1. “CHANCE-SEEKING”
Emanuele Bardone
bardone@tlu.ee
http://chanceseeking.wordpress.com

2. Stating the
problem....
“[...] I don’t want to know what this will mean after I have acted.
I want to know what this means now that I’m going to act, now,
at this very moment that I’m going to create reality – a new
reality. What should I condemn? What should I edifice? Whom
should I oppose? Whom should I love?” Altiero Spinelli
Have you ever been in such a situation? How have you
approached it?

3. A simple definition to begin
with
Chance-seeking concerns all those situations in which, while making
decisions or choose this or that course of action, we inevitably have to face
the uncertainty of future prospects - what we can only know in the form of notyet

4. Chance-seeking is both a methodological tool and an analytical
one:
As a methodological tool, it deals with how to face the
problem
As an analytical tool, it deals with how to describe this
problem

5. Chance-seeking as a methodological
tool
Chance-seeking is not predictive;
Chance-seeking is not
explanatory.
It’s exploratory

6. Chance-seeking is not
predictive

7. A B M C D M E F M...
What comes
next?
...G H M I J M...

8. Pattern extrapolation
“The first letter in every triad is next in the alphabet
to the second letter in the proceeding triad, and the
second letter in the triad is next in the alphabet to
the first.”
H.A. Simon, The Sciences of Artificial

9. A B M C D M E F M...
...G H M I J M
pattern extrapolation looks
backwards
...G H M I J M can be the right answer, if we assume
that the future will be the same as the past.

10. But does the past repeat itself?

11. A B M C D M E F M...
...A random sequence (P S Y V J A) is more likely to be the right one

12. When we have to predict future happenings, we
can only rely on what we know. And what we
know always regards what is (the) past.
If we can reasonably assume that future
happenings - chance - will scarcely affect the
future, then the past can be taken as
representative of the future.
If we don’t know what will affect future events
(because that is in and of the future), then there’s
no way that we can rely on prediction.

13. Every morning I wake up and I have breakfast with my wife. Is
that something that I can reasonably assume?

14. How about
learning?

15. Chance-seeking is not
explanatory

16. The serendipitous story of the invention of
Post-it
Spencer Silver – the inventor of post-it note – at the time was working at
3M, a company producing tapes and other forms of glue.
Silver’s goal was to try to develop a new adhesive, which had to be
stronger than the one already available on the market. After some
attempt Silver failed miserably: what he did was to develop not a superstrong adhesive, but a super-weak one. As a result, any object on which
this super-weak adhesive was applied could stick to other objects, but at
the same time it could easily be lifted off.
For four years his invention was shelved until another 3M scientist named
Arthur Fry found out the way to make use of it. Fry was part of the
church’s choir and he realized that Silver’s invention could be used for
creating markers which could keep his place in the hymnal without failing
out of the book every now and then. Fry successfully applied Silver’s super
weak adhesive to his markers and that was the first step towards one of
the most useful inventions in the history of office equipment.

17. All single events in the Post-it story makes sense
after events have occurred.
We can explain every single bit but only
retrospectively, by looking backward, in the light of
what had happened later

18. Methodologically speaking, chance-seeking is an
exploratory tool - a springboard type of instrument. It
serves the purpose of looking forward

19. Chance-seeking as an analytical
tool
What do we do when our decisions and behavioral
options are so much affected by the uncertainty of the
future?

20. Some example of chance-seeking

21. Example number
1

22. Correct translation

23. Example number
2

24. Using a
blog
A student
said:
I’ve realized only quite recently that I can use my study blog to
have a better vision of my study load. It’s easier to keep track of
my progress and I can see how much time I have dedicated/am
dedicating to each course.
How did that
happen?

25. How did that
happen?
The student is a freelance designer and illustrator blogging for
promoting and selling her artwork
I don’t like blogs that are not alive
She decided to post all other assignments that were shared
using other applications (email or dropbox).
In December all university-related activities wrapped up, so
no new assignments.
She spent some time on extra-curricular activities. She "pushed
blogging even further" and started posting "everything" related to
her studies and university life.

26. How about
you?

27. Chance seeking is tinkering on chance
events
C
recognition
an action is taken to amplify
potentials of positive
significance
iterative circularity
possibilities of
unanticipated
observations

28. Analytical features of chanceseeking
No specific goal/plan
Tinkering not planning
Strategic Priority to Immediate and marginal concerns - no bird’s eye view
No clear distinction between means and ends
Purposive without being predictive
The agent steps in the process along with his/her identity, values,
knowledge and ignorance, experience and inexperience
Focus on the capacity of acting in situation
Affordances as latent opportunities
Appropriative and re-appropriative response

29. Thank
you! as chancePlease, share your experiences
seekers!
bardone@tlu.ee
http://chanceseeking.wordpress.com