1. DAILY I FOREX REPORT
15TH FEBRUARY 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
2. HEADLINES
Euro May Fall As Deepening
Recession Drives ECB
Easing Bets
Dollar At Risk Below 2012
High, S&P 500 Looking Top-
Heavy
TRADING TIPS Euro Sets a 2-Week Low as
the Euro-Zone Recession
SELL EURUSD Continues
BELOW 1.3320 tgs
THE TAKEAWAY: Euro-zone GDP
1.3305/1.3290 sl declines 0.6% in Q4, more than
1.3340 expected -> ECB predicts a
recovery later in 2013 -> Euro
declines to a 2-week low
BUY USDJPY ABOVE
93.71 tgt The Euro-zone economy contracted for the
third straight quarter in Q4, thereby extending
93.86/94.06 SL 93.57 the area’s technical recession. The gross
domestic product declined 0.6% over the
quarter (seasonally adjusted), the highest
quarterly decline in nearly 4-years, and the
SELL GBPUSD decline was worse than an expected 0.4%
contraction and Q3’s 0.1% decline. The Euro-
zone GDP dropped 0.9% from Q4 2011
BELOW 1.5492 tgt according to a Eurostat initial estimate.
1.5478/1.5464 SL
1.5506
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8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon AUD Home Loans
00:30 Medium -1.5% 0.0% -0.7%
Feb 11 (DEC)
AUD Value of Loans
00:30 Low -2.7% 0.5%
(MoM) (DEC)
AUD Investment
00:30 Low -2.4% -3.2%
Lending (DEC)
EUR Euro-Area
13:30 Finance Ministers Meet High
in Brussels
NZD NZ Card
21:45 Medium 0.4%
Spending (MoM) (JAN)
NZD NZ Card
21:45 Spending - Retail Medium 0.3% 0.3%
(MoM) (JAN)
JPY Japan Money
23:50 Low 2.3% 2.2%
Stock M3 (YoY) (JAN)
JPY Japan Money
23:50 Stock M2+CD (YoY) Low 2.6% 2.6%
(JAN)
EUR German
Tue
Feb 12
Wholesale Price Index Low 3.2%
(YoY) (JAN)
EUR German
Wholesale Price Index Low 0.0%
(MoM) (JAN)
GBP RICS House Price
00:01 Medium 1% 0.0%
Balance (JAN)
AUD NAB Business
00:30 Medium 3
Confidence (JAN)
AUD RBA Credit Card
00:30 Low $A21.8B
Purchases (DEC)
AUD RBA Credit Card
00:30 Low $A49.5B
Balances (DEC)
AUD NAB Business
00:30 Low -4
Conditions (JAN)
JPY Machine Tool
06:00 Medium -27.5%
Orders (YoY) (JAN P)
CHF Consumer Price
08:15 Medium -0.3% -0.4%
Index (YoY) (JAN)
CHF CPI - EU
08:15 Harmonised (YoY) Medium -0.3%
(JAN)
CHF Consumer Price
08:15 Low -0.3% -0.2%
Index (MoM) (JAN)
CHF CPI - EU
08:15 Harmonised (MoM) Low 0.1%
(JAN)
GBP Core Consumer
09:30 Price Index (YoY) High 2.4% 2.4%
(JAN)
9. GBP Consumer Price
09:30 High 2.7% 2.7%
Index (YoY) (JAN)
GBP Retail Price Index
09:30 Medium 3.2% 3.1%
(YoY) (JAN)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Output n.s.a. Medium 2.0% 2.2%
(YoY) (JAN)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Output Core Medium 1.4% 1.5%
n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)
GBP Consumer Price
09:30 Medium -0.5% 0.5%
Index (MoM) (JAN)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Output n.s.a. Low 0.2% -0.1%
(MoM) (JAN)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Output Core Low 0.1% 0.0%
n.s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) Low 1.0% 0.3%
(JAN)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Input n.s.a. Low 0.8% -0.2%
(MoM) (JAN)
GBP DCLG UK House
09:30 Low 2.0% 2.1%
Prices (YoY) (DEC)
GBP Retail Price Index
09:30 Low -0.5% 0.5%
(MoM) (JAN)
GBP Retail Price Index
09:30 Ex Mort Int.Payments Low 3.1% 3.0%
(YoY) (JAN)
GBP Retail Price Index
09:30 Low 245.6 246.8
(JAN)
USD Mortgage
12:00 Low 7.4%
Delinquencies (4Q)
USD MBA Mortgage
12:00 Low 4.1%
Foreclosures (4Q)
USD NFIB Small
12:30 Business Optimism Low 89 88
(JAN)
USD JOLTs Job
15:00 Low 3676
Openings (DEC)
USD Fed's George
16:30 Speaks on the Low
Economy in Nebraska
USD Monthly Budget
19:00 Medium -$2.00B -$27.41B
Statement (JAN)
AUD Westpac
23:30 Consumer Confidence Medium 0.6%
(FEB)
AUD Westpac
23:30 Consumer Confidence Low 100.6
Index (FEB)
JPY Tertiary Industry
23:50 Medium 0.7% -0.3%
Index (MoM) (DEC)
10. JPY Domestic
23:50 Corporate Goods Price Low -0.3% -0.6%
Index (YoY) (JAN)
JPY Domestic
23:50 Corporate Goods Price Low 0.2% 0.3%
Index (MoM) (JAN)
USD Fed's Plosser
Wed
Feb 13
00:30 Speaks on Economic Low
Outlook in Stanford
USD Fed's Lacker
00:30 Speaks on Economics Low
in Lancaster
CHF Producer & Import
08:15 Low 1.0% 1.0%
Prices (YoY) (JAN)
CHF Producer & Import
08:15 Low 0.0% 0.1%
Prices (MoM) (JAN)
EUR Euro-Zone
10:00 Industrial Production Medium -2.4% -3.7%
w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)
EUR Euro-Zone
10:00 Industrial Production Low 0.2% -0.3%
s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
GBP Bank of England
10:30 High
Inflation Report
USD MBA Mortgage
12:00 Low
Applications (FEB 8)
USD Advance Retail
13:30 High 0.1% 0.5%
Sales (JAN)
USD Retail Sales Less
13:30 Medium 0.1% 0.3%
Autos (JAN)
USD Retail Sales Ex
13:30 Low 0.4% 0.6%
Auto & Gas (JAN)
USD Retail Sales
13:30 Low 0.2% 0.6%
"Control Group" (JAN)
USD Import Price Index
13:30 Low -1.5%
(YoY) (JAN)
USD Import Price Index
13:30 Low 0.8% -0.1%
(MoM) (JAN)
USD Business
15:00 Medium 0.3% 0.3%
Inventories (DEC)
USD DOE U.S.
15:30 Gasoline Inventories Low
(FEB 8)
USD DOE U.S.
15:30 Distillate Inventory Low
(FEB 8)
USD DOE U.S. Crude
15:30 Low
Oil Inventories (FEB 8)
USD DOE Cushing OK
15:30 Crude Inventory (FEB Low
8)
USD Fed's Bullard to
Speak on Economy at
16:10 Low
Arkansas State
University
11. NZD Business NZ
Performance of
21:30 Medium 50.1
Manufacturing Index
(JAN)
NZD Food Prices
21:45 Low -0.2%
(MoM) (JAN)
JPY Nominal Gross
23:50 Domestic Product High 0.0% -0.9%
(QoQ) (4Q P)
JPY Gross Domestic
23:50 High 0.1% -0.9%
Product (QoQ) (4Q P)
JPY Gross Domestic
23:50 Product Annualized High 0.4% -3.5%
(4Q P)
JPY Gross Domestic
23:50 Product Deflator (YoY) Low -0.5% -0.8%
(4Q P)
Thu JPY Bank of Japan
Feb 14
High -0.2% 0.10%
Rate Decision (FEB 14)
CNY Actual FDI (YoY)
Medium -0.2% -4.5%
(JAN)
AUD Consumer
00:00 Inflation Expectation Medium 2.0%
(FEB)
NZD ANZ Consumer
00:00 Confidence (MoM) Low 3.1%
(FEB)
NZD ANZ Consumer
00:00 Confidence Index Low 118.3
(FEB)
JPY Tokyo
04:00 Condominium Sales Low -3.0%
(YoY) (JAN)
EUR French Gross
06:30 Domestic Product Medium 0.5% 0.0%
(YoY) (4Q P)
EUR French Gross
06:30 Domestic Product Low -0.5% 0.1%
(QoQ) (4Q P)
EUR German Gross
07:00 Domestic Product High 0.9%
w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)
EUR German Gross
07:00 Domestic Product High 0.4%
n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)
EUR German Gross
07:00 Domestic Product s.a. Medium 0.2% 0.2%
(QoQ) (4Q P)
EUR ECB Publishes
09:00 High
Monthly Report
EUR Italian Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
09:00 Medium -2.4%
and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q
P)
EUR Italian Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
09:00 Low -0.2%
and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q
P)
12. EUR Euro-Zone Gross
10:00 Domestic Product s.a. High -0.6%
(YoY) (4Q A)
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
10:00 Domestic Product s.a. Medium -0.1%
(QoQ) (4Q A)
USD Initial Jobless
13:30 Medium 360K 366K
Claims (FEB 10)
USD Continuing Claims
13:30 Low 3200K 3224K
(FEB 3)
USD EIA Natural Gas
15:30 Storage Change (FEB Low -118
8)
NZD Retail Sales Ex
21:45 Medium -0.4%
Inflation (QoQ) (4Q)
JPY Japan Buying
23:50 Foreign Stocks (Yen) Low
(FEB 8)
JPY Japan Buying
23:50 Foreign Bonds (Yen) Low
(FEB 8)
JPY Foreign Buying
23:50 Japan Stocks (Yen) Low ¥419.5B
(FEB 8)
JPY Foreign Buying
23:50 Japan Bonds (Yen) Low
(FEB 8)
Fri USD Revisions of
Low
Feb 15 Producer Price Index
CNY MNI February
01:35 Flash Business Low
Sentiment Indicator
NZD Non Resident
02:00 Low 64.0%
Bond Holdings (JAN)
JPY Industrial
04:30 Production (YoY) (DEC Medium -7.8%
F) (DEC F)
JPY Industrial
04:30 Production (MoM) Low 2.5%
(DEC F) (DEC F)
JPY Capacity
04:30 Utilization (MoM) (DEC Low -0.2%
F) (DEC F)
USD G20 Finance
Ministers and Central
05:00 Medium
Bank Governors
Meeting in Russia
GBP Retail Sales
09:30 w/Auto Fuel (YoY) Medium 0.9% 0.3%
(JAN)
GBP Retail Sales (YoY)
09:30 Medium 1.6% 1.1%
(JAN)
GBP Retail Sales
09:30 w/Auto Fuel (MoM) Low 0.5% -0.1%
(JAN)
GBP Retail Sales
09:30 Low 0.5% -0.3%
(MoM) (JAN)
13. EUR Euro-Zone Trade
10:00 Balance s.a. (euros) Low 10.6B 11.0B
(DEC)
EUR Euro-Zone Trade
10:00 Low 12.0B 13.7B
Balance (euros) (DEC)
USD Empire
13:30 Low -2 -7.78
Manufacturing (FEB)
CAD Manufacturing
13:30 Shipments (MoM) Low -0.5% 1.7%
(DEC)
USD Net Long-term
14:00 Medium $52.3B
TIC Flows (DEC)
CAD Existing Home
14:00 Medium -0.5%
Sales (MoM) (JAN)
USD Total Net TIC
14:00 Low $27.8B
Flows (DEC)
USD Manufacturing
14:15 Medium 0.2% 0.8%
(SIC) Production (JAN)
USD Industrial
14:15 Medium 0.2% 0.3%
Production (JAN)
USD Capacity
14:15 Low 78.9% 78.8%
Utilization (JAN)
USD U. of Michigan
14:55 High 74.5 73.8
Confidence (FEB P)
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