’ sales rose by 6.1% year over year – Department stores declined 6.4%, continuing the recent trend of underperformance 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12 13 14 15 16 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 21 Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos Jan 2012–Sep 2016 (YoY % Change) Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos Oct 2015–Sep 2016 (YoY % Change) Source: US Census Bureau 2.7% 2.7%
  • 22. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016 We are optimistic about the prospects for holiday sales this year and believe there could be upside to projections • We estimate that holiday sales from November through December will grow by 3% to 4% versus 3.2% last year and an average increase of 2.5% over the last 10 years • The NRF is projecting holiday sales growth of 3.6%. On average, industry groups are forecasting growth of roughly 3.7% for the period • Positive factors include a favorable macro backdrop, calendar and weather forecast 22
  • 23. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 $529 $554 $569 $585 $608 $626 $645–$651 5.2%% 4.6% 2.7% 2.7% 4.1% 3.2% 3%–4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E GrowthRate HolidayRetailSales(USDBil.) Holiday Retail Sales Growth Rate Source: National Retail Federation (NRF)/Fung Global Retail & Technology 23 2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016
  • 24. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday Growth • Online sales were up 15.8% in the second quarter, and accounted for 8.1% of total retail sales • We expect online sales to increase by 7% to 10% over the holiday season ($91.6B), and to make up 10.7% of total holiday sales – One in three shoppers (35%) made more than half their holiday purchases online in 2015 15.3% 15.5% 17.4% 15.7% 16.4% 18.2% 17.4% 16.0% 15.5% 15.8% 15.8% 14.2% 14.8% 14.2% 15.2% 15.1% 15.5% 15.8% US Retail E-Commerce Sales Growth, YoY % Change (1Q12–2Q16) 29% 30% 34% 31% 33% 36% 39% 40% 44% 46% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percent of US Holiday Shopping Done Online (2006–2015) 24 Seasonally adjusted Source: US Census Bureau Seasonally adjusted Source: NRF
  • 25. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season • Mobile commerce was up 59% YoY to $5 billion during the 2015 holiday season (comScore) – The majority of search is now mobile: 56% of searches that resulted in a click-through to a top retail site were conducted on a smartphone or tablet during the holiday season • Spending via mobile devices is expected to increase by 45.2%, to hit $20 billion in 2016 (CTA) – Smartphone m-commerce growth will exceed tablets’ growth for the first time in 2016 25 Source: Signal 51.7% 40.8% 34.0% 28.7% 24.6% 21.6% 46.6% 58.0% 65.0% 70.5% 74.8% 77.9% 1.70% 1.30% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.50% 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Tablet Smartphone Other $206.5 $267.3 $335.8$80.9 $115.9 $156.4 US Retail M-Commerce Sales: Total (USD Bil.) and Share, by Device (%)
  • 26. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 5. E-Commerce: What Will We See from Retailers? • Retailers are offering a variety of online and in- store ordering and delivery options – 60% of retailers will provide both free shipping and free returns (NRF) – Buy online, pick up in store / Buy online, return in store • Save on shipping costs • Add-on purchases • The most profitable online promotions last holiday season – Online-only sales, limited-time offers and free shipping (NRF) 26 Source: NRF, Holiday Survey
  • 27. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up Slightly; Clear Shift Toward E-Commerce • Retail sector seasonal hiring: 640,000–690,000 versus 675,300 last year – Transportation, warehouse and entertainment sectors will see increases • JCPenney plans 33.3% increase in seasonal workforce – 2,000 employees to focus on fulfilling online orders • Amazon plans 20.1% increase in seasonal workforce – 120,000 seasonal jobs for customer fulfillment and customer service Number of Seasonal Hires 2015 2016 YoY % Change UPS 95,000 95,000 0% Macy’s 85,000 83,000 (2.4)% Home Depot 80,000 80,000 0% Amazon 100,000 120,000 20% Target 70,000 77,500 10.7% Kohl’s 79,160 69,000 (12.8)% FedEx 55,000 50,000 (9.1)% JCPenney 30,000 40,000 33.3% Lowe’s 40,000 46,000 15% Bon-Ton 13,000 13,000 0% TOTAL 647,160 673,500 4% 27 Source: Company reports
  • 28. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will Remain Popular • The trend to open early on ‘Gray Thursday’ will continue this year, but at a slower rate than recent years – 49% of retailers plan to open on Thanksgiving, up 1% from last year – 59% of Shopping visits will be on mobile • Earlier online promotions to stay competitive – Walmart and Target made majority Black Friday deals available online the morning of Thanksgiving last year • Retailers staying home for Thanksgiving to align with corporate values – Costco, Home Depot, REI, Office Depot, Mall of America, CBL & Associates, T.J. Maxx 28
  • 29. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 8. Black Friday: #OptOut Thanksgiving 29
  • 30. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 8. Black Friday: Retailers Open on Thanksgiving Last Year 30
  • 31. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 8. Black Friday: REI With 2nd #OptOutside Campaign • Generous employee benefit and external display of the brand’s principles – Encouraging consumers to spend time outdoors – Younger consumers are more inclined to support a company that illustrates social impact with specific actions • With #OptOutside, REI will ask people to share what they are doing on Black Friday via social media 31
  • 32. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 8. Black Friday: No Longer the Biggest Shopping Holiday of the Season • Black Friday’s significance has waned in recent years – Promotional activity has increased year-round • Consumers looking for bargains and spreading out their spending – Almost half of shoppers will begin shopping by November 1 • Friday, December 23, is set to be the biggest shopping day of the season – That Friday is the day before Chanukah begins and two days before Christmas 2016: Top 5 Expected Biggest Shopping Days (Sales) 2016: Top 5 Expected Busiest Shopping Days (Shopper Visits) 1. Friday, December 23 1. Saturday, December 17 2. Saturday, December 17 2. Black Friday, November 25 3. Black Friday, November 25 3. Friday, December 23 4. Thursday, December 22 4. Saturday, December 10 5. Wednesday, December 21 5. Monday, December 26 32 Source: RetailNext
  • 33. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More Early-Bird Online Shoppers in the US • Singles’ Day (Nov. 11) is China’s equivalent to Cyber Monday. In 2015, e-commerce giant Alibaba saw $14.3 billion in transactions, up 60% from 2014 – Sales in the US reached $1.4 billion in 2015 (Adobe) – 180 US retailers had exclusive offerings • Globalization is a top priority – Expanding international brand offerings – Katy Perry is a global ambassador • We expect $20 billion in sales this year, a 40% year-over-year increase – US sales to hit $2.5 billion, up 50% 33
  • 34. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar • There are two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year: 31 days compared with 29 last year 34 Election Day Singles’ Day Thanksgiving Black Friday Cyber Monday Giving Tuesday Green Monday Chanukah (Sundown–Sundown, Dec 24–Jan 1) Super Saturday Christmas
  • 35. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 • Super Saturday falls on December 24, one day before Christmas and the day Chanukah begins. Shoppers are likely to make last-minute gift purchases in stores rather than online on Super Saturday. • Shoppers will also take advantage of Free Shipping Day on December 16, which guarantees delivery by Christmas Eve 35 10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
  • 36. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 11. Presidential Election Impact: Could Keep the Lid on Spending Early in the Season • Political ads driving up the cost of advertising – Political advertising spend is up 20% since the last election, and digital spend is up 700% – Expect delays in holiday promotions • Retail store foot traffic and sales are likely to be negatively impacted in the weeks leading up to Election Day – Shoppers are preoccupied with the election – With uncertainty abounding, consumers tend to put shopping trips on hold • Postelection bounce back as shoppers release pent-up demand after November 8 – We expect November sales to be as strong as last year 36
  • 37. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 12. Holiday Shopping Themes • Gift cards continue to be an attractive option – Millennials are sensitive to cybersecurity issues and identity fraud; they look for safer digital payment methods – Two-thirds of shoppers (63%) purchased at least one gift card last year, up 2% from the previous year (NRF) • Travel and entertainment – Almost half of overall holiday spending (42%) will accrue to travel and entertainment – Millennials preference for gifts that entail experience driving growth • Subscription services as gifts – 1,450% growth in visits to those websites; popular gifts include Birchbox and Dollar Shave Club subscriptions 37
  • 38. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 13. Holiday Fashion Trends Standout fashion trends for the 2016 holiday season • Athleisure is changing shape – A more refined, multifunctional look • 70s style and athleisure trend in shoes – Birkenstocks, Nike Jordan, Chaco • Accessories – Backpacks, smart jewelry and watches • Denim and jeans strengthen, leggings trend wanes 38 Source: Forever 21 Source: Instagram, @Forever 21
  • 39. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables • Tech items will remain popular – 68% of consumers will buy electronics this holiday season (CTA) – Those gifting electronics plan to spend 3.1% more on them than last year • Personal assistants – Amazon Echo – Google Assistant • Virtual reality – Sony PlayStation VR – Google Cardboard • Wearables – Apple Watch Series 2 – Fitbit Charge 2 39
  • 40. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s Hot Toys for 2016 • US toy sales grew by 6.7% in 2015 to $19.4 billion (NPD Group) • Toys that stimulate the mind – Fisher-Price’s Think & Learn Code-a-pillar – Cozmo, a robot with artificial intelligence • Movie releases to drive sales – Trolls (November 4) – Moana (November 23) – Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (December 16) 40
  • 42. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Temperaturevs.LastYearPrecipitationvs.LastYear November 2015: Warmest retail November since 1999 November 2016 Outlook: Weather-Driven Demand vs. LY SECTOR IMPACTS: +$56 million for APPAREL SPECIALTY -$169 million for DIY/HOME CENTERS CATEGORY IMPACTS: +15% WDD for BOOTS +9% WDD for HEATERS +7% WDD for FLEECE +1% WDD for SOUP 42
  • 43. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Black Friday (Week 43): Colder Temperatures vs LY in the East Will Support Seasonal Demand Temperature vs. LY Precipitation vs. LY • Colder temperatures across the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Southeast will drive demand for seasonal goods. A drier trend in the Plains will be positive for traffic. • For reference, in 2015, Thanksgiving Day was warmest since 2012 and wettest since 2010. The Black Friday weekend was warmest since 2012 and wettest since 2000. 43
  • 44. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Heaters +32% WDD Atlanta Rainwear +20% WDD New York City Sweaters -4% WDD Houston Pants +4% WDD Nashville Firewood -13% WDD Denver Soup -5% WDD Seattle Ice Melt +32% WDD Calgary Outerwear +7% WDD Toronto Boots +6% WDD Winnipeg Long Sleeve Shirts -3% WDD Los Angeles Retail Apparel Traffic +0.1% WDD North America November 2016: Weather Driven Demand Shopping Expectations vs. LY 44
  • 45. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Temperaturevs.LastYearPrecipitationvs.LastYear December 2015: Warmest retail December since 1960 December 2016 Outlook: Weather-Driven Demand vs. LY SECTOR IMPACTS: +$275 million for APPAREL STORES -$876 million for DIY/HOME CENTERS CATEGORY IMPACTS: +33% WDD for SNOW REMOVAL +20% WDD for FIREWOOD +9% WDD for HATS & GLOVES +5% WDD for AUTOMOTIVE BATTERIES 45
  • 46. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. December 2016: Weather Driven Demand Shopping Expectations vs. LY Rainwear +27% WDD Jacksonville Automotive Batteries +12% WDD Chicago Heating +30% WDD Dallas Fleece -2% WDD San Francisco Firewood -3% WDD Denver Retail Apparel Traffic +0.5% WDD North America Boots +21% WDD Toronto Outerwear +9% WDD Edmonton Hats, Gloves, & Scarves +2% WDD Saskatoon Snow Throwers +44% WDD Boston 46
  • 47. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Legend Inches Legend Inches • December 2015 was the warmest in 121 years. • While precipitation was the most in 121 years, snowfall ended 41% below normal. • December 2016 is expected to bring increased snowfall to the Midwest and Northeast. • Weather-driven risk is likely to be confined to the Mountain West. U.S. December Snowfall Outlook: Increased Snowfall Midwest, Northeast vs LY THIS YEAR: December 2016 Outlook vs LY LAST YEAR: December 2015 Observed Amounts (Inches) 47
  • 48. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Legend Centimeters Canada December Snowfall Outlook: Higher Snowfall Amounts Expected for Most vs. LY LAST YEAR: December 2015 Observed Amounts (Centimeters) Legend Centimeters THIS YEAR: December 2016 Outlook vs LY • December 2015 brought much warmer conditions, particularly for interior and eastern provinces. • Total snowfall was 57% above prior year but 25% below normal. • December 2016 is expected to bring a much more robust demand environment for snow throwers and pushers. 48 Centimeters
  • 49. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Snowfall: Custom Automated Snow & Ice Reports 49
  • 50. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 2016 Holiday Shopping Season: Key Takeaways 1.Sales Growth is Expected • Favorable macro environment and calendar 2.The Consumer is More Connected Than Ever Before • Omnichannel is here while AI, VR, and IoT Continues to Push the Boundaries of Traditional Retail 3.Colder November and December vs. LY Will Support Seasonal Categories • Expect More Traffic-Limiting Events in December vs. LY 50
  • 51. THANK YOU! WEBCAST @FungRetailTech @Planalytics Evan Gold Executive Vice President Global Services Deborah Weinswig Executive Director Head of Global Retail & Technology