A focus on actions in 2015 will accelerate the transition from the past 14 years of global disaster proneness to global disaster resilience by 2020. A snaphot of our world circa 1st January 2015: 7+ billion people, and growing while Living and competing in an interconnected global economy, producing $60 trillion+ of products each year,and facing complex disasters every year that cause multi-billions in losses and reduce a community’s ability to withstand natural catastrophes. The challenge of our time in the 21st century: Protecting and preserving PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES from the potential disaster agents of natural hazards. The “best solution set” vis a vis the global policy framework to strengthen disaster resilience include (1) anticipate and plan for the full spectrum of what can happen; (2) to build capacity at the community level to strengthen disaster in the areas of preparedness, protection, early warning, emergency response, and recovery/reconstruction; (3) to be relentless in informing, educating, training, and building equity in all areas that constitute disaster resilience in all sectors of every community in every nation. WE KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO IT. But just knowing is not enough. Tangible action is essential to reach the urgent goal of global disaster resilience by 2020 and will require that all communities work strategically to implement a realistic set of scientific, technical, and political solutions nested within EXISTING administrative, legal, and economic constraints. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction.

1. THE FRAMEWORK OF GLOBAL DISASTER
RESILIENCY IN THE CONTEXT OF
21ST CENTURY REALITIES

2. A FOCUS ON
ACTIONS IN 2015 THAT WILL
ACCELERATE
THE TRANSITION FROM THE
PAST 14 YEARS OF GLOBAL
DISASTER PRONENESS
TO
GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
BY 2020

3. THE CHALLENGE OF OUR
TIME IN THE 21ST CENTURY
• Protecting and
preserving
PEOPLE and
COMMUNITIES
from the potential
disaster agents of
natural hazards

4. A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD
• 7+ billion people, and growing while…
• Living and competing in an
interconnected global economy,
• Producing $60 trillion+ of products each
year, and
• Facing complex disasters every year that
cause $multi-billions in losses and reduce
a community’s 3 S’s, 5 E’s, and 1 H.

5. THE 3 S’s
• SAFETY (loss of
life and function
from the potential
disaster agents of
natural hazards
that kill and injure
and disrupt the
lives of tens of
millions each year)

6. THE 3 S’s (CONTINUED)
• SECURITY (loss of
homes and jobs)
• SUSTAINABILITY
(loss of national
GDP, global
competiveness,
and overall
staying power)

7. THE FIVE E’s
• ECONOMY
• ENERGY
• ENVIRONMENT
• ECOLOGY
• EDUCATION

8. THE H
• HEALTH (A state
of complete,
physical, mental,
and social well
being; NOT merely
the absence of
disease or
infirmity, WHO)

9. A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when
three continuums: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,
earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in
space and time, when and where the
people and community are not ready.

10. THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF
EVERY DISASTER
• PEOPLE
• COMMUNITY
• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA the potential disaster agents
of Natural Hazards, which are proof
of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

11. INTER-CONNECTED WEAK-LINKS
CAUSE DISASTERS
• UN--PREPARED
• UN—PROTECTED
• UN--WARNED
• UN--ABLE TO RESPOND
• UN—ABLE TO RECOVER

12. LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS
DURING THE 21ST CENTURY
•Non-disaster-resilient communities (with
the associated morbidity, mortality,
homelessness, and economic losses)
• Global climate change over time
• Environmental degradation and pollution of air,
water, and soil
• Endangerment and extinction of plant and
animal life

13. LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS
DURING THE 21ST CENTURY
• Poverty
• Chronic hunger
• Urgent health care needs
• Increasing risk of pandemic disease
• Large-scale migrations of people
• Endangered plant and animal life
• Conflict and terrorism

14. THE LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY
THAT WE DON’T WANT
Unless we design and implement
realistic new paradigms for disaster
resilience, OUR LOSSES in terms of
the 3 S’s, 5 E’s, and 1 H may grow
so rapidly that we may reach
“tipping points,” before we realize it,
and …

15. THE LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY
THAT WE DON’T WANT (CONTINUED)
. . . Discover that we are the ones
that caused an unnecessary and
irreversible reduction in the quality
of all life on Planet Earth.

16. THE “BEST SOLUTION SET”: THE
FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
• To anticipate and plan for the full
spectrum of what can happen
• To build capacity at the community
level for ALL 5 pillars of disaster
resilience: preparedness, protection,
early warning, emergency response,
and recovery/reconstruction

17. THE “BEST SOLUTION SET”: THE
FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
• To be relentless in informing,
educating, training, and building
equity for all five pillars of disaster
resilience in all sectors of every
community in every nation

18. WE KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO
IT, --- so, let’s DO IT by 2020!
• We can reach the urgent goal of
global disaster resilience by 2020 if
communities work strategically to
implement a realistic set of
scientific, technical, and political
solutions--- nested within EXISTING
administrative, legal, and economic
constraints.

19. HERE’S WHAT WE NEED
STAKEHOLDERS
 PARTNERSHIPS
 INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND
PUBLIC POLICY FOR:
PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION,
EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE, AND
RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCTION

20. CONNECT THE 5 PILLARS OF DISASTER
RESILIENCE
RECOVERY/RE-
CONSTRCTION
ALL ELEMENTS ARE
INTERRELATED
PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION
EARLY
WARNING
EM.
RESPONSE

23. FORGE A GLOBAL AGENDA FOR DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EXPERIENCES WITH
PREPAREDNESS
EXPERIENCES WITH
PROTECTION
GLOBAL BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE
EXPERIENCES WITH EARLY
WARNING AND EMERGENCY
RESPONSE
EXPERIENCES WITH
RECOVERY AND
RECONSTRUCTION
GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS
THAT BUILD ON THE PAST
(1990 TO THE PRESENT)
WHILE LOOKING TO 2020

24. FACTORS THAT WILL FACILITATE
SUCCESS BY 2020
• PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND
THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET.
• A COMMON AGENDA FOR PARTNERSHIPS
WORKING ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD
• NATIONAL PRIDE CAUSING POLITICAL
LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS TO DEVISE AND
IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.

25. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER
SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE
NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF
ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND
THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND
RESOURCES TO IMPLEMENT THE KINDS
OF ACTIONS THAT ARE NEEDED.

26. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER
SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER REAL
CHANGE BY INTEGRATING POLICIES AND
BEST PRACTICES FOR PREPAREDNESS,
PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EMER-
GENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY/RECON-
STRUCTION BASED ON EXISTING LEGAL
MANDATES AND ASSETS.

27. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER
SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST,
AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL
WE ACHIEVE THE KINDS OF ACTIONS
NEEDED TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS
FACED BY LOCAL COMMUN ITIES IN
EVERY REGION.

28. TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE BY 2020
THE KNOWLEDGE BASE
Best Practices for Mitigation
and Adaptation
Gateways to a Deeper
Understanding
Real and Near- Real Time
Monitoring/Communication
Vulnerability and Risk
Characterization
Anticipatory Actions for all
Events and Situations
Situation Data Bases
Interfaces with all Real- and
Near Real-Time Sources
Cause & Effect Relationships
CAPACITY BUILDING
Close Gaps in Knowledge
and Implementation
Seek out, Engage, equip,
and Enable “Partnerships”
Transfer Ownership of the
Knowledge Bases
Transfer Ownership of
Emerging Technologies
Move Towards A Disaster
Intelligent Community
CONTINUING EDUCATION
Engage Partners in
Learning Experiences
Enlighten Communities on
Their Risks
Build Strategic Equity
Through Scenarios
Multiply “Partnerships” by
Regioal/global Twinning
Update Knowledge Bases
After Each Scenario
TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Preparedness, Protection, Early
Warning, Emergency Response, and Recovery/Reconstruction

29. YOUR
COMMUNITY
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
DISASTER RESILIENCE
POLICIES / PRACTICES::
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EM. RESPONSE
•RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.
COMMUNITY GOALS