Technology has already changed the way we live but still has the potential to do so much more. In emerging markets, if applied properly, it can be a driving force for good. It also provides immense opportunities for the bottom lines of technology companies.
2. “It can be said that there are four basic and primary
things that the mass of people in a society wish for:
to live in a safe environment, to be able to work
and provide for themselves, to have access to good
public health, and to have sound educational
opportunities for their children.”
-- Nelson Mandela --
10. 2014
China
India
USA
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Russian Federation
Japan
Mexico
100 million +
Population
Source: Wor ld Populat ion 2012, Depar tment of Economic & Social Af fai rs Populat ion Division, UN
11. 2050
India
China
Nigeria
USA
Indonesia
Pakistan
Brazil
Bangladesh
Ethiopia
Philippines
Mexico
DRC
Tanzania
Egypt
Russian Federation
Japan
Uganda
Vietnam
Iran
12. 2100
India
China
Nigeria
US
Indonesia
Tanzania
Pakistan
DRC
Ethiopia
Uganda
Niger
Brazil
Philippines
Bangladesh
Kenya
Mexico
Egypt
Zambia
Sudan
Mozambique
Iraq
Madagascar
Russian
Federation
Mali
13. Growth in Population aged 10-24, 1950-2060
Population aged 10-24 (millions)
Source: Adolescent & Youth Demographics, unfpa.org
14. GDP Growth 2014
North America 2.5%
Latin America 3.3%
Western Europe 1.1% Eastern Europe 3.0%
Middle East &
North Africa
4.0%
Asia 5.7%
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.2%
Japan 1.7%
Source: ht tp: / /www.economist .com/news/21589184- top-growers
15. Mobile Subscriber Growth Rate 2014-2017
Source: Sub-Saharan Af r ica Mobi le Economy 2013, GSMA | Wor ldword Mobi le Phone Users, stat ista.com
21. The Private Sector
payments, organizing and paying staff,
and transporting goods
22. Opportunities in Emerging Economies
Get to know your next customer
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Don’t only repurpose existing technologies
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Power and cost more important than sophistication
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Build platforms for development
talk opportunities for technology in emerging markets.
Technology has already changed the way we live but still has the potential to do so much more. It applied properly, it can be a driving force for good.
can save lives or make positive social change BUT also the immense opportunities for your bottom lines in emerging markets.
I’d like to start with a quote from Nelson Mandela:
We all want to live in a safe environment and have the freedom to communicate and come and go as we please
We all want the dignity associated with being able to work and provide for our families
We all want to be able to stay healthy and get quality care when we get sick
And we all want to give a better life to our children.
While this quote is in itself is a truism whether you live in affluent Palo Alto or the slums of Nairobi, it is nonetheless important for us to remember when we think about developing technology products and services for here or for far away.
As I was growing up, I saw these 4 things to be true.
I was born in Japan but grew up around the world in Afghanistan, Myanmar, Switzerland, France and the UK. Meeting children my age in these countries taught me that we all want the same things but the circumstance of our birth largely dictated the access and opportunities I had versus opportunities that many of my peers would never have.
It’s not only that they didn’t go the same school as me, they often didn’t get to go to school at all. When they got sick, they didn’t get to see a doctor or take medicine to make them better.
They also had very little opportunity to speak out and say -
our teachers never show up!,
there are no medicines!
we have no running water
And have their voice heard….
My upbringing brought me to UNICEF.
I wanted to be able to make a difference for children. To give them the opportunities and access they needed to be safe, express themselves, to have the opportunity to get good healthcare and education, and provide for their families and give their children a better life.
If you grew up in the US, many of you know UNICEF by the orange Trick or Treat boxes.
In addition to trick or treating for UNICEF, we are also a global organization that works in over 190 countries and territories. Basically we are everywhere in blue. There are 9 countries we don’t work in which include Brunei, Monaco, and Singapore.
Our nearly 12,000 staff work at all levels - from heads of state down to rural and remote communities, delivering better health, education, protection, and emergency response on the ground.
We also have very large annual supply operation. Each year, we procure 1/3 of the world’s vaccines for children and respond to over 1,000 emergencies.
Another little know fact is that we are also the largest purchaser of pencils in the world.
Just over 7 years ago I was in a very remote part of Senegal for work. This village had no running water, no paved roads, and no electricity but there were some people who owned and were using cell phones. This fascinated me. What were they using them for? How were they charging them? What did this mean for UNICEF now that even in the most remote locations people suddenly had a two way communication device in their hands?
These questions changed everything for me.
The opportunity of using technology to help solve big societal problems led me to co-found and co-lead the UNICEF Innovation team.
My team brings technology and design practice to UNICEF’s work on the ground. Today we are an interdisciplinary team of 80 developers, designers, analysts and product managers based around the world from Afghanistan to Zambia. We have 14 Innovation Labs – represented by the the yellow and red triangles – each of which concentrate on solving challenges particular to that country.
For example:
In Zambia our lab there works on using technology to prevent, test and treat for HIV. They have this focus because over 1 million people there live with HIV and the country has an HIV prevalence rate of over 12%.
Our lab in Kosovo focuses on youth entrepreneurship because there are so little employment opportunities for young people in that country
And our lab in Burundi focuses on power solutions because less than 5% of the country is connected to the electrical grid and people spend up to 25% of their income to keep their phones electrically charged.
We work with and train local developers around the world, putting the tools directly in their hands. They then lead our technology efforts in that country. We found that anything we build in NY or SF tends to fail big time when you try and take it to the field. Things have a much better chance of succeeding if developed closer to the end market.
U-Report is a concrete example of one of the projects that my team work. U-Report is a mobile system to hear from young people. It is currently running in 9 countries with another 40 launching in the next year.
In Uganda, there are over 260,000 U-Reporters all around the country. Each week an SMS based poll question is sent out to young people on an issue that matters in their lives.
Their responses are collected and shared with the government. There is also a weekly TV and radio show about them. In Uganda, every member of parliament is on U-Report.
We have seen U-Report influence policy decisions and legislation. It’s a direct connection from young people to their government.
The visualization here is based on over 20,000 responses from U-reporters in Uganda on the topic of social entrepreneurship. Each flashing dot represents an incoming text message received in a matter of hours.
The question this particular week was: U-reporter! If you meet a top businessperson, what would u need to convince him/her that ur the best possible employee s/he can get?
This answers to this question and the subsequent dialogue around it goes into improving the education system and legislation around the labor market.
With this background on UNICEF, let’s answer this question: What do social good projects have to do with your businesses which build the technologies of the future, dominate markets, and make enough money to keep doing more and better?
I would argue that it’s the future of your business.
intricately woven into most aspects of our lives.
Our identity - Who we are, what we buy, what others want us to buy, the security and data around that drives a lot of the money in this space. It can also deliver tremendous social value.
1 in 3 children around the world don’t have an official identity? health and education - further on down the line - vote, land
Our money - core of the global economy yet for most people the formal banking system is out of reach, making it difficult for them to change their circumstances for the better.
The operators, the banks, the credit card companies 43% of Kenya’s GDP flows through the mobile money system called M-Pesa. Safaricom and Vodacom – the network operators that runs M-Pesa – take 0.16 – 66% cut of each transaction. SURGE
How we get around – moving people and goods primed for tech revolution. Here we see this in driverless cars and shared rides. In emerging markets, I’d say that it’s even more key. If you’re a farmer or young woman
Our self –fitness and a little bit of health. I’m excited about when wearables can be used to diagnose and treat disease. Liberia - 300 doctors for 3.5 million people.
While many of these areas might not seem immediately applicable to UNICEF, we are focusing on them because they can unlock opportunities for people to make their lives better and lift themselves out of poverty.
Let’s take a look at some demographics which make a pretty compelling case for why the technology industry should focus on emerging economies.
Over the next 30 odd years, almost all of the additional people will live in emerging economies – notably Asia and Africa. Africa is set to grow the most rapidly
The population of what we call developed economies – which make up your current user base – is expected to change minimally.
In the US, the population would decline were it not for the net increase due to migration from emerging economies to the US.
These are the countries with populations of over 100 million people today
By 2050 9 countries in Asia and Africa will join those ranks
And by the end of this century, an additional 8 mainly in Africa will join those ranks
early technology adopters and purchasing power – adolescents and young people.
Today, 2 of the 7 billion people on the planet are below the age of 25.
90 percent of these people live in emerging economies.
For example, there are more than 235 million youth in India and 225 million in China
Africa is expected to rise from 18% today to 28% by 2040, while the shares of all other regions will decline.
Median age: In Germany it’s 46, In China it’s 36. In Nigeria it’s 18. Nigeria’s population is expected to soar from 200m today to 900 million by 2100.
4 in 10 of the world’s population will be African by the end of this century.
Demographics aren’t really that important unless you also talk about purchasing power and where economies are growing and shrinking.
Asia - especially the big population countries of India, China, Indonesia, the Philippines and in LAC - Brazil are growing and primed for consumer spending.
More and more of the middle class shift to Asia. By 2030, 66% of the world’s middle class
For the future, AFRICA (b/c growth potential in a largely undeveloped market).
After Asia, Africa is the fastest growing economy
By 2020, more than ½ of African households are projected to have discretionary income
Most of the growth is in the consumer product space, especially in the technology sector.
According to a McKinsey study from last year, more than 50% of urban Africans said they had accessed the internet in the past month. These are very similar to figures from urban Brazil or China.
For the technology sector, emerging economies are particularly important
The Asia-Pacific region - the world’s largest mobile region - dominates the global mobile industry in terms of both unique subscribers and connections. It has almost half of the world’s unique subscribers today at 1.7B. By 2017 that should rise to 1.9B. Here, ⅓ of the population still remains without a mobile subscription.
The Sub-Saharan African region - the fastest growing mobile region had 253 million unique subscribers in 2013. Here it is forecasted that unique subscribers will grow by 43% by 2017 to reach 346 million in 2017. Roughly ⅔ of the population still remain without a mobile subscription. Mobile services are already available to a larger portion of the population than many other basic services, including electricity, sanitation and financial services.
Both regions will need to address the challenges of connecting the more rural and poorer segments of the population and make the transition to 3G, 4G and mobile broadband.
Beyond building relevant solutions for people’s lives, there are some major challenges that really limit technology uptake.
Cost
Data
Power
In Sub-Saharan Africa, people spend on average a larger proportion of their income on communication technology.
You can imagine that the new iphone 6 is pretty much completely irrelevant in this market.
I want a product that’s inexpensive, and serves my needs.
Buying a piece of hardware is a BIG one time investment that I’ve had to save up for.
I’ve often been told to think about technology as a way to make money, save money, and save time
If I’m a housekeeper, I can get new cleaning jobs if potential clients can call me.
If I’m a fisherman I know where to go sell my fish for the best price. I can now access arbitrage, market or trade opportunities I would have otherwise missed out on.
If I’m a farmer who wants to sell my maize, I pay for a phone call because its cheaper than making the journey to the nearest town to figure out how much demand and what the going price of maize is.
Taking a look at the countries in black, here 89% of people are still using a 2G connection, only 7% are using a smartphone, and 3% have a monthly plan.
There is obviously the cost of the hardware purchase but that’s a one time investment that most people will be able to afford as prices drop.
The real problem is data. Most apps or technology services are designed to constantly be sucking data. For people who buy things in little chunks this is not a good solution.
If you look at a brand that’s ubiquitous – let’s take Unilever. They sell their products in small single dose packets. Even if it’s cheaper to buy in a larger quantity, the poorest will only buy a single packet of washing powder because it’s all they can afford on that day. The same goes for technology.
Much of Sub-Saharan Africa, and many rural parts of Asia where communities don’t have access to electricity.
People cook their food and light their houses using solid fuels – wood, charcoal, coal and dung. This causes terrible environmental damage, means that people, usually women spend hours and hours each day gathering or spending money to find fuel, and causes 1.5 million deaths each year from respiratory infections.
Many of these people still own phones though. As you can see here – this is the business of a local entrepreneur who has set up businesses to charge phones.
In Burundi, people will spend up to 25% of their income to keep their phone electrically charged.
Technology that is power hungry will have a very hard time taking off here.
DIESEL
The vast majority of technology growth and subsequent spending in emerging markets will happen in the consumer space but we should not discount the public sector which is increasingly looking to technology to help them save time and money. One advantage that emerging markets have over developed ones is that there are no legacy technology systems to replace.
A good example of this would be in the area of mobile health. 90%. One of UNICEF’s projects in Zambia is a mobile system that alerts rural clinics by SMS when their patients lab results are ready. The clinics can then send in their code to retrieve these results and then text their patients that their results are ready to come pick up.
In the old system, these results would have to travel from the capital city Lusaka by truck, then car, then motorbike back to clinics all around the country.
Sim Prints and Literacy Bridge
Large multinationals such as coca-cola are also focusing on technology. Beyond being able to buy a coke with your mobile phone, the private sector can pay their staff using mobile money. It saves on the cost and the risk of moving cash around and cuts out a lot of corruption.
To recap – the opportunities in emerging economies while tremendous are different. Sometimes they are better
Having worked in these markets over the past 7 years,
Work with end user
Things built here usually fail
Design within existing ecosystem.
These markets are growing, lucrative, and deserve their own products and services. These products need to solve the key challenges that these markets face
We started the day looking at the progression of technology and the cutting edge with Simon. Excited about mbed OS.
These markets need a diversity of technologies for specific applications. They also need a diversity of people working on them. The ARM ecosystem is uniquely positioned to deliver on this.
I’ve talked about what UNICEF, your businesses are going
I’d like to end on how your businesses can do good and do good business.
This means making things that are not just nice to have but that people need to have – this can be product, process or process
For me this means that the corporate agenda and social agenda, and the way we measure those things are one and the same
Whether with UNICEF or another org, what is needed is unconventional partnerships with new people and new conversations that move the needle on the business and the social side.