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Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 30 may 2013
1. DAILY I FOREX REPORT
30th
MAY 2013
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Euro May Rise As ECB
Stimulus Bets Recede, US
Dollar At Risk
USD/CAD- Trading the Bank
of Canada (BoC) Rate
Decision
Although the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected
to keep the benchmark interest rate at 1.00% in May,
the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric accompanying
the rate decision may dampen the appeal of the
Canadian dollar should Governor Mark Carney adopt a
more dovish tone for monetary policy. As Canada
faces a slowing recovery, the BoC may scale back its
willingness to deliver a rate hike, and the central bank
remains poised to carry its wait-and-see approach into
the second-half of the year in an effort to stem the
downside risks for growth and inflation.
As rising home prices paired with the expansion in
private sector lending raises the threat of an asset
bubble, Governor Carney has persistently talked up
bets for a rate hike, and the central bank head may
show a greater willingness to normalize monetary
policy as the fundamental outlook for the United States
– Canada’s largest trading partner – improves.
However, the slowdown in retail sales along with the
ongoing slack in the real economy may prompt the
BoC to adopt a more dovish tone for monetary policy,
and the central bank may scale back its willingness to
raise the benchmark interest rate in order to
encourage a stronger recovery.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.2900 TGT 1.2920/1.2940
SL 1.2870
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 102.55
TGT 102.75/102.95 SL
102.25
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5010 TGT 1.4990/1.4970
SL 1.5040
HEADLINES
8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
May 26
23:01
GBP Hometrack
Housing Survey (MoM)
(MAY)
Low 0.4% 0.3%
23:01
GBP Hometrack
Housing Survey (YoY)
(MAY)
Low 0.4% 0.2%
23:50
JPY Bank of Japan
Releases April 26
Meeting Minutes
High
Mon
May 27
01:30
CNY Industrial Profits
YTD (YoY) (APR)
Low 11.4%. 12.1%
23:50
JPY Corporate Service
Price (YoY) (APR)
Low -0.2% -0.2%
Tue
May 28
CNY Leading Index
(APR)
Medium 99.38
03:45
JPY BoJ Board
Member Miyao Speaks
at Correspondents'
Club
Low
05:00
JPY Small Business
Confidence (MAY)
Medium 49.4
06:00
CHF Trade Balance
(Swiss franc) (APR)
Medium 2.00B 1.90B
06:00
CHF Exports (MoM)
(APR)
Low 5.1%
06:00
CHF Imports (MoM)
(APR)
Low 2.0%
06:00
EUR German Import
Price Index (MoM)
(APR)
Low -0.4% -0.1%
06:00
EUR German Import
Price Index (YoY)
(APR)
Low -2.3% -2.3%
13:00
USD S&P/CS 20 City
s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Low 1.0% 1.2%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller
Composite-20 (YoY)
(MAR) (MAR)
Low 10.2% 9.3%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller
Home Price Index
(MAR) (MAR)
Low 147.48 146.57
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9. 13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller
US Home Price Index
(YoY) (1Q)
Low 7.3%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller
US Home Price Index
(1Q)
Low 135.22
14:00
USD Richmond Fed
Manufacturing Index
(MAY)
Low -4 -6
14:00
LIVE
USD Consumer
Confidence (MAY)
High 71 68.1
14:30
USD Dallas Fed
Manufacturing Activity
(MAY)
Low -10 -15.6
23:50
JPY Large Retailers'
Sales (APR)
Medium -0.6% 2.4%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade s.a.
(MoM) (APR)
Low 0.0% -1.4%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade (YoY)
(APR)
Medium -0.5% -0.3%
Wed
May 29
00:00
AUD CBAHIA House
Affordability (1Q)
Low 68.9
00:00
JPY Bank of Japan
Governor Kuroda
Speaks at BOJ
Conference
Medium
00:30
AUD Westpac Leading
Index (MoM) (MAR)
(MAR)
Medium 0.6%
01:30
AUD Construction
Work Done (1Q)
Low 1.0% -0.1%
06:00
CHF UBS Consumption
Indicator (APR)
Medium 1.25
07:00
JPY BoJ Holds Meeting
with Investors and
Market Participants
Low
07:55
EUR German
Unemployment Change
(MAY)
High 5K 4K
07:55
EUR German
Unemployment Rate
s.a. (MAY)
High 6.9% 6.9%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3
s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Low 2.9% 2.6%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3
s.a. (3M) (APR)
Low 2.9% 3.0%
09:00
LIVE
EUR EC OECD May
Economic Outlook
(MAY)
Medium
10:00
GBP CBI Reported
Sales (MAY)
Low 3 -1
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage
Applications (MAY 24)
Low -9.8%
10. 12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index
(MoM) (MAY P)
Medium 0.2% -0.5%
12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index
(YoY) (MAY P)
High 1.3% 1.2%
12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index -
EU Harmonised (MoM)
(MAY P)
Medium 0.2% -0.5%
12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index -
EU Harmonised (YoY)
(MAY P)
High 1.4% 1.1%
12:30
CAD Average Weekly
Earnings (YoY) (MAR)
Low 3.1%
14:00
LIVE
CAD Bank of Canada
Rate Decision (MAY
29)
High 1.00% 1.00%
16:15
USD Former Fed
Chairman Paul Volcker
Speaks in New York
Low
17:00
USD Fed's Rosengren
Speaks on Economy in
Minneapolis
Low
22:45
NZD Building Permits
(MoM) (APR)
Low -9.1%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Bonds (Yen)
(MAY 24)
Medium -¥804.4B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Stocks (Yen)
(MAY 24)
Medium -¥136.9B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen)
(MAY 24)
Low ¥17.7B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen)
(MAY 24)
Low ¥716.0B
Thu
May 30
01:30
AUD Building
Approvals (MoM)
(APR)
Low 4.0% -5.5%
01:30
AUD Building
Approvals (YoY) (APR)
Medium 22.5% 3.9%
01:30
AUD Private Capital
Expenditure (1Q)
Low 0.5% -1.2%
05:45
CHF Gross Domestic
Product (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium 0.2% 0.2%
05:45
CHF Gross Domestic
Product (YoY) (1Q)
Medium 1.0% 1.4%
06:00
GBP Nationwide House
Prices s.a. (MoM)
(MAY)
Low 0.5% -0.1%
06:00
GBP Nationwide House
Prices n.s.a. (YoY)
(MAY)
Medium 0.9% 0.9%
11. 08:15
JPY BoJ Deputy
Governor Nakaso
Speaks at Bellwether
Conference
Low
08:30
GBP Lloyds Business
Barometer (MAY)
Low 27
09:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone
Economic Confidence
(MAY)
Medium 89.4 88.6
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Business Climate
Indicator (MAY)
Low -0.85 -0.93
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Industrial Confidence
(MAY)
Low -13 -13.8
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Confidence
(MAY F)
Medium -21.9 -21.9
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Services Confidence
(MAY)
Low -10.6 -11.1
12:30
CAD Current Account
(BoP) (Canadian dollar)
(1Q)
Low -$15.7B -$17.3B
12:30
USD Gross Domestic
Product (Annualized)
(1Q S)
High 2.5% 2.5%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption (1Q S)
High 3.3% 3.2%
12:30
USD Gross Domestic
Product Price Index
(1Q S)
High 1.2% 1.2%
12:30
USD Core Personal
Consumption
Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q
S)
Medium 1.2% 1.2%
12:30
CAD Industrial Product
Price (MoM) (APR)
Low -0.3% 0.1%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless
Claims (MAY 25)
Medium 340K 340K
12:30
CAD Raw Materials
Price Index (MoM)
(APR)
Low -0.9% -1.7%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims
(MAY 18)
Low 2970K 2912K
14:00
USD Pending Home
Sales (MoM) (APR)
Low 1.50% 1.50%
14:00
USD Pending Home
Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium 12.6% 5.8%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas
Storage Change (MAY
24)
Low 89
15:00
USD DOE U.S. Crude
Oil Inventories (MAY
24)
Low -338K
12. 15:00
USD DOE Cushing OK
Crude Inventory (MAY
24)
Low 449K
15:00
USD DOE U.S.
Gasoline Inventories
(MAY 24)
Low 3015K
15:00
USD DOE U.S.
Distillate Inventory
(MAY 24)
Low -1052K
16:35
USD OFR's Berner
speaks on Financial
Stability
Low
22:45
NZD Terms of Trade
Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium -1.3%
23:01
GBP GfK Consumer
Confidence Survey
(MAY)
Medium -26 -27
23:15
JPY Nomura/JMMA
Manufacturing
Purchasing Manager
Index (MAY)
Medium 51.1
23:30
JPY Household
Spending (YoY) (APR)
Medium 3.0% 5.2%
23:30
JPY Jobless Rate
(APR)
Medium 4.1% 4.1%
23:30
JPY Job-To-Applicant
Ratio (APR)
Low 0.87 0.86
23:30
JPY National
Consumer Price Index
(YoY) (APR)
High -0.7% -0.9%
23:30
JPY National
Consumer Price Index
Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)
(APR)
Medium -0.4% -0.5%
23:30
JPY National
Consumer Price Index
Ex Food, Energy (YoY)
(APR)
Medium -0.7% -0.8%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer
Price Index (YoY)
(MAY)
Low -0.4% -0.7%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer
Price Index Ex-Fresh
Food (YoY) (MAY)
Low -0.2% -0.3%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer
Price Index Ex Food,
Energy (YoY) (MAY)
Low -0.7% -0.7%
23:50
JPY Industrial
Production (MoM)
(APR P)
Low 0.6% 0.9%
23:50
JPY Industrial
Production (YoY) (APR
P)
Medium -3.4% -6.7%
Fri
May 31
JPY Bank of Japan
Deputy Governor
Nakaso Speaks in
Tokyo
Low
01:00
NZD ANZ Business
Confidence (MAY)
Low 32.3
13. 01:00
NZD ANZ Activity
Outlook (MAY)
Low 30.3
01:30
AUD Private Sector
Credit (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.3% 0.2%
01:30
AUD Private Sector
Credit (YoY) (APR)
Medium 3.0% 3.2%
01:35
CNY MNI May
Business Sentiment
Indicator
Low
03:00
NZD Money Supply M3
(YoY) (APR)
Low 7.0%
04:00
JPY Vehicle Production
(YoY) (APR)
Low -16.4%
05:00
JPY Housing Starts
(YoY) (APR)
Medium 4.1% 7.3%
05:00
JPY Annualized
Housing Starts (APR)
Medium 0.923M 0.904M
05:00
JPY Construction
Orders (YoY) (APR)
Low -3.4%
06:00
EUR German Retail
Sales (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.2% -0.3%
06:00
EUR German Retail
Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium 1.1% -2.8%
07:00
CHF KOF Swiss
Leading Indicator
(MAY)
Medium 1.07 1.02
08:00
EUR Italian
Unemployment Rate
s.a. (APR P)
Low 11.6% 11.5%
08:00
EUR Italian
Unemployment Rate
s.a. (1Q)
Low 11.6% 11.2%
08:30
GBP Net Consumer
Credit (APR)
Medium 0.4B 0.5B
08:30
GBP Net Lending Sec.
on Dwellings (APR)
Medium 0.5B 0.4B
08:30
GBP Mortgage
Approvals (APR)
Medium 54.6K 53.5K
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply
(MoM) (APR)
Low -0.9%
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply
(YoY) (APR)
Low 0.3%
08:30
GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M
Annualised (APR)
Low 3.3% 4.6%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index
Estimate (YoY) (MAY)
Medium 1.4% 1.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Unemployment Rate
(APR)
Medium 12.2% 12.1%
14. 09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index -
Core (YoY) (MAY A)
High 1.1% 1.0%
12:30
CAD Quarterly Gross
Domestic Product
Annualized (1Q)
High 2.3% 0.6%
12:30
CAD Gross Domestic
Product (MoM) (MAR)
(MAR)
Medium 0.1% 0.3%
12:30
CAD Gross Domestic
Product (YoY) (MAR)
(MAR)
High 1.5% 1.7%
12:30
USD Personal Income
(APR)
Medium 0.1% 0.2%
12:30
USD Personal
Spending (APR)
Medium 0.0% 0.2%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Deflator
(MoM) (APR)
Low -0.2% -0.1%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Deflator
(YoY) (APR)
Low 0.8% 1.0%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Core
(MoM) (APR)
Low 0.1% 0.0%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Core
(YoY) (APR)
Medium 1.0% 1.1%
12:45
USD Fed's Pianalto
Speaks on Financial
Stability in Washington
Low
13:00
USD NAPM-Milwaukee
(MAY)
Low 49.0 48.4
13:45
USD Chicago
Purchasing Manager
(MAY)
Low 50.0 49.0
13:55
USD U. of Michigan
Confidence (MAY F)
Medium 83.7 83.7
14:00
USD Revisions to the
Wholesale Sales and
Inventories Report
Low
14:00
USD Revisions of
Retail Sales Released
Low
15:00
USD Fed's Liang
Speaks on Financial
Stability in Washington
Low
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