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2. Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband Moray RumneyAgilent Technologies © Copyright 2009 Agilent Technologies, Inc.

4. One air interface

5. One frequency band

6. One core network

7. One application development framework

8. And no IPR (that we don’t own…)For 2G, GSM substantially achieved this in 1992 For 3G, UMTS faltered in 1999 but 3.5G is picking up by 2008 For 4G, what is the outlook? Page 3

9. Key lessons learned from 20 years of cellular What we learned from GSM (2G) Scale matters  4 billion devices worldwide Ubiquitous low-rate services work and are hugely profitable (voice/SMS) What we learned from UMTS (3G) A fat circuit-switched data pipe doesn’t cut it Coverage matters What we learned from HSPA (3.5G) Packet-switched data is essential for mobile broadband When the megabits finally start flowing, data density matters Macro networks can only do so much – we need small cells for capacityPricing data at 1% of voice is not sustainable What we learned from the iPhone Usability and apps are vastly more critical to innovation than air interfaces Wi-Fi is an effective way to offload low-grade traffic from cellular Page 4

10. What can wireless learn from Transportation?Trains, Planes and Automobiles: The film The film is the story of the trials and tribulations of an American executive (Steve Martin) trying to get home for Thanksgiving At every turn his preferred method of transport is thwarted - He does get home – eventually! We understand his plight because most of us can relate stories of our own We also understand his plight because we have a deep understanding of the range of transportation available to us Trains, plans and automobiles Moray Rumney Page 5 February 17th 2010

11. Transportation – a mature industry Transportation has taken thousands of years to evolve This has allowed us time to get used to four key elements Performance What to expect – capacity, speed etc. Value What different options are worth to us Price What we pay for different options Cost What it costs to provide a particular service New transportation options do come along – like Virgin Galactica Space Tourism – but in general, transportation is very stable Page 6

12. Properties of a mature and sustainable industry For an industry to be mature requires the following: We must understand the performance – i.e. what to expect From this we can assess the value to us individually We then can choose from the options and pay the price If the industry is to be sustainable then The value must exceed the price paid The price paid must exceed the cost of delivery Page 7

13. Mobile Broadband – a very new industry True mobile broadband has only very recently come upon us The rise of HSDPA, 1x-EV-DO and public Wi-Fi But is this industry mature and sustainable? What about its stability? Page 8

14. Page 9 We want planned order

15. Page 10 …and the space (spectrum!) to deploy it Note use of spatial diversity! Denver

16. Page 11 1G 3G 5G 2G 4G But what we have looks more like Heathrow!

17. 2G IS-136TDMA IS-95Acdma PDC GSM 2.5G 3G IS-95Bcdma Increasing efficiency, bandwidth and data rates HSCSD iMode GPRS E-GPRSEDGE IS-95Ccdma2000 W-CDMAFDD W-CDMATDD TD-SCDMALCR-TDD 3.5G 1xEV-DORelease B HSUPAFDD & TDD 1xEV-DORelease A 1xEV-DORelease 0 HSDPAFDD & TDD 3.9G 802.16dFixed WiMAXTM WiBRO 802.16eMobileWiMAXTM LTE-Advanced Rel-10 LTERel-8 Edge Evolution 4G 802.11g 802.11a 802.11b 802.11n 802.11h UMB HSPA+ 802.16m Cellular wireless: Almost nothing is obsolete in 20 years Trends in wireless evolution Moray Rumney Page 12 April 16th 2010

18. Consequence: 4G Mobile device design circa 2010 VoIP LTE Multi-band (29) HSPA+ TD-SCDMA High batteryefficiency High spectralefficiency LTE-Advanced MIMO 1xEV-DO(B) Low cost Interferencecancellation 802.16m Operator’s Radio equirements Wants: Everything When: Now! Greenwireless Bluetooth Multi-Carrier TD-LTE EDGE-Evolution 802.16e Dongle or phone Wi-FI A-GPS MBMS Multi-RAT Trends in wireless evolution Moray Rumney Page 13 April 16th 2010

19. Performance - Which is the best car? $2,500 $1,500,000 Answer: Both! It depends on the problem you are trying to solve Trends in wireless evolution Moray Rumney Page 14 Page 14 April 16th 2010

20. Performance varies across the cell based on SINR Page 15 Peak performance(ideal / single user) Average performance(per user:10 users/cell) Cell edge performance(per user: 10 users/cell) Throughput With each wireless evolution, the ratio between cell edge and peak performance has increased Cell edge /poor conditions Cell edge /poor conditions Cell centre /good conditions Position in cell /radio conditions

21. So which really matters in mobile broadband? Reality Entertainment! Page 16

22. Performance per user by format Page 17 * Ratio can be reduced at the expense of cell capacity by using proportional scheduling A high peak to average performance ratio is bad for user experience

23. Is Mobile Broadband sustainable today? With many of today’s data pricing plans, the cost of delivery exceeds the price which exceeds the value – this is not a sustainable situation Trains, plans and automobiles Moray Rumney Page 18 February 17th 2010

24. Wireless capacity growth 10000 2000 1000 Growth factor 100 25 20 10 Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells 1 In the last 50 years wireless capacity has increased by around 1,000,000 This growth has come from better efficiency, more spectrum and more cells in roughly this ratio: Growth has historically been dominated by the increase in the number of cells Trends in wireless evolution Moray Rumney Page 19 April 16th 2010

25. Capacity growth potential for the next decade 100 100 Small cell potential: Moving from 1 base station / 1000 users to 1 base station / 10 users Growth potential 10 3 2 Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells 1 Using current projections, the increase of cell numbers (small cell spectrum reuse) remains the dominant means of growing capacity Trends in wireless evolution Moray Rumney Page 20 April 16th 2010

27. The macrocellular dilemma To deliver true mobile broadband these three attributes are all required: High data rates with the capacity and density to match Ubiquitous coverage Low or reasonable cost For macrocellular networks, pick any two! Conclusion: High efficiency macrocellular can’t deliver substantial growth in capacity. Some form of small cells is essential. Page 22

28. FCC decision on Net NeutralityWhat dos it mean for wireless? “Broadband providers cannot discriminate against services or applications by slowing them down”http://www.openinternet.gov/read-speech.html What if we assumed other services were unlimited? Stubbed toe of the decade perhaps?But the operators are fighting back! Page 23 Is that the DoD? I’d like dad’s newspaper delivered by helicopter please!No charge of course.

29. Predicting winning technologyOften the “best” doesn’t win Ethernet vs. Token ring 802.11b vs. HiperLAN Windows 3.1 vs. Unix Iridium vs. GSM Esperanto vs. English What about femtocells vs. Wi-Fi “Perfection is the enemy of the good”Gustave FlaubertFrench Novelist 1821 - 1880 Page 24

30. The small cell challengeFemtocells Vs. Wi-Fi The capacity density opportunity offered by small cells is clear But which technology will win? There are many parameters to this debate but effective control of interference is critical for unplanned high density deployment Page 25

31. What happens when any two femtocells are co-sited on the same frequency? Page 26 Significant challenges, especially for closed subscriber group Trends in wireless evolution Moray Rumney April 16th 2010

32. 53 APs visible from one San Francisco restaurant. Can you spot it? Page 27 Not ideal but it still functions due to 802.11 cognitive design Trends in wireless evolution Moray Rumney April 16th 2010

33. Page 28 Scale also matters:WiFi chips will out-ship cellular phones by 2012

34. What will it take for 3.9G/4G technology to displace existing cellular and deliver a unified vision? Sufficient clean spectrum in which to gain a foothold (e.g. European 800 MHz band, 2.6 GHz band) Network optimization to milk opportunities and overcome challenges with OFDM Demonstrated performance to drive obsolescence of legacy and evolving older technologies leading to refarming Solution to Voice support caused by the packet-only network Proof that IMS is a viable solution for mobile systems Economies of scale to drive down prices to below legacy systems But leave high capacity density to small cells Page 29

35. Summary Page 30  Cellular Smileometer TM Macrocellular can provide ubiquitous medium performance mobile broadband Everything else needs to be offloaded to small cells with Wi-Fi well in the lead The mature cellular market will migrate to low cost & complexity technology  High cost & complexity Multi-format Multi-band Multi-antenna Fragmentation Low QoS Short battery life High peak to average performance High efficiency Low cost & complexity Fewer formats Fewer bands Fewer antennas Consolidation High QoS Long battery life High average performance Low peak to average performance Medium/low efficiency

36. Thank you for listening! Page 31