Growth trends and potential for crop and livestock productivity

1. Growth trends and potential for
crop and livestock productivity
Fantu Bachewe; Guush Berhane; and Bart Minten
IFPRI
The Future of Ethiopia’s Agriculture: Towards a Resilient System to End
Hunger and Undernutrition
Addis Ababa Hilton
December 15, 2017
Addis Ababa
1

2. Presentation plan
 Overview: role of agriculture in the overall economy
 Livestock production and productivity in the last decade
(Fantu)
 Crop production, productivity and drivers (Guush)
 Looking into the future: Ethiopia’s agriculture in the context
of selected countries
 CSA data is used unless otherwise mentioned

3. 3
1. Introduction
• Agriculture important contributor to rapid growth during 2004-2015
o Accounted for 45% of GDP and 30.5% of growth in GDP
o Crop output accounted for 31% of GDP and livestock for 10%
Figure 1 — Share in GDP and average contribution to GDP growth, 2004/5-2015/16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Share in GDP (%)
Agriculture Crop Livestock Industry Services
Crop
24%
Livestock
5%
Other
primary
2%
Industry
16%
Services
53%
Average contribution to GDP growth

4. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Trends in livestock production,
productivity, and input use in Ethiopia
Presenter: Fantu Bachewe
4

5. 2. Livestock production and productivity
Livestock number
• Livestock means of animal-sourced food (ASF) production and are
end-products
• Cattle largest in number & on average grew at 3.8% during 2004-2015
o Growth averaged 4.6% in sheep and 5.6% or higher in others
• Livestock deaths significant and adversely affect productivity
o Over 3 million cattle, sheep, & goats lost to death annually since 2005
• Deaths as % of stock declined, e.g. cattle 16%

6. Live animal marketing
• Number sold for off-farm slaughter, net commercial off-take (NCOT),
doubled in cattle, grew at 56% in sheep and at 131% in goats
• NCOT rate (NCOT/average stock) grew in all animals except poultry
Figure 2 — Net commercial off-take number (millions) and rate (%), 2005/06-2014/15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Cattle Sheep Goat Cattle Sheep Goat
NCOT (number) NCOT rate (%)
2005
2010
2014

7. Animal-sourced food (ASF) production and productivity
• ASF output grew considerably
o Egg output grew by 93% and milk output by 41% during 2005/06 – 2015/16
• Productivity (output per animal) stagnated
Figure 3 — Annual milk and egg production and productivity, 2005/06-2015/16
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 2010 2015
Productivity
Milk (100 lts/cow/year) Egg (dozens/hen/year)
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Output
Eggs (million dozens) Milk (billion liters)

8. 8
Figure 4 — Milk productivity (kg/cow/year), 2014 (FAOSTAT, 2017)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Uganda
Kenya
Malawi
India
Indonesia
China
Thailand
EastAfrica
Africa
Asia

9. Growth accounting analyses of the livestock subsector
• Labor & livestock most important, accounted for ¾ of output growth
• Modern inputs contributed only 11% to livestock output growth
Figure 5 — Average contribution as % of livestock output growth (2004/05 – 2014/15)
Labor
49%
Grazing land
9%
Livestock
25%
Improved feed
9%
RTS & rural roads
5%
Other factors
2%
∆ TFP
1%

10. 3. Input use and intensification
Livestock feed
• Green fodder (grazing) important but the share of users declining
• Lower share use improved feed but share doubled
o Purchased, particularly Improved feed, increasing in importance
Figure 6 — Share using feed and purchased feed, 2004-2015
4
6
8
10
12
14
95
96
97
98
99
100
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Improvedfeed
Grazing
Feed users (%)
Grazing
Improved feed
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Purchased feed users (%)

11. Livestock extension
• Dairy, meat, & poultry extension users increased by 28%, 11%, & 37%
• Share of extension users stagnant & considerably lower in livestock
Figure 7 — Number and share of farmers using livestock extension, 2005 and 2014
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
Dairy Meat Poultry
Number using livestock extension
2005 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2014
Share using extension
Crop extension (%) Livestock extension (%)

12. Veterinary services
• Share of vaccinated cattle, sheep, & goats more than doubled
• Share afflicted with diseases declined in goats and grew slightly in
cattle and sheep (excluding 2008 it declined in all 3)
• Animals treated for diseases grew by 63% in cattle, & by over 114%
in sheep & goats
Figure 8 – Share of vaccinated and treated livestock, 2004-2015
0
20
40
60
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Vaccinated (% out of stock)
Cattle Sheep Goats
0
20
40
60
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Share of treated out of afflicted (%)
Cattle Sheep Goats

13. Dairy processing and livestock breed composition
• Dairy processors more than tripled & processed milk output grew 93%
• Share of cross-bred cows and poultry low but grew 130% & 90%
Figure 11 — Share of cross-bred
cows and poultry (%), 2004-2014
0
1
2
3
4
5
2004 2010 2014
Cross-bred cows (%)
Cross-bred poultry (%)
Figure 10 — Number of milk processing plants
and processed milk output, 2007-2015
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
10
20
30
40
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Monthlyprocessedmilkoutput
Dairyprocessors
Dairy processors (number)
Monthly processed milk (million liters)

14. 4. Conclusions
• Livestock contributed little to GDP & importance declined
• Rapid growth in ASF output but productivity stagnant
• Modern inputs contributed little to output growth
• Improved feed & cross-bred livestock low but increasing in importance
• Livestock extension users low and stagnant
• Vaccination and treatment of sick livestock increased considerably
while share afflicted with diseases overall declined
• Demand and supply side factors indicate considerable potential
1. Spending on ASF as well as livestock exports grew
o Further increase in spending expected with growth in income
2. Use levels of modern inputs low
3. Large and fast growing animal stocks but predominantly low-yielding
breeds