"2D and 3D Sensing: Markets, Applications, and Technologies," a Presentation from Yole Développement

From Technologies to Markets
© 2019
2D and 3D
Sensing: Markets,
Applications and
Technologies
Guillaume GIRARDIN, Division Director, Yole Développement
Vision Industry andTechnology Forum
EmbeddedVision Alliance
Santa Clara, Sept 2019

2©2019 | www.yole.fr | About Yole Développement
YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT – FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Semiconductor
Manufacturing & Computing
› Advanced Packaging, Assembly & Substrates
› Semiconductor Manufacturing
› Memory
› Computing
Power & Wireless
› RF Devices & Technologies
› Compound Semiconductors & Emerging Materials
› Power Electronics
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Photonics & Sensing
› Photonics
› Lighting
› Imaging
› Sensing & Actuating
› Display
girardin@yole.fr

4
Embedded 3D
computationalPhotography
and video
MOBILE PHONE MARKET TRENDS
Mobile phone cameras have become multi-sensor optronics interfaces
3D cameras
on all devices
is still at an
early stage.
Number of sensors
1 sensor
2 sensors
3 sensors
3+ sensors
20202012 2014 2016 2018 2022
• Main and
sub-camera
• LED flash
• Main and
sub camera
• Range finder
• LED flash
Catching up with
DSLR and video
cameras
New embedded 3D imaging
Courtesy of Panono
Courtesy of Sony
Embedded 3D
interactive
The world becomes interactive
• Triple/Dual main
and sub-camera
• 3D mapping
• VR localization
Courtesy of Microsoft
• Dual main or
sub-camera
• 3D mapping
• LED illuminator
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Status of the CMOS image sensor industryEmbedded Vision Alliance Vision Industry and Technology Forum | www.yole.fr | ©2019

5
MOBILE APPLICATIONS - 3D IMAGING AND SENSING
3D sensing is the magic bullet for mobile user interface
Synergies
between
current
application
trends.
Biometry
Emoticons Selfies
Facial
expressions
Personalized
avatars
Picture
enhancement
Automatic
shutter &
autofocus
Virtual chatrooms
Social platforms
Fast & secure
unlocking
Mobile
payments
:-)
3D sensing as a
new mobile
user interface
Embedded Vision Alliance Vision Industry and Technology Forum | www.yole.fr | ©2019

6
MOBILE MARKETTREND
The race for multiple cameras on both sides of the phone
3D sensing
cameras are
part of the
play
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e
2012 - 2024 Mobile camera volume breakdown (in %)
by camera type
Rear single camera Rear dual camera Rear triple camera Rear 3D camera Front single camera Front 3D camera Front Triple camera
Front 3D
Rear 3D

7
2018 CAMERA MODULE MARKET SHARE (IN %)
Fragmented
marketplace
Slowly moving
towards
consolidation

8
CAMERA MODULE - MARKET TREND
Apple iPhone lineup - imaging specification and cost
CIS cost is
roughly
40% of
CCM cost
CIS
silicon
cost ($)
2008 201820142010 2012 2016
VGA
3G
4S
5S
8Mp
1.2Mp
6S Plus
12Mp
2Mp
7 Plus
12Mp
12Mp
7Mp
8 Plus
12Mp
1.2Mp GS
7Mp
Xs
12Mp
$2
$4
$2 $3 $4 $6 $6 $6 $11 $15
2020 2022
---
>$20
---
--- ToF?
--- GS
---
--- EB?
--- GS
---
---
---
--- ToF?
---
Rear
(world)
Front
(selfie)
Resolution race -
from 1/4’’ to 1/3’’
Catch-up
with the
selfie trend
Shrink
the notch
Time
x10 in 12 years
3Mp
5Mp
8Mp
$6
Always-on
awareness?
2Mp
Dual zoom
3D SL
3DToF
for AR?

9
MOBILE MARKET TREND - 3D CAMERA ADOPTION SCENARIO
Adoption
curve of
smartphone
features are
similar
Volume in Munits 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e CAGR
Rear 3D Module-ToF 1 4 50 117 199 285 365 421 117%
Front 3D Module-ToF 0 1 16 38 77 116 155 195 140%
Front 3D Module-SL 20 75 107 165 205 205 200 200 17%

10
3D IMAGING & SENSING MARKET FORECAST
From high end
to consumer
revenues
increase x9
fold

11
3D SENSING SYSTEM - STRUCTURED LIGHT
The overall
system is
extremely
complex
Comparison
$15
$14
$13
$16

12
PIXEL SIZE ROADMAP
Shrinking with time
Depending
on the
technology,
the
potential
for pixel
shrink
varies. 3 µm Omnivision
1/5” GS (5T) Pixel
17.5 µm PMD Infineon
3DToF Pixel
0.75
1.5
3.0
6.0
12
24
50
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Hiding large digital
part below the
sensitive part of the
pixel gives great size
reduction potential
Time
Pixel Size (µm)
log scale
2.8 µm STM
NIR GS iPhone X
12 - 10 µm Sony Softkinetic
3DToF Pixel
Time of Flight Pixel
Global Shutter Pixel
For Stereo and Structured Light
Rolling Shutter Pixel
For Imaging
ToF Pixels
with 3D stacking
possible entry in mobile
application for high
performance applications
1 µm Sony
Quantum Dots
Global Shutter could
enter in size or cost
critical applications
1.1 µm GS
Invisage-Apple

14
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET FORECAST
ADAS and
robotic cars
are not
competing
with one
another.

15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
AUTOMOTIVE CAMERA MARKET TREND
Long-term market roadmap for ADAS and viewing cameras
ADAS’
functionality
will boost ASP
$30
$20
$10
30 x 30mm²
10 x 10mm²
20 x 20mm²
Module size
& cost
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
$6B$4B $10B $15B$2B
Yole Développement © Mai 2019
For viewing
cameras:
volume and the
transition
towards ADAS will
maintain market
momentum
1 - 3 cameras
per car
~$30 - $100
4 - 6 viewing cameras
per car
~$100 system
For ADAS cameras:
technology-driven
market will keep the
price high
1 - 3 forward ADAS
cameras per car
~$100 system
~$5B
market
150M cameras
+
~10B market
500M cameras
Automotive
camera market

16
MARKET BREAKDOWN - ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE
2018 - main automotive imaging applications

17
Camera module
Viewing
$3,325
38%
Camera module
Sensing
$1,600
18%
Vision processor
Sensing
$2,400
27%
ISPViewing
$1,500
17%
2024e - automotive imaging (in $M)
$1,845
43%
$660
15%
$1,100
25%
$745
17%
2018 - automotive imaging (in $M)
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET FORECAST
2018 - 2024 automotive imaging market
Within
automotive
imaging,ADAS
is now
growing faster
than viewing
$4.3B
$8.7B
Total x2.0
~12.1% CAGR 2018-2024
ADAS
imaging
40%
ADAS imaging
45%
For viewing
55%
For viewing
60%
Semiconductor device perspective : Camera module & Image processing
Robotic vehicles not accounted

18
COMPUTING FOR AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
10TOPS
at 10Watts
equates to an
efficiency of
1TOPS/W.

20
TRENDS IN MV IMAGE SENSORS
High dynamic range
Cameras must extract information from a
non-saturated image and must
compensate for rapid illumination changes
(in Intelligent Traffic subsystems and
Reflective Surface Inspection)
• Low noise (FPN, read noise).
• CMOS using basic integrated image
processing are more appropriate for
very high dynamic range applications.
• Dynamic range >100dB.
Low light sensitivity
Sensor should operate in light-starved
environment for high-speed imaging and
for creating lighting economies.
• High sensitivity: High QE, high fill
factor.
• Trend towards back-side Illuminated
sensors.
• Low noise.
NIR capability
Trend towards night vision in High-End
Surveillance, IntelligentTraffic Systems, and
IR Inspection in some specific applications
like Solar Panel Inspection
• High Quantum Efficiency at 900 nm.
Global shutter
Fast-moving objects should be imaged
without motion distortion.
• Global shutter is a must-have feature
for all high-speed applications.
• Current challenge is to decrease global
shutter noise.
Four image
sensors
trends
NB: These technologies already exist,
but are constantly subject to incremental
innovations

22
BOTTLENECKS AND THE FUTURE OF AUTOMATION
Mobility Dexterity
Autonomous
cars and trucks
Autonomous
haul trucks
Robotic
arms
Robotic
hands
GPS
Autonomous haul trucks for
mining have already been
tested in several locations.
Radar
LiDAR
GPS Radar
LiDAR Machine
vision
3D
vision
Enabler Bottleneck
Legend
Haptic
sensing
Encoder
Object
grabbing
Autonomous cars and
trucks will benefit from an
attractive business model
and political support.
Several bottlenecks are preventing the
expansion of dexterous manipulation in
applications such as logistics, factory, and
health care.
ML
ML
ML

23
EVOLUTION OF MACHINEVISION REVENUES
Factory automation
$1.1B
Factory automation
$1.2B
CAGR 1%
Robotic vehicle
$689M
CAGR 104%
Robotic vehicle
$9M
Medical
$135M
Medical
$180M
CAGR 4.9%
Agriculture
$89M
Agriculture
$213M
CAGR 16%
Traffic
$333M
Traffic
$410M
CAGR 3.5%
Year 2017
Total $2.2B
Year 2023
Total $3.3B
CAGR 7.5%
Microscopy
$179M
Microscopy
$213M
CAGR 3%
Sports
$62M
Sports
$75M
CAGR 3%
Other
$224M
Other
$350M
CAGR 7.7%
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

25
NEUROMORPHIC SENSING AND COMPUTING
Better memory access: In-memory computing
Bio-inspired computing: Neuromorphic computing.
Less and better data: Neuromorphic sensing.
Adapted from ‘‘The future of electronics based on memristive systems”
Mohammed A. Zidan,John Paul Strachan&Wei D. Lu Nature Electronics 2018
A few roadblocks lie ahead for artificial intelligence.
Logarithmic growth would
be limited by physical
constraints.
The semiconductor industry
will have to adapt by finding
new ways to scale up.

26
Hydraulic parallel
EVENT-BASED/NEUROMORPHIC IMAGE SENSORS
Line
select Analog-to-Digital
column converter
Video output is a matrix of
bytes every ~30ms seconds.
Memory
Spike
generators
- analogous
to neurons.
Array
of
light-
receiving
pixels.
Array of light
receiving pixels
Video output is a
continuous stream of
‘events’; the location of
the pixel which ‘spiked’.
Conventional CIS
architecture
Light flux
For each pixel
a measurement
is performed for
every given time
interval.
For each pixel
one ‘spike’
is sent when a
new level
is reached.
Hydraulic parallel
Biological parallel
t1: 01001100
t2: 01001100
t3 : 01001101
t4 : 01001101
t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
neuron
Light flux
Neuromorphic
‘event-based’ CIS
Biologically
inspired

27
NEUROMORPHIC SENSING AND COMPUTING FORECAST 2018-2034
Market
revenue
breakdown
in %, split by
market
segment

28
NEUROMORPHIC SENSING AND COMPUTING FORECAST
2024
is expected to
be the start of
the
neuromorphic
revolution.
Split by market segment, in $M.
2024
(Inner circle)
$112M

29
NEUROMORPHIC COMPUTING - COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 2019

30
- 3D sensing is been introduced for biometry feature 2 years ago, now, it started to be mainly
integrated into rear-side of the phone for photography enhancement and post-production effect
- 3D market should reach $6B market value next year
- Within automotive imaging,ADAS is now growing faster than viewing
- Robotic vehicles require processing beyond the range of 100TOPS
- It is highly probable that ADAS level 3 will require a significant jump in overall computing
performance
- Mobile and industrial segments should be the first applications to adopt neuromorphic technology
- 2024 is expected to be the start of the neuromorphic revolution
SYNTHESIS

31
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32
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34
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Patent assessment
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innovative optical systems
www.piseo.fr
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35
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"2D and 3D Sensing: Markets, Applications, and Technologies," a Presentation from Yole Développement