Farm trade policies in major economies: effects on EAC food security and agriculture
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Fabien TONDEL, Policy Officer, Food Security Programme, ECDPM
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Farm trade policies in major economies: effects on EAC food security and agriculture
- 1. CLIMATE AND NERGY Farm trade policies in major economies: effects on EAC food security and agriculture Fabien TONDEL, Policy Officer, Food Security Programme, ECDPM 8 JULY 2015 | Nairobi, Kenya AGRICULTURE
- 2. CLIMATE AND NERGY How do international market distortions affect agricultural incentives and food security conditions in Eastern Africa? • Which international commodity markets are distorted? • Which agricultural subsectors in Eastern African countries are affected? • What are the implications of related regional/local market impacts for food security? Key questions
- 3. CLIMATE AND NERGY Declining farm support in OECD countries… Source: OECD, 2012 UR Base period
- 4. CLIMATE AND NERGY But increasing farm support in emerging economies Source: OECD, 2013
- 5. CLIMATE AND NERGY Farm policies both in OECD & EEs still distort some markets Source: OECD, 2013
- 6. CLIMATE AND NERGY Transfers to specific commodities in OECD and EEs, 2008-10 Source: OECD, 2011 EU Brazil
- 7. CLIMATE AND NERGY Transfers to specific commodities in OECD and EEs, 2008-10 Source: OECD, 2011 China South Africa
- 8. CLIMATE AND NERGY Higher international food commodity prices… 00 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Food Price Index Meat Price Index Dairy Price Index Cereals Price Index Oils Price Index Sugar Price Index Source: FAO, 2015 (Nominal prices)
- 9. CLIMATE AND NERGY Domestic availability (1000 mt, 2014/15) Utilisation (1000 mt, 2014/15) Burundi 262 398 Kenya 3.994 6.554 Rwanda 762 902 Tanzania 7.961 8.796 Uganda 3.457 3900 Cereal trade balances in Eastern Africa Source: IFPRI, 2014
- 10. CLIMATE AND NERGY And rising food prices in Eastern Africa Food prices in EA Source: FEWS NET, 2015 (Nominal prices)
- 11. CLIMATE AND NERGY Example: sugar sector in Tanzania - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Tanzania sugar cane prod. Tanzania sugar prod. (raw) Tanzania sugar imp. (raw) Tanzania sugar imp. (refined) Tanzania sugar exp. (raw) Tanzania sugar exp. (refined) Left axis, sugar cane production in tonnes; right axis, sugar production and trade in tonnes Import surges Source: TSB & UNCTAD, 2015
- 12. CLIMATE AND NERGYImproving food security in EA but some variability across & within countries Source: IFPRI, 2014
- 13. CLIMATE AND NERGY • Increasingly competitive global markets for agricultural commodities (traditional OECD exporters, newer EE exporters)… • In the Americas, expected growth in exports of oilseeds, sugar, meat, cotton and ethanol • In Asia, increasing agro-food imports, but continued exports of rice, vegetable oils and fish will remain strong; India’s cotton exports will increase • In Africa, increasing intra-African trade • Preference erosion and increasing price and quality competition in OECD markets for tropical agricultural products (product regulations (SPS, TBT) and private standards); increasing demand for reciprocity (EPAs)… • South-South trade prospects improving (RTAs)… • And rising competitiveness and quality requirements in South-South and regional markets too • Inadequate domestic policy environment often a major cause of low performance in agro-food sectors (productivity, quality, value chain efficiency, value addition, etc.) Take-away messages
- 14. CLIMATE AND NERGY • Besides cotton, sectors to pay attention to in the negotiations are rice, dairy products, meat products and sugar, both in OECD countries and emerging economies • Need to better enforce trade policies in the EAC (common external tariff for sensitive products) • Need for a better business environment for farmers and other value chain operators, and for inclusive, private-sector-led approaches to agricultural development; need to seize regional market opportunities and the potential benefits from foreign trade and investment • CAADP remains a central policy framework (political support, inclusiveness, public investments, private-sector driven agricultural development, alignment and coordination of development partners and mutual accountability) • Mobilization of resources: innovative finance and trade facilitation for regional integration Take-away messages
Notes de l'éditeur
- Decline in farm support in the EU, Japan and the US Factors: decline in administered price and other forms of market price support and some decline in other forms of farm payments more or less decoupled from production (General Services Support and support to consumers must be added to the PSE to obtain Total Support Estimate) But still some high tariffs and SSMs Subsidies are subsidies, even decoupled/under the green box Important distinction to be made between Producer Support Estimate (PSE); Market Price Support (MPS, support due to policy measures creating a gap between domestic market prices and international market prices); and Producer Single Commodity Transfers (SCTs, support due to policies requiring the production of concerned commodities) (Producer) Nominal Assistance Coefficient (NAC): ratio between the value of gross farm receipts including support and gross farm receipts (at farm gate) valued at border prices (measured at farm gate) (Producer) Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC): ratio between the average price received by producers (at farm gate), including payments per tonne of current output, and the border price (measured at farm gate)