Presented at the South Sound Science Symposium, September 2016

1. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Ecological Carrying Capacity
and the Influence of Shellfish
Culture in South Puget Sound
BOBBI HUDSON, PACIFIC SHELLFISH INSTITUTE
SOUTH SOUND SCIENCE SYMPOSIUM
SEPTEMBER 20, 2016

2. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Next 15 Minutes…
 PSI: Who we are
 Research purpose
 Project components
 Why Ecopath
 Scenarios in EcoSim
 Results & what they mean
 Future directions
Text
0 5 10 15 202.5
Miles
±
Hood Canal
South
Puget
Sound
Tacoma
a
Seattle

3. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Pacific Shellfish Institute (PSI)
 Washington-based 501(c)3
 Established in 1995 with
strong linkages to the Pacific
Coast Shellfish Growers
Association (PCSGA)
 In 2004, PSI Bylaws were
changed to provide a clearer
separation from PCSGA
Research Org.
Trade Assoc.

4. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
PSI Staff
Bobbi Hudson, Aimee Christy, Andy Suhrbier, Steve Booth, Dan Cheney, Katie Houle, Mary Middleton

5. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
PSI Landscape
 PSI’s funding source:
1. Competitive fed. grants
2. Priv. foundation grants
 High level of industry
cooperation & in-kind
support
 Partnerships are very
important
Other (25+ sources)
9%
NOAA-NMFS
2% USDA-Ag Research
2%
Russell Family
Foundation
2%
PCSGA
2%
WA Oyster
Reserve
3%
Industry
3%
USDA
4%
WSU
8%
NOAA-SK
14%
NOAA-Sea
Grant
51%
$8M: 1995 – June 2015

6. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Project Goal & Funding
 Assess ecological & social carrying
capacity of south Puget Sound
 Provide tools & information
 Provide recommendations for
multi-use spatial planning
 Include sustainable shellfish
aquaculture
 Funding: NOAA thru WA Sea Grant

7. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Project Work Group
Bobbi Hudson and Dan Cheney, PSI
*David Preikshot, Madrone Enviro. Services
J. Ferreira & C. Saurel, Longline Enviro., Ltd
Suzanne Bricker, NOAA National Ocean Service
Mindy Roberts, WA Dept. of Ecology (at time)
Danna Moore and Thom Allen, WSU
Teri King, Washington Sea Grant
Joth Davis, Taylor Shellfish

8. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Production, Ecological & Social
Carrying Capacity Assessment
South Puget Sound
Production
Carrying Capacity
Ecological
Carrying
Capacity
Region Guidance & Outreach
Stakeholder Working Group
Review of local priorities, plans, policies
FARM Model
DELIVERABLESPESCAACTIVITIES
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
Objective 4
ASSETS
EcoWin Model
EcoPATH Model
Public
Perceptions
Survey
Social
Carrying Capacity

9. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Ecological Carrying Capacity
Maximum extractive pressure that does not
cause unacceptable change in the ecosystem

10. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
South Puget Sound (SPS)
 S. of Tacoma Narrows
 Area: 445 km2
 Shallow:
~42m mean depth
 Private tidelands
 Modest development;
some high density;
many waterfront
residences

11. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Why Ecopath?
 A way to visualize the biomass of a suite of
species groups over time
 To account for biomass we consider:
 mortality rates or ‘production’ of the spp. group
 food intake
 diet composition
 Mass Balanced Approach
 Stakeholder-guided process to:
 Gather the best data (population/biomass)
 Ask relevant questions (scenario development)

12. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Process
Visualizing Ecological Interactions of SPS
Work-
shop Purpose
Info. exchange
Outcome
Modeler to Stakeholder Stakeholder to Modeler
3/13
Conceptual
diagram
Present conceptual
diagram of south Puget
Sound marine ecosystem,
explain how EwE works
Likely request changes to
model &/or alter
ecosystem diagram
Shared ownership in
process, stake in outcome
of ecological carrying
capacity calculation
4/14
Data sources &
input parameters
Present data sources,
parameters and proposed
Ecosim simulations
Likely alter input
parameters, suggest &/or
alter Ecosim simulations
Acceptance of input
parameters and agreement
on Ecosim simulations to
be performed
1/16
Ecological
carrying capacity
calculations
Present carrying capacity
calculations (results)
Recommend how to
disseminate results, and
to whom
Acceptance of carrying
capacity results

13. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Ecopath Basics
1. the big ones eat the small ones
2. there are more small ones than big ones
3. the big ones live longer
4. herbivores eat more than carnivores
FoodClipArt.com

14. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
SPS Food Web

15. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Our Ecopath with EcoSim (EwE)
 Simulates known historic changes (1970-2012)
 “Tuned” by fitting hind cast annual average
biomass changes to data from stock
assessments of abundance surveys
 Forecasts potential changes (2012-2054) of
the biomass of 12 key species of marine
mammals, marine birds, salmon, game fish
and bivalves

16. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Modeled biomass change:
1970-2012

17. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
EcoSim
 Simulations forecast potential future
ecosystem configurations:
1. varying future phytoplankton
productivity
2. changes in abundance
of mediating species
3. changes in certain
fisheries and aquaculture
management policies

18. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
EcoSim Forecasting the Future
Past primary
production
dynamics
drives future
simulations
Future similar
to the past

19. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Eelgrass Kelp Oyster drills Jellies
increase 25% increase 25% increase 2x decrease 50%
decrease 25% decrease 25% increase 4x increase 2x
increase 8x
Scenarios: Changes in
Mediating Conditions
jaxshells.org
A. Christy
B. Hudson
B. Hudson

20. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Scenarios: Changes in
Fishing & Aquaculture Policies
B. Hudson photos
BAU Fishing & aquaculture unchanged
Sea Lion F Sea Lion control fishery introduced in 2015
Sm Crab F Small crab control fishery introduced in 2015
WGeo 1.5x Wild geoduck biomass increase 50%
FGeo 1.5x Farmed geoduck biomass increase 10x
FmOyst 2x Farmed oyster biomass increase 2x
FmOyst 10x Farmed oyster biomass increase 10x
FmMsl 2x Farmed mussel biomass increase 2x
FmMsl 10x Farmed mussel biomass increase 10x
FmClm 2x Farmed clam biomass increase 2x
FmClm 10x Farmed clam biomass increase 10x

21. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Forecasting in EcoSim

22. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Farmed geoduck is
increased 10x by 2025,
and the annual
phytoplankton
production is 25% less
than it was in 1970-2012
EcoSim

23. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Forecasting in EcoSim

24. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Results Summary
In all scenarios of future
marine production:
 few trophic effects on
the SPS ecosystem
when maintaining or
significantly increasing
shellfish aquaculture

25. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Future Directions
1. Potential economic change from policy
changes
2. Shifts in cultured species between oyster,
clam and geoduck; and new species
3. Water quality, regulatory and management
considerations

26. Pacific Shellfish Institute
SHELLFISH RESEARCH AND INFORMATION SERVICES
Thank you!
Bobbi Hudson
(360) 754-2741
bobbi@pacshell.org
www.pacshell.org