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Investment Management Industry in Asia Pacific Region
                                                        1
Contents




           Introduction


           Market Overview


           Forces shaping the industry


           Demographic Trends



           Regulatory Environment



           Market Polarization


                                         2
Contents




           M&A Activity & Key Challenges



           M&A Outlook



           Wealth Management Market Sizing



           Key Trends


           Overall Industry Outlook




                                             3
Introduction




               Following the dramatic developments in global financial markets since late 2007, the
               investment management industry is entering a potentially turbulent period. The tightening of
               credit markets has created pressure to deleveraging investments and inflation is threatening
               to become a more prominent feature of the world economy

               As investment returns fall in numerous mature markets, these developments may in turn
               lead to greater attention upon Asia Pacific where the longer term outlook is still bright

               For the purposes of this report, the investment management industry refers to entities that
               are actively engaged in the management of pooled assets. This includes traditional mutual
               fund managers and life insurance companies, along with managers using alternative
               investment strategies through vehicles such as hedge funds

               The extent of this report extends across the entire Asia Pacific region, including Australasia,
               South Asia and North East Asia with a particular focus on the most developed economies
               such as Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea, along with the two most
               significant developing markets in the region – India and China




                                                                                                                 4
Market Overview                                                                                                            Asian Assets by Investment Type

      An overview of the largest Asia Pacific investment management
      markets show Japan and Hong Kong rising in terms of the numbers                                                                10%
      of the numbers of funds and fund managers with Japan and
                                                                                                                                                                          Equities
      Australia having the highest quantum of assets under management                                                     19%
                                                                                                                                                                          Money Market

      Australia and Japan are the only markets with significant volumes of                                                                                                Bonds
                                                                                                                                                   62%
      assets are managed by pension funds. Life insurance companies in                                                      9%                                            Others

      Japan have more assets under management than their counterparts
      in other countries combined. Equities continue to dominate as the
      preferred medium for investment

                                          Number of Companies, 2007                                               Assets Under Management (USD bn), 2006*
                         Fund Managers           Life Insurance          Hedge Funds           Fund Managers            Life Insurance          Hedge Funds              Pensions

      Australia                 175                     34                      66                    763                     236                     31                     900

        China                    58                     46                     n/a                    477                     284                    n/a                      92

     Hong Kong                  280                     44                     118                    791                       23                    20                      62

        India                    33                     17                      14                    122                     150                     3                       59

        Japan                   134                     39                     270                    679                   1,800                     22                     809


       Korea                     50                     22                     n/a                    286                     280                    n/a                      66

     Singapore                  109                     12                     190                    581                       66                   n/a                      94

       Taiwan                    39                     30                     n/a                    111                       15                   n/a                      4


                                                                                                                     *To allow more direct and consistent country comparison, 2006 AUM numbers
Sources: Matrix Services Limited., APRA, InvestAustralia/Axiss Australia, Indian Ministry of Finance, Association of
Mutual Funds of India, irasia, Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, Office of the Commissioner of Insurance,                                                                5
Taiwan Central Bank, SITCAT, Financial Supervisory Service (Korea), Monetary Authority of Singapore, Japan
Forces shaping the investment management industry in Asia Pacific


With levels of middle class wealth rising, the    -   Growing wealth and prosperity among the middle class
limited existing penetration of structured or
managed products in many markets points to
opportunities for continued growth                -   Regulatory reforms opening up previously closed
                                                      markets
Another factor affecting the Asia Pacific
region is the increased influence due to global   -   Market polarization within large, branded fund
investment trends.                                    managers and niche institutional investment managers
                                                      like hedge funds
Varying regulations pertaining to this industry
pose the biggest hurdle while entering Asia       -   Difficulty in attracting and retaining key staff
Pacific markets. These challenges range from
staff retention to issues related to
communication and                                 -   Asia Pacific region‟s cultural and dialects diversity that
technology, distribution, etc.                        has implications for market entry and distribution
                                                      strategies
Asia Pacific cultural and language diversity
has very real and specific implications.
Regional fragmentation is an unavoidable
reality within this region




                                                                                                                   6
Demographic Trends: A market of Vast Potential
            The region accounts for more than 60 percent of the world‟s 6.5 billion population, but remained
            underdeveloped in terms of investment management services penetration

            Many regions worldwide are responding to the challenges of an ageing or greying population and Asia Pacific
            is no exception. Japan and Korea are expected to witness a fall in their population between 2005 and 2015 1

            In case of China, the falling birth rate has been altered with the „one child policy‟, while in other countries it is a
            product of increased affluence and urbanization. By contrast, two-thirds of India‟s population is under the age
            of 35, pronouncing it as one of the youngest countries of the world

            Exhibit I entails the growth in percentage of people over 65 years in six Asian countries. Exhibit clearly
            illustrates the demographic position confronting some of the large economies. In most countries, the
            percentage of people aged over 65 will make up vital proportion of the total population by 2025

            The significance of this trend, in reference to the development of the investment management industry within
            Asia Pacific region is that the deteriorating demographic position around the region is helping the growth of
            governmental programs of pension reform and market liberalization. This should continue to create new pool
            of funds for the industry to manage
                               35                                 Exhibit I: Proportion & Population aged 65+ in %
                               30

                               25

                               20
                                                                                                                                   1975

                               15                                                                                                  2000
                                                                                                                                   2025
                               10

                                5

                                0
                                         China        Hong Kong         India        Japan        Korea       Singapore   Taiwan
1 www.global-dem.com
Source: UN Population Department, US Bureau of Census                                                                                     7
Regulatory Environment: A kick-start for the
industry


Changing regulations along with new market
structures are being put in place to stimulate more
orderly development in capital markets
                                                                                              Exhibit 2: Relative Size of Pension Assets (USD billion), 2006

Pension Reforms
                                                                                  Australia                                                                        900

Reforms to pension systems have been occurring
                                                                                     Japan                                                                 809
throughout the region, driven by demographic and
economic trends. Around the region, savings                                      Singapore                  94
schemes are being implemented to shift pension
provision from state to individual. Many of these                                    China                  92
emerging savings are mandatory, with defined
contribution structures such as Central Provident                                    Korea             66
Fund in Singapore, the Mandatory Provident Fund
Schemes in Hong Kong and the New Pension                                        Hong Kong              62
System for government employees in India
                                                                                      India            59
The development of a strong domestic fund
management industry has been supported by many                                      Taiwan        4

governments in the region as they seek to establish
                                                                                     Other        15
orderly, liquid domestic capital market
                                                                                              0        100       200   300   400   500   600   700   800         900     1000
Exhibit 2 and 3 cites a summary of the key
characteristics of numerous pension schemes
operating in Asia Pacific along with the total assets
under management for each scheme

Source: Matrix Services Ltd., Allianz Dresdner Economic Research and Individual Country Regulators
                                                                                                                                                                       8
Regulatory Developments: A kick-start for the industry continues…

              The oldest and most successful mandatory savings programs in the region is Australia‟s Superannuation
              Scheme, established in 1992 that necessitate employers to contribute to the employee‟s designated
              superannuation fund at least ever three months. Today Australian workers have over AUD 1 trillion (USD 900
              billion) in superannuation assets.2 Consequently, they now have more money invested in managed funds per
              capita than any other economy globally

              The issue in Asia Pacific region, however, is not always of design but rather the level or extent of funding. For
              illustration:

                     Private             Public Social   Mandatory           Voluntary           Scheme Name              Individual           Assets Under
                    Pensions               Security                                                                         Choice             Management
                    Australia                  Yes          Yes                  Yes            Superannuation                Yes               USD 900 bn

                      China                    Yes                               Yes            NSSF/Enterprise                                  USD 92 bn
                                                                                                   Annuity
                   Hong Kong                Limited         Yes                                    Mandatory                  Yes                USD 62 bn
                                                                                                  Pension Fund
                       India                Limited         Yes                  Yes              New Pension                 Yes                USD 59 bn
                                                                                                    Scheme
                      Japan                    Yes                               Yes             New Corporate                Yes               USD 809 bn
                                                                                                 Pension System
                      Korea                    Yes                               Yes             New Corporate                Yes                USD 66 bn
                                                                                                 Pension System


                    Singapore                               Yes                                      Central                  Yes                USD 94 bn
                                                                                                 Provident Fund
                     Taiwan                    Yes        Planned                Yes               New Labour                                     USD 4 bn
                                                                                                  Pension Fund

2 Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA)           Source: Matrix Services Ltd., Allianz Dresdner Economic Research and Individual Country Regulators   9
Regulatory Developments: A kick-start for the industry continues…
    The Chinese pension system is well                       The Japanese system has undergone a
    designed having three distinct pillars or                series of reforms. Automatic changes to
    elements that are in line with World Bank‟s              benefits were introduced for greater
    recommendations. The first public pillar                 flexibility and new corporate pension plans
    entails to a state-sponsored pay-as-you-go               came into being. The current system
    scheme and funded individual accounts. The               include the flat rate National Pension
    second pillar is a voluntary occupational                System and employment related pensions
    pension in the form of enterprise annuities,             for public and private employees.
    whereas the third pillar is based on voluntary
    use of private savings                                   Exhibit 4 offers a view on current pension
                                                             scheme of seven key markets within the
                                                             region along with the estimates of AUM
    Hong Kong‟s mandatory defined contribution               that are likely to grow by 2015
    scheme was introduced in 2000.                                                  AUM 2006        Forecast AUM in          CAGR
    Additionally, there are legacy voluntary                                         (USD bn)         2015 (USD bn)
    occupational schemes and a small social
                                                     China                                   92                    640       24.1%
    safety net for elderly as well
                                                     Hong Kong                               62                    140        9.5%
    India‟s pension system is fragmented with
                                                     India                                   59                    230       16.3%
    very limited or no social security net for the
    elderly, though there is a well defined
                                                     Japan                                  809                    890        1.1%
    benefits pension system for civil servants.
    Almost 90 percent of India‟s workforce is not
                                                     Korea                                   66                    310       18.8%
    eligible for any schemes
                                                     Singapore                               94                    150        5.3%

    South Korea enacted legislation to unify its
                                                     Taiwan                                    4                        56   34.1%
    corporate pension system in 2005, having 2
    basic distinctive plans, funded and unfunded     Exhibit 4: Forecasted growth in Assets Under Management (AUM)
                                                     Source: Matrix Services Ltd., Allianz Dresdner Economic Research
                                                                                                                             10
Market Liberalization
                                                           The ongoing competition of Hong Kong
Another regulatory development has been the
                                                           and Singapore as regional financial hubs
opening up of financial markets of foreign capital and
                                                           in fund management, hedge funds, and
institutions; and has been a significant positive
                                                           private wealth management is the most
development for economies and for Asia Pacific
                                                           relevant example of this practice
investment management industry, in particular, by:

creating new opportunities for both Asian and
international companies

facilitating exchange of ideas, know-how and
knowledge across the region

placing competitive pressures to improve
performance and effectiveness

promoting the need for better transparency and
corporate governance

creating new capital (international) pools

creating more choice and greater diversifying
opportunities for consumer

Another highly significant trend that is less evident is
the drive to open up markets to foreign participation
through competitive liberalization, where jurisdictions
compete for foreign investment with tax and
regulatory incentives, particularly in East and
Southeast Asia
                                                                                                      11
Market Polarization: Room For Growth


              Though the investment management industry in the region have seen less M&A activity than
              elsewhere, the industry is moving through polarization process, by moving towards two
              distinct and opposite approaches.

              First category is the „bulge bracket‟ players who gain their competitive advantage through
              economies or scale. While they may seek to develop new products and diversity into new
              investment strategies, prominent aim remains growth of their assets under management.
              Here, size plays quite a pivotal role

              By contrast, there are smaller boutique managers who are more focused around alpha
              returns. While the concern would still be the same to improve on assets under management,
              they also charge higher fees and too often a split in profits or performance fee for specialist
              investment advice. Such companies trade on the name and expertise of specific people

              Polarization process has numerous implications for investment management industry and
              related segments that include:

              - the introduction of new business models such as the funds supermarket concept in Asia
                Pacific

              - pressures on mid market players to adapt

              - support functions like administration and custody have had to review their own strategies

              - bulge bracket players engaging the services of specialist managers as they adopt a fund
                of funds approach



                                                                                                                12
Hedge funds
The region is already witnessing growth in asset classes such as private equity, infrastructure, real estate and other
structured products. However, it is in the hedge fund segment where the industry has seen exponential growth

The number of hedge funds in Asia Pacific region has increased substantially in recent times. Per one estimate, in
2007 there were 900 dedicated Asia Pacific hedge funds with USD 200 billion of assets under management,
depicting an annual growth rate of 25 percent. These numbers further rose to close to 1,000 in 2008

These numbers do suggest that this region now constitutes for slightly more than 10 per cent of total assets under
management in the global hedge fund industry

Presently, the Asian funds market is characterized by the following:               Exhibit 5: Hedge fund strategies in Asia Pacific

- the market is now dominated by institutional investors and the global
  allocators are becoming increasingly important.
                                                                                                   9%
                                                                                          5%
- the individual hedge funds, on their own, are getting bigger and have            5%                                               Long Short
  large asset bases. Per an estimate by GFIA, more than 60 per cent of        5%                                                    Multi
  Asian hedge funds have more than USD 50 million of assets under            6%                                               55%
                                                                                                                                    Macro
  management that has been from 40 per cent in 2003                                                                                 Fixed Income
                                                                                    15%
                                                                                                                                    Relative Value
- more and more global funds are establishing a physical presence in Asia
                                                                                                                                    CTA
  due to the ever increasing need to be on the ground to identify
                                                                                                                                    Others
  opportunities. In particular, Hong Kong and Singapore offer a well
  developed regulatory environment, advantageous tax arrangements, and
  relatively low barriers to entry                                                             Source: Eurekahedge and GFIA


- However, there remains a strong presence of funds focusing on this
  region from locations outside (specifically in the UK and the USA), as
  exhibit 5 shows
- Long-short equity investments continue to dominate the region, with a majority of Asian hedge funds adopting
  it as a strategy. One fund manager believes that for most markets, including China, it may be too early to talk
  about the environment for alternative investments                                                                                 13
Mergers and Acquisitions Activity in Asia Pacific
 Financial Services

Introduction to Asian Financial Services    Cross-border transactions gather           Looking Ahead
M&A                                         momentum
                                                                                       Despite renewed concerns over the
Asian financial services M&A declined in    Institutions across Asia see M&A as        gloomy global economic
2010, but held up well compared to          crucial tool in wake of exposure to        environment, M&A activity in the
other regions. Deal values for the first    higher growth with cross-border deals      region is believed to be accelerated
two quarters of 2011 have risen year-       expected to accelerate. More mature        through 2011 and into 2012, driven
on-year basis. Per one survey               markets such as                            by a supportive long-term macro
conducted by one of the players, in the     Australia, Singapore, Japan and            environment with a range of strategic
medium to longer term, growth in Asian      Korea are being joined by American         factors. Some of the specific potential
financial services will continue to be      and European groups; and coupled           areas for deal activity include – Indian
driven by a range of supporting             with the ever increasing prospect of       asset management and non-bank
economic and demographic factors that       China coming in, this is supportive of     finance; trust, life insurance and
include the rapid emergence of middle-      increased cross-border activity across     asset management in Greater China;
income consumers                            the entire financial services spectrum     Indonesian banking and
                                                                                       insurance, Malaysian
                                                                                       insurance, Australian asset
Strong strategic rationales drive           Obstacles and enablers to deal             management, and Vietnamese
domestic M&A                                making                                     banking

Domestic M&A remains the prominent          Capital restrictions are emerging as
driver of Asian financial services          the leading obstacle to financial
transactions, and is being stimulated by    services M&A in the region, with
a range of strategic factors that are not   Basel III being the source of concern
limited to domestic                         along with tighter capital regulation in
competition, increasing pressure on         many markets will have an effect on
operational and capital efficiency, and     the size and shape of M&A
ongoing divestments by strategic            transactions. Legislative intervention
investors from outside the region           is a potential threat. Difficulties with
                                            deal valuation are easing, but remain
                                                                                                                      14
                                            a crucial obstacle in some markets
Key Findings

               - Asian financial services deals declined in 2010, but the geographic spread of deals
                 increased

               - Asian transactions also help up more strongly than in some other regions

               - The Asian macro-economic environment continues to be highly encouraging. Despite
                 renewed economic concerns in Europe and North America, this is providing support for
                 business and investor confidence

               - Asian financial services markets are expected to expand exponentially in the medium to
                 long term, supported by demand from the region‟s growing mass affluent
                 consumers, trade flows and investments

               - Most firms in the region report strong revenue growth and bullish projections for the year
                 ahead



               From a support perspective the summary of accompanying figures is as follows:

               Exhibit 1: Summary of 2010 Asian financial services M&A transactions by deal value (US$m)
               Exhibit 2: Expected level of business growth, next 12 months
               Exhibit 3: Likelihood of considering or undertaking material M&A during the next 12 months
               Exhibit 4: Sentiment during the next 12 months, 2008-2011
               Exhibit 5: Primary motives for considering M&A during the next 12 months
               Exhibit 6: Primary drivers of decreasing revenues during the last 12 months
               Exhibit 7: Areas likely to attract firms utilizing M&A to expand into new lines of business
               Exhibit 8: Most attractive areas for geographic expansion via M&A
               Exhibit 9: Likelihood of making a divestment during the next 12 months
               Exhibit 10: Primary motives for possible divestment during the next 12 months
                                                                                                              15
Exhibit 1: Summary of 2010 Asian financial services M&A transactions, by deal value (US$m)

 Target              No. of Deals            Banking   Securities &   Mutual Funds            Insurance   Others   Total (US$m)
 Country                                               Cap Markets     & Asset Mgt
 China                          78            10,823         1,960           2,666                 672      613          16,733
 Australia                     104              258             46           1,654               8,300      185          10,442
 Japan                         104             1,239           491               67              5,363     1,047          8,207
 South Korea                    29             4,479            61               28              1,520      426           6,514
 Hong Kong                      39             1,410           207             327               3,143      366           5,453
 India                          88              829            254             553                  19      399           2,054
 Thailand                       17             1,122              -               9                   -     194           1,326
 Malaysia                       18                 -              -               0                911        1             912
 Indonesia                      51              704             17                4                 44       30             799
 Taiwan                         15               98            429                6                183         -            716
 Singapore                      16                 -             4             228                 313        2             547
 Pakistan                         8             279               -               -                   -        -            279
 Philippines                      8             181               -               -                   -        -            181
 Kazakhstan                       5             131               -               -                   -        -            131
 Bangladesh                       3              55               -               -                 17       32             104
 New Zealand                    17                 -              -              31                  2       48              81
 Vietnam                        23               11             45                3                 11         -             69
 Uzbekistan                       3              17               -               -                   -        -             17
 Sri Lanka                      13                2              3                2                  2         -              9
 Azerbaijan                       2               2               -               -                   -        -              2
 Total                         641            21,640         3,516           5,578              20,498     3,341         54,574
                                                                                                                                  16
Source: Thomson Reuters, Industry analysis
Exhibit 2: Expected level of business growth, next 12 months (%)



                                                                                     27
High growth: Greater than 10%
                                                                          37

                                                                                                     34
       Medium growth: 5-10%
                                                                           39

                                                                                          29
             Low growth: 0-5%
                                                     19

                                                          10
 Negative growth: Less than 0%
                                        5
                                                                                                                     Source: Industry Analysis, 2011
                                    0       5        10         15         20   25    30            35    40   45


                         International business                       Domestic business




Exhibit 3: Likelihood of considering or undertaking material M&A during the next 12 months (%)



        Under consideration                                                31


                  Most likely                                        27


           Have not decided                                22


              Highly unlikely                   13


No, M&A has been ruled out              7


       Other (please specify)       1
                                                                                                                     Source: Industry Analysis, 2011

                                0           5             10              15    20             25         30    35
                                                                                                                                                       17
Exhibit 4: Sentiment regarding material M&A during the next 12 months, 2008-2011


                          22
 2008                           40
            0
                               38

            0
 2009                                          58
            0                                                                      Don't Know
                                    42
                                                                                   Negative
                    13
 2010           8                                                                  Neutral
                                              25
                                              54                                   Positive
            1
 2011                    20
                                         21
                                               58

                                                                                                      Source: Industry Analysis, 2011
        0                10     20                 30   40   50   60      70




            Key Findings
                                                                               - Firms are particularly keen to offer a full service
        - Growing competitive pressures acting as a spur to                      spectrum to their corporate and high-net –worth
          domestic consolidation in many Asian financial                         clients
          services markets
                                                                               - Pressure to consolidate is particularly strong for
        - M&A is also seen as an effective way to accelerate                     small and medium sized firms facing capital and
          customer acquisition, even in fast growing markets                     profitability pressures

        - Cost synergies mean that same-sector mergers                         - Market specific factors remain highly influential in
          remain the easiest to sell to shareholders and                         terms of regulatory attitudes and the role of other
          regulators                                                             government bodies

        - Large Asian financial groups are increasingly                        - Deal activity is being supported by non-core
          targeting a financial conglomerate structure                           disposals and the increasing interest of non-
                                                                                 financial groups in financial services ownership 18
Exhibit 5: Primary motives for considering M&A during the next 12 months (%)



    Increase market share and business growth                                                                         55



     Enhance products or customer experience                                                36



      Focus on geographic expansion/footprint                                               35



                Expand into new business lines                               28



       Respond to board/shareholder directive            10


                                                    0         10        20             30         40             50             60        Source: Industry Analysis, 2011



Exhibit 6: Primary drivers of decreasing revenues during the last 12 months (%)



 Competition or falling margins                                                                                            35

    Lower levels of fee income                                                                             30

              Customer Churn                                                                          28

           Prior year disposals                         11

     Proprietary trading losses                 7

              FX-related losses       2

         Other (please specify)       2


                                  0        5            10         15             20             25             30              35   40   Source: Industry Analysis, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                            19
Exhibit 7: Areas likely to attract firms using M&A to expand into new business lines (%)



    Investment banking                                                         50

Investment management                                                     46

        Capital markets                                        36

         Retail banking                                   32

     Corporate banking                                    32

         Life insurance                                31

        Private banking                              30

           Reinsurance                     20

         Private equity               18

  Outsourcing provision               18

     Non-life insurance              17

                 Other 1
                                                                                                Source: Industry Analysis, 2011
                          0   10                20        30        40              50     60




                                                                                                                                  20
Exhibit 8: Most attractive areas for geographic expansion via M&A (%)

                     China                                                                                                    37
                Singapore                                                                       23
               Hong Kong                                                                   21
                 Malaysia                                                             19
                  Thailand                                                       17
                     Japan                                                       17
                     India                                                  16
                 Australia                                             14
                   Taiwan                                         13
                Indonesia                                   11
              South Korea                              10
                  Vietnam                              10
               Phillippines                        9
        Other Asia-Pacific            3
 Africa or the Middle East 1
            North America 1
            Latin America 1
                   Europe0
                                                                                                                                                             Source: Industry Analysis, 2011
                                  0            5            10              15             20         25        30          35           40


Exhibit 9: Likelihood of making a divestment during the next 12 months                                                       Exhibit 10: Primary motive of possible divestments during
(%)                                                                                                                          the next 12 months (%)


  Under consideration                                        25
                                                                                                                                   Focus on core business                                52
            Most likely                                22
                                                                                                                                          Free up capital                      31

     Have not decided                                  22                                                               Unlock higher shareholders' value                 25

                                                                                                                     Dispose of underperforming business              23
        Highly unlikely                            20
                                                                                                                                              Compliance             18
No, has been ruled out                    11
                                                                                                                             Divest to a strategic partner           18

 Other (please specify)       1                                                                                                        Respond to board          6

                                                                                                                                                             0       10             20        30   40   50        60
                          0               5        10                  15             20         25        30
                                                                                                                                                                                                             21
M&A Activity: Key Deterrents

The idea here is to understand some of    Public Sector Intervention                Uncertainty
the factors that can act as enablers in
getting transactions a success after      Public sector intervention – direct or    The more pervasive impact is to
exploring some of the motives driving     indirect – with an ever increasing        create an atmosphere of uncertainty.
financial services M&A activity in Asia   involvement of governments and the        This can take place through a range
Pacific region                            regulators is seen as representing a      of factors such as issuance of
                                          crucial deterrent to financial services   licenses, the speed of regulatory
Capital Restrictions                      M&A in the region                         approvals, inconsistent
                                                                                    supervision, or perceptions of local
More than two years after financial       It occurs when specific deals are         bias or political risk
markets began to rebound, capital         blocked that may reflect competition
restrictions are identified as the        concerns
                                                                                    Valuation Problems, Pricing Gaps
largest single obstacle to M&A in the
                                          Regulators, too, have a direct impact     and Poor Information Management
industry, which was followed by a
lack of attractive targets                on this activity by imposing limits on
                                          foreign ownership of financial            There is an enormous concern about
(32%), government or regulatory
                                          services companies due to which the       bidder competition and price
intervention (30%), and valuation
                                          local group gets protected from           expectation gaps which were
problems (27%)
                                          predatory takeovers; but as an            identified as 22% each as per one
Basel III Requirements                    enabler, it can also increase the         study
                                          medium-term logic for M&A by
This has been taken as a particular       restricting the inflow of new entrants    Lack of attractive targets
source of concern on uncertainty and      and expertise
is expected to have a widening and                                                  Per one study, 32% rank this problem
direct impact on bidder behavior, by                                                as the second greatest deterrent. A
increasing demand for a smaller           Post-Deal Challenges                      lack of domestic opportunity scores
deals at the expense of larger ones.                                                high too and can be considered as
Per one survey, this will stimulate       Post deal barriers are of high            major source of obstacle
greater focus on targets‟ liquidity       concern, particularly in terms of
profiles (35%) and increasing interest    human capital. Cultural and people
in the quality of targets‟ risk           challenges can be hard to manage in
management controls (28%)                 any industry completely                                                 22
Exhibit 11: Current Principal Obstacles in Asian M&A (%)                                                                  Exhibit 12: Expected Effects of Basel III on M&A in Asia (%)


            Price Expectation Gaps                                            22                                              Encourage greater focus on capital efficiency of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         51
                Capital restrictions                                                                    34                                    transactions
          Lack of attractive targets                                                               32
           Regulatory intervention                                                            30                                            Increase demand for smaller deals                                  37
 Valuation difficulty or uncertainty                                                     27
    Lack of domestic opportunities                                                  25                                         Greater emphasis on targets' liquidity profiles                             35
  Poor external finance availability                                          22
             Excessive competition                                            22                                                     Stimulate divestments to release capital                             33
  Restrictions on equity ownership                                       20
           Poor target information                                  18                                                           Increase focus on targets' risk management
                                                                                                                                                                                                     28
                                                                                                                                                 framework
  Weak shareholder value creation                                  17
                  Reputational risk                  11                                                                               Lead to longer due diligence processes                  22
                       EPS dilution                 10
    Distraction from core activities                10
                                                                                                                                                        Other (please specify) 2
             Other (please specify) 1

                                       0        5        10        15         20         25        30         35         40                                                      0      10      20        30        40    50        60



       Exhibit 13: Management challenges during and after M&A (%)

                     Culture/People issues                                                                                            51

             Technology integration issues                                                                               42

Regulatory approval and compliance issues                                                                           40

        Operational and/or process issues                                                                          39

                   Synergy creation issues                                                               35

                Customer retention issues                                               25

                Brand management issues                                            22

                   Business strategy issues                                    21

                     Other (please specify) 1


                                              0               10                   20               30                   40            50             60
                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Industry Analysis, 2011               23
Exhibit 14: If the primary motive for acquisition is to expand into new
business lines, which of the following areas might attract the
organization (%)



Investment management                                                      71
          Private equity                                                   71
  Outsourcing provision                                          57
        Capital markets                             43
         Retail banking                   29
     Corporate banking                    29
    Investment banking                    29
        Private banking                   29
          Life insurance                  29
     Non-life insurance                   29
           Reinsurance                    29
  Other (please specify)0
                                                                                                    Source: Industry Analysis, 2011
                            0   10   20        30   40      50        60    70   80




M&A Activity in Asia Pacific Financial Services: Outlook

The overall outlook for Asian financial                  On a short term basis, there is an
services M&A is highly encouraging.                      uncertainty arising out from the
Key considerations for this include                      sovereign debt markets of Europe and
positive demographic trends, increasing                  the US, which could create additional
levels of domestic consumption and                       opportunities for mergers and
rapid expansion in the numbers of                        acquisitions in the region. A range of
mass-affluent consumers along with the                   strategic priorities point to increasing
increasing Eastward shift to the global                  appetite for deal making
wealth management industry
                                                                                                                                      24
Having a look at the strategic rationale   Furthermore, the growth potential of      A range of strategic priorities point
for further growth, there are certain      asset management in                       to increasing appetite for deal-
predictions made for India, Greater        China, coupled with increasing            making in the region going forward
China and Australia along with the         demand for cross-border
potential areas of opportunity for         investment, to stimulate crucial
financial services transactions            asset management M&A activity
                                           within Greater China during the next
                                           few years
The Indian financial services market       While private equity firms are still
offers strong potential for a trigger in   viewed with suspicion by regulators in
this activity. The asset management        a number of regional markets, the
and non-bank financial sectors offer       post-crisis phase of economic and
clear scope for further consolidation      financial recovery in Asia could offer
where both are open to foreign             attractive opportunities for private
bidders seeking exposure to Indian         equity investors
growth prospects

                                           Potential areas for financial services transactions
Despite the maturity of Australian
financial services, it is expected from    Life insurance in Mainland China with    Mid-sized Indonesian banks offering
the country to generate crucial M&A        investment opportunities for product     attractive investment opportunities to
activity, which entails both outbound      development skills of offer routes to    strengthen capital ratio
deals by the largest Australian            offshore markets
financial groups along with increasing
inbound investment in fast growing
asset management sector                    City commercial banks in Mainland        Asset management and brokerage in
                                           China with some opportunities for        Taiwan where recent transactions
                                           domestic mergers or foreign investors    could prompt further round of
                                                                                    consolidation

                                                                                                                      25
Wealth Management: Market Sizing
Global Overview

Global private financial wealth grew by 1.9 percent in        Globally, the amount of private wealth held in equities
2011 to reach a total of $122.8 trillion3 (Exhibit 15). The   declined by 3.4 percent, driven by both negative market
rise was considerably weaker than in either 2009 or           performance and asset reallocation. Wealth held in
2010, when global wealth grew by 9.6 percent and 6.8          bonds grew by 3.3 percent and cash and deposits rose
percent, respectively                                         by 5.2 percent

The evolution of private wealth varied by region in           In reference to household segments, the highest growth
2011, highlighting how the year‟s economic turbulence         rate was in the ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) segment
affected the developed and developing worlds. North           (households with more than $100 million in wealth) that
America, Europe and Japan lost the private                    witnessed an increase by 3.6 percent – compared with
wealth, while the rapidly developing markets in Asia          average growth of 1.7 percent across all other
Pacific and Latin America managed to sustain double-          segments
digit growth they have experienced in recent years

The Middle East and Africa continued to grow but at a
more moderate rate than in past years, owing
particularly to regional political instability
                                                              To support this view, the summary of accompanying
Overall, global wealth in private wealth is clearly being     figures is as follows:
driven by rapidly developing economies and not by the
already developed world (Exhibit 16). In BRIC                 Exhibit 15: The Growth of Global Wealth Slowed in 2011
countries, for instance, where nominal GDP growth was         Exhibit 16: “New World” Drove the Modest Growth in
15.5 percent on weighted-average basis, wealth                Global Wealth
increased by 18.5 percent in 20114

Equity markets suffered across most of the world in
2011, with positive showings in only a few countries.
Europe‟s equity markets were hurt the most, the
Greece‟s falling by a staggering 52 percent                                                                        26
Exhibit 15: The Growth of Global Wealth Slowed in 2011


                                                                                        Private financial wealth ($tri)




                                             41.5
              38.3             38.0
  35.6



 2009       2010           2011             2016 E                                                                         1.7           1.9
                                                                                                                                                        2.9
                                                                                                             1.4                                                                                2.9
                                                                                                                                                                1.4       1.7           1.9
                                                                                        36.7
                                                     32.2         33.6         33.5
                     North America                                                                          2009          2010          2011          2016 E
                                                                                                                                                               2009     2010        2011      2016 E
                                                                                                                          Eastern Europe
                                                     2009         2010         2011    2016 E
                                                                                                                                                                                Japan

                                                                  Western Europe




                                                                                         6.1
                                                            3.9          4.3     4.5



                                                        2009 2010 2011 2016 E
                                                                                                                                               40.1
                                      5.4
    2.9      3.2         3.5                                                                         19.0          21.4          23.7
                                                                   Middle East and Africa                                                                                                      151.2
                                                                                                                                                               112.9     120.6       122.8
  2009 2010 2011 2016 E                                                                             2009           2010      2011 2016 E
              Latin America
                                                                                                            Asia Pacific (ex Japan)                            2009     2010        2011      2016 E

                                                                                                                                                                                Global




                                                                                                                                                                       Source: BCG Analysis
  Note: Private financial wealth numbers for all years were converted to US$ at year-end 2011 exchange rates to exclude the
  effects of currency fluctuations. Percent changes and global totals are based on complete numbers. Calculations for 2009 and                                                                  27
  2010 are based on the same methodology
Exhibit 16: “New World” Drove the Modest Growth in Global Wealth
                                                                                                              Drivers

                                           Growth in 2011

                                                                                                             GDP growth               +3.2%
                                                                                                      f
                                                                         Newly created wealth1
                                                                                                             Savings rate             4.7%

                                “Old World”           -0.9%


                          • North America
                          • Western Europe                           f
                          • Japan
                                                                                                          Equity performance         -12.2%



                                                                            Existing assets2          f      Savings rate             -1.6%



                                                                                                          Equity performance          ~0%

   Global
   private         +
  financial
   wealth

                                                                                                              GDP growth              +11.3%
     +1.9%
                                                                         Newly created wealth1        f

                                                                                                              Savings rate             5.1%
                               “New World”           +10.0%


                          •   Asia Pacific (ex Japan)
                          •   Eastern Europe                         f
                          •   Latin America
                                                                                                          Equity performance         -11.7%
                          •   Middle East and Africa

                                                                            Existing assets2          f      Savings rate             -0.7%


                                                                                                                                      ~0%
Note: All growth rates are nominal, including GDP growth rates. Performance averages are unweighted       Equity performance
and reflect domestic market development
3 New private financial wealth, generated primarily through income                                                                             28
4 Growth in asset value                                                                                                 Source: BCG Analysis
Private wealth is expected to post a compound annual growth rate of 4 to 5 percent over the next five years
to reach more than $150 trillion by the end of 2016. As per one estimation, equities will be the fastest
growing asset class, with a projected CAGR of 4.9 percent. By end 2016, the share of global wealth held in
equities should be 34.0 percent of the total, still below the precise share of 38.5 percent

Additionally, over the next 5 years, the amount of wealth held by all clients with more than $1 million in
wealth should show a CAGR of around 6 percent, driven prominently by an increasing number of
households in this segment in Asia Pacific. Average wealth of such households is expected to increase just
marginally; however, this segment will continue to grow the fastest over the next five years, by a projected
CAGR of 8 percent


Regional Variation           The growth of private wealth varied widely across all regions in 2011


North America5                                             Western Europe6
Private wealth in North America declined by a              Though the region didn‟t suffer as much as
0.9 percent in 2011 to $38 trillion. Overall, the          North America, the euro debt crisis took its
amount of wealth in equities and bonds                     toll, and private wealth declined by 0.4
decreased by 3.6 percent and 2.1                           percent to $33.5 trillion, due to which the
percent, respectively. The share held in cash              region remained as the second wealthiest
and deposits grew by 3.5 percent                           worldwide

A near default on U.S. government                          Equities lost a 2.1 percent point
debt, combined with the euro debt                          share, constituting 28.5 percent of the
crisis, made 2011 an unpleasant year for the               region‟s financial wealth at the end of 2011
US economy. All this, along with the
downgrade of the nation‟s credit rating has                Extreme levels of both government and
led to significant investor uncertainty. North             private debt, including the threat of
American wealth is projected to post a CAGR                bankruptcy faced by numerous European
of 1.8 percent over the next five years to                 Union countries, led to double-digit stock
reach $41.5 trillion by the end of 2016                    market declines in some of the region‟s
                                                           largest economies                                   29
Offshore wealth declined by 2.2 percent           CAGR of 11.1 percent, touching $40.1 trillion
thereby reducing the share of total private       by the end of 2016, at which time it will have
wealth to 7.6 percent. Per an estimate, it is     slightly overtaken Western and Eastern
projected to show a CAGR of 1.8 percent to        Europe (combined). These gains should be
reach $36.7 trillion by the end of                driven largely by sustained strong GDP
2016, primarily driven by moderate equity-        growth in China and India and overall
market recoveries in the largest economies        stronger stock market performance

Asia Pacific (ex Japan)7                          Japan
Private wealth in Asia Pacific (ex Japan)         Private wealth in Japan decreased by 2.0
increased by 10.7 percent in 2011 to $23.7        percent in 2011 to $17.8 trillion. The value of
trillion, enabling the region to widen its gap    wealth held in equities fell by 7.6
with Japan as the third wealthiest area           percent, while amounts held in bonds and
globally. The strongest growth was in the         cash along with deposits remained flat
higher wealth bands, with the share of total
wealth increased to 48 percent                    Drivers of the overall decline included the
                                                  lingering effects of March 2011 tsunami and
The amount of wealth in equities grew by 4.1      earthquake – and the subsequent Fukushima
percent, a weaker performance than the            nuclear plant – along with poor stock market
annual growth of 17.7 percent witnessed over      performance. Per one estimate, private
the previous five years. Wealth held in bonds     wealth is projected to post a CAGR of 0.8
rose sharply by 17.5 percent, and cash and        percent to reach $18.5 trillion by the end of
deposits increased by 13.4 percent                2016

Despite poor stock market performance in          Eastern Europe8
several large countries, notably Indian and
China, strong GDP growth driven primarily by      Russia, with GDP growth well above
high levels of government and private             that of most mature economies, was the
consumption led to new wealth generation.         primary driver of the 2011 increase in
Wealth in the region is expected to continue      Easter European wealth that rose by
growing at a double-digit rate with a projected   14.4 percent to $1.9 trillion
                                                                                                    30
Eastern European wealth is forecast to grow              largely as a consequence of continued GDP
way faster than Western European wealth –                expansion in oil-rich countries
at a CAGR of about 8.7 percent over the next
five years, reaching $2.9 trillion by the end of         Latin America10
2016, with the bulk ($2.0 trillion) held in
Russia                                                   The region‟s private wealth grew by 10.6
                                                         percent in 2011 to $3.5 trillion, driven
These gains will be driven primarily by the              primarily by strong GDP growth in Brazil and
region‟s status as the world‟s largest oil               Mexico. Also, the region‟s stock markets were
producer and its continuing GDP momentum
                                                         less affected by global economic uncertainty
                                                         than those in many other economies, with
Middle East and Africa9                                  regional wealth held in equities rising by 2.8
                                                         percent
This region‟s stock markets suffered from the
political instability due to the uprisings across        Wealth held in bonds soared by 16.6
the Arab world in 2011. Still, the region                percent, and cash and deposits rose by 9.2
managed to improved upon its private wealth              percent
growth by 4.7 percent to $4.5 trillion, primarily
driven by high savings rate and strong                   Private wealth in the region is project to post
double-digit GDP growth in oil-rich countries            a CAGR of 8.9 percent over the next five
                                                         years to touch $5.4 trillion by the end of 2016.
Though the amount of wealth held in equities             This will be in wake of the onshore offerings
decreased by 2.6 percent, the amount held in             that are becoming more sophisticated as
bonds rose by 13.3 percent and cash and                  international players enter the market
                                                    Notes:
deposits grew by 5.1 percent                        GDP data are from Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
                                                    This looks at three asset classes: equities, bonds, and cash and deposits
                                                    5. United States and Canada
Wealth in the UHNW household segment                6.
grew exponentially, posting 9.0 percent driven      Germany, France, UK, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Belgi
                                                    um, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Greece
by the government programs benefiting large         7. Taiwan, China, Australia, South Korea, Hong
family conglomerates. Private wealth in the         Kong, India, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, and
                                                    Pakistan
region is project to show a CAGR of 6.6             8. Russia, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia
percent to reach $6.1 trillion in 2016,             9. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, Turkey, South
                                                                                                                                                     31
                                                    Africa, Kuwait, Iran, Egypt, Algeria, Qatar, Oman, Morocco, Lebanon, Bahrain, Tunisia, Syria,
                                                    Yemen, and Jordan
                                                    10. Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Uruguay
Trends Shaping The Industry

The landscape in this industry will change      The economics of wealth managers will
fundamentally over the next ten years as        continue to be strained. Growth will be
competitive dynamics, regulatory                constrained due to tighter
oversight, client behavior, and technology      regulations, stricter compliance
continue to evolve. A broad set of trends is    requirements, and greater interest in
already in place                                nonfinancial investments

                                                Revenue margins will be compressed by
Emerging markets will fuel the growth of
                                                stronger competition through disruptive
global wealth. In India and China, private
                                                business models, increased product
wealth is projected to increase at a CAGR
                                                commoditization, limited trading
of 19 percent and 15 percent, respectively
                                                activity, and a slow recovery of demand
from the year end 2011 through 2016 –
                                                for complex products
significantly faster than the global forecast
of about 4 to 5 percent annually.
                                                Margins will also be affected by rising
China, alone will account for 35
                                                costs, new infrastructure
percent, while India will account for 10
                                                requirements, and the scarcity of top
percent in global wealth
                                                talent
This is likely to foster the development of
                                                More broadly, wealth managers should
onshore investment opportunities and
                                                continue to protect their revenue streams
new wealth management sectors
                                                by working on high value and higher
                                                margin solutions
Emerging markets are still very diverse in
terms of their nature, size and maturity
levels. Few, such as Brazil are already
                                                Clients will become more sophisticated
characterized by clear and transparent
                                                and more self-directed regarding plain
regulation, highly developed capital
                                                products and services. It is expected that
markets, and keen private banking clients
                                                from HNW and UHNW to increasingly use
                                                alternative channels to execute simple
                                                transactions                                 32
All client segments will become more            Products will become simpler and more
discerning, demanding tailored advice and       modular. More flexible, transparent, and
solutions based on a comprehensive view of      modular products will gain prominence as
their financial needs. Wealth managers must     investors seek simple solutions to
strengthen their capacity to provide highly     increasingly sophisticated problems
customized solutions, permitting a more cost-
efficient service model
                                                Multichannel capabilities and social-media
Pricing will become more transparent and        presence should be developed further.
closely linked to service models. In            Though online wealth managers and
response to regulatory changes and also         community banks will not be major
to changes in client behavior, wealth           competitors in the foreseeable future, the
managers must continue to makes                 trend toward online services, increased
prices, fees, and commissions more              channel integration, and greater use of
transparent. They also need to create a         social media will have an impact –
sharp distinction within high-and-low-cost      creating more transparency
offerings
                                                Advanced technology and infrastructure
Pricing, in general, will become a pivotal      become more essential. Wealth managers
level for improving and bolstering client       must enhance their IT capabilities in order
acquisition and retention                       to keep up with client expectations. In
                                                order to provide a consistent and
Risk management capabilities are critical.      seamless experience across multiple
Having tighter regulations and a higher         channels, they will need a fully integrated
profile in the mainstream media, players        technology platform that has modular
must reinvigorate risk management.              applications. To offer tailored
Stricter internal guidelines often lead to      products, they will have to have a more
time-consuming processes and higher             modular product architecture
costs. Overall, the right acts in reference
to risk management must be strongly             A break up of the value chain is
embedded – bringing value to the client         expected, leading to an increase in
while also protecting from operational and      outsourcing to third parties for IT and
reputational risk                               operations                                    33
Outlook


          The investment management industry in Asia Pacific has been through
          an extraordinary period of change and growth in recent years. There
          remain some significant short-term challenges to the industry, including
          management of performance in volatile markets, the on-going battle for
          talent and the fragmented nature of the Asian marketplace.

          However, the long-term prospects for the industry remain
          bright, particularly as investment managers continue to exploit the shift in
          economic activity towards the region

          The asset management industry continues to be highly attractive
          compared to other financial services sectors. However, in an era of
          elusive growth and deepened profitability, strategic decisions concerning
          where and how to compete have never been more crucial. Overall, the
          environment will be tougher, with few players enjoying the growth rates
          and profitability

          Wealth managers will still need to continue their cost-cutting and pricing
          initiatives, refocus on client discovery, master the ever-shifting regulatory
          environment, bolster risk management, and find ways to use alternative
          business models to their advantage. Only those wealth managers that
          take action, as opposed to wait-and-watch attitude, will be in a position to
          thrive regardless of which direction the markets ultimately take




                                                                                          34

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Investment Management Industry Outlook in Asia Pacific Region

  • 1. Investment Management Industry in Asia Pacific Region 1
  • 2. Contents Introduction Market Overview Forces shaping the industry Demographic Trends Regulatory Environment Market Polarization 2
  • 3. Contents M&A Activity & Key Challenges M&A Outlook Wealth Management Market Sizing Key Trends Overall Industry Outlook 3
  • 4. Introduction Following the dramatic developments in global financial markets since late 2007, the investment management industry is entering a potentially turbulent period. The tightening of credit markets has created pressure to deleveraging investments and inflation is threatening to become a more prominent feature of the world economy As investment returns fall in numerous mature markets, these developments may in turn lead to greater attention upon Asia Pacific where the longer term outlook is still bright For the purposes of this report, the investment management industry refers to entities that are actively engaged in the management of pooled assets. This includes traditional mutual fund managers and life insurance companies, along with managers using alternative investment strategies through vehicles such as hedge funds The extent of this report extends across the entire Asia Pacific region, including Australasia, South Asia and North East Asia with a particular focus on the most developed economies such as Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea, along with the two most significant developing markets in the region – India and China 4
  • 5. Market Overview Asian Assets by Investment Type An overview of the largest Asia Pacific investment management markets show Japan and Hong Kong rising in terms of the numbers 10% of the numbers of funds and fund managers with Japan and Equities Australia having the highest quantum of assets under management 19% Money Market Australia and Japan are the only markets with significant volumes of Bonds 62% assets are managed by pension funds. Life insurance companies in 9% Others Japan have more assets under management than their counterparts in other countries combined. Equities continue to dominate as the preferred medium for investment Number of Companies, 2007 Assets Under Management (USD bn), 2006* Fund Managers Life Insurance Hedge Funds Fund Managers Life Insurance Hedge Funds Pensions Australia 175 34 66 763 236 31 900 China 58 46 n/a 477 284 n/a 92 Hong Kong 280 44 118 791 23 20 62 India 33 17 14 122 150 3 59 Japan 134 39 270 679 1,800 22 809 Korea 50 22 n/a 286 280 n/a 66 Singapore 109 12 190 581 66 n/a 94 Taiwan 39 30 n/a 111 15 n/a 4 *To allow more direct and consistent country comparison, 2006 AUM numbers Sources: Matrix Services Limited., APRA, InvestAustralia/Axiss Australia, Indian Ministry of Finance, Association of Mutual Funds of India, irasia, Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, Office of the Commissioner of Insurance, 5 Taiwan Central Bank, SITCAT, Financial Supervisory Service (Korea), Monetary Authority of Singapore, Japan
  • 6. Forces shaping the investment management industry in Asia Pacific With levels of middle class wealth rising, the - Growing wealth and prosperity among the middle class limited existing penetration of structured or managed products in many markets points to opportunities for continued growth - Regulatory reforms opening up previously closed markets Another factor affecting the Asia Pacific region is the increased influence due to global - Market polarization within large, branded fund investment trends. managers and niche institutional investment managers like hedge funds Varying regulations pertaining to this industry pose the biggest hurdle while entering Asia - Difficulty in attracting and retaining key staff Pacific markets. These challenges range from staff retention to issues related to communication and - Asia Pacific region‟s cultural and dialects diversity that technology, distribution, etc. has implications for market entry and distribution strategies Asia Pacific cultural and language diversity has very real and specific implications. Regional fragmentation is an unavoidable reality within this region 6
  • 7. Demographic Trends: A market of Vast Potential The region accounts for more than 60 percent of the world‟s 6.5 billion population, but remained underdeveloped in terms of investment management services penetration Many regions worldwide are responding to the challenges of an ageing or greying population and Asia Pacific is no exception. Japan and Korea are expected to witness a fall in their population between 2005 and 2015 1 In case of China, the falling birth rate has been altered with the „one child policy‟, while in other countries it is a product of increased affluence and urbanization. By contrast, two-thirds of India‟s population is under the age of 35, pronouncing it as one of the youngest countries of the world Exhibit I entails the growth in percentage of people over 65 years in six Asian countries. Exhibit clearly illustrates the demographic position confronting some of the large economies. In most countries, the percentage of people aged over 65 will make up vital proportion of the total population by 2025 The significance of this trend, in reference to the development of the investment management industry within Asia Pacific region is that the deteriorating demographic position around the region is helping the growth of governmental programs of pension reform and market liberalization. This should continue to create new pool of funds for the industry to manage 35 Exhibit I: Proportion & Population aged 65+ in % 30 25 20 1975 15 2000 2025 10 5 0 China Hong Kong India Japan Korea Singapore Taiwan 1 www.global-dem.com Source: UN Population Department, US Bureau of Census 7
  • 8. Regulatory Environment: A kick-start for the industry Changing regulations along with new market structures are being put in place to stimulate more orderly development in capital markets Exhibit 2: Relative Size of Pension Assets (USD billion), 2006 Pension Reforms Australia 900 Reforms to pension systems have been occurring Japan 809 throughout the region, driven by demographic and economic trends. Around the region, savings Singapore 94 schemes are being implemented to shift pension provision from state to individual. Many of these China 92 emerging savings are mandatory, with defined contribution structures such as Central Provident Korea 66 Fund in Singapore, the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes in Hong Kong and the New Pension Hong Kong 62 System for government employees in India India 59 The development of a strong domestic fund management industry has been supported by many Taiwan 4 governments in the region as they seek to establish Other 15 orderly, liquid domestic capital market 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Exhibit 2 and 3 cites a summary of the key characteristics of numerous pension schemes operating in Asia Pacific along with the total assets under management for each scheme Source: Matrix Services Ltd., Allianz Dresdner Economic Research and Individual Country Regulators 8
  • 9. Regulatory Developments: A kick-start for the industry continues… The oldest and most successful mandatory savings programs in the region is Australia‟s Superannuation Scheme, established in 1992 that necessitate employers to contribute to the employee‟s designated superannuation fund at least ever three months. Today Australian workers have over AUD 1 trillion (USD 900 billion) in superannuation assets.2 Consequently, they now have more money invested in managed funds per capita than any other economy globally The issue in Asia Pacific region, however, is not always of design but rather the level or extent of funding. For illustration: Private Public Social Mandatory Voluntary Scheme Name Individual Assets Under Pensions Security Choice Management Australia Yes Yes Yes Superannuation Yes USD 900 bn China Yes Yes NSSF/Enterprise USD 92 bn Annuity Hong Kong Limited Yes Mandatory Yes USD 62 bn Pension Fund India Limited Yes Yes New Pension Yes USD 59 bn Scheme Japan Yes Yes New Corporate Yes USD 809 bn Pension System Korea Yes Yes New Corporate Yes USD 66 bn Pension System Singapore Yes Central Yes USD 94 bn Provident Fund Taiwan Yes Planned Yes New Labour USD 4 bn Pension Fund 2 Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) Source: Matrix Services Ltd., Allianz Dresdner Economic Research and Individual Country Regulators 9
  • 10. Regulatory Developments: A kick-start for the industry continues… The Chinese pension system is well The Japanese system has undergone a designed having three distinct pillars or series of reforms. Automatic changes to elements that are in line with World Bank‟s benefits were introduced for greater recommendations. The first public pillar flexibility and new corporate pension plans entails to a state-sponsored pay-as-you-go came into being. The current system scheme and funded individual accounts. The include the flat rate National Pension second pillar is a voluntary occupational System and employment related pensions pension in the form of enterprise annuities, for public and private employees. whereas the third pillar is based on voluntary use of private savings Exhibit 4 offers a view on current pension scheme of seven key markets within the region along with the estimates of AUM Hong Kong‟s mandatory defined contribution that are likely to grow by 2015 scheme was introduced in 2000. AUM 2006 Forecast AUM in CAGR Additionally, there are legacy voluntary (USD bn) 2015 (USD bn) occupational schemes and a small social China 92 640 24.1% safety net for elderly as well Hong Kong 62 140 9.5% India‟s pension system is fragmented with India 59 230 16.3% very limited or no social security net for the elderly, though there is a well defined Japan 809 890 1.1% benefits pension system for civil servants. Almost 90 percent of India‟s workforce is not Korea 66 310 18.8% eligible for any schemes Singapore 94 150 5.3% South Korea enacted legislation to unify its Taiwan 4 56 34.1% corporate pension system in 2005, having 2 basic distinctive plans, funded and unfunded Exhibit 4: Forecasted growth in Assets Under Management (AUM) Source: Matrix Services Ltd., Allianz Dresdner Economic Research 10
  • 11. Market Liberalization The ongoing competition of Hong Kong Another regulatory development has been the and Singapore as regional financial hubs opening up of financial markets of foreign capital and in fund management, hedge funds, and institutions; and has been a significant positive private wealth management is the most development for economies and for Asia Pacific relevant example of this practice investment management industry, in particular, by: creating new opportunities for both Asian and international companies facilitating exchange of ideas, know-how and knowledge across the region placing competitive pressures to improve performance and effectiveness promoting the need for better transparency and corporate governance creating new capital (international) pools creating more choice and greater diversifying opportunities for consumer Another highly significant trend that is less evident is the drive to open up markets to foreign participation through competitive liberalization, where jurisdictions compete for foreign investment with tax and regulatory incentives, particularly in East and Southeast Asia 11
  • 12. Market Polarization: Room For Growth Though the investment management industry in the region have seen less M&A activity than elsewhere, the industry is moving through polarization process, by moving towards two distinct and opposite approaches. First category is the „bulge bracket‟ players who gain their competitive advantage through economies or scale. While they may seek to develop new products and diversity into new investment strategies, prominent aim remains growth of their assets under management. Here, size plays quite a pivotal role By contrast, there are smaller boutique managers who are more focused around alpha returns. While the concern would still be the same to improve on assets under management, they also charge higher fees and too often a split in profits or performance fee for specialist investment advice. Such companies trade on the name and expertise of specific people Polarization process has numerous implications for investment management industry and related segments that include: - the introduction of new business models such as the funds supermarket concept in Asia Pacific - pressures on mid market players to adapt - support functions like administration and custody have had to review their own strategies - bulge bracket players engaging the services of specialist managers as they adopt a fund of funds approach 12
  • 13. Hedge funds The region is already witnessing growth in asset classes such as private equity, infrastructure, real estate and other structured products. However, it is in the hedge fund segment where the industry has seen exponential growth The number of hedge funds in Asia Pacific region has increased substantially in recent times. Per one estimate, in 2007 there were 900 dedicated Asia Pacific hedge funds with USD 200 billion of assets under management, depicting an annual growth rate of 25 percent. These numbers further rose to close to 1,000 in 2008 These numbers do suggest that this region now constitutes for slightly more than 10 per cent of total assets under management in the global hedge fund industry Presently, the Asian funds market is characterized by the following: Exhibit 5: Hedge fund strategies in Asia Pacific - the market is now dominated by institutional investors and the global allocators are becoming increasingly important. 9% 5% - the individual hedge funds, on their own, are getting bigger and have 5% Long Short large asset bases. Per an estimate by GFIA, more than 60 per cent of 5% Multi Asian hedge funds have more than USD 50 million of assets under 6% 55% Macro management that has been from 40 per cent in 2003 Fixed Income 15% Relative Value - more and more global funds are establishing a physical presence in Asia CTA due to the ever increasing need to be on the ground to identify Others opportunities. In particular, Hong Kong and Singapore offer a well developed regulatory environment, advantageous tax arrangements, and relatively low barriers to entry Source: Eurekahedge and GFIA - However, there remains a strong presence of funds focusing on this region from locations outside (specifically in the UK and the USA), as exhibit 5 shows - Long-short equity investments continue to dominate the region, with a majority of Asian hedge funds adopting it as a strategy. One fund manager believes that for most markets, including China, it may be too early to talk about the environment for alternative investments 13
  • 14. Mergers and Acquisitions Activity in Asia Pacific Financial Services Introduction to Asian Financial Services Cross-border transactions gather Looking Ahead M&A momentum Despite renewed concerns over the Asian financial services M&A declined in Institutions across Asia see M&A as gloomy global economic 2010, but held up well compared to crucial tool in wake of exposure to environment, M&A activity in the other regions. Deal values for the first higher growth with cross-border deals region is believed to be accelerated two quarters of 2011 have risen year- expected to accelerate. More mature through 2011 and into 2012, driven on-year basis. Per one survey markets such as by a supportive long-term macro conducted by one of the players, in the Australia, Singapore, Japan and environment with a range of strategic medium to longer term, growth in Asian Korea are being joined by American factors. Some of the specific potential financial services will continue to be and European groups; and coupled areas for deal activity include – Indian driven by a range of supporting with the ever increasing prospect of asset management and non-bank economic and demographic factors that China coming in, this is supportive of finance; trust, life insurance and include the rapid emergence of middle- increased cross-border activity across asset management in Greater China; income consumers the entire financial services spectrum Indonesian banking and insurance, Malaysian insurance, Australian asset Strong strategic rationales drive Obstacles and enablers to deal management, and Vietnamese domestic M&A making banking Domestic M&A remains the prominent Capital restrictions are emerging as driver of Asian financial services the leading obstacle to financial transactions, and is being stimulated by services M&A in the region, with a range of strategic factors that are not Basel III being the source of concern limited to domestic along with tighter capital regulation in competition, increasing pressure on many markets will have an effect on operational and capital efficiency, and the size and shape of M&A ongoing divestments by strategic transactions. Legislative intervention investors from outside the region is a potential threat. Difficulties with deal valuation are easing, but remain 14 a crucial obstacle in some markets
  • 15. Key Findings - Asian financial services deals declined in 2010, but the geographic spread of deals increased - Asian transactions also help up more strongly than in some other regions - The Asian macro-economic environment continues to be highly encouraging. Despite renewed economic concerns in Europe and North America, this is providing support for business and investor confidence - Asian financial services markets are expected to expand exponentially in the medium to long term, supported by demand from the region‟s growing mass affluent consumers, trade flows and investments - Most firms in the region report strong revenue growth and bullish projections for the year ahead From a support perspective the summary of accompanying figures is as follows: Exhibit 1: Summary of 2010 Asian financial services M&A transactions by deal value (US$m) Exhibit 2: Expected level of business growth, next 12 months Exhibit 3: Likelihood of considering or undertaking material M&A during the next 12 months Exhibit 4: Sentiment during the next 12 months, 2008-2011 Exhibit 5: Primary motives for considering M&A during the next 12 months Exhibit 6: Primary drivers of decreasing revenues during the last 12 months Exhibit 7: Areas likely to attract firms utilizing M&A to expand into new lines of business Exhibit 8: Most attractive areas for geographic expansion via M&A Exhibit 9: Likelihood of making a divestment during the next 12 months Exhibit 10: Primary motives for possible divestment during the next 12 months 15
  • 16. Exhibit 1: Summary of 2010 Asian financial services M&A transactions, by deal value (US$m) Target No. of Deals Banking Securities & Mutual Funds Insurance Others Total (US$m) Country Cap Markets & Asset Mgt China 78 10,823 1,960 2,666 672 613 16,733 Australia 104 258 46 1,654 8,300 185 10,442 Japan 104 1,239 491 67 5,363 1,047 8,207 South Korea 29 4,479 61 28 1,520 426 6,514 Hong Kong 39 1,410 207 327 3,143 366 5,453 India 88 829 254 553 19 399 2,054 Thailand 17 1,122 - 9 - 194 1,326 Malaysia 18 - - 0 911 1 912 Indonesia 51 704 17 4 44 30 799 Taiwan 15 98 429 6 183 - 716 Singapore 16 - 4 228 313 2 547 Pakistan 8 279 - - - - 279 Philippines 8 181 - - - - 181 Kazakhstan 5 131 - - - - 131 Bangladesh 3 55 - - 17 32 104 New Zealand 17 - - 31 2 48 81 Vietnam 23 11 45 3 11 - 69 Uzbekistan 3 17 - - - - 17 Sri Lanka 13 2 3 2 2 - 9 Azerbaijan 2 2 - - - - 2 Total 641 21,640 3,516 5,578 20,498 3,341 54,574 16 Source: Thomson Reuters, Industry analysis
  • 17. Exhibit 2: Expected level of business growth, next 12 months (%) 27 High growth: Greater than 10% 37 34 Medium growth: 5-10% 39 29 Low growth: 0-5% 19 10 Negative growth: Less than 0% 5 Source: Industry Analysis, 2011 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 International business Domestic business Exhibit 3: Likelihood of considering or undertaking material M&A during the next 12 months (%) Under consideration 31 Most likely 27 Have not decided 22 Highly unlikely 13 No, M&A has been ruled out 7 Other (please specify) 1 Source: Industry Analysis, 2011 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 17
  • 18. Exhibit 4: Sentiment regarding material M&A during the next 12 months, 2008-2011 22 2008 40 0 38 0 2009 58 0 Don't Know 42 Negative 13 2010 8 Neutral 25 54 Positive 1 2011 20 21 58 Source: Industry Analysis, 2011 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Key Findings - Firms are particularly keen to offer a full service - Growing competitive pressures acting as a spur to spectrum to their corporate and high-net –worth domestic consolidation in many Asian financial clients services markets - Pressure to consolidate is particularly strong for - M&A is also seen as an effective way to accelerate small and medium sized firms facing capital and customer acquisition, even in fast growing markets profitability pressures - Cost synergies mean that same-sector mergers - Market specific factors remain highly influential in remain the easiest to sell to shareholders and terms of regulatory attitudes and the role of other regulators government bodies - Large Asian financial groups are increasingly - Deal activity is being supported by non-core targeting a financial conglomerate structure disposals and the increasing interest of non- financial groups in financial services ownership 18
  • 19. Exhibit 5: Primary motives for considering M&A during the next 12 months (%) Increase market share and business growth 55 Enhance products or customer experience 36 Focus on geographic expansion/footprint 35 Expand into new business lines 28 Respond to board/shareholder directive 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Source: Industry Analysis, 2011 Exhibit 6: Primary drivers of decreasing revenues during the last 12 months (%) Competition or falling margins 35 Lower levels of fee income 30 Customer Churn 28 Prior year disposals 11 Proprietary trading losses 7 FX-related losses 2 Other (please specify) 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Source: Industry Analysis, 2011 19
  • 20. Exhibit 7: Areas likely to attract firms using M&A to expand into new business lines (%) Investment banking 50 Investment management 46 Capital markets 36 Retail banking 32 Corporate banking 32 Life insurance 31 Private banking 30 Reinsurance 20 Private equity 18 Outsourcing provision 18 Non-life insurance 17 Other 1 Source: Industry Analysis, 2011 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 20
  • 21. Exhibit 8: Most attractive areas for geographic expansion via M&A (%) China 37 Singapore 23 Hong Kong 21 Malaysia 19 Thailand 17 Japan 17 India 16 Australia 14 Taiwan 13 Indonesia 11 South Korea 10 Vietnam 10 Phillippines 9 Other Asia-Pacific 3 Africa or the Middle East 1 North America 1 Latin America 1 Europe0 Source: Industry Analysis, 2011 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Exhibit 9: Likelihood of making a divestment during the next 12 months Exhibit 10: Primary motive of possible divestments during (%) the next 12 months (%) Under consideration 25 Focus on core business 52 Most likely 22 Free up capital 31 Have not decided 22 Unlock higher shareholders' value 25 Dispose of underperforming business 23 Highly unlikely 20 Compliance 18 No, has been ruled out 11 Divest to a strategic partner 18 Other (please specify) 1 Respond to board 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 21
  • 22. M&A Activity: Key Deterrents The idea here is to understand some of Public Sector Intervention Uncertainty the factors that can act as enablers in getting transactions a success after Public sector intervention – direct or The more pervasive impact is to exploring some of the motives driving indirect – with an ever increasing create an atmosphere of uncertainty. financial services M&A activity in Asia involvement of governments and the This can take place through a range Pacific region regulators is seen as representing a of factors such as issuance of crucial deterrent to financial services licenses, the speed of regulatory Capital Restrictions M&A in the region approvals, inconsistent supervision, or perceptions of local More than two years after financial It occurs when specific deals are bias or political risk markets began to rebound, capital blocked that may reflect competition restrictions are identified as the concerns Valuation Problems, Pricing Gaps largest single obstacle to M&A in the Regulators, too, have a direct impact and Poor Information Management industry, which was followed by a lack of attractive targets on this activity by imposing limits on foreign ownership of financial There is an enormous concern about (32%), government or regulatory services companies due to which the bidder competition and price intervention (30%), and valuation local group gets protected from expectation gaps which were problems (27%) predatory takeovers; but as an identified as 22% each as per one Basel III Requirements enabler, it can also increase the study medium-term logic for M&A by This has been taken as a particular restricting the inflow of new entrants Lack of attractive targets source of concern on uncertainty and and expertise is expected to have a widening and Per one study, 32% rank this problem direct impact on bidder behavior, by as the second greatest deterrent. A increasing demand for a smaller Post-Deal Challenges lack of domestic opportunity scores deals at the expense of larger ones. high too and can be considered as Per one survey, this will stimulate Post deal barriers are of high major source of obstacle greater focus on targets‟ liquidity concern, particularly in terms of profiles (35%) and increasing interest human capital. Cultural and people in the quality of targets‟ risk challenges can be hard to manage in management controls (28%) any industry completely 22
  • 23. Exhibit 11: Current Principal Obstacles in Asian M&A (%) Exhibit 12: Expected Effects of Basel III on M&A in Asia (%) Price Expectation Gaps 22 Encourage greater focus on capital efficiency of 51 Capital restrictions 34 transactions Lack of attractive targets 32 Regulatory intervention 30 Increase demand for smaller deals 37 Valuation difficulty or uncertainty 27 Lack of domestic opportunities 25 Greater emphasis on targets' liquidity profiles 35 Poor external finance availability 22 Excessive competition 22 Stimulate divestments to release capital 33 Restrictions on equity ownership 20 Poor target information 18 Increase focus on targets' risk management 28 framework Weak shareholder value creation 17 Reputational risk 11 Lead to longer due diligence processes 22 EPS dilution 10 Distraction from core activities 10 Other (please specify) 2 Other (please specify) 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Exhibit 13: Management challenges during and after M&A (%) Culture/People issues 51 Technology integration issues 42 Regulatory approval and compliance issues 40 Operational and/or process issues 39 Synergy creation issues 35 Customer retention issues 25 Brand management issues 22 Business strategy issues 21 Other (please specify) 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Source: Industry Analysis, 2011 23
  • 24. Exhibit 14: If the primary motive for acquisition is to expand into new business lines, which of the following areas might attract the organization (%) Investment management 71 Private equity 71 Outsourcing provision 57 Capital markets 43 Retail banking 29 Corporate banking 29 Investment banking 29 Private banking 29 Life insurance 29 Non-life insurance 29 Reinsurance 29 Other (please specify)0 Source: Industry Analysis, 2011 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 M&A Activity in Asia Pacific Financial Services: Outlook The overall outlook for Asian financial On a short term basis, there is an services M&A is highly encouraging. uncertainty arising out from the Key considerations for this include sovereign debt markets of Europe and positive demographic trends, increasing the US, which could create additional levels of domestic consumption and opportunities for mergers and rapid expansion in the numbers of acquisitions in the region. A range of mass-affluent consumers along with the strategic priorities point to increasing increasing Eastward shift to the global appetite for deal making wealth management industry 24
  • 25. Having a look at the strategic rationale Furthermore, the growth potential of A range of strategic priorities point for further growth, there are certain asset management in to increasing appetite for deal- predictions made for India, Greater China, coupled with increasing making in the region going forward China and Australia along with the demand for cross-border potential areas of opportunity for investment, to stimulate crucial financial services transactions asset management M&A activity within Greater China during the next few years The Indian financial services market While private equity firms are still offers strong potential for a trigger in viewed with suspicion by regulators in this activity. The asset management a number of regional markets, the and non-bank financial sectors offer post-crisis phase of economic and clear scope for further consolidation financial recovery in Asia could offer where both are open to foreign attractive opportunities for private bidders seeking exposure to Indian equity investors growth prospects Potential areas for financial services transactions Despite the maturity of Australian financial services, it is expected from Life insurance in Mainland China with Mid-sized Indonesian banks offering the country to generate crucial M&A investment opportunities for product attractive investment opportunities to activity, which entails both outbound development skills of offer routes to strengthen capital ratio deals by the largest Australian offshore markets financial groups along with increasing inbound investment in fast growing asset management sector City commercial banks in Mainland Asset management and brokerage in China with some opportunities for Taiwan where recent transactions domestic mergers or foreign investors could prompt further round of consolidation 25
  • 26. Wealth Management: Market Sizing Global Overview Global private financial wealth grew by 1.9 percent in Globally, the amount of private wealth held in equities 2011 to reach a total of $122.8 trillion3 (Exhibit 15). The declined by 3.4 percent, driven by both negative market rise was considerably weaker than in either 2009 or performance and asset reallocation. Wealth held in 2010, when global wealth grew by 9.6 percent and 6.8 bonds grew by 3.3 percent and cash and deposits rose percent, respectively by 5.2 percent The evolution of private wealth varied by region in In reference to household segments, the highest growth 2011, highlighting how the year‟s economic turbulence rate was in the ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) segment affected the developed and developing worlds. North (households with more than $100 million in wealth) that America, Europe and Japan lost the private witnessed an increase by 3.6 percent – compared with wealth, while the rapidly developing markets in Asia average growth of 1.7 percent across all other Pacific and Latin America managed to sustain double- segments digit growth they have experienced in recent years The Middle East and Africa continued to grow but at a more moderate rate than in past years, owing particularly to regional political instability To support this view, the summary of accompanying Overall, global wealth in private wealth is clearly being figures is as follows: driven by rapidly developing economies and not by the already developed world (Exhibit 16). In BRIC Exhibit 15: The Growth of Global Wealth Slowed in 2011 countries, for instance, where nominal GDP growth was Exhibit 16: “New World” Drove the Modest Growth in 15.5 percent on weighted-average basis, wealth Global Wealth increased by 18.5 percent in 20114 Equity markets suffered across most of the world in 2011, with positive showings in only a few countries. Europe‟s equity markets were hurt the most, the Greece‟s falling by a staggering 52 percent 26
  • 27. Exhibit 15: The Growth of Global Wealth Slowed in 2011 Private financial wealth ($tri) 41.5 38.3 38.0 35.6 2009 2010 2011 2016 E 1.7 1.9 2.9 1.4 2.9 1.4 1.7 1.9 36.7 32.2 33.6 33.5 North America 2009 2010 2011 2016 E 2009 2010 2011 2016 E Eastern Europe 2009 2010 2011 2016 E Japan Western Europe 6.1 3.9 4.3 4.5 2009 2010 2011 2016 E 40.1 5.4 2.9 3.2 3.5 19.0 21.4 23.7 Middle East and Africa 151.2 112.9 120.6 122.8 2009 2010 2011 2016 E 2009 2010 2011 2016 E Latin America Asia Pacific (ex Japan) 2009 2010 2011 2016 E Global Source: BCG Analysis Note: Private financial wealth numbers for all years were converted to US$ at year-end 2011 exchange rates to exclude the effects of currency fluctuations. Percent changes and global totals are based on complete numbers. Calculations for 2009 and 27 2010 are based on the same methodology
  • 28. Exhibit 16: “New World” Drove the Modest Growth in Global Wealth Drivers Growth in 2011 GDP growth +3.2% f Newly created wealth1 Savings rate 4.7% “Old World” -0.9% • North America • Western Europe f • Japan Equity performance -12.2% Existing assets2 f Savings rate -1.6% Equity performance ~0% Global private + financial wealth GDP growth +11.3% +1.9% Newly created wealth1 f Savings rate 5.1% “New World” +10.0% • Asia Pacific (ex Japan) • Eastern Europe f • Latin America Equity performance -11.7% • Middle East and Africa Existing assets2 f Savings rate -0.7% ~0% Note: All growth rates are nominal, including GDP growth rates. Performance averages are unweighted Equity performance and reflect domestic market development 3 New private financial wealth, generated primarily through income 28 4 Growth in asset value Source: BCG Analysis
  • 29. Private wealth is expected to post a compound annual growth rate of 4 to 5 percent over the next five years to reach more than $150 trillion by the end of 2016. As per one estimation, equities will be the fastest growing asset class, with a projected CAGR of 4.9 percent. By end 2016, the share of global wealth held in equities should be 34.0 percent of the total, still below the precise share of 38.5 percent Additionally, over the next 5 years, the amount of wealth held by all clients with more than $1 million in wealth should show a CAGR of around 6 percent, driven prominently by an increasing number of households in this segment in Asia Pacific. Average wealth of such households is expected to increase just marginally; however, this segment will continue to grow the fastest over the next five years, by a projected CAGR of 8 percent Regional Variation The growth of private wealth varied widely across all regions in 2011 North America5 Western Europe6 Private wealth in North America declined by a Though the region didn‟t suffer as much as 0.9 percent in 2011 to $38 trillion. Overall, the North America, the euro debt crisis took its amount of wealth in equities and bonds toll, and private wealth declined by 0.4 decreased by 3.6 percent and 2.1 percent to $33.5 trillion, due to which the percent, respectively. The share held in cash region remained as the second wealthiest and deposits grew by 3.5 percent worldwide A near default on U.S. government Equities lost a 2.1 percent point debt, combined with the euro debt share, constituting 28.5 percent of the crisis, made 2011 an unpleasant year for the region‟s financial wealth at the end of 2011 US economy. All this, along with the downgrade of the nation‟s credit rating has Extreme levels of both government and led to significant investor uncertainty. North private debt, including the threat of American wealth is projected to post a CAGR bankruptcy faced by numerous European of 1.8 percent over the next five years to Union countries, led to double-digit stock reach $41.5 trillion by the end of 2016 market declines in some of the region‟s largest economies 29
  • 30. Offshore wealth declined by 2.2 percent CAGR of 11.1 percent, touching $40.1 trillion thereby reducing the share of total private by the end of 2016, at which time it will have wealth to 7.6 percent. Per an estimate, it is slightly overtaken Western and Eastern projected to show a CAGR of 1.8 percent to Europe (combined). These gains should be reach $36.7 trillion by the end of driven largely by sustained strong GDP 2016, primarily driven by moderate equity- growth in China and India and overall market recoveries in the largest economies stronger stock market performance Asia Pacific (ex Japan)7 Japan Private wealth in Asia Pacific (ex Japan) Private wealth in Japan decreased by 2.0 increased by 10.7 percent in 2011 to $23.7 percent in 2011 to $17.8 trillion. The value of trillion, enabling the region to widen its gap wealth held in equities fell by 7.6 with Japan as the third wealthiest area percent, while amounts held in bonds and globally. The strongest growth was in the cash along with deposits remained flat higher wealth bands, with the share of total wealth increased to 48 percent Drivers of the overall decline included the lingering effects of March 2011 tsunami and The amount of wealth in equities grew by 4.1 earthquake – and the subsequent Fukushima percent, a weaker performance than the nuclear plant – along with poor stock market annual growth of 17.7 percent witnessed over performance. Per one estimate, private the previous five years. Wealth held in bonds wealth is projected to post a CAGR of 0.8 rose sharply by 17.5 percent, and cash and percent to reach $18.5 trillion by the end of deposits increased by 13.4 percent 2016 Despite poor stock market performance in Eastern Europe8 several large countries, notably Indian and China, strong GDP growth driven primarily by Russia, with GDP growth well above high levels of government and private that of most mature economies, was the consumption led to new wealth generation. primary driver of the 2011 increase in Wealth in the region is expected to continue Easter European wealth that rose by growing at a double-digit rate with a projected 14.4 percent to $1.9 trillion 30
  • 31. Eastern European wealth is forecast to grow largely as a consequence of continued GDP way faster than Western European wealth – expansion in oil-rich countries at a CAGR of about 8.7 percent over the next five years, reaching $2.9 trillion by the end of Latin America10 2016, with the bulk ($2.0 trillion) held in Russia The region‟s private wealth grew by 10.6 percent in 2011 to $3.5 trillion, driven These gains will be driven primarily by the primarily by strong GDP growth in Brazil and region‟s status as the world‟s largest oil Mexico. Also, the region‟s stock markets were producer and its continuing GDP momentum less affected by global economic uncertainty than those in many other economies, with Middle East and Africa9 regional wealth held in equities rising by 2.8 percent This region‟s stock markets suffered from the political instability due to the uprisings across Wealth held in bonds soared by 16.6 the Arab world in 2011. Still, the region percent, and cash and deposits rose by 9.2 managed to improved upon its private wealth percent growth by 4.7 percent to $4.5 trillion, primarily driven by high savings rate and strong Private wealth in the region is project to post double-digit GDP growth in oil-rich countries a CAGR of 8.9 percent over the next five years to touch $5.4 trillion by the end of 2016. Though the amount of wealth held in equities This will be in wake of the onshore offerings decreased by 2.6 percent, the amount held in that are becoming more sophisticated as bonds rose by 13.3 percent and cash and international players enter the market Notes: deposits grew by 5.1 percent GDP data are from Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) This looks at three asset classes: equities, bonds, and cash and deposits 5. United States and Canada Wealth in the UHNW household segment 6. grew exponentially, posting 9.0 percent driven Germany, France, UK, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Belgi um, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Greece by the government programs benefiting large 7. Taiwan, China, Australia, South Korea, Hong family conglomerates. Private wealth in the Kong, India, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, and Pakistan region is project to show a CAGR of 6.6 8. Russia, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia percent to reach $6.1 trillion in 2016, 9. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, Turkey, South 31 Africa, Kuwait, Iran, Egypt, Algeria, Qatar, Oman, Morocco, Lebanon, Bahrain, Tunisia, Syria, Yemen, and Jordan 10. Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Uruguay
  • 32. Trends Shaping The Industry The landscape in this industry will change The economics of wealth managers will fundamentally over the next ten years as continue to be strained. Growth will be competitive dynamics, regulatory constrained due to tighter oversight, client behavior, and technology regulations, stricter compliance continue to evolve. A broad set of trends is requirements, and greater interest in already in place nonfinancial investments Revenue margins will be compressed by Emerging markets will fuel the growth of stronger competition through disruptive global wealth. In India and China, private business models, increased product wealth is projected to increase at a CAGR commoditization, limited trading of 19 percent and 15 percent, respectively activity, and a slow recovery of demand from the year end 2011 through 2016 – for complex products significantly faster than the global forecast of about 4 to 5 percent annually. Margins will also be affected by rising China, alone will account for 35 costs, new infrastructure percent, while India will account for 10 requirements, and the scarcity of top percent in global wealth talent This is likely to foster the development of More broadly, wealth managers should onshore investment opportunities and continue to protect their revenue streams new wealth management sectors by working on high value and higher margin solutions Emerging markets are still very diverse in terms of their nature, size and maturity levels. Few, such as Brazil are already Clients will become more sophisticated characterized by clear and transparent and more self-directed regarding plain regulation, highly developed capital products and services. It is expected that markets, and keen private banking clients from HNW and UHNW to increasingly use alternative channels to execute simple transactions 32
  • 33. All client segments will become more Products will become simpler and more discerning, demanding tailored advice and modular. More flexible, transparent, and solutions based on a comprehensive view of modular products will gain prominence as their financial needs. Wealth managers must investors seek simple solutions to strengthen their capacity to provide highly increasingly sophisticated problems customized solutions, permitting a more cost- efficient service model Multichannel capabilities and social-media Pricing will become more transparent and presence should be developed further. closely linked to service models. In Though online wealth managers and response to regulatory changes and also community banks will not be major to changes in client behavior, wealth competitors in the foreseeable future, the managers must continue to makes trend toward online services, increased prices, fees, and commissions more channel integration, and greater use of transparent. They also need to create a social media will have an impact – sharp distinction within high-and-low-cost creating more transparency offerings Advanced technology and infrastructure Pricing, in general, will become a pivotal become more essential. Wealth managers level for improving and bolstering client must enhance their IT capabilities in order acquisition and retention to keep up with client expectations. In order to provide a consistent and Risk management capabilities are critical. seamless experience across multiple Having tighter regulations and a higher channels, they will need a fully integrated profile in the mainstream media, players technology platform that has modular must reinvigorate risk management. applications. To offer tailored Stricter internal guidelines often lead to products, they will have to have a more time-consuming processes and higher modular product architecture costs. Overall, the right acts in reference to risk management must be strongly A break up of the value chain is embedded – bringing value to the client expected, leading to an increase in while also protecting from operational and outsourcing to third parties for IT and reputational risk operations 33
  • 34. Outlook The investment management industry in Asia Pacific has been through an extraordinary period of change and growth in recent years. There remain some significant short-term challenges to the industry, including management of performance in volatile markets, the on-going battle for talent and the fragmented nature of the Asian marketplace. However, the long-term prospects for the industry remain bright, particularly as investment managers continue to exploit the shift in economic activity towards the region The asset management industry continues to be highly attractive compared to other financial services sectors. However, in an era of elusive growth and deepened profitability, strategic decisions concerning where and how to compete have never been more crucial. Overall, the environment will be tougher, with few players enjoying the growth rates and profitability Wealth managers will still need to continue their cost-cutting and pricing initiatives, refocus on client discovery, master the ever-shifting regulatory environment, bolster risk management, and find ways to use alternative business models to their advantage. Only those wealth managers that take action, as opposed to wait-and-watch attitude, will be in a position to thrive regardless of which direction the markets ultimately take 34