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Innovation in the
Aluminum Industry

Platts Aluminum Symposium
January 20-22, 2013
Jeff Henderson
     Director of Marketing & Business Development
     Sapa Extrusions North America, Inc.


     Mr. Henderson is responsible for all of Sapa North
     America’s branding, commercial strategies, and
     development of new business and applications using
     aluminum extrusions. He previously served as the
     General Manager of Sapa’s extrusion facility in Delhi,
     LA. Mr. Henderson joined Sapa from Alcoa when
     Sapa acquired Alcoa’s soft alloy extrusion facilities in
     North America and Europe. He studied Business
     Administration at Kansas University.




Sapa Extrusions
Is it safe to come outside yet?




       Albeit slowly, the economy is improving
       Order books have returned to respectable levels
       Customers are starting to speak more optimistically

       Heck, even the billet suppliers are busy….

       So, all must be well in the world, right?

       (Whew, that was quite a rough patch, huh?)


                  Not so fast, folks….
Sapa Extrusions
The US extrusion industry is highly cyclical and
is hit harder than average in economic downturns


                                     Correlation Between YoY US Extrusion Market Growth and US GDP Growth


                          35%        R2 = 0.79                                                                                                           Actual Forecast
                                     Amp Δ = 6.7 ppt

                          25%
Year On Year Growth (%)




                                                                                                                                                           Extrusion
                          15%
                                                                                                                                                           GDP

                           5%

                          -5% 1960       1965        1970         1975         1980         1985         1990        1995       2000       2005       2010

                          -15%

                          -25%

                          -35%
                                        Historical data indicates high correlation between                 Extrusion growth shows similar period length as
                                         extrusion market growth and overall economic                        GDP growth but a significantly higher amplitude
                                         growth (R2 = 0.79 from 1960 to 2011)                                (Average Amplitude Δ = 6.7 percentage points1))



        Sapa Extrusions                   (1) Excluding outliers
                                          Source: Aluminum Association, Global Insight (November 2012)
How did we become a
commodity so fast?
  Aluminum in its current form was invented in 1886 -Only 127 years ago

  The first aluminum extrusion produced in NA occurred in 1904

  Production increased dramatically in WW 2 and continued to grow with
 residential building applications during the post-war boom years

 Over the next few decades usage expanded as extruders introduced
 new design concepts to industries all across the manufacturing spectrum


        However in more recent times, our roots as an
     entrepreneurially driven product innovating industry
                          fell away….


Sapa Extrusions
The transportation market demonstrates the impact to our
industry when we successfully penetrate an end use
segment – Conversely the B&C market shows the opposite

        Aluminum Extrusion Lbs in Transportation
               Applications 1960 - 2009
1,600
1,400
1,200
                                                                          Demand has
1,000
  800                                                                    grown over 9x
  600
  400
  200
                                                                          from 1960 to
   -
                                                                         latest peak in
                                                                             2006…

                                                                         Lack of effort
                                   Ext Lb Decline '01-'09
                                   Alum Wdw Decline '01-'09
                                                               -47.6%
                                                               -43.1%
                                                                            leads to
                                   Vinyl Wdw Decline '01-'09   -15.5%   massive decline
                                                                         in demand…

Sapa Extrusions
Exciting opportunities exist for our industry



                              Light Weight Vehicles
                              Busses & Trucks
       Transportation
                              Heavy Duty Trucks
                              Agricultural Equipment

                              Commercial/Architectural
        Construction
                              Infrastructure

                              Thermal Management
        Electrical Apps       Lighting
                              Solar & Other Renewal Energy
                              Copper to Aluminum Conversion

Sapa Extrusions
Automotive: The Growth Market for Aluminum
   2010 - 2020

                                     50 Years of Uninterrupted
                                        Aluminum Growth


            12%                                                                                           11.3%
                                                                                              10.0%                 394
            10%                                                                                                   Pounds
                                                                                      8.8%
                                                                              7.8%
             8%                                                                              334
                                                                      6.9%
                                                               6.1%                     Pounds
             6%               77                       5.1%
                                                4.5%
                            Pounds
                                        3.9%
             4%
                      2.0%     2.1%
             2%
                                                                                Historical     Forecast

             0%
     Calendar Year   1970     1975     1980    1985    1990   1995    2000   2005     2010F    2015F      2020F


                                        Aluminum Share as Percentage of Curb Weight




Sapa Extrusions
Automotive applications are abundant
for Aluminum Extruders


     A recent study by Ducker Worldwide indicates the average car or light truck produced in North
     America in 2012 will contain 343 pounds of aluminum, 9% of average curb weight. 27 pounds
     will be aluminum extrusion. As auto makers continue to improve fuel efficiency, Ducker expects
     overall aluminum content to increase to 550 pounds, and extrusion content to grow to 48
     pounds, by 2025. But extrusion plays a big role in transportation beyond autos (more)




Typical car/light truck
extrusion applications

                             Turbo charger Rotor


                     Bumper beam & Crush bos




                                                                             Steering Column Bracket


                          Engine/Frame Isolators                                Links:
                                                                                Ford GT
                                                                                ‘12 Mercedes
Sapa Extrusions                                                                 Twisted Power
     Illustration: Sapa Profiles                                                www.aluminumintransportation.org
The aluminum industry must continue to find ways to
promote the usage of aluminum otherwise we will
continue to be hostage to the business cycle
  35%

  25%

  15%

   5%

  -5% 1960        1965   1970    1975   1980       1985         1990         1995         2000         2005      2010

 -15%

 -25%

 -35%




                  Which path will WE choose?
        Estimated 2010 Demand by End                                Estimated 2020 Demand by End
                      Use                                                         Use
            Total = 2.98 Billion Lbs                                    Total = 4.83 Billion Lbs

             B&C                         Ind                                                                   Ind
             1267                                                         B&C                                 1586
                                        986                               1691
             42%                        33%                                                                   36%
                                                                          39%
                                Trans                                                                         Trans
                                 731                                                                          1106
                                          2020 Estimate based on:
Sapa Extrusions                 25%       25 lb per Car increase in Auto                                      25%
                                          Average Housing build units – Return to 2003 % of alum windows
                                          50% of Solar projection with middle range alum %

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Sapa platts presentation innovation in the aluminum industry 2013

  • 1. Innovation in the Aluminum Industry Platts Aluminum Symposium January 20-22, 2013
  • 2. Jeff Henderson Director of Marketing & Business Development Sapa Extrusions North America, Inc. Mr. Henderson is responsible for all of Sapa North America’s branding, commercial strategies, and development of new business and applications using aluminum extrusions. He previously served as the General Manager of Sapa’s extrusion facility in Delhi, LA. Mr. Henderson joined Sapa from Alcoa when Sapa acquired Alcoa’s soft alloy extrusion facilities in North America and Europe. He studied Business Administration at Kansas University. Sapa Extrusions
  • 3. Is it safe to come outside yet? Albeit slowly, the economy is improving Order books have returned to respectable levels Customers are starting to speak more optimistically Heck, even the billet suppliers are busy…. So, all must be well in the world, right? (Whew, that was quite a rough patch, huh?) Not so fast, folks…. Sapa Extrusions
  • 4. The US extrusion industry is highly cyclical and is hit harder than average in economic downturns Correlation Between YoY US Extrusion Market Growth and US GDP Growth 35% R2 = 0.79 Actual Forecast Amp Δ = 6.7 ppt 25% Year On Year Growth (%) Extrusion 15% GDP 5% -5% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -15% -25% -35%  Historical data indicates high correlation between  Extrusion growth shows similar period length as extrusion market growth and overall economic GDP growth but a significantly higher amplitude growth (R2 = 0.79 from 1960 to 2011) (Average Amplitude Δ = 6.7 percentage points1)) Sapa Extrusions (1) Excluding outliers Source: Aluminum Association, Global Insight (November 2012)
  • 5. How did we become a commodity so fast?  Aluminum in its current form was invented in 1886 -Only 127 years ago  The first aluminum extrusion produced in NA occurred in 1904  Production increased dramatically in WW 2 and continued to grow with residential building applications during the post-war boom years Over the next few decades usage expanded as extruders introduced new design concepts to industries all across the manufacturing spectrum However in more recent times, our roots as an entrepreneurially driven product innovating industry fell away…. Sapa Extrusions
  • 6. The transportation market demonstrates the impact to our industry when we successfully penetrate an end use segment – Conversely the B&C market shows the opposite Aluminum Extrusion Lbs in Transportation Applications 1960 - 2009 1,600 1,400 1,200 Demand has 1,000 800 grown over 9x 600 400 200 from 1960 to - latest peak in 2006… Lack of effort Ext Lb Decline '01-'09 Alum Wdw Decline '01-'09 -47.6% -43.1% leads to Vinyl Wdw Decline '01-'09 -15.5% massive decline in demand… Sapa Extrusions
  • 7. Exciting opportunities exist for our industry  Light Weight Vehicles  Busses & Trucks Transportation  Heavy Duty Trucks  Agricultural Equipment  Commercial/Architectural Construction  Infrastructure  Thermal Management Electrical Apps  Lighting  Solar & Other Renewal Energy  Copper to Aluminum Conversion Sapa Extrusions
  • 8. Automotive: The Growth Market for Aluminum 2010 - 2020 50 Years of Uninterrupted Aluminum Growth 12% 11.3% 10.0% 394 10% Pounds 8.8% 7.8% 8% 334 6.9% 6.1% Pounds 6% 77 5.1% 4.5% Pounds 3.9% 4% 2.0% 2.1% 2% Historical Forecast 0% Calendar Year 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010F 2015F 2020F Aluminum Share as Percentage of Curb Weight Sapa Extrusions
  • 9. Automotive applications are abundant for Aluminum Extruders A recent study by Ducker Worldwide indicates the average car or light truck produced in North America in 2012 will contain 343 pounds of aluminum, 9% of average curb weight. 27 pounds will be aluminum extrusion. As auto makers continue to improve fuel efficiency, Ducker expects overall aluminum content to increase to 550 pounds, and extrusion content to grow to 48 pounds, by 2025. But extrusion plays a big role in transportation beyond autos (more) Typical car/light truck extrusion applications Turbo charger Rotor Bumper beam & Crush bos Steering Column Bracket Engine/Frame Isolators Links: Ford GT ‘12 Mercedes Sapa Extrusions Twisted Power Illustration: Sapa Profiles www.aluminumintransportation.org
  • 10. The aluminum industry must continue to find ways to promote the usage of aluminum otherwise we will continue to be hostage to the business cycle 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -15% -25% -35% Which path will WE choose? Estimated 2010 Demand by End Estimated 2020 Demand by End Use Use Total = 2.98 Billion Lbs Total = 4.83 Billion Lbs B&C Ind Ind 1267 B&C 1586 986 1691 42% 33% 36% 39% Trans Trans 731 1106 2020 Estimate based on: Sapa Extrusions 25% 25 lb per Car increase in Auto 25% Average Housing build units – Return to 2003 % of alum windows 50% of Solar projection with middle range alum %