2. Jeff Henderson
Director of Marketing & Business Development
Sapa Extrusions North America, Inc.
Mr. Henderson is responsible for all of Sapa North
America’s branding, commercial strategies, and
development of new business and applications using
aluminum extrusions. He previously served as the
General Manager of Sapa’s extrusion facility in Delhi,
LA. Mr. Henderson joined Sapa from Alcoa when
Sapa acquired Alcoa’s soft alloy extrusion facilities in
North America and Europe. He studied Business
Administration at Kansas University.
Sapa Extrusions
3. Is it safe to come outside yet?
Albeit slowly, the economy is improving
Order books have returned to respectable levels
Customers are starting to speak more optimistically
Heck, even the billet suppliers are busy….
So, all must be well in the world, right?
(Whew, that was quite a rough patch, huh?)
Not so fast, folks….
Sapa Extrusions
4. The US extrusion industry is highly cyclical and
is hit harder than average in economic downturns
Correlation Between YoY US Extrusion Market Growth and US GDP Growth
35% R2 = 0.79 Actual Forecast
Amp Δ = 6.7 ppt
25%
Year On Year Growth (%)
Extrusion
15%
GDP
5%
-5% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-15%
-25%
-35%
Historical data indicates high correlation between Extrusion growth shows similar period length as
extrusion market growth and overall economic GDP growth but a significantly higher amplitude
growth (R2 = 0.79 from 1960 to 2011) (Average Amplitude Δ = 6.7 percentage points1))
Sapa Extrusions (1) Excluding outliers
Source: Aluminum Association, Global Insight (November 2012)
5. How did we become a
commodity so fast?
Aluminum in its current form was invented in 1886 -Only 127 years ago
The first aluminum extrusion produced in NA occurred in 1904
Production increased dramatically in WW 2 and continued to grow with
residential building applications during the post-war boom years
Over the next few decades usage expanded as extruders introduced
new design concepts to industries all across the manufacturing spectrum
However in more recent times, our roots as an
entrepreneurially driven product innovating industry
fell away….
Sapa Extrusions
6. The transportation market demonstrates the impact to our
industry when we successfully penetrate an end use
segment – Conversely the B&C market shows the opposite
Aluminum Extrusion Lbs in Transportation
Applications 1960 - 2009
1,600
1,400
1,200
Demand has
1,000
800 grown over 9x
600
400
200
from 1960 to
-
latest peak in
2006…
Lack of effort
Ext Lb Decline '01-'09
Alum Wdw Decline '01-'09
-47.6%
-43.1%
leads to
Vinyl Wdw Decline '01-'09 -15.5% massive decline
in demand…
Sapa Extrusions
7. Exciting opportunities exist for our industry
Light Weight Vehicles
Busses & Trucks
Transportation
Heavy Duty Trucks
Agricultural Equipment
Commercial/Architectural
Construction
Infrastructure
Thermal Management
Electrical Apps Lighting
Solar & Other Renewal Energy
Copper to Aluminum Conversion
Sapa Extrusions
8. Automotive: The Growth Market for Aluminum
2010 - 2020
50 Years of Uninterrupted
Aluminum Growth
12% 11.3%
10.0% 394
10% Pounds
8.8%
7.8%
8% 334
6.9%
6.1% Pounds
6% 77 5.1%
4.5%
Pounds
3.9%
4%
2.0% 2.1%
2%
Historical Forecast
0%
Calendar Year 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010F 2015F 2020F
Aluminum Share as Percentage of Curb Weight
Sapa Extrusions
9. Automotive applications are abundant
for Aluminum Extruders
A recent study by Ducker Worldwide indicates the average car or light truck produced in North
America in 2012 will contain 343 pounds of aluminum, 9% of average curb weight. 27 pounds
will be aluminum extrusion. As auto makers continue to improve fuel efficiency, Ducker expects
overall aluminum content to increase to 550 pounds, and extrusion content to grow to 48
pounds, by 2025. But extrusion plays a big role in transportation beyond autos (more)
Typical car/light truck
extrusion applications
Turbo charger Rotor
Bumper beam & Crush bos
Steering Column Bracket
Engine/Frame Isolators Links:
Ford GT
‘12 Mercedes
Sapa Extrusions Twisted Power
Illustration: Sapa Profiles www.aluminumintransportation.org
10. The aluminum industry must continue to find ways to
promote the usage of aluminum otherwise we will
continue to be hostage to the business cycle
35%
25%
15%
5%
-5% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-15%
-25%
-35%
Which path will WE choose?
Estimated 2010 Demand by End Estimated 2020 Demand by End
Use Use
Total = 2.98 Billion Lbs Total = 4.83 Billion Lbs
B&C Ind Ind
1267 B&C 1586
986 1691
42% 33% 36%
39%
Trans Trans
731 1106
2020 Estimate based on:
Sapa Extrusions 25% 25 lb per Car increase in Auto 25%
Average Housing build units – Return to 2003 % of alum windows
50% of Solar projection with middle range alum %