1. Photo by Erwin Palacios (CI Colombia) © The Economist
1

2. To explicitly quantify the linkages between the natural ecosystem services
that affect – and are affected by – food security and nutritional health for
the rural poor at the forest-agricultural interface
Photo by Erwin Palacios (CI Colombia)

4. United Kingdom:
 University of Southampton (PI Poppy)
 University of Dundee (Dawson)
United States of America:
 Conservation International (Co-PI Honzak)
Spain:
 Basque Centre for Climate Change (Co-PI Villa)
Colombia:
 International Centre for Tropical Agriculture – CIAT
(Co-PI Jarvis)
 Research centres, universities and NGOs
Malawi:
 Chancellor College (Co-PI Chiotha)
 LEAD Southern and Eastern Africa plus Ministry of
Forestry, Forest Research Institute of Malawi
 WorldFish Centre - Malawi
 Rhodes University South Africa

5. • Rural Poverty (national poverty line): 50% in Colombia, 2010; 54% in Malawi, 2004.
• Child malnutrition (height for age): 13 % in Colombia and 48% in Malawi, 2010.
• Income share for top 10%: 44% in Colombia, 2010 and 33% in Malawi, 2004.

6. Lower Caquetá
Upper Caquetá
High forest cover
Low deforestation
Zomba Plateau
High forest cover
High deforestation
Low forest cover
Low deforestation
Natural land use transition Forest replenishment period

7. The framework integrates the modelling tools and the DP-SIR approach to evaluate
drivers, pressures and impact on ES over multiple spatial and temporal scales.
Long-Term
Medium-Term
Short-Term
Drivers / Pressures State Impacts
Food Security and Health Ecosystem Services Crises and Tipping Points
Themes 1 and 2 Themes 1 and 2 Theme 2
ES modelling
Environmental Impacts
FeedMe
ARIES Food Security
Ecosystem service flows to
beneficiaries
Socioeconomic Health Impact
surveys and PRA
Economic
Economic Impacts
modelling
Policies relating to e.g.
economics, sector- Setting of targets BowTie: risk management /
specific, environmental / priorities mitigation
Theme 3 Theme 3
Response
Local
Regional
National

8. Theme 1
Drivers, pressures and linkages between food security,
nutritional health and ES
Photo by Malcolm Hudson (U. of Southampton)

12.  Household surveys and food diaries.
 Three or more waves of measurements per site.
 Sampling in Malawi, possibility of a census in Colombia.
 Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing.
Poverty Food Security
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

13. Theme 2
Crises and tipping points: Past, present and future
interactions between food insecurity and ES at the forest-
agricultural interface.
http://blogs.reuters.com/photo
graphers-blog/2010/08/12/an-
aerial-view-of-sumatra-island/
Photo by Simon Willcock (U. of Southampton)

14. • 3 key interactions: Water, Forest & People
WATER
PEOPLE FOREST

15.  A rapid spatial assessment tool for ecosystem services and
their values; not a single model but an artificial intelligence
assisted system that customizes models to user goals.
 Demonstrates a mapping process for ecosystem service
provision, use, sink and flow while most ES assessments only
look at provision.
 Probabilistic, Bayesian models inform decision-makers about
the likelihood of possible scenarios; users can explore effects
of policy changes and external events on estimates of
uncertainty.

17. Theme 3
The science-policy interface: How can we manage ES to reduce
food insecurity and increase nutritional health?
•Minimising risk of future environmental change
•Influencing policy to better manage
ES conflicts, trade-offs and synergies to sustain food security
and health?
Photo by Simon Willcock (U. of Southampton)

18. Hazard – Not enough Firewood
Ecosystem – Natural Forest
Threat – Over collection
Control – Rules preventing
over-harvesting
Good/Service – Firewood
Consequence – Increased
Food Security
Consequence
–
Decreased
Control – Aid/Charcoal provision
Food Security

20. Map different factors affecting ES
Better resource Identify the factors with highest negative impact on ES (and which are more
management relevant for food security and nutritional health)
Identify critical changes and tipping points that can accelerate the
degradation of key ecosystems (that can be addressed through timely policy
interventions)
Report on climate change impacts on ES provision, food security and
nutritional health
Food security Report on current and future impact of land use change on sustainable
and nutritional provision of ES and food security
health
Provide input for policies that can counterbalance the most urgent needs of
the population exerting pressure on ES

22.  The project is working in collaboration with key governmental institutions,
such as the Ministry of Forestry and the Ministry for Local Government and
Rural Development in Malawi.
 The project has set up National Steering Committees in Colombia and
Malawi with high-profile scientific researchers.
 Local partners have access to relevant policy-making instances and public-
agenda setters:
• Malawi TV documentary discussed the potential contribution of the
ASSETS project to current environmental issues affecting Malawi.
• Caqueta’s Regional Government Development Plan (2012-2015) states
that the project’s “scientific contributions are expected to serve as input
for the formulation of better policies for intervention, prioritization of
actions and management of regional and local authorities”.

23. This presentation was produced by ASSETS (NE-J002267-1), funded with support from the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation
Programme (ESPA). The ESPA programme is funded by the Department for International Development (DFID), the Economic and
Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as part of the UK’s Living with Environmental
23
Change Programme (LWEC). The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the funders,
the ESPA Programme, the ESPA Directorate, or LWEC.