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Book Synthesis: Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia

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Book Synthesis: Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia

  1. 1. Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges Paul Dorosh, Shahidur Rashid and Alemayehu Seyoum TaffesseImproved Evidence Towards Better Food and Agricultural Policies in EthiopiaNovember 02, 2012Hilton Hotel, Addis Ababa 1
  2. 2. Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges Thank you!H.E. Ato Newai Gebre-ab, Chief Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister of Ethiopiaand Director of the Ethiopian Development Research InstituteWzo. Samia Zekaria, Director General, Central Statistics AgencyDonors:Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)Department for International Development (DfID)United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Development Cooperation of IrelandAgricultural Transformation Agency (ATA)Researchers: Bart Minten, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Mehrab Malek, HashimAhmed, Eleni Gabre-MadhinNumerous Others… (see the acknowledgements) 3
  3. 3. Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges1. Introduction Paul Dorosh and Shahidur RashidPart I: Overview and Analysis of Ethiopia’s Food Economy2. Ethiopian Agriculture: A Dynamic Geographic Perspective Jordan Chamberlin and Emily Schmidt3. Crop Production in Ethiopia: Regional Patterns and Trends Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Paul Dorosh, and Sinafikeh Asrat Gemessa4. Seed, Fertilizer, and Agricultural Extension in Ethiopia David J. Spielman, Dawit Kelemework Mekonnen, and Dawit Alemu 4
  4. 4. Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy ChallengesPart I: Overview and Analysis of Ethiopia’s Food Economy (cont.)5. Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets Shahidur Rashid and Asfaw Negassa6. Livestock Production and Marketing Asfaw Negassa, Shahidur Rashid, Berhanu Gebremedhin, and Adam Kennedy7. Patterns in Foodgrain Consumption and Calorie Intake Guush Berhane, Linden McBride, Kirbrom Tafere Hirfrfot, and Seneshaw Tamiru 5
  5. 5. Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy ChallengesPart II: Major Agricultural and Food Policy Interventions in Ethiopia8. Implications of Accelerated Agricultural Growth for Household Incomes and Poverty in Ethiopia: A General Equilibrium Analysis Paul Dorosh and James Thurlow9. Disaster Response and Emergency Risk Management John Graham, Shahidur Rashid, and Mehrab Malek10. Targeting Food Security Interventions in Ethiopia: The Productive Safety Net Programme Sarah Coll-Black, Daniel O. Gilligan, John Hoddinott, Neha Kumar, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, and William Wiseman11. The Evolving Role of Agriculture in Ethiopia’s Economic Development Paul Dorosh 6
  6. 6. Ethiopian Agriculture: A Dynamic Geographic PerspectiveFigure 2.4. Map of woreda domain assignments, 2007Source: Author’s calculation 7
  7. 7. Ethiopian Agriculture:A Dynamic Geographic Perspective 8
  8. 8. Road Infrastructure and Urbanization Travel Time 1984 9
  9. 9. Road Infrastructure and Urbanization Travel Time 2007 11
  10. 10. Ethiopian Agriculture:A Dynamic Geographic Perspective 12
  11. 11. Ethiopia: Alternative Urbanization Estimates 14 12 10 (millions) 8 6 4 2 0 1984 1994 2007 Agglomeration Index Official CSA 13
  12. 12. Crop Production in Ethiopia:Regional Patterns and Trends 15
  13. 13. Crop Production in Ethiopia:Regional Patterns and Trends 16
  14. 14. Crop Production in Ethiopia:Regional Patterns and Trends 17
  15. 15. Seed, Fertilizer andAgricultural Extension in Ethiopia 19
  16. 16. Seed, Fertilizer andAgricultural Extension in Ethiopia 20
  17. 17. Seed, Fertilizer andAgricultural Extension in Ethiopia 21
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  19. 19. Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets (Policies)Policy Regimes Major Policy Key Observations Objective(s) Imperial Regime Support and promote the Limited interventions and were not (1960-74) interests of few landlords effective and urban consumers Socialist Regime Complete socialization of Heavy government intervention (1975-1990) production and which depressed the development marketing of private grain trade Liberalization and Price stabilization, Substantial progresses have beenrapid growth ( 1991- promote private sector made, but challenges remains with 2010) grain trade information, risk management, and making policies transparent 24
  20. 20. Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets (Policies) 1961–74 1975–80 1980–90 1991-2000 2001–08Indicators Imperial Transition State Liberalization Rapid Growth Regime period controlProduction (000 MT)[i] 4,641 4,527 5,601 7,056 10,672Marketed as % of Production 25% [ii] 11%[iii] 19% [iv] 25%[v] 28.10%[vi]Public Market Share (%) 10%[vii] 57% [viii] 40%[ix] 4% 1.87%Marketed (000 tons) 1,160 498 1,064 1,764 3,000Public sector (000 tons) 116 286 426 71 56.0 [x]Population (mns) 28.3 35.6 42.9 57.6 77.4Marketed (kgs/capita) 41 14.2 24.8 30.6 38.8 Farms to Compulsory Liberalized Collapse of Liberalization; landlords; quota for all market;Source of Market Supplies markets after increasing tribute; market private trade land reform trade private actors dominates 25
  21. 21. Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets (Policies) 1961–74 1975–80 1980–90 1991-2000 2001–08 Indicators Imperial Transition State Liberalizatio Rapid Regime period control n Growth% of farms holding less 98.7 87 80than two hectare of land[xi]% of lands owned byholders with less than two 94.7 65 56hectares[xi]Government intervention only during Very limited -- Yes Yes& price stabilization the food crisis AMC AMC, EGTE, small Private EGTE, traders, declining limited traders;Key market actors sector coops, ECX, private private small farms, limited EGB processors, sector trade millers
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  23. 23. Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets (performance) • Performance of cereal markets – Price analyses (historical data) • Market integration • Seasonality • Price variability – Survey data analyses • Transactions costs • Trade margins Performance of cereal markets has improved significantly 28
  24. 24. Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets (performance)• Consider the following facts: – In 1985, price of kg of teff was 7.7 Birr in Gojjam BUT 15.7 Birr in Wello – In 1974, price of rice in the district of Rangpur in Bangladesh (a deficit area) was almost three times the prices in surplus and well developed districts• What is common in these two cases? – Both countries had famines: Ethiopia in 1984/5 and Bangladesh in 1974. – Hard hit famine areas lacked integration with the surplus and well developed regions. – In both countries there were restrictions on grain movements 29
  25. 25. Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets (performance)Author (s) Commo Geographic Method of Findings dities coverage & analysis time periodDadi, L., A. Negassa, Maize and Bako area of Price correlation Results indicate that private-sector marketing of maizeand S. Franzel. teff Western Shoa and analysis and teff is characterized by high risk and variable gross1992. Eastern Wollega margins. Interspatial arbitrage is serious flawed, (1985 -1989) correlations in prices range from weak to strongDercon, S. Teff Ethiopia Modified Liberalization in early 1990s had important effects on1995. (1987 – 1993) Ravallion’s method the long-run and short-run integration of markets. Teff markets were co- integrated with Addis Ababa marketGetnet, K., W. Teff Ethiopia Autoregressive Found long-run and short-run relationship betweenVerbeke, and J. (1996 – 2005) distributed lag producer prices and the wholesale price in majorViaene. model terminal market (Addis Ababa)2005.Negassa, A., and R. Maize and Ethiopia Extended parity Grain market reform in 1999 have improved spatialMyers. 2007. wheat (1996 – 2002) bounds model market efficiency in a few markets, worsened it in a few others, but generally to have had little effect on the spatial efficiency.Rashid, S. Maize, Ethiopia Common trend Most market locations, except Mekelle in the north2011. wheat, and (1996 – 2007) and Multivariate and Dire Dawa in the eastern part of the country, are teff co-integration integrated. Analyses further suggest that shocks to analyses maize markets have the most persistent effects on all major cereals. 30
  26. 26. Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets (performance) Absolute change since 2002 2008 2002 Costs and Margins Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median A. Transaction costs Total transaction cost(Birr/ton) 176.4 52.91 65.7 21.90 110.7 31.01 Handling 54.7 10.58 17.7 5.91 36.9 4.67 Sacking 56.4 24.29 21.0 6.94 35.4 17.34 Transport 37.0 6.88 9.9 3.28 27.2 3.59 Storage 1.8 0.05 0.7 0.22 1.1 0.17 Road stop 0.0 0.53 0.0 0.07 0.0 0.46 Brokers 15.9 4.76 1.3 1.09 14.6 3.67 Travel 1.4 0.53 0.7 0.22 0.8 0.31 Others 9.2 5.29 14.5 4.16 5.3 1.13 B. Trade Margins Price Difference(Birr/ton) 141 88.2 102.2 73.0 38.9 15.19 Gross margin rate (%) 7% 4% 4% 3% 3% 1% Net margin (Birr/Ton) 132.3 52.9 37.0 43.8 95.3 9.11 31
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  28. 28. Livestock Production and Marketing• Importance of livestock in Ethiopian economy • At the national level : • Livestock subsector accounted for 11% of GDP and 24 % of agricultural GDP during 1995/96 to 2005/06 • Annual export earning from livestock / livestock products averaged 13% of the national export earnings • If unofficial export is included, livestock’s share in total export earning would have been about 25%!! • At the household level: • Livestock subsector is important in the livelihood of all types of rural households in all agro-ecological zones • It plays an important role in coping with shocks, accumulating wealth, and as store of value in the absence of missing markets and institutions. • Potential future demand: • With economic growth and regional integration, demand is likely to grow 33
  29. 29. Livestock Production and Marketing45 15%4035 10%3025 5%20 0%1510 -5% 5 -10% 0 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-08 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2008 Cattle Sheep Goats Cattle Sheep Goats • Livestock production stagnated or experienced negative growth from 1970- 1999 • But has shown a strong growth in the 2000-2008 period 34
  30. 30. Livestock Production and Marketing Total production (in 000 tons) Productivity 2Categories Growth Growth 2000 2004 2008 rate1 (%) 2000 2004 2008 rate1 (%) Meat 393 488 572 4.57 Beef 294 336 380 2.90 108 108 109 0.02 Mutton 36 60 82 12.30 10 10 10 -0.02 Goat 26 44 65 13.31 9 8 9 0.06 Chicken 38 47 46 0.11 1 1 1 0.00 Milk 900 1,050 1,350 4.35 207 210 211 0.61 Notes: 1Growth rate calculated over 2000-2008 2 Productivity measures: meat (carcass weight): kg/head; and milk is kg/head/year Source: FAO: http://faostat.fao.org; both production and productivity are measured by the FAO • While total production has grown, productivity has been more or less stagnant 35
  31. 31. Livestock Production and Marketing4540353025201510 5 0 Cattle Sheep Goats 1999-00 2004-05 36
  32. 32. Livestock Production and Marketing Nominal prices (Birr /Ton) Real prices (2006 prices)* Feed types 2004 2008 2008 as % of 2004 2008 2008 as % 2004 of 2004Cottonseed 800 2200 275 1065 1334 125Noug cake 800 2300 288 1065 1395 131Wheat (grade-2) 600 1800 300 799 1092 137Wheat chaff (grade-2) 300 1400 467 399 849 213Bale hay (teff / grass) 300 1200 400 399 728 182 Source: Nominal numbers are from SPS-LMM surveys Note: *Deflated by December CPIs of the respective year with Dec 2006=100. 37
  33. 33. Livestock Production and Marketing• Preventing the death of these three species would have generated estimated additional value of: • US$1.4 billion if valued at 2008/9 export price • Of the total, cattle alone would have accounted for US$1.0 billion 38
  34. 34. Disaster Response and Emergency Risk Management Implications Date Region Affected Attributed Causes and Severity 1888-1892 Ethiopia Rinderpest affected cattle population, estimated 90 percent livestock lost. Estimated 2 million dead. 1957-1958 Tigray and Wollo Rain failure in 1957. Locusts and epidemic in 1958 1964-1966 Tigray and Wollo Undocumented; said to be worse than 1973-74 1971-1975 Ethiopia Sequence of rain failures. Estimated 1/4 million dead. Fifty percent livestock lost in Tigray and Wollo. 1978-1979 Southern Ethiopia Failure of Belg rains 1982 Northern Ethiopia Late Meher rains 1984-1985 Ethiopia Sequence of rain failures. Eight million affected. Estimated 1 million dead. Much livestock loss. 1987-1988 Ethiopia Drought of undocumented severity in peripheral regions 1990-1992 Northern, eastern, and Rain failure and regional conflicts. Estimated 4 million people southwestern Ethiopia suffering food shortage 1993-1994 Tigray, Wollo, Addis 4 million people requiring food assistance, including demobilized army and Somali refugees. New droughts. 1997-2000 Eritrea, northern Tigray Localized food shortages due to conflict 1999-2000 Food Security Crisis in Somali Rain failures and decline in prices of livestock, the main source of Region pastoralists’ income 2002-2003 Ethiopia Drought-induced crop shortages; 12.6 million people were affected 2008-9 Southern Ethiopia Localized drought; 6.4 million people were affectedSource: 1888-1892: Pankhurst 1964 1957-1994: Webb and von Braun 1994 1997-2009: Dorosh, Schmidt, and Taffesse 2010 39
  35. 35. Disaster Response and Emergency Risk Management Implications• Shocks / disasters still Number of deaths & affected people (in ‘000) large in magnitude, but: Drought Total number of Total number of • While disasters continue to affect millions of Ethiopians Year deaths people affected occasionally, they lead to far 1983 300 7,750 fewer deaths; • In 1973/74 famine, 300 thousand 1973 100 3,000 people out of 7.5 million affected people died. 1965 2 8,000 • By contrast, although 12.6 1987 0.4 7,000 million people were affected in 2002/03, there were no reported 1989 N/A 6,500 deaths due to the crisis 1999 N/A 4,900 • These are significant accomplishments; and the credit 2003 N/A 12,600 goes to having right kind of policies and institutions in place. 2005 N/A 2,600 2008 N/A 6,400 40
  36. 36. Disaster Response and Emergency Risk Management Implications• Food aid flow to the 16 country is declining, but: 14 • Food aid flow to Ethiopia has 12 declined considerably in 10 recent years 8 • However, food aid has played 6 significant roles in the years of droughts /other shocks. 4 • This was the case in 1999- 2 2000 and then again in 0 2002/03, when the country 1998 2005 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 was hit by severe droughts. Food Aid as % of production Aid as % of consumption 41
  37. 37. Patterns in Foodgrain Consumption and Calorie Intake• General• Food consumption patterns are diverse in Ethiopia • no dominant staple in the national diet; • location, culture, and incomes matter;• Some features • Teff is consumed much more frequently in urban areas • Enset, maize, and sorghum are predominantly rural • Afar, Somale, Harari, and SNNPR consume the lowest amounts of cereals.
  38. 38. Patterns in Foodgrain Consumption and Calorie Intake• Calories• Calorie consumption across Ethiopia is low;• A high percentage of calorie consumption is coming from cereals;• Per capita intake of calories varies: • across rural and urban areas; • across regions; • across agro-ecological area; • Across socioeconomic groups.
  39. 39. Patterns in Foodgrain Consumption and Calorie IntakeExpenditure Shares• Food expenditures’ share in total expenditures remains fairly high, but has been declining over time;• The proportion of income spent on (raw) cereals is high, and that of processed cereals and non-cereal food is low;Changes• Calorie consumption is growing in Ethiopia – 1995/96 – 2004/05• Case of TeffImplications• Inter-sectoral linkages
  40. 40. Patterns in Foodgrain Consumption and Calorie Intake 45
  41. 41. Patterns in Foodgrain Consumption and Calorie Intake 46
  42. 42. Patterns in Foodgrain Consumption and Calorie Intake 47
  43. 43. Targeting Food Security Interventions inEthiopia: The Productive Safety Net ProgrammeThe PSNP is targeted towards households that are both food insecureand poor, in terms of total household resources.PSNP-PW: • targeted the poor for participation, rather than food insecure households per se; • poverty is highly correlated with food insecurity - food insecure households were targeted as a consequence;Increasing community understanding of targeting criteria: • households’ identification of poverty-related factors as a reason why households are selected for public works improved; • growing understanding that the elderly and disabled are the intended recipients of direct support; • family or friendship connections were not reported as major factors affecting a household’s likelihood to receive PW or DS 48
  44. 44. Targeting Food Security Interventions inEthiopia: The Productive Safety Net Programme • the PSNP is well-targeted: • progressive; • better targeted than the average global safety net program; • better targeted than any of the African safety net programs reported in Coady, Grosh and Hoddinott (2004). • These findings suggest that: • the PSNP has been able to target resources to the poorest households in rural areas using a combination of geographic and community-based targeting. • the need for continuous capacity building and follow-up from higher level implementers. 49
  45. 45. Implications of Accelerated Agricultural Growthfor Household Incomes and Poverty in Ethiopia: A General Equilibrium AnalysisEDRI Social Accounting Matrix 2004/05 • Constructed as part of a project with the University of Sussex (w/support of IFPRI-ESSP2) • 69 production sectors (24 agricultural, 14 agricultural processing, 20 other industry, 11 services) • Regional SAM based on the “3 Ethiopias” • Rainfall sufficient, drought prone, pastoralist • Rainfall sufficient AEZ disaggregated to humid lowlands, enset-based systems, and other (highland) rainfall sufficient areas • Poor and non-poor groups in rural and urban areas
  46. 46. Agro-ecological Zones “Three” Ethiopias
  47. 47. Baseline Scenario Assumptions• Agriculture • Land cultivated for each crop follows medium-term trends: total land cultivated increases 2.6% per year, 2009-2015 • Land growth varies across region (1.2% per year in rainfall sufficient areas, 3.2% per year in drought-prone areas, 3.7% per year in pastoralist areas) • Crop yield increases account for one-third of the crop production growth • Overall agricultural GDP growth: 3.8%/year • Note: population growth rate is 3.0 percent/year• Non-agricultural output growth based on historical medium-term trends: • Manufacturing: 8.1% per year • Services: 8.1% per year
  48. 48. Ethiopia:Targeting yield/productivity increases 2.50 Accelerated yield growth target, 2015 2.00 Expected yields under baseline scenario, 2015Crop yield (mt/ha) 1.50 Current yields, 2005 1.00 0.50 0.00 Maize Chat Wheat Tobacco Sorghum Flowers Cotton Teff Oilseeds Coffee Barley
  49. 49. SimulatedAgricultural Growth Outcomes
  50. 50. Simulated Poverty Outcomes
  51. 51. Model Conclusions• The simulations indicate that agricultural growth does have significant poverty-reducing effects. – This indicates that the overall Agriculture Development-Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy, as well as the basic CAADP and AGP programs, are sound approaches• Complementary non-agricultural growth (in addition to agricultural growth linkages) can have a marginal impact on poverty equal in size to that of accelerated agricultural growth
  52. 52. The Evolving Role of Agriculture in Ethiopia’s Economic Development• Ethiopia is changing at an accelerating pace • Road networks, telecommunications, electricity generation, urbanization• Large-scale public investments in agriculture in 1990s and 2000s • Strong evidence that agricultural production has increased (independent ERHS surveys; stable real prices in context of increased incomes, population)• Substantial economic growth and reductions in malnutrition• To a large extent, the evidence suggests that Agriculture Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) adopted in the late 1990s succeeded 57
  53. 53. The Evolving Role of Agriculture in Ethiopia’s Economic Development• However, there are increasing concerns about reliance on agriculture as a major source of growth in the future • Land and water constraints in the highlands and drought- prone areas • Without continued growth in non-agricultural sectors, there may be insufficient demand for any increased supply of agricultural products • Urbanization and the normal structural shift in production from agriculture to industry and services will require public and private investments in non-agricultural capital 58
  54. 54. Major Challenges for Agricultural and Food Policy• Sustaining Growth in Crop and Livestock Production • Public and private Investments in productivity-increasing technologies are needed • Problems in seed multiplication and distribution must be overcome • Chemical fertilizer use must increase• Increasing Market Efficiency • Large increase in domestic demand for marketed staple foods • Promote competition in markets, especially for imported products (e.g. fertilizer) and allow private sector to compete with cooperatives• Providing Effective Safety Nets • PSNP has proven successful in targeting the poor with cash and food transfers; complementary programs to build household assets and sustainable livelihoods are essential • Strengthen a decentralized response system to emergencies to improve timeliness of response to serious hunger threats • Allow private sector imports to supplement domestic supplies in times of shortage 59
  55. 55. Major Challenges for Agricultural and Food Policy• Maintaining Macroeconomic Incentives and Stability • Rapid overall domestic inflation from 2007 to 2009 reduced food security, especially for urban households with fixed or slowly adjusting salaries • Appreciation of the real exchange rate worsened incentives for production of tradable goods (including export crops) • Incentives were largely restored through sharp restrictions on domestic credit in 2009 and other measures that reduced inflation, and the September 2010 devaluation of the Birr • Macroeconomic stability will be crucial for growth and poverty reduction• Managing the Rural-Urban Transformation • Urbanization rates remain low (less than 20 percent) in spite of recent increases • Measures that facilitate sale of land or avoid loss of land rights for those who migrate could accelerate rural-urban migration • Achieving an appropriate balance of rural and urban public investments can facilitate both economic growth and overall poverty reduction 60
  56. 56. Conclusions• Ethiopia has made enormous progress in food security and poverty reduction since the famines of the 1970s and 1980s• Significant variations in agro-ecology, population densities and infrastructure make Ethiopia’s agricultural and food economy complex and necessitate a regional approach to agricultural development and food security• Continued progress will require both public and private investments and appropriate agricultural and economic policies that provide incentives for adoption of technology, enhance market efficiency and provide effective safety nets 61
  57. 57. Ethiopia Strategy Support Program Capacity Building GIS Training 2009 CGE Paper Authors EEA Conference 2010  CGE Course Ceremony 2009