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Q3 2016 RECAP & HOLIDAY PREVIEW
WEBCAST
Evan Gold
Executive Vice President
Global Services
Deborah Weinswig
Managing Director
Head of Global Retail & Technology
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
WEBCAST:
Holiday Homestretch
Thursday, Dec 15
WEBCAST:
Holiday Recap
Thursday, Jan 5
JOIN US!
2
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
US 2016 HOLIDAY
PREVIEW
3
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR
FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
November 9, 2016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
Agenda
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop
2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday
2016
3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday
Growth
4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season
5. E-Commerce: What Do Consumers
Respond To?
6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up
Slightly; Clear Shift Toward E-
Commerce
7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will
Remain Popular
4
8. Black Friday: Could It Be
Dethroned?
9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More
Early-Bird Online Shoppers in the US
10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
11. Presidential Election Impact
12. Holiday Shopping Themes
13. Holiday Fashion Trends
14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables
15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s
Hot Toys for 2016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop
Indicator Period 2016 2015
YoY %
Change
Impact on
Consumption
Gas Price (USD per Gallon) Nov $2.23 $2.24 (0.4)% +
Unemployment Rate Oct 4.9% 5.0% (0.1)% +
Average Hourly Earnings Oct $25.92 $25.21 2.8% +
Real Disposable Income
($Bil.)
Sep 12,694.1 12,427.6 2.1% +
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
20-City Composite Home
Price SA Index
Aug 188.2 179.0 5.1% +
University of Michigan Index
of Consumer Sentiment
Oct 87.2 90.0 (3.1)% –
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics/US Energy Information Administration/US Bureau of Economic Analysis/S&P Dow Jones/University of Michigan
5
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop
• Gas prices were down 0.4% year over year in the 1st week of November
• Consumer confidence stood at 87.2 in October, down 3.1% year over year
• The US unemployment rate was 4.9% in October, 0.1% lower than in October
2015
• Private sector wages rose by 2.8% year over year in October
• Real disposable income grew 0.1% month over month in September, after
remaining virtually unchanged in the prior month
• Home prices continued to rise moderately, supported by low mortgage rates
and a shortage of supply
• Inflation/deflation
– Apparel prices are below the average inflationary level
– Food prices fell by 0.1% month over month and by 1.7% year over year in September
6
Source: US Energy Information Administration/International Monetary Fund/Rhodium Group
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumers Slightly More
Optimistic as Gas Prices Level Off
• Gas prices were $2.33 per gallon in September, down more than 5% from a
year ago
• Low gas prices continue to curb the inflation rate
Nov 7 2016,
$2.23
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Nov 14 May 15 Nov 15 May 16 Nov 16
Retail Gasoline Prices (USD per Gal.)
7
Source: US Energy Information Administration
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Sentiment
Slides in October
• The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at 87.2 in
October, down 3.1% year over year and 4.4% month over month.
• Consumer sentiment slid in October due to a temporary bout of uncertainty
caused by the election and less favorable prospects for the national
economy, with half of all consumers anticipating an economic downturn
sometime in the next five years.
87.2
30
50
70
90
110
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
8
Through September 30, 2016
Source: University of Michigan
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: The Labor Market Stands Firm
• The US unemployment rate was 4.9% in October, edging down from 5.0% in
September.
– Job gains were seen in professional and technical services, financial activities
and healthcare.
• Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose by 2.8% year over
year to $25.92 in October.
4.9%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16
US Unemployment Rate
2.8%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY % Change)
9
Through September 30, 2016; seasonally adjusted
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Savings Rate Falls as
Disposable Income Increases
• Real disposable income was flat month over month in September, but up 2.1%
year over year. The figure stayed flat for the second consecutive month.
• The US personal savings rate remains below levels seen at the start of 2016,
reaching 5.7% in September, suggesting that many consumers are in a good
place and have money to spend
Real Disposable Income (Left Axis) and Personal Savings (Right Axis)
10
Through August 30, 2016; seasonally adjusted
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
12,694.1
797.8
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
11,000.0
11,500.0
12,000.0
12,500.0
13,000.0
Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
Real Disposable Income Personal Savings
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Home Price Gains Continue in
August
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price SA Index
increased by 5.1% in August
• Home prices continued to rise moderately, supported by low mortgage rates
and a shortage of supply
– The number of homes for sale has fallen by almost 7% from a year ago in August
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price SA Index
188.2
100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
11
Source: S&P Dow Jones
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Consumer Prices Rose
Steadily in September
• The core PCE deflator, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.1%
month over month in September and was up 1.7% from September 2015
• Consumer prices have been driven higher by oil price rebound and rising
housing prices
12
PCE Deflator (YoY % Change)
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
1.2
1.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
Headline Core
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Retail Sales Point to Confident
Consumers
• US retail sales excluding autos posted solid growth in September, up 0.5% from
August and up 2.7% from the year-ago period
– Nonstore retailers’ sales rose by 10.6% year over year
– Restaurant and bars’ sales rose by 6.1% year over year
– Department stores declined 6.4%, continuing the recent trend of underperformance
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
12 13 14 15 16
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
13
Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos
Jan 2012–Sep 2016 (YoY % Change)
Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos
Oct 2015–Sep 2016 (YoY % Change)
Source: US Census Bureau
2.7%
2.7%
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016
We are optimistic about the prospects for holiday sales this year and believe
there could be upside to projections
• We estimate that holiday sales from November through December will grow by
3% to 4% versus 3.2% last year and an average increase of 2.5% over the last
10 years
• The NRF is projecting holiday sales growth of 3.6%. On average, industry groups
are forecasting growth of roughly 3.7% for the period
• Positive factors include a favorable macro backdrop, calendar and weather
forecast
14
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
$529
$554
$569
$585
$608
$626
$645–$651
5.2%%
4.6%
2.7% 2.7%
4.1%
3.2%
3%–4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
GrowthRate
HolidayRetailSales(USDBil.)
Holiday Retail Sales Growth Rate
Source: National Retail Federation (NRF)/Fung Global Retail & Technology
15
2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday Growth
• Online sales were up 15.8% in the second quarter, and accounted for 8.1% of
total retail sales
• We expect online sales to increase by 7% to 10% over the holiday season
($91.6B), and to make up 10.7% of total holiday sales
– One in three shoppers (35%) made more than half their holiday purchases online in
2015
15.3%
15.5%
17.4%
15.7%
16.4%
18.2%
17.4%
16.0% 15.5%
15.8% 15.8%
14.2%
14.8%
14.2%
15.2%
15.1%
15.5%
15.8%
US Retail E-Commerce Sales Growth, YoY % Change (1Q12–2Q16)
29%
30%
34%
31%
33%
36%
39% 40%
44%
46%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent of US Holiday Shopping Done Online (2006–2015)
16
Seasonally adjusted
Source: US Census Bureau
Seasonally adjusted
Source: NRF
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season
• Mobile commerce was up 59% YoY to $5 billion during the 2015 holiday season
(comScore)
– The majority of search is now mobile: 56% of searches that resulted in a click-through to
a top retail site were conducted on a smartphone or tablet during the holiday season
• Spending via mobile devices is expected to increase by 45.2%, to hit $20 billion in
2016 (CTA)
– Smartphone m-commerce growth will exceed tablets’ growth for the first time in 2016
17
Source: Signal
51.7%
40.8% 34.0% 28.7% 24.6% 21.6%
46.6% 58.0% 65.0% 70.5% 74.8% 77.9%
1.70% 1.30% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.50%
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Tablet Smartphone Other
$206.5 $267.3 $335.8$80.9 $115.9 $156.4
US Retail M-Commerce Sales: Total (USD Bil.) and Share, by
Device (%)
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
5. E-Commerce: What Will We See from Retailers?
• Retailers are offering a variety of online and in-
store ordering and delivery options
– 60% of retailers will provide both free
shipping and free returns (NRF)
– Buy online, pick up in store / Buy online,
return in store
• Save on shipping costs
• Add-on purchases
• The most profitable online promotions last holiday
season
– Online-only sales, limited-time offers and
free shipping (NRF)
18
Source: NRF, Holiday Survey
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up Slightly; Clear Shift
Toward E-Commerce
• Retail sector seasonal hiring:
640,000–690,000 versus 675,300 last
year
– Transportation, warehouse and
entertainment sectors will see
increases
• JCPenney plans 33.3% increase in
seasonal workforce
– 2,000 employees to focus on fulfilling
online orders
• Amazon plans 20.1% increase in
seasonal workforce
– 120,000 seasonal jobs for customer
fulfillment and customer service
Number of Seasonal Hires
2015 2016
YoY %
Change
UPS 95,000 95,000 0%
Macy’s 85,000 83,000 (2.4)%
Home Depot 80,000 80,000 0%
Amazon 100,000 120,000 20%
Target 70,000 77,500 10.7%
Kohl’s 79,160 69,000 (12.8)%
FedEx 55,000 50,000 (9.1)%
JCPenney 30,000 40,000 33.3%
Lowe’s 40,000 46,000 15%
Bon-Ton 13,000 13,000 0%
TOTAL 647,160 673,500 4%
19
Source: Company reports
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will Remain Popular
• The trend to open early on ‘Gray Thursday’ will continue this
year, but at a slower rate than recent years
– 49% of retailers plan to open on Thanksgiving, up 1% from last
year
– 59% of Shopping visits will be on mobile
• Earlier online promotions to stay competitive
– Walmart and Target made majority Black Friday deals available
online the morning of Thanksgiving last year
• Retailers staying home for Thanksgiving to align with
corporate values
– Costco, Home Depot, REI, Office Depot, Mall of America, CBL &
Associates, T.J. Maxx
20
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: #OptOut Thanksgiving
21
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: Retailers Open on Thanksgiving Last Year
22
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: REI With 2nd #OptOutside Campaign
• Generous employee benefit and external display of the brand’s
principles
– Encouraging consumers to spend time outdoors
– Younger consumers are more inclined to support a
company that illustrates social impact with specific actions
• With #OptOutside, REI will ask people to share what they are
doing on Black Friday via social media
23
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: No Longer the Biggest
Shopping Holiday of the Season
• Black Friday’s significance has
waned in recent years
– Promotional activity has increased
year-round
• Consumers looking for bargains and
spreading out their spending
– Almost half of shoppers will begin
shopping by November 1
• Friday, December 23, is set to be the
biggest shopping day of the season
– That Friday is the day before
Chanukah begins and two days
before Christmas
2016: Top 5 Expected Biggest
Shopping Days (Sales)
2016: Top 5 Expected Busiest
Shopping Days (Shopper Visits)
1. Friday, December 23 1. Saturday, December 17
2. Saturday, December 17 2. Black Friday, November 25
3. Black Friday, November 25 3. Friday, December 23
4. Thursday, December 22 4. Saturday, December 10
5. Wednesday, December 21 5. Monday, December 26
24
Source: RetailNext
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More Early-Bird Online
Shoppers in the US
• Singles’ Day (Nov. 11) is China’s equivalent
to Cyber Monday. In 2015, e-commerce
giant Alibaba saw $14.3 billion in
transactions, up 60% from 2014
– Sales in the US reached $1.4 billion in 2015, up
14% from 2014 (Adobe)
– 180 US retailers had exclusive offerings
• Globalization is a top priority
– Expanding international brand offerings
– Katy Perry is a global ambassador
• We expect $20 billion in sales this year, a
40% year-over-year increase
– US sales expected to hit $2.5 billion
25
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
• There are two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year:
31 days compared with 29 last year
26
Election Day
Singles’ Day
Thanksgiving
Black Friday
Cyber Monday
Giving Tuesday
Green Monday
Chanukah
(Sundown–Sundown,
Dec 24–Jan 1)
Super Saturday
Christmas
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
• Super Saturday falls on December 24, one day before Christmas and the day
Chanukah begins. Shoppers are likely to make last-minute gift purchases in
stores rather than online on Super Saturday.
• Shoppers will also take advantage of Free Shipping Day on December 16,
which guarantees delivery by Christmas Eve
27
10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
11. Presidential Election Impact: Could Keep the Lid on
Spending Early in the Season
• Political ads driving up the cost of
advertising
– Political advertising spend is up 20% since the
last election, and digital spend is up 700%
– Expect delays in holiday promotions
• Retail store foot traffic and sales are
likely to be negatively impacted in the
weeks leading up to Election Day
– Shoppers are preoccupied with the election
– With uncertainty abounding, consumers tend
to put shopping trips on hold
• Postelection bounce back as shoppers
release pent-up demand after
November 8
– We expect November sales to be as strong
as last year
28
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
12. Holiday Shopping Themes
• Gift cards continue to be an attractive option
– Millennials are sensitive to cybersecurity issues
and identity fraud; they look for safer digital
payment methods
– Two-thirds of shoppers (63%) purchased at least
one gift card last year, up 2% from the previous
year (NRF)
• Travel and entertainment
– Almost half of overall holiday spending (42%)
will accrue to travel and entertainment
– Millennials preference for gifts that entail
experience driving growth
• Subscription services as gifts
– 1,450% growth in visits to those websites;
popular gifts include Birchbox and Dollar Shave
Club subscriptions
29
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
13. Holiday Fashion Trends
Standout fashion trends for the 2016 holiday
season
• Athleisure is changing shape
– A more refined, multifunctional look
• 70s style and athleisure trend in shoes
– Birkenstocks, Nike Jordan, Chaco
• Accessories
– Backpacks, smart jewelry and watches
• Denim and jeans strengthen, leggings trend
wanes
30
Source: Forever 21
Source: Instagram, @Forever 21
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables
• Tech items will remain popular
– 68% of consumers will buy electronics this
holiday season (CTA)
– Those gifting electronics plan to spend
3.1% more on them than last year
• Personal assistants
– Amazon Echo
– Google Assistant
• Virtual reality
– Sony PlayStation VR
– Google Cardboard
• Wearables
– Apple Watch Series 2
– Fitbit Charge 2
31
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s Hot Toys for 2016
• US toy sales grew by 6.7% in 2015 to
$19.4 billion (NPD Group)
• Toys that stimulate the mind
– Fisher-Price’s Think & Learn Code-a-pillar
– Cozmo, a robot with artificial
intelligence
• Movie releases to drive sales
– Trolls (November 4)
– Moana (November 23)
– Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
(December 16)
32
WEATHER INSIGHTS
Q3 2016 RECAP
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
• U.S. warmest in 20+ years
– Warmer than normal
• Canada warmer than LY
– Warmer than normal
34
Q3 2016 (August - October):
Warmer and Wetter Than LY and Normal
• U.S. wettest since 2011
– Wetter than normal
• Canada wetter than LY
– Wetter than normal
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
A Challenging Start to Q3 in August…
2016 2015
Weather Impact
Aug. 2016 vs Prior Year
APPAREL SPECIALTY
-$198 Million
AUGUST vs. NORMAL
Retail Traffic: - 0.5% Business Impacts
•Hot Coffee
•Kids Pants
•Fans
•Suncare
•Sports Drinks
•Sandals
WDD
35
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
SEPTEMBER vs. NORMAL
2016 2015
Weather Impact
Sep. 2016 vs Prior Year
APPAREL SPECIALTY
-$195 Million
DIY / HOME CENTERS
+$104 Million
Warmth Continued Through September
Retail Traffic: - 0.6% Business Impacts
•Soup
•Sweaters
•Lawn & Garden
•Allergy Relief
•Grilling & Propane
WDD
36
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Regional Opportunities During October
Last October, the East
had the best
opportunities for fall
sales while markets west
of the Mississippi River
were challenged by
warmer temperatures.
37
OCTOBER 2016- TEMPERATURE VS. LY
October 2-8 October 9-15 October 16-22 October 22-29
OCTOBER vs. NORMAL
2016 2015
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
October 2016
Retail Traffic: -0.5% Business Impacts
•Pants
•Fleece
•Pest Control
38
WDD
•Rainwear
•Lawn Care
Halloween
Monday, October 31st
Temperature vs Normal
Opportunities Were Temporal As Well
Temperature vs LY
Weather Impact
Oct. 2016 vs Prior Year
APPAREL SPECIALTY
-$176 Million
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Q3 2016 Recap:
Hurricane Hermine (August 28 – September 3)
39
• First hurricane to make landfall
in the U.S. since 2005
• Made landfall near Tallahassee,
FL on September 2nd as a
Category 1 hurricane
• Was downgraded to a tropical
storm and moved through
Georgia and the Carolinas
• High surf, localized storm surge,
and strong rip currents along the
East Coast Labor Day weekend
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Q3 2016 Recap:
Hurricane Matthew (September 28-October 10)
• Made landfall near Charleston, SC on
October 8th as a Category 1 hurricane
• Over 2 million power outages and over
30 fatalities in the U.S.
Consumer activity in advance of the storm
combined with the specific path of Matthew
helped temper the overall severity of the impact.
Post-storm purchasing in impacted areas spiked
for pumps, chainsaws, tarps, as well as hardware
and materials to repair property damage.
40
PUMPS +22%
SE Atlantic Region
Month-to-Date vs. LY
WATER +7%
Eastern Florida
Week ending 10/8 vs. LY
WEATHER INSIGHTS
2016 HOLIDAY SEASON OUTLOOK
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Temperaturevs.LastYearPrecipitationvs.LastYear
November 2015: Warmest retail November since 1999
November 2016 Outlook: Weather-Driven Demand vs. LY
SECTOR IMPACTS:
+$56 million for APPAREL SPECIALTY
-$169 million for DIY/HOME CENTERS
CATEGORY IMPACTS:
+10% WDD for BOOTS
+3% WDD for ELECTRIC BLANKETS
+2% WDD for FLEECE
+2% WDD for SWEATERS
42
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Black Friday (Week 43): Colder Temperatures vs LY
in the East Will Support Seasonal Demand
Temperature vs. LY Precipitation vs. LY
• Colder temperatures across the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Southeast
will drive demand for seasonal goods. A drier trend in the Plains will be
positive for traffic.
• For reference, in 2015, Thanksgiving Day was warmest since 2012 and
wettest since 2010. The Black Friday weekend was warmest since 2012
and wettest since 2000.
43
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Fleece
+4% WDD
Atlanta
Rainwear
+18% WDD
New York City
Sweaters
-6% WDD
Houston
Pants
+2% WDD
Charlotte
Hats & Gloves
-15% WDD
Denver
Thermals
-14% WDD
Seattle
Boots
-23% WDD
Calgary
Outerwear
+4% WDD
Toronto
Fleece
+11% WDD
Winnipeg
Long Sleeve Shirts
-6% WDD
Los Angeles
Retail Apparel Outlet Traffic
+0.5% WDD
North America
November 2016:
Weather Driven Demand Shopping Expectations vs. LY
44
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Temperaturevs.LastYearPrecipitationvs.LastYear
December 2015: Warmest retail December since 1960
December 2016 Outlook: Weather-Driven Demand vs. LY
SECTOR IMPACTS:
+$275 million for APPAREL STORES
-$876 million for DIY/HOME CENTERS
CATEGORY IMPACTS:
+11% WDD for BOOTS
+11% WDD for THERMALS
+9% WDD for HATS & GLOVES
+3% WDD for OUTERWEAR
45
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
December 2016:
Weather Driven Demand Shopping Expectations vs. LY
Rainwear
+27% WDD
Jacksonville
Thermals
+31% WDD
Chicago
Winterwear
+7% WDD
Dallas
Fleece
-2% WDD
San Francisco
Boots
-2% WDD
Salt Lake City
Retail Apparel Traffic
+0.5% WDD
North America
Sweaters
+6% WDD
Montreal
Outerwear
+9% WDD
Edmonton
Boots
+21% WDD
Toronto
Boots
+18% WDD
Boston
46
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Legend
Inches
Legend
Inches
• December 2015 was the warmest in
121 years.
• While precipitation was the most in
121 years, snowfall ended 41%
below normal.
• December 2016 is expected to bring
increased snowfall to the Midwest
and Northeast.
• Weather-driven risk is likely to be
confined to the Mountain West.
U.S. December Snowfall Outlook:
Increased Snowfall Midwest, Northeast vs LY
THIS YEAR:
December 2016 Outlook vs LY
LAST YEAR:
December 2015
Observed Amounts (Inches)
47
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Legend
Centimeters
Canada December Snowfall Outlook:
Higher Snowfall Amounts Expected for Most vs. LY
LAST YEAR:
December 2015
Observed Amounts (Centimeters)
Legend
Centimeters
THIS YEAR:
December 2016 Outlook vs LY
• December 2015 brought much
warmer conditions, particularly for
interior and eastern provinces.
• Total snowfall was 57% above prior
year but 25% below normal.
• December 2016 is expected to bring
a much more robust demand
environment for snow throwers and
pushers.
48
Centimeters
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Snowfall: Custom Automated Snow & Ice Reports
49
© 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
2016 Holiday Shopping Season: Key Takeaways
1.Sales Growth is Expected
• Favorable macro environment and calendar
2.The Consumer is More Connected Than Ever Before
• Omnichannel is here while AI, VR, and IoT Continues to Push the
Boundaries of Traditional Retail
3.Colder November and December vs. LY Will Support
Seasonal Categories
• Expect More Traffic-Limiting Events in December vs. LY
50
THANK YOU!
WEBCAST
@FungRetailTech
@Planalytics
Evan Gold
Executive Vice President
Global Services
Deborah Weinswig
Managing Director
Head of Global Retail & Technology

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Q3 2016 Recap & US 2016 Holiday Preview

  • 1. Q3 2016 RECAP & HOLIDAY PREVIEW WEBCAST Evan Gold Executive Vice President Global Services Deborah Weinswig Managing Director Head of Global Retail & Technology
  • 2. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. WEBCAST: Holiday Homestretch Thursday, Dec 15 WEBCAST: Holiday Recap Thursday, Jan 5 JOIN US! 2
  • 3. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 US 2016 HOLIDAY PREVIEW 3 DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY November 9, 2016
  • 4. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Agenda 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop 2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016 3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday Growth 4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season 5. E-Commerce: What Do Consumers Respond To? 6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up Slightly; Clear Shift Toward E- Commerce 7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will Remain Popular 4 8. Black Friday: Could It Be Dethroned? 9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More Early-Bird Online Shoppers in the US 10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar 11. Presidential Election Impact 12. Holiday Shopping Themes 13. Holiday Fashion Trends 14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables 15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s Hot Toys for 2016
  • 5. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop Indicator Period 2016 2015 YoY % Change Impact on Consumption Gas Price (USD per Gallon) Nov $2.23 $2.24 (0.4)% + Unemployment Rate Oct 4.9% 5.0% (0.1)% + Average Hourly Earnings Oct $25.92 $25.21 2.8% + Real Disposable Income ($Bil.) Sep 12,694.1 12,427.6 2.1% + S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price SA Index Aug 188.2 179.0 5.1% + University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment Oct 87.2 90.0 (3.1)% – Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics/US Energy Information Administration/US Bureau of Economic Analysis/S&P Dow Jones/University of Michigan 5
  • 6. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop • Gas prices were down 0.4% year over year in the 1st week of November • Consumer confidence stood at 87.2 in October, down 3.1% year over year • The US unemployment rate was 4.9% in October, 0.1% lower than in October 2015 • Private sector wages rose by 2.8% year over year in October • Real disposable income grew 0.1% month over month in September, after remaining virtually unchanged in the prior month • Home prices continued to rise moderately, supported by low mortgage rates and a shortage of supply • Inflation/deflation – Apparel prices are below the average inflationary level – Food prices fell by 0.1% month over month and by 1.7% year over year in September 6 Source: US Energy Information Administration/International Monetary Fund/Rhodium Group
  • 7. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumers Slightly More Optimistic as Gas Prices Level Off • Gas prices were $2.33 per gallon in September, down more than 5% from a year ago • Low gas prices continue to curb the inflation rate Nov 7 2016, $2.23 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 Nov 14 May 15 Nov 15 May 16 Nov 16 Retail Gasoline Prices (USD per Gal.) 7 Source: US Energy Information Administration
  • 8. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Sentiment Slides in October • The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at 87.2 in October, down 3.1% year over year and 4.4% month over month. • Consumer sentiment slid in October due to a temporary bout of uncertainty caused by the election and less favorable prospects for the national economy, with half of all consumers anticipating an economic downturn sometime in the next five years. 87.2 30 50 70 90 110 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment 8 Through September 30, 2016 Source: University of Michigan
  • 9. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: The Labor Market Stands Firm • The US unemployment rate was 4.9% in October, edging down from 5.0% in September. – Job gains were seen in professional and technical services, financial activities and healthcare. • Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose by 2.8% year over year to $25.92 in October. 4.9% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 US Unemployment Rate 2.8% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY % Change) 9 Through September 30, 2016; seasonally adjusted Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 10. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Savings Rate Falls as Disposable Income Increases • Real disposable income was flat month over month in September, but up 2.1% year over year. The figure stayed flat for the second consecutive month. • The US personal savings rate remains below levels seen at the start of 2016, reaching 5.7% in September, suggesting that many consumers are in a good place and have money to spend Real Disposable Income (Left Axis) and Personal Savings (Right Axis) 10 Through August 30, 2016; seasonally adjusted Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 12,694.1 797.8 0.0 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 11,000.0 11,500.0 12,000.0 12,500.0 13,000.0 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Real Disposable Income Personal Savings
  • 11. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Home Price Gains Continue in August • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price SA Index increased by 5.1% in August • Home prices continued to rise moderately, supported by low mortgage rates and a shortage of supply – The number of homes for sale has fallen by almost 7% from a year ago in August S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price SA Index 188.2 100 120 140 160 180 200 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 11 Source: S&P Dow Jones
  • 12. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Consumer Prices Rose Steadily in September • The core PCE deflator, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% month over month in September and was up 1.7% from September 2015 • Consumer prices have been driven higher by oil price rebound and rising housing prices 12 PCE Deflator (YoY % Change) Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis 1.2 1.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Headline Core
  • 13. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Retail Sales Point to Confident Consumers • US retail sales excluding autos posted solid growth in September, up 0.5% from August and up 2.7% from the year-ago period – Nonstore retailers’ sales rose by 10.6% year over year – Restaurant and bars’ sales rose by 6.1% year over year – Department stores declined 6.4%, continuing the recent trend of underperformance 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 12 13 14 15 16 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 13 Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos Jan 2012–Sep 2016 (YoY % Change) Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos Oct 2015–Sep 2016 (YoY % Change) Source: US Census Bureau 2.7% 2.7%
  • 14. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016 We are optimistic about the prospects for holiday sales this year and believe there could be upside to projections • We estimate that holiday sales from November through December will grow by 3% to 4% versus 3.2% last year and an average increase of 2.5% over the last 10 years • The NRF is projecting holiday sales growth of 3.6%. On average, industry groups are forecasting growth of roughly 3.7% for the period • Positive factors include a favorable macro backdrop, calendar and weather forecast 14
  • 15. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 $529 $554 $569 $585 $608 $626 $645–$651 5.2%% 4.6% 2.7% 2.7% 4.1% 3.2% 3%–4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E GrowthRate HolidayRetailSales(USDBil.) Holiday Retail Sales Growth Rate Source: National Retail Federation (NRF)/Fung Global Retail & Technology 15 2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016
  • 16. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday Growth • Online sales were up 15.8% in the second quarter, and accounted for 8.1% of total retail sales • We expect online sales to increase by 7% to 10% over the holiday season ($91.6B), and to make up 10.7% of total holiday sales – One in three shoppers (35%) made more than half their holiday purchases online in 2015 15.3% 15.5% 17.4% 15.7% 16.4% 18.2% 17.4% 16.0% 15.5% 15.8% 15.8% 14.2% 14.8% 14.2% 15.2% 15.1% 15.5% 15.8% US Retail E-Commerce Sales Growth, YoY % Change (1Q12–2Q16) 29% 30% 34% 31% 33% 36% 39% 40% 44% 46% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percent of US Holiday Shopping Done Online (2006–2015) 16 Seasonally adjusted Source: US Census Bureau Seasonally adjusted Source: NRF
  • 17. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season • Mobile commerce was up 59% YoY to $5 billion during the 2015 holiday season (comScore) – The majority of search is now mobile: 56% of searches that resulted in a click-through to a top retail site were conducted on a smartphone or tablet during the holiday season • Spending via mobile devices is expected to increase by 45.2%, to hit $20 billion in 2016 (CTA) – Smartphone m-commerce growth will exceed tablets’ growth for the first time in 2016 17 Source: Signal 51.7% 40.8% 34.0% 28.7% 24.6% 21.6% 46.6% 58.0% 65.0% 70.5% 74.8% 77.9% 1.70% 1.30% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.50% 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Tablet Smartphone Other $206.5 $267.3 $335.8$80.9 $115.9 $156.4 US Retail M-Commerce Sales: Total (USD Bil.) and Share, by Device (%)
  • 18. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 5. E-Commerce: What Will We See from Retailers? • Retailers are offering a variety of online and in- store ordering and delivery options – 60% of retailers will provide both free shipping and free returns (NRF) – Buy online, pick up in store / Buy online, return in store • Save on shipping costs • Add-on purchases • The most profitable online promotions last holiday season – Online-only sales, limited-time offers and free shipping (NRF) 18 Source: NRF, Holiday Survey
  • 19. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up Slightly; Clear Shift Toward E-Commerce • Retail sector seasonal hiring: 640,000–690,000 versus 675,300 last year – Transportation, warehouse and entertainment sectors will see increases • JCPenney plans 33.3% increase in seasonal workforce – 2,000 employees to focus on fulfilling online orders • Amazon plans 20.1% increase in seasonal workforce – 120,000 seasonal jobs for customer fulfillment and customer service Number of Seasonal Hires 2015 2016 YoY % Change UPS 95,000 95,000 0% Macy’s 85,000 83,000 (2.4)% Home Depot 80,000 80,000 0% Amazon 100,000 120,000 20% Target 70,000 77,500 10.7% Kohl’s 79,160 69,000 (12.8)% FedEx 55,000 50,000 (9.1)% JCPenney 30,000 40,000 33.3% Lowe’s 40,000 46,000 15% Bon-Ton 13,000 13,000 0% TOTAL 647,160 673,500 4% 19 Source: Company reports
  • 20. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will Remain Popular • The trend to open early on ‘Gray Thursday’ will continue this year, but at a slower rate than recent years – 49% of retailers plan to open on Thanksgiving, up 1% from last year – 59% of Shopping visits will be on mobile • Earlier online promotions to stay competitive – Walmart and Target made majority Black Friday deals available online the morning of Thanksgiving last year • Retailers staying home for Thanksgiving to align with corporate values – Costco, Home Depot, REI, Office Depot, Mall of America, CBL & Associates, T.J. Maxx 20
  • 21. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 8. Black Friday: #OptOut Thanksgiving 21
  • 22. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 8. Black Friday: Retailers Open on Thanksgiving Last Year 22
  • 23. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 8. Black Friday: REI With 2nd #OptOutside Campaign • Generous employee benefit and external display of the brand’s principles – Encouraging consumers to spend time outdoors – Younger consumers are more inclined to support a company that illustrates social impact with specific actions • With #OptOutside, REI will ask people to share what they are doing on Black Friday via social media 23
  • 24. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 8. Black Friday: No Longer the Biggest Shopping Holiday of the Season • Black Friday’s significance has waned in recent years – Promotional activity has increased year-round • Consumers looking for bargains and spreading out their spending – Almost half of shoppers will begin shopping by November 1 • Friday, December 23, is set to be the biggest shopping day of the season – That Friday is the day before Chanukah begins and two days before Christmas 2016: Top 5 Expected Biggest Shopping Days (Sales) 2016: Top 5 Expected Busiest Shopping Days (Shopper Visits) 1. Friday, December 23 1. Saturday, December 17 2. Saturday, December 17 2. Black Friday, November 25 3. Black Friday, November 25 3. Friday, December 23 4. Thursday, December 22 4. Saturday, December 10 5. Wednesday, December 21 5. Monday, December 26 24 Source: RetailNext
  • 25. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More Early-Bird Online Shoppers in the US • Singles’ Day (Nov. 11) is China’s equivalent to Cyber Monday. In 2015, e-commerce giant Alibaba saw $14.3 billion in transactions, up 60% from 2014 – Sales in the US reached $1.4 billion in 2015, up 14% from 2014 (Adobe) – 180 US retailers had exclusive offerings • Globalization is a top priority – Expanding international brand offerings – Katy Perry is a global ambassador • We expect $20 billion in sales this year, a 40% year-over-year increase – US sales expected to hit $2.5 billion 25
  • 26. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar • There are two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year: 31 days compared with 29 last year 26 Election Day Singles’ Day Thanksgiving Black Friday Cyber Monday Giving Tuesday Green Monday Chanukah (Sundown–Sundown, Dec 24–Jan 1) Super Saturday Christmas
  • 27. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 • Super Saturday falls on December 24, one day before Christmas and the day Chanukah begins. Shoppers are likely to make last-minute gift purchases in stores rather than online on Super Saturday. • Shoppers will also take advantage of Free Shipping Day on December 16, which guarantees delivery by Christmas Eve 27 10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
  • 28. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 11. Presidential Election Impact: Could Keep the Lid on Spending Early in the Season • Political ads driving up the cost of advertising – Political advertising spend is up 20% since the last election, and digital spend is up 700% – Expect delays in holiday promotions • Retail store foot traffic and sales are likely to be negatively impacted in the weeks leading up to Election Day – Shoppers are preoccupied with the election – With uncertainty abounding, consumers tend to put shopping trips on hold • Postelection bounce back as shoppers release pent-up demand after November 8 – We expect November sales to be as strong as last year 28
  • 29. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 12. Holiday Shopping Themes • Gift cards continue to be an attractive option – Millennials are sensitive to cybersecurity issues and identity fraud; they look for safer digital payment methods – Two-thirds of shoppers (63%) purchased at least one gift card last year, up 2% from the previous year (NRF) • Travel and entertainment – Almost half of overall holiday spending (42%) will accrue to travel and entertainment – Millennials preference for gifts that entail experience driving growth • Subscription services as gifts – 1,450% growth in visits to those websites; popular gifts include Birchbox and Dollar Shave Club subscriptions 29
  • 30. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 13. Holiday Fashion Trends Standout fashion trends for the 2016 holiday season • Athleisure is changing shape – A more refined, multifunctional look • 70s style and athleisure trend in shoes – Birkenstocks, Nike Jordan, Chaco • Accessories – Backpacks, smart jewelry and watches • Denim and jeans strengthen, leggings trend wanes 30 Source: Forever 21 Source: Instagram, @Forever 21
  • 31. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables • Tech items will remain popular – 68% of consumers will buy electronics this holiday season (CTA) – Those gifting electronics plan to spend 3.1% more on them than last year • Personal assistants – Amazon Echo – Google Assistant • Virtual reality – Sony PlayStation VR – Google Cardboard • Wearables – Apple Watch Series 2 – Fitbit Charge 2 31
  • 32. DEBORAH WEINSWIG MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s Hot Toys for 2016 • US toy sales grew by 6.7% in 2015 to $19.4 billion (NPD Group) • Toys that stimulate the mind – Fisher-Price’s Think & Learn Code-a-pillar – Cozmo, a robot with artificial intelligence • Movie releases to drive sales – Trolls (November 4) – Moana (November 23) – Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (December 16) 32
  • 34. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. • U.S. warmest in 20+ years – Warmer than normal • Canada warmer than LY – Warmer than normal 34 Q3 2016 (August - October): Warmer and Wetter Than LY and Normal • U.S. wettest since 2011 – Wetter than normal • Canada wetter than LY – Wetter than normal
  • 35. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. A Challenging Start to Q3 in August… 2016 2015 Weather Impact Aug. 2016 vs Prior Year APPAREL SPECIALTY -$198 Million AUGUST vs. NORMAL Retail Traffic: - 0.5% Business Impacts •Hot Coffee •Kids Pants •Fans •Suncare •Sports Drinks •Sandals WDD 35
  • 36. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. SEPTEMBER vs. NORMAL 2016 2015 Weather Impact Sep. 2016 vs Prior Year APPAREL SPECIALTY -$195 Million DIY / HOME CENTERS +$104 Million Warmth Continued Through September Retail Traffic: - 0.6% Business Impacts •Soup •Sweaters •Lawn & Garden •Allergy Relief •Grilling & Propane WDD 36
  • 37. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Regional Opportunities During October Last October, the East had the best opportunities for fall sales while markets west of the Mississippi River were challenged by warmer temperatures. 37 OCTOBER 2016- TEMPERATURE VS. LY October 2-8 October 9-15 October 16-22 October 22-29 OCTOBER vs. NORMAL 2016 2015
  • 38. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. October 2016 Retail Traffic: -0.5% Business Impacts •Pants •Fleece •Pest Control 38 WDD •Rainwear •Lawn Care Halloween Monday, October 31st Temperature vs Normal Opportunities Were Temporal As Well Temperature vs LY Weather Impact Oct. 2016 vs Prior Year APPAREL SPECIALTY -$176 Million
  • 39. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Q3 2016 Recap: Hurricane Hermine (August 28 – September 3) 39 • First hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since 2005 • Made landfall near Tallahassee, FL on September 2nd as a Category 1 hurricane • Was downgraded to a tropical storm and moved through Georgia and the Carolinas • High surf, localized storm surge, and strong rip currents along the East Coast Labor Day weekend
  • 40. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Q3 2016 Recap: Hurricane Matthew (September 28-October 10) • Made landfall near Charleston, SC on October 8th as a Category 1 hurricane • Over 2 million power outages and over 30 fatalities in the U.S. Consumer activity in advance of the storm combined with the specific path of Matthew helped temper the overall severity of the impact. Post-storm purchasing in impacted areas spiked for pumps, chainsaws, tarps, as well as hardware and materials to repair property damage. 40 PUMPS +22% SE Atlantic Region Month-to-Date vs. LY WATER +7% Eastern Florida Week ending 10/8 vs. LY
  • 42. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Temperaturevs.LastYearPrecipitationvs.LastYear November 2015: Warmest retail November since 1999 November 2016 Outlook: Weather-Driven Demand vs. LY SECTOR IMPACTS: +$56 million for APPAREL SPECIALTY -$169 million for DIY/HOME CENTERS CATEGORY IMPACTS: +10% WDD for BOOTS +3% WDD for ELECTRIC BLANKETS +2% WDD for FLEECE +2% WDD for SWEATERS 42
  • 43. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Black Friday (Week 43): Colder Temperatures vs LY in the East Will Support Seasonal Demand Temperature vs. LY Precipitation vs. LY • Colder temperatures across the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Southeast will drive demand for seasonal goods. A drier trend in the Plains will be positive for traffic. • For reference, in 2015, Thanksgiving Day was warmest since 2012 and wettest since 2010. The Black Friday weekend was warmest since 2012 and wettest since 2000. 43
  • 44. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Fleece +4% WDD Atlanta Rainwear +18% WDD New York City Sweaters -6% WDD Houston Pants +2% WDD Charlotte Hats & Gloves -15% WDD Denver Thermals -14% WDD Seattle Boots -23% WDD Calgary Outerwear +4% WDD Toronto Fleece +11% WDD Winnipeg Long Sleeve Shirts -6% WDD Los Angeles Retail Apparel Outlet Traffic +0.5% WDD North America November 2016: Weather Driven Demand Shopping Expectations vs. LY 44
  • 45. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Temperaturevs.LastYearPrecipitationvs.LastYear December 2015: Warmest retail December since 1960 December 2016 Outlook: Weather-Driven Demand vs. LY SECTOR IMPACTS: +$275 million for APPAREL STORES -$876 million for DIY/HOME CENTERS CATEGORY IMPACTS: +11% WDD for BOOTS +11% WDD for THERMALS +9% WDD for HATS & GLOVES +3% WDD for OUTERWEAR 45
  • 46. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. December 2016: Weather Driven Demand Shopping Expectations vs. LY Rainwear +27% WDD Jacksonville Thermals +31% WDD Chicago Winterwear +7% WDD Dallas Fleece -2% WDD San Francisco Boots -2% WDD Salt Lake City Retail Apparel Traffic +0.5% WDD North America Sweaters +6% WDD Montreal Outerwear +9% WDD Edmonton Boots +21% WDD Toronto Boots +18% WDD Boston 46
  • 47. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Legend Inches Legend Inches • December 2015 was the warmest in 121 years. • While precipitation was the most in 121 years, snowfall ended 41% below normal. • December 2016 is expected to bring increased snowfall to the Midwest and Northeast. • Weather-driven risk is likely to be confined to the Mountain West. U.S. December Snowfall Outlook: Increased Snowfall Midwest, Northeast vs LY THIS YEAR: December 2016 Outlook vs LY LAST YEAR: December 2015 Observed Amounts (Inches) 47
  • 48. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Legend Centimeters Canada December Snowfall Outlook: Higher Snowfall Amounts Expected for Most vs. LY LAST YEAR: December 2015 Observed Amounts (Centimeters) Legend Centimeters THIS YEAR: December 2016 Outlook vs LY • December 2015 brought much warmer conditions, particularly for interior and eastern provinces. • Total snowfall was 57% above prior year but 25% below normal. • December 2016 is expected to bring a much more robust demand environment for snow throwers and pushers. 48 Centimeters
  • 49. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Snowfall: Custom Automated Snow & Ice Reports 49
  • 50. © 2016 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 2016 Holiday Shopping Season: Key Takeaways 1.Sales Growth is Expected • Favorable macro environment and calendar 2.The Consumer is More Connected Than Ever Before • Omnichannel is here while AI, VR, and IoT Continues to Push the Boundaries of Traditional Retail 3.Colder November and December vs. LY Will Support Seasonal Categories • Expect More Traffic-Limiting Events in December vs. LY 50
  • 51. THANK YOU! WEBCAST @FungRetailTech @Planalytics Evan Gold Executive Vice President Global Services Deborah Weinswig Managing Director Head of Global Retail & Technology