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Disruptive Analysis Will The Carriers Retain Control Ohead
- 1. Open Wireless Access: Will the carriers retain control? eComm, Mountain View CA, USA Dean Bubley, 14 th March 2008 [email_address]
- 4. Two worlds in mobile Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008 Mar 2008 USA Canada Japan Korea >90% handsets sold via carriers <10% prepay <10% Nokia Globally: 50% phones sold by carriers 70% prepay, 40% Nokia Mixed Pretty much everywhere else 0-80% handsets sold via operators >50% prepay >40% Nokia Carrier-control
- 5. How openness works in much of the world Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008 Mar 2008 $30 from electronics store SIM “starter pack” c$5, inc $3 credit. Bought anonymously. No contract needed. Credit top-up from $1. Bought from kid leaning through bus window + + Downsides: Poor support for data, number portability, few “services” beyond voice & SMS
- 6. Openness in the UK Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008 Mar 2008 Starting @ $20 / month for 1GB No roaming premium on-net Or prepay $200 for modem then $1 per day / $10 per month No restriction on applications Competing against 4 other networks with other cost/policy
- 7. Devices, arbitrage and IP Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008 Mar 2008 THE PAST Cellular Operator Voice, SMS Internet 3G IP data Bluetooth THE PRESENT Smart OS Inflexible RTOS Memory card USB Complete control of all voice, data & content that goes to/from device WiFi
- 8. But do “Normobs” care about openness? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008 Mar 2008 On the shelves at my local branch of Carphone Warehouse in London last week 9 Types of Smartphone 11 Types of Pinkphone + 9 Brandphones – Prada, Armani, Ted Baker, Levis, Porsche, Mandarina Duck, D&G, JCB, Apple
- 11. Benevolent dictator or tyrant? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008 Mar 2008
- 15. Multiplicity: users have choices Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008 Mar 2008 (2nd phone: close friends) Multi-tasking, multi-access, multi-operator, least-cost-routing software In bag: Old college friends Former colleagues Best mates Informal business contacts Parents Work Home: PSTN, DSL & VoIP (calling Granny in Australia)
- 16. Open spectrum? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008 Mar 2008 An Irishman stopped cutting the hedge, as a car drew up beside him and an English visitor enquired, "Could you tell me the way to Balbriggan, Please?“ "You know, sir, if I was going to Balbriggan I wouldn't start from here at all ." Source: http://www.abitoblarney.com/irishjokes.htm
- 18. And more problems……. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008 Mar 2008 1.1bn shipped in 2007 Opportunity cost of ‘elegant’ but complex & slow solutions
- 21. Don’t be a dumb pipe, be a tiger-stripe pipe Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008 Mar 2008 (Huawei 3G HSDPA dongle modems, sold by 3 UK) $10 patterned sticker = higher margin than most services