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Climate Change & Indian Monsoon  : Some Key Issues B. N. Goswami (goswami@tropmet.res.in) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
What is the Indian Summer Monsoon? A manifestation of seasonal northward migration of the Rain Band or Tropical Convergence Zone (TCZ )
 
Long term mean  JJA precipitation and  DJF precipitation   Monsoon ? Wet- summer Dry - winter
Characteristic features of summer monsoon circulation Low level, cross-equatorial flow, south-westerlies, westerly jet in Arabian sea Upper level easterlies, Monsoon Easterly Jet Deep Baroclinic vertical structure
All India Rainfall (AIR) JJAS Mean Interannual Variability AIR Mean : 86 cm AIR S.D. : 8.6 cm No increasing trend in Monsoon rainfall past 100 yrs.
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period  Rate Years   /decade IPCC 150  0.045  0.012 100  0.074  0.018 50  0.128  0.026 25  0.177  0.052 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999, 1990 ,2000
Trend in temp. is similar to global temp. trend. Much faster during past 50 years Annual mean Temp. over India 1875-2004
Indian Ocean temperature also shows warming trend
All India Rainfall (AIR) Interannual Variability No increasing trend in Monsoon rainfall past 100 yrs.
Questions :  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Blue  : 1950-1970 Red  : 1980-2000
Time series of count over CI Low & Moderate events Heavy events (>10cm) V. Heavy events (>15cm) Goswami et al. 2006, Science, 314, 1442
[object Object],Time series of av. Intensity of four largest events in a year
Why no trend in the seasonal mean ?
Global Warming makes Indian Monsoon Weather Less Predictable! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Error doubling Time  for the last two quarters  (1953-1978 and 1979-2004)  (18N-27N, 73E -85E) Long Time series ----combined time series of all the grid points in the 3° × 4° boxes.  That is, for each quarter we used a time series of length  57408 ,[object Object],[object Object]
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Questions : On Projections of Monsoon ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Future Scenarios for Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Temperature over South Asia under A2 Scenario (High Emissions) based on IPCC AR4 Simulations of AOGCMs (Anomalies relative to current period)   Model spread-a rough measure of uncertainty
South Asia Kripalani et al. 2007, Theor. Appl. Clmatol.
South Asia Kripalani et al. 2007, Theor. Appl. Clmatol.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Rignot et al. GRL, 2008
Climate on a threshold! Monsoon may tip to a persistent drought phase! Back Melting of Greenland Ice due to Global Warming Persistent Weak Monsoon Fresh water addition to North Atlantic Ocean Weakening of Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Weak north-south Atmos. Temp. Gradient over Indian Longitudes
Mean=5.2 mm/day S.D.  =14.7% mean LTA monsoon rainfall (JJAS) decreases by 20%!
[object Object],[object Object]
Projections of monsoon under climate change scenarios by current climate models are not reliable! Because current climate models are unable to simulate the present mean monsoon climate and its variability with fidelity
Wavenumber-frequency spectra of twice daily OLR in tropics showing Kelvin, Rossby and MRG waves (Wheeler and Kiladis, JAS,1999, vol.56,374pp)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lin et al. 2006, J. Climate
NICAM
Obs.   (Takayabu et al. 1999) NICAM (7-km) Matsuno (AMS, 2007)
Cloud distribution simulated by ECMWF forecast model on a given day
Tools required for reliable answer to Regional Climate Change Questions:  Atmosphere GCM With Stratospheric Chemistry, Aerosol , Dynamic vegetation, resolve trop. Meososcale clouds Ocean GCM With biogeochemistry model Carbon Cycle Model
What kind of resolution may be required?  Ocean GCM 1/3  x 1 O  near equator and 1 O  x1 O  outside 10 O 50 levels in vertical Carbon Cycle Model ,[object Object],[object Object],Atmosphere GCM 10 km global  50 levels in vertical
What are crucial requirements? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In India, Where do we stand today? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Strategy at CCCR, IITM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank You !
Unprecedented fast Variations in recent past
 
Basic energy spectrum (thick curve) and error energy spectrum (thin curves) Lorenz  1969 Predictability   limit in any scale is the  time required for the error to propagate “upscale” from very, very small initial scale to that scale and become as large as the variance in that scale.
South Asia Kripalani et al. 2007, Theor. Appl. Clmatol.
Space-time spectra of tropical waves from anti-symmetric component of precipitation simulated by some AR4 models
 

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Goswami Climate Change And Indian Monsoon Cse Workshop

  • 1. Climate Change & Indian Monsoon : Some Key Issues B. N. Goswami (goswami@tropmet.res.in) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
  • 2. What is the Indian Summer Monsoon? A manifestation of seasonal northward migration of the Rain Band or Tropical Convergence Zone (TCZ )
  • 3.  
  • 4. Long term mean JJA precipitation and DJF precipitation Monsoon ? Wet- summer Dry - winter
  • 5. Characteristic features of summer monsoon circulation Low level, cross-equatorial flow, south-westerlies, westerly jet in Arabian sea Upper level easterlies, Monsoon Easterly Jet Deep Baroclinic vertical structure
  • 6. All India Rainfall (AIR) JJAS Mean Interannual Variability AIR Mean : 86 cm AIR S.D. : 8.6 cm No increasing trend in Monsoon rainfall past 100 yrs.
  • 7. Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years  /decade IPCC 150 0.045  0.012 100 0.074  0.018 50 0.128  0.026 25 0.177  0.052 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999, 1990 ,2000
  • 8. Trend in temp. is similar to global temp. trend. Much faster during past 50 years Annual mean Temp. over India 1875-2004
  • 9. Indian Ocean temperature also shows warming trend
  • 10. All India Rainfall (AIR) Interannual Variability No increasing trend in Monsoon rainfall past 100 yrs.
  • 11.
  • 12. Blue : 1950-1970 Red : 1980-2000
  • 13. Time series of count over CI Low & Moderate events Heavy events (>10cm) V. Heavy events (>15cm) Goswami et al. 2006, Science, 314, 1442
  • 14.
  • 15. Why no trend in the seasonal mean ?
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. Future Scenarios for Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Temperature over South Asia under A2 Scenario (High Emissions) based on IPCC AR4 Simulations of AOGCMs (Anomalies relative to current period) Model spread-a rough measure of uncertainty
  • 23. South Asia Kripalani et al. 2007, Theor. Appl. Clmatol.
  • 24. South Asia Kripalani et al. 2007, Theor. Appl. Clmatol.
  • 25.
  • 26.  
  • 27. Rignot et al. GRL, 2008
  • 28. Climate on a threshold! Monsoon may tip to a persistent drought phase! Back Melting of Greenland Ice due to Global Warming Persistent Weak Monsoon Fresh water addition to North Atlantic Ocean Weakening of Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Weak north-south Atmos. Temp. Gradient over Indian Longitudes
  • 29. Mean=5.2 mm/day S.D. =14.7% mean LTA monsoon rainfall (JJAS) decreases by 20%!
  • 30.
  • 31. Projections of monsoon under climate change scenarios by current climate models are not reliable! Because current climate models are unable to simulate the present mean monsoon climate and its variability with fidelity
  • 32. Wavenumber-frequency spectra of twice daily OLR in tropics showing Kelvin, Rossby and MRG waves (Wheeler and Kiladis, JAS,1999, vol.56,374pp)
  • 33.
  • 34. Lin et al. 2006, J. Climate
  • 35. NICAM
  • 36. Obs.   (Takayabu et al. 1999) NICAM (7-km) Matsuno (AMS, 2007)
  • 37. Cloud distribution simulated by ECMWF forecast model on a given day
  • 38. Tools required for reliable answer to Regional Climate Change Questions: Atmosphere GCM With Stratospheric Chemistry, Aerosol , Dynamic vegetation, resolve trop. Meososcale clouds Ocean GCM With biogeochemistry model Carbon Cycle Model
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 45.  
  • 46. Basic energy spectrum (thick curve) and error energy spectrum (thin curves) Lorenz 1969 Predictability limit in any scale is the time required for the error to propagate “upscale” from very, very small initial scale to that scale and become as large as the variance in that scale.
  • 47. South Asia Kripalani et al. 2007, Theor. Appl. Clmatol.
  • 48. Space-time spectra of tropical waves from anti-symmetric component of precipitation simulated by some AR4 models
  • 49.