The document summarizes the work of the Imagining the Internet Center at Elon University, which explores emerging technologies and their social impact. The Center conducts surveys of experts about the future of the internet, education, and other topics. Past surveys have focused on issues like the role of mobile devices, virtual worlds, changing nature of work and education, and the impact of new technologies on human intelligence and behavior. The Center aims to inform policy and debate through research on the development and effects of new communication technologies.

2. http//www.imaginingtheinternet.org

3. Elon University School of Communications The mission: To explore and provide insights into emerging network innovations, global development, dynamics, diffusion and governance. The center ’s research holds a mirror to humanity's use of communications technologies, informs policy development, exposes potential futures and provides a historic record. It strives to illuminate emerging issues in order to serve the greater good. http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/about.xhtml

6. Elon University School of Communications http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/early90s/

7. Elon University School of Communications Quotes from Early ‘90s Database There's a big cinder block stuck on the technology accelerator pedal, and we're only gonna go faster and faster, never stopping. - William Gibson, 1994 The value of information about information can be greater than the value of the information itself. - Nicholas Negroponte, 1994

8. Elon University School of Communications The Internet is more like a social space than a thing so that its effects are more like those of Germany than those of hammers. - Mark Poster, 1995 We have to resist media imperialism - the tendency to colonize, to define new technologies in terms of the old ... Redefine, don't repackage. - Barry Diller, 1995

9. Elon University School of Communications From now on, the struggle will not be over mechanical control of the means of information, but over spin-control of the zeitgeist. - Bruce Sterling, 1994 Much care has to be taken with design and education in order for the change to be positive. We don't have natural defenses against fat, sugar, salt, alcohol, alkaloids - or media. - Alan Kay, 1994

11. Elon University School of Communications Statements from the 2004 survey… Master teachers will copyright courses and lectures , and multimedia versions will become "best sellers.” - Gary Bachula Education will still be in classrooms, however , the nature of knowledge and authority are changing rapidly. - David Weinberger The role of the teacher will change from authority figure with all the information to one-on-one educational coach. - Moira Gunn http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2004_formaleducation.xhtml

12. Elon University School of Communications The current classroom setup is a byproduct of the assembly line culture of the industrial revolution, with neat rows of desks facing the classroom leader. - Jonathan Peizer Schools are among those institutions most resistant to change… Much of the online learning will continue to be part of the expansion of the role of informal out-of-school learning in students’ lives. - Henry Jenkins Lucky learners will be in communities or professions in which the traditional expectations for judging quality will be liberated. - Christine Geith http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2004_formaleducation.xhtml

14. Elon University School of Communications It’s possible the mobile phone will be the "babble fish" of the 21st century—the tool that instantly translates any language (human, machine, or otherwise) to any other language. - Ed Dieterle It will no longer be seen as a mobile phone , more as a sort of mobile companion. There will be separate devices that can plug into each other, thus forming new objects on their fusion… to become teaching aids, etc. - Richard Osborne I do not see blanket interconnectivity as necessarily a positive scenario. - Alex Don http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2008survey/mobile_internet_2020.xhtml

15. Elon University School of Communications If people spend time in artificial spaces/virtual worlds it will likely most often be in game environments. - Steve Jones Sustained life (work/education/socializing) inside the metaverse will happen, but not as quickly as we might expect. Real life's appeals will be stronger. - Adam Peake Virtual worlds are the next evolution in social networking, and once it becomes easier to integrate content from an external environment into the virtual, the development and integration will become as ubiquitous as the Web. - Karmon Runquist http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2008survey/internet_and_virtual_reality_2020.xhtml

17. Elon University School of Communications The critical uncertainty is whether people will learn the essential literacies: attention, participation, collaboration, crap detection and network awareness… I am not optimistic about the rate of change in education. - Howard Rheingold Current schools’ rules/regulations, job protection , will delay the transformation to a better learning environment. The new learning system, more informal, will eventually win since we must use technology to cause everyone to learn more, more economically. Maintaining the status quo will only continue the existing win/lose society. - Ed Lyell http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2010survey/future_intelligence.xhtml

18. Elon University School of Communications The challenge we now face comes from the trust the Internet audience puts in the results demonstrated by the major search engines, how we resolve this will be what we most need to focus on in the current and future to ensure that knowledge, that which is primary and authoritative is truly understood and sought. - Kevin Novak Google will make us smarter by freeing humans from the current education system where facts are memorized, history is written by winners and a ‘one size fits all’ policy dominates. In 2020, the sheer amount of data available will fundamentally change our ability to understand. - Davis Fields http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/2010survey/future_intelligence.xhtml

19. Elon University School of Communications The Internet is the future of education, economics, politics, society… - We ARE information. - EVERYTHING is code. - We are becoming one with the Internet.

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21. Elon University School of Communications In just a few years we have built a Web with more than 70 billion sites and more than 1 trillion addresses.

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32. Elon University School of Communications How will the concepts of privacy and identity evolve in this environment?

33. Elon University School of Communications How are our brains changing as we converge with information in cyberspace?

34. Elon University School of Communications Are today ’s human institutions as they are constituted capable of responding well to new opportunities and threats?

35. Elon University School of Communications How is the definition of ‘reality’ changing and how do we tell fact from fiction in a mixed-reality environment?

36. Elon University School of Communications How much will regulation and technology bottlenecks now being introduced interfere with innovation and expected progress?

37. Elon University School of Communications How will differences in access to technology be dealt with in order to avoid a widening knowledge gap?

38. Elon University School of Communications Participate in the next survey! We invite you and your colleagues to participate as expert respondents in the next Future of the Internet survey, which is being fielded right now. To get ideas flowing, we’ll open up to a discussion of the question set right here, right now.

39. Elon University School of Communications Tension pairs force you to weigh options Rather than presenting a straight-on 2020 scenario and asking if you agree we are presenting two paragraphs on each issue and asking you to select which is most likely to evolve – not which you like, but which you most expect, knowing what you know now.

40. Elon University School of Communications In 2020 the brains of multitasking youth are “wired” differently from those over age 35 and overall it yields helpful results. They are learning more and they are more adept at finding answers to deep questions, in part because they can search effectively and access collective intelligence via the Internet. The changes in learning behavior and cognition among the young generally produce positive outcomes. Teens, tech and human potential in 2020

41. Elon University School of Communications In 2020, the brains of multitasking youth are “wired” differently from those over age 35 and overall it yields baleful results. They do not retain information; they spend most of their energy sharing short social messages, being entertained, and being distracted away from deep engagement. They lack deep-thinking capabilities; they lack face-to-face social skills. The changes in behavior and cognition are generally negative outcomes. Teens, tech and human potential in 2020

42. Elon University School of Communications In 2020 the brains of multitasking youth are “wired” differently from those over age 35 and overall it yields helpful results. They are learning more and they are more adept at finding answers to deep questions, in part because they can search effectively and access collective intelligence via the Internet. The changes in learning behavior and cognition among the young generally produce positive outcomes. In 2020, the brains of multitasking youth are “wired” differently from those over age 35 and overall it yields baleful results. They do not retain information; they spend most of their energy sharing short social messages, being entertained, and being distracted away from deep engagement. They lack deep-thinking capabilities; they lack face-to-face social skills. The changes in behavior and cognition are generally negative outcomes. Teens, tech and human potential in 2020

43. Elon University School of Communications In 2020, higher ed will not be much different. While people will be accessing more resources through teleconferencing and personal wireless smart devices, most universities will mostly require in-person, on-campus attendance of students most of the time at courses featuring a lot of traditional lectures. Universities’ assessment of learning and their requirements for graduation will be about the same as they are now. Higher education’s destination by 2020

44. Elon University School of Communications By 2020, higher ed will be quite different. There will be mass adoption of teleconferencing and distance learning. Learning activities will move to individualized, just-in-time learning approaches and “hybrid” classes. Most universities’ assessment of learning will take into account more individually-oriented outcomes and capacities that are relevant to subject mastery. Requirements for graduation will be significantly shifted to customized outcomes. Higher education’s destination by 2020

45. Elon University School of Communications In 2020, higher ed will not be much different. While people will be accessing more resources through teleconferencing and personal wireless smart devices, most universities will mostly require in-person, on-campus attendance of students most of the time at courses featuring a lot of traditional lectures. Universities’ assessment of learning and their requirements for graduation will be about the same as they are now. By 2020, higher ed will be quite different. There will be mass adoption of teleconferencing and distance learning. Learning activities will move to individualized, just-in-time learning approaches and “hybrid” classes. Most universities’ assessment of learning will take into account more individually-oriented outcomes and capacities that are relevant to subject mastery. Requirements for graduation will be significantly shifted to customized outcomes. Higher education’s destination by 2020

46. Elon University School of Communications By 2020, most people will have embraced and fully adopted the use of smart-device swiping for purchases they make, nearly eliminating the need for cash or credit cards. People will trust and rely on personal hardware and software for handling monetary transactions over the Internet and in stores. Cash and credit cards will have mostly disappeared from many of the transactions that occur in advanced countries. The future of money: What IS your wallet?

47. Elon University School of Communications People will not trust the use of NFC devices and there will not be major conversion of money to an all-digital-all-the-time format. By 2020, it will not have gained a lot of traction. The security implications raise too many concerns. And people are resistant to letting technology companies learn even more about their personal purchasing habits. Cash and credit cards will still be the dominant method of carrying out transactions in advanced countries. The future of money: What IS your wallet?

48. Elon University School of Communications By 2020, most people will have embraced and fully adopted the use of smart-device swiping for purchases they make, nearly eliminating the need for cash or credit cards. People will trust and rely on personal hardware and software for handling monetary transactions over the Internet and in stores. Cash and credit cards will have mostly disappeared from many of the transactions that occur in advanced countries. People will not trust the use of NFC devices and there will not be major conversion of money to an all-digital-all-the-time format. By 2020, it will not have gained a lot of traction. The security implications raise too many concerns. And people are resistant to letting technology companies learn even more about their personal purchasing habits. Cash and credit cards will still be the dominant method of carrying out transactions in advanced countries. The future of money: What IS your wallet?

49. Elon University School of Communications In 2020, most people will prefer to use specific apps accessible by Internet connection to accomplish most online work, play, communication, and content creation. Most industry innovation and activity will be devoted to apps development and updates, and use of apps will occupy the majority of technology-users’ time. There will be a widespread belief that the World Wide Web is less important than in the past. Apps vs. Web: Winner?

50. Elon University School of Communications In 2020, the open Web continues to thrive and grow as a vibrant place where most people do most of their work, play, communication, and content creation. Apps accessed through iPads, Kindles, Nooks, smartphones, and their progeny – the online tools GigaOM referred to as “the anti-Internet” – will be useful as specialized options. There will be a widespread belief that, compared to apps, the Web is more important and useful. Apps vs. Web: Winner?

51. Elon University School of Communications In 2020, most people will prefer to use specific apps accessible by Internet connection to accomplish most online work, play, communication, and content creation. Most industry innovation and activity will be devoted to apps development and updates, and use of apps will occupy the majority of technology-users’ time. There will be a widespread belief that the World Wide Web is less important than in the past. In 2020, the open Web continues to thrive and grow as a vibrant place where most people do most of their work, play, communication, and content creation. Apps accessed through iPads, Kindles, Nooks, smartphones, and their progeny – the online tools GigaOM referred to as “the anti-Internet” – will be useful as specialized options. There will be a widespread belief that, compared to apps, the Web is more important and useful. Apps vs. Web: Winner?

52. Elon University School of Communications The “Internet of Things” and human and machine analysis of large data sets will improve social, political, and economic intelligence by 2020. The rise of what is known as “Big Data” will facilitate “ nowcasting ” (real-time “ forecasting ” ); development of “ inferential software ” ; and the creation of algorithms for advanced correlations that enable new understanding of the world. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a positive. Influence of Big Data, Internet of Things in 2020

53. Elon University School of Communications The “Internet of Things” and human and machine analysis of large data sets will cause more problems than it solves by 2020. The existence of huge data sets for analysis will engender false confidence in our predictive powers and will lead many to make significant and hurtful mistakes. Moreover, analysis of Big Data will be misused by powerful people and institutions with selfish agendas. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a big negative. Influence of Big Data, Internet of Things in 2020

54. Elon University School of Communications The “Internet of Things” and human and machine analysis of large data sets will improve social, political, and economic intelligence by 2020. The rise of what is known as “Big Data” will facilitate “ nowcasting ” (real-time “ forecasting ” ); development of “ inferential software ” ; and the creation of algorithms for advanced correlations that enable new understanding of the world. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a positive. The “Internet of Things” and human and machine analysis of large data sets will cause more problems than it solves by 2020. The existence of huge data sets for analysis will engender false confidence in our predictive powers and will lead many to make significant and hurtful mistakes. Moreover, analysis of Big Data will be misused by powerful people and institutions with selfish agendas. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a big negative. Influence of Big Data, Internet of Things in 2020

55. Elon University School of Communications By 2020, gamification (the use of games, feedback loops, rewards to spur interaction/boost engagement, loyalty, fun and/or learning) will not be implemented in most everyday digital activities for most people. While game use and game-like structures will remain an important segment of the communications scene and will have been adopted in new ways, the gamification of other aspects of communications will not really have advanced much. Getting into the gamification?

56. Elon University School of Communications By 2020, there will have been significant advances in the adoption and use of gamification. It will be making waves on the communications scene and will have been implemented in many new ways for education, health, work, and other aspects of human connection and it will play a role in the everyday activities of many of the people who are actively using communications networks in their daily lives. Getting into the gamification?

57. Elon University School of Communications By 2020, gamification (the use of games, feedback loops, rewards to spur interaction/boost engagement, loyalty, fun and/or learning) will not be implemented in most everyday digital activities for most people. While game use and game-like structures will remain an important segment of the communications scene and will have been adopted in new ways, the gamification of other aspects of communications will not really have advanced much. By 2020, there will have been significant advances in the adoption and use of gamification. It will be making waves on the communications scene and will have been implemented in many new ways for education, health, work, and other aspects of human connection and it will play a role in the everyday activities of many of the people who are actively using communications networks in their daily lives. Getting into the gamification?

58. Elon University School of Communications By 2020, the connected household has become a model of efficiency, as people are able to manage consumption of resources (electricity, water, food, even bandwidth) in ways that place less of a burden on the environment while saving households money. Thanks to what is known as “Smart Systems,” the “Home of the Future” that has often been foretold is coming closer and closer to becoming a reality. The fate of “smart systems”

59. Elon University School of Communications By 2020, most initiatives to embed IP-enabled devices in the home have failed due to difficulties in gaining consumer trust and because of the complexities in using new services. As a result, the home of 2020 looks about the same as the home of 2011 in terms of resource consumption and management. Once again, the “Home of the Future” does not come to resemble the future projected in the recent past. The fate of “smart systems”

60. Elon University School of Communications By 2020, the connected household has become a model of efficiency, as people are able to manage consumption of resources (electricity, water, food, even bandwidth) in ways that place less of a burden on the environment while saving households money. Thanks to what is known as “Smart Systems,” the “Home of the Future” that has often been foretold is coming closer and closer to becoming a reality. By 2020, most initiatives to embed IP-enabled devices in the home have failed due to difficulties in gaining consumer trust and because of the complexities in using new services. As a result, the home of 2020 looks about the same as the home of 2011 in terms of resource consumption and management. Once again, the “Home of the Future” does not come to resemble the future projected in the recent past. The fate of “smart systems”

61. Elon University School of Communications In 2020, tech firms with HQs in democratic countries will be expected to abide by a set of norms - for instance, the "Responsibility to Protect” citizens being attacked or challenged by governments. In this world, for instance, a Western telecom firm would not be able to selectively monitor or block the Internet activity of protestors at the behest of an authoritarian government without significant penalties in other markets. Corporate responsibility: Which road will be taken?

62. Elon University School of Communications In 2020, technology firms headquartered in democratic countries will have taken steps to minimize their usefulness as tools for political organizing by dissidents. They will reason that too much association with sensitive activities will put them in disfavor with autocratic governments. Indeed, in this world, commercial firms derive significant income from filtering and editing their services on behalf of the world's authoritarian regimes. Corporate responsibility: Which road will be taken?

63. Elon University School of Communications In 2020, tech firms with HQs in democratic countries will be expected to abide by a set of norms - for instance, the "Responsibility to Protect” citizens being attacked or challenged by governments. In this world, for instance, a Western telecom firm would not be able to selectively monitor or block the Internet activity of protestors at the behest of an authoritarian government without significant penalties in other markets. In 2020, technology firms headquartered in democratic countries will have taken steps to minimize their usefulness as tools for political organizing by dissidents. They will reason that too much association with sensitive activities will put them in disfavor with autocratic governments. Indeed, in this world, commercial firms derive significant income from filtering and editing their services on behalf of the world's authoritarian regimes. Corporate responsibility: Which road will be taken?

64. Elon University School of Communications The Pew Internet Project and the Imagining the Internet Center are facilitating regular expert technology conversations about the likely future evolution of the Internet. Due to your active interest in key issues, you are invited to participate. We also strongly encourage the sharing of the survey link with other people in your circles who have some expertise. You will find the survey here: http://survey.fs.elon.edu/cgi-bin/qwebcorporate.cgi?9JREK7 Pew-Elon Expert Survey Invitation: