Here is a great regional report we produce for those of you following multifamily in Puget Sound --Colliers Institutional Multifamily Report for Q1 2012
Uneak White's Personal Brand Exploration Presentation
Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report
1. Dave Schumacher
Sr. Vice President
206 382 8555
dave.schumacher@colliers.com
David W. Mortensen
Sr. Associate
206 382 8554
david.mortensen@colliers.com
Dylan P. Simon
Associate
206 624 7413
dylan.simon@colliers.com
FIRST QUARTER 2012
Research &
Knowledge Report
Seattle Multifamily
Colliers International
601 Union St., Ste 5300 | Seattle, WA 98101 www.colliers.com
2. Q1 2012 | MultiFamily
Colliers International | Seattle
research & forecast Report
Demand Driving Construction, Rates Driving Sales
The biggest building boom in 25 years is taking place in Seattle. In the past, most new construction
happened in the suburbs. In this cycle, however, the vast majority of the new product is in Seattle
proper – Downtown, First Hill/Capitol Hill, Fremont/Ballard, and the University District. At the same
time, Puget Sound area employment is up 2.5% year-over-year, which is stronger than previously
thought, and the area is expected to add jobs at a rate of 2% or better every year through 2016.
Inside, we examine the potential new product and project how much of it will actually be built. We
examine employment growth and demand forecasts to determine if and when the market will be
oversaturated by the new supply, or whether the strong demand will absorb the new product.
We also look at the investment market – specifically sales volume and cap rates. Sales volume is
market indicators increasing and is likely to continue to increase throughout 2012 and 2013. Downward pressure on
cap rates continues, but we expect it to flatten out this year. What market forces could reverse cap
2012 2013
rate compression? Finally, we take a brief look at each of the major market regions within the Seattle
metro area – Seattle, Eastside, Southend and Snohomish County.
VACANCY
Cap Rates
Key Indicators Supply and Demand
construction • Tri-Countysales volume totaled $408 • Employment is projected to grow between
million in Q1 2012 vs. $100 million Q1 2011 2.0% and 2.5% annually in the Puget Sound
rents • Rents through 2016 (economicforecaster.com)
in the Seattle MSA have risen 4.8%
year-over-year according to Apartment • Approximately 3,500 new units are expected to
Insights be delivered in 2012
• Vacancy
is down to 4.1% in King County • New development should peak in 2013 with a
and 4.6% in Snohomish County projected 6,300 new units
• 18%
are offering concessions vs. the Q1
2010 peak of 62% (duprescott.com)
Puget Sound HOme Ownership rates
67.0% “There remains an aversion
66.0% to home ownership as
65.0% evidenced by still downward-
trending home ownership
64.0%
rates. This phenomenon
63.0%
continues to stimulate
62.0%
demand by depressing
61.0% turnover and thereby limiting
60.0% fresh new supply.” Thomas
59.0% W. Toomey, president and
58.0% CEO of UDR (The Watch List,
Feb 9, 2012)
www.colliers.com/seattle
3. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily
Growing Supply, Growing Demand
Projected Deliveries in King and Snohomish Counties
There are 28,000 total units that are either under construction or in
10,000
planning stages in King and Snohomish Counties. To try to put that in some
9,000
perspective, we handicap the various stages of development for likelihood
of completion. We assume that 100% of the properties currently under 8,000
construction will be completed. We handicap properties in the planning 7,000
stages at different levels based on projected year of delivery. We project 6,000
that 70% of properties in planning for 2013 delivery will be completed. We 5,000
project 60% completion for 2014 properties and 50% for 2015 and the 4,000
projects in planning without delivery dates as yet. The total projected 6,887
3,000 5,731
delivery over the next 4 years using that handicapping scheme just over
2,000 3,949
20,000 units. We believe actual deliveries are highly unlikely to exceed 2,976
that number and may well fall short. 1,000
632
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 Future
Completed Under Construction Planning Projected
Yellow bars indicate our own projections of actual deliveries
Projecting Employment Growth
Projected Job Growth in King and Snohomish Counties
After projected new development, employment is the primary factor
45,000
that determines when and if Seattle gets overbuilt.
40,000
Employment in the Seattle area grew faster than previously thought, 35,000
causing Conway and Pedersen (economicforecaster.com) to increase
30,000
their 2012 employment forecasts up by 12,400 jobs in King and
Snohomish Counties. Unemployment is now down to 7.4% in King 25,000
County (which peaked at 9.0% Q4 2009) and 8.2% in Snohomish 20,000
County (which peaked at 10.6% Q4 2009). They project unemployment 15,000
to drop to 7.1%/7.9% in 2013 (King/Snohomish), 6.9%/7.7% in 2014
10,000
and 6.6%/7.3% in 2015. 6,643 6,635 6,182
4,315
5,000 2,086
Employment is the primary driver of in-migration and apartment
-
demand, so improving employment bodes well for absorption of new 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
supply. Our demand projections come from a March 2012 O’Connor
New Jobs New Apartment Demand
Consulting Group report. Those projections do not take into account
Conway and Pedersen’s now increased employment forecast, so an
updated demand projection would likely be somewhat higher. Sources: Employment – economicforecaster.com, Demand – O’Connor Consulting Group
(Mar 2012)
Colliers International | p. 2
4. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily
Projecting Demand and new Development
Deliveries are expected to peak in 2013 for this cycle and taper down to more typical levels. Still, this development cycle is not likely to end any time
soon. We have been predicting a housing shortage in the Seattle market since 2008. The market lost nearly 10,000 units from 2004-2007 which the
development pipeline has just replaced as of last year. Demand currently exceeds supply even though unemployment is still around 8%. The demand
projections from O’Connor Consulting Group show that new households and employment growth are expected to keep demand in front of supply for the
foreseeable future.
Projected Demand vs. Deliveries Projected Vacancy
8,000 5.0%
7,000 4.5%
6,000 4.0%
3.5%
5,000
3.0%
4,000
2.5%
3,000
2.0%
2,000
1.5%
1,000 1.0%
- 0.5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0.0%
New Apartment Demand New Deliveries 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sales Volume Rising
Tri-County Sales Volume
Puget Sound sales volume returned to more typical levels in 2011, and
$2,500,000,000
2012 looks to build on that momentum. Q1 2012 sales volume in the
tri-county area totaled $408 million vs. $100 million in Q1 2011. Deal
flow should continue to rise throughout 2012 and 2013. $2,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$500,000,000
$0
King Pierce Snohomish
Cap Rates Compressing
king county cap rates
Interest rates and the 10-year treasury have been major factors driving
9.0%
cap rate compression in this cycle. At this point, neither the 10-year 8.1% 8.1% 8.0%
nor cap rates are likely to go any lower, particularly given the record 8.0% 7.4%
low 1.79% 10-year treasury yield seen earlier this year. The Fed has 6.8%
7.0% 6.3% 6.2%
promised to keep interest rates “low” through 2014, but that may not 5.6% 5.4% 5.5%
5.9%
6.0%
stop the 10-year from creeping up as we witnessed in March. 4.8%
5.2%
Downward pressure on cap rates will likely ease somewhat following 5.0%
any upward movement in interest rates and the 10-year yield. 4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Colliers International | p. 3
5. EVERETT
Snohmish County Top Employers
> The Boeing Company > Zumiez
> Naval Station Everett > Aviation Technical Services SNOHOMISH
> Providence Regional Medical Center > Rinker Materials NW
> Premera Blue Cross > Fluke Corp
> Tulalip Tribes > Intermec
MILL CREEK
> Philips Medical Systems
MONROE
LYNNWOOD
Snohomish County
EDMONDS
Greater Seattle Top Employers
> University of Washington > Starbucks Corp
> Amazon.com > Perkins Coie
BOTHELL WOODINVILLE
> King County Government > Expeditors International
> Group Health Cooperative > Real Networks Inc
> Nordstrom Inc > Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
> Swedish Medical Center > Russell Investments Eastside
Greater Seattle REDMOND
Eastside Top Employers
> Microsoft > Symetra Financial
> Nintendo > Data I/O Corp
SEATTLE BELLEVUE > Costco Wholesale > Concur Technologies
> Expedia Inc > Clearwire Corp
> Esterline Technologies > Google
ISSAQUAH
RENTON
BURIEN TUKWILA
SEATAC
Southend
Average Rent and Vacancy - Seattle MSA Markets
$1,400 10% KENT
$1,300 9%
8%
$1,200
GIG HARBOR
Southend Top Employers
7%
$1,100
FEDERAL WAY > The Boeing Company > Paccar Inc / Kenworth
6% AUBURN
$1,000 > Port of Seattle > Alaska Air Group
5%
$900 > Providence Health > IKEA
4% > Valley Medical Center > REI
$800
3% > Weyerhaeuser > Mikron Industries
$700 TACOMA
2%
$600 1%
$500 Pierce County 0%
Greater Seattle Eastside Southend Snohomish County
Average Rent/SF Average Vacancy Rate
PUYALLUP
6. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily
Vacancy Cap Rates Construction Rents
2012
Greater Seattle 2013
Greater Seattle Market Vacancy
After the recession and the collapse of Washington Mutual, the
Gr Seattle Market Vacancy downtown Seattle office and retail sectors have rebounded
8.00% dramatically.
7.00% • Downtown employment growth is driving apartment development
6.00% which is why 75% of the region’s new projects are being built in
Seattle. In fact, Seattle ranked fifth nationally for job growth
5.00%
between January 2011 and January 2012 (PSBJ 3/23/12).
4.00%
• Amazon has played a critical role in the downtown surge. Along
3.00%
3 00%
with the new South Lake Union campus headquarters, it recently
2.00% announced plans to add a staggering 3 million square feet of office
1.00% in the Denny Triangle. Amazon has almost single-handedly driven
0.00% down the office vacancy rate in the northern edge of downtown by
leasing up office space nearby. Amazon’s rapid expansion has also
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been a catalyst for the restaurant and apartment surge in South
Lake Union and the rush to build apartments elsewhere in the
downtown core.
• The
downtown retail sector led by Nordstrom is thriving.
Nordstrom is expanding into the Quest Plaza tower recently
Greater Seattle Average Rent
Greater Seattle Average Rent purchased by Clarion. The company, which already occupied over
one million SF in downtown Seattle, signed a 20-year lease for
$1,250
300,000 SF. Meanwhile, Target purchased 103,000 SF of space
$1,200 in 2010 and will open one of the first small-format CityTarget
$1,150 stores in downtown Seattle this summer. Target is offering
one-stop shopping, including groceries, to urban dwellers in
$1,100
Seattle, Chicago, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
$1,050
$1,000 Greater Seattle New Development
$950 8,000
$900 7,000
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6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
2 000
1,000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Completed Under Construction Planned
Colliers International | p. 5
7. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily
Vacancy Cap Rates Construction Rents
2012
Eastside 2013
Eastside Market Vacancy
Eastside Market Vacancy Multifamily rents on the Eastside are the highest in the region and
10.0% vacancy rates have dropped to 3.7%. Eastside office vacancy has fallen
9.0% below 10%, the lowest in the region.
8.0% • Touchstone announced they are moving ahead “full throttle” with
7.0%
their redevelopment plans for Kirkland Parkplace. Google is rumored
6.0%
to be a likely tenant for a portion of the 1.2 million SF of office/tech
5.0%
space. (Daily Journal of Commerce, 4/13/12)
4.0%
4 0%
3.0% • Seattle
is still capturing many of the young creative and tech
2.0% workers that commute to the Eastside, but some urban villages are
1.0% cropping up on the Eastside to keep Gen Y on that side of Lake
0.0% Washington. Look to the downtowns of Redmond, Bellevue, Kirkland
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and even Bothell to become denser and hipper as this development
cycle unfolds with improved infrastructure and strategic
development within their emerging urban city centers.
• TheEastside’s strong high-tech employment base led by Microsoft
continues to draw an educated workforce to the area. As
neighborhood walkability and abundant transit options become
increasingly important, city officials are responding to this demand.
Eastside Average Rent
Eastside Average Rent • Many cities on the Eastside have joined forces to ensure conversion
of the Eastside rail corridor into a regional trail and linear park. This
$1,350 44-mile rail corridor runs from Renton to Snohomish. In Redmond
the trail parallels the planned East Link light rail station. In Kirkland,
$1,300 the corridor connects a key Highway 520 park-and-ride with a
Google campus and Totem Lake.
$1,250 • Plansfor the East link light rail extension from Seattle through
Mercer Island, I-90 core, Bellevue and eventually Redmond are in the
$1,200
$1 200
final design stage.
$1,150 eastside Projected New Development
2,000
$1,100 1,800
1,600
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1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Completed Under Construction Planned
Colliers International | p. 6
8. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily
Vacancy Cap Rates Construction Rents
2012
Southend 2013
Southend Market Vacancy
Southend Market Vacancy
• Occupancy in the Southend is improving (from 5.9% Q3 2011 to 5.6% 9.0%
Q1 2012) but is still above 5%. Opportunistic investors should look to 8.0%
this region for a late-recovering market. We particularly like Kent and
7.0%
Renton for the employment story
6.0%
• Rents are up just 1.76% YOY in the Southend to $924 which is still 5.0%
about 4% off the Q3 2008 peak of $959. With relatively flat supply 4.0%
(only 499 new units planned for the Southend through 2015), demand
3.0%
should begin to push rents in earnest as the Southend continues its
2.0%
pattern of population and job growth.
1.0%
• Paccar, one of the key Southend employers, recently received an order 0.0%
for 1,000 Kenworth T680 trucks. The deal is similar to the $100
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million/1,000 truck deal received two years ago. (PSBJ 3/22/12)
• We discuss Boeing at length in the Snohomish County section, but the
Southend is not to be neglected. The company has five facilities and
numerous suppliers in the Southend, all adding capacity. This includes
the Renton plant where the 737s are manufactured.
Southend Average Rent
Southend Average Rent
$1,000
$950
Southend New Development $900
600
$850
$850
500
400 $800
300
$750
200
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Q3 07
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100
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Completed Under Construction Planned
Colliers International | p. 7
9. research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFamily
Vacancy Cap Rates Construction Rents
2012
Snohomish County 2013
• Rents are up 3.40% YOY in Snohomish County to $974 which Snohomish Co Market Vacancy
Snohomish County Market Vacancy
is still 3.3% off the Q3 2008 peak of $1,006. Like the 10.0%
Southend, we also like Snohomish County for investors looking 9.0%
for markets that are just about to recover in earnest. 8.0%
7.0%
• The new development pipeline for all of Snohomish County
6.0%
through 2014 is less than 1,000 units. The largest project,
5.0%
Bailey’s Farm, a 372-unit development between Bothell and
4.0%
4 0%
Mill Creek, is currently under construction for 2013 delivery.
3.0%
Successes continue to add up at Boeing, which has a huge 2.0%
presence in Snohomish County: 1.0%
• 0.0%
Fifty 787 Dreamliners have come off the production line as of
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February.
•
The 747- 800, Boeing’s largest plane ever developed, has FAA
certification, and both the freighter and passenger
Snohomish County Avg Rent
Snohomish County Average Rent
configurations are now being delivered. $1,050
•
The Air Force Tanker contract, which will also be built at the
$1,000
Everett plant, promises 20-year stability that is essentially
immune to cycles. With an initial order of $35 billion,
$950
projections have gone as high as $100 billion for long-term
production as well as orders from foreign countries for their air $900
$900
refueling tanker needs.
•
Boeing is the country’s largest exporter with roughly 80 $850
percent of its airliners sold overseas where the 787 Dreamliner
is most popular (Wired.com, 2/17/12). $800
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•
Boeing added 9,000 workers in Washington since the end of
2010 and now employs 82,325 in the state.
•
As Boeing ramps up production to record levels in both Renton Snohomish County projected New Development
and Everett, Washington’s 650 aerospace suppliers are adding
1000
capacity and gearing up to meet the company’s needs. 900
•
The Boeing Company has a $300 billion backlog of airplane 800
orders and by 2013 it will be cranking out about 60 airplanes 700
per month, according to Janice Greene, senior manager of 600
500
supplier diversity for Boeing Commercial Airplanes (The
400
Columbian, 04/1/2012).
300
•
Over the next two decades, the state’s most powerful employer 200
plans to sell 33,500 commercial airplanes for a cool $4 trillion 100
(Seattle Times, 2/7/12). 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Completed Under Construction Planned
Colliers International | p. 8