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Amateur Hour
Why APTs Are the Least of Your Worries
Ed Bellis
• Co-founder and CTO at Kenna Security, an
automated risk & vulnerability intelligence
platform
• Orbitz CISO for 6 years
• 20+ years Info Security experience
including Bank of America, CSC, E&Y
• Contributing Author Beautiful Security
• Frequent speaker at events such as…
About Me
Warning
This presentation contains large amounts of data
used for the purpose of proving an information
security theory. No marketers were harmed
during the making of this presentation.
“APT-1, Titan Rain,
GhostNet, Aurora,
Stuxnet, Red October,
and Duqu, Oh my!!”
Real but Likely??
• Spreadsheets that require a black belt in Excel
• COUNT ALL THE THINGS!
Likely or Very Likely?
74%
Don’t Worry, We Got This
67%
“What is real?
How do you define real?”
2016 DBIR
A Sneak Preview
Your Threat Model Is Backwards
“While 2015 was no
chump when it came to
successfully exploited
CVEs, the tally of
really old CVEs which
still get exploited in
2015 suggests that the
oldies are still
goodies.”
Your Confidence Is Unwarranted
“…we need to see
more of targeted
remediation
efforts which more
often than not
focus on those
vulnerabilities
which attackers
are successful with
in the wild.”
The Great Defensive Gap
“Low Hanging Fruit”
“if a vulnerability is
going to be
exploited, 30 days
is a good bet for
how much time you
have to remediate.“
The Tortoise
On Average it takes
companies 100 to
120 days to
remediate
vulnerabilities.
Versus The Hare
The probability that
a CVE that is
exploited in the
first year will be hit
X days after
publication. At
40-60 days, that
probability is over
90 percent.
Casual attacker
power grows
at the rate of
Metasploit.
But HD Moore’s Law is just the Tip of the Iceberg
Are These Attributes In Your Threat Model?
What About These?
Secure Because Math
Existing Exploit + Patch Available + RCE
> Advanced Persistent Threat
P for Probability!
…or put another way… “Why Burn a Zero Day?”
Key Takeaways
1.Focus on the Basics
2.Automate your Defenses
A. Configuration Management
B. Patch Management
C. Compensating Controls
D. Continuous Deployment
Make it necessary to be both Advanced and Persistent.
Q&A

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Amateur Hour: Why APTs Are The Least Of Your Worries