The COVID-19 Pandemic and Food Security in Ethiopia – An Interim Analysis

1. (The COVID-19 Pandemic and Food Security in Ethiopia
– An Interim Analysis)
Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse (IFPRI)
A Presentation at the Ministry of Science and Higher Education (MoSHE)
and Ethiopian Academy of Science (EAS) Webinar
June 3, 2020

2. አጭር ቢጋር

3. Covid-19 related blogs and papers
1. Ethiopia specific: http://essp.ifpri.info/
 Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on vegetable value chains in Ethiopia
 Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on coffee value chains in Ethiopia
 Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on dairy value chains in Ethiopia
 Response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia – Some reflections
 ESSP WP 142, COVID-19 prevention measures in Ethiopia: Current realities and prospects
 ESSP WP 143, Food and nutrition security in Addis Ababa during COVID-19 pandemic: May
2020 report
 ESSP WP (forthcoming), The Short-term Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in
Ethiopia through External Sector Channels: An Economy-wide Multiplier Analysis
2. Global: https://www.ifpri.org/covid-19, https://www.theigc.org/blog/igcs-response-to-covid-19/

4. 4
የምግብ ዋስትና - ትርጉም (ጽንሰሃሳብ)
 የምግብ ዋስት የተለያዩ ትርጉሞች በየጊዜዉ ተሰጥቶታል፤ በአብዛኛዉ ተቀባይነት ያገኘዉ ትርጉም የሚከተለዉ
ነዉ፡፡
“የምግብ ዋስትና የሚረጋገጠዉ፤ በግለሰብ፣በቤተሰብ፣በአገር፣በክፍለ-አለምና፣በአለም ደረጃ፤ ሁሉም ሰዎች፣
ሁል ጊዜ፣ ለበቂ፣ ለደህና (አደጋን የማያስከትል)እና እና ፣ ለአልሚ (የተመጣጠነ)፤ የአመጋገብ ፍላጎታቸዉንና
የምግብ ምርጫቸዉን ለሚያምዋላ፤ ለንቁና ጤናማ ህይወት አስፈላጊያቸዉ ለሆነ ምግብ ቁሳዊና ኢኮኖሚያዊ
ተደራሽነት ሲኖራቸዉ ነዉ፡፡” (World Food Summit 1996)
 አካላት (domains): ቁሳዊ አቅርቦት, ተደራሽነት, አጠቃቀም, S[ÒÒƒ;
 የምግብ ዋስትና አንድ ጥቅል መለኪያ የለዉም
 አካላቱና (አቅርቦት፣ ተደራሽነት….) እና ተያያዥ ወሳኝ ክስተቶች (ገቢ፤ ዋጋ፤ ማህበራዊ ጥበቃ …)
(constituents and determinants) ላይ የተመሰረቱ ብዙ መለኪያዎች ተፈጥረዋል፡፡
 ትኩረት – ¾UÓw (ኤነርጄ (ካሎሪ) ፍጆታ፣ የምግብ አይነቶች ቁጥር (Diet Diversity)፤ የስርአተ-
ምግብ ዉጤት መለኪያዎች (nutritional outcomes)

5. Economy-wide Effects
EXTERNAL
Impact channels
Due to partial or full
lockdowns in other
countries
DOMESTIC
Impact channels
Due to partial lockdown in
Ethiopia
stay-at-home campaign, school
closures, travel restrictions, state
of emergency
TOTAL
ECONOMY-
WIDE IMPACT
Output
Jobs
Households
Direct
impact
channels
Multiplier
impact Agriculture Banking, finance &
insurance
Mining & crude oil Professional &
business services
Manufacturing Public admin & law
enforcement
Utilities Education services
Construction Health services
Wholesale & retail
trade services
Sports & entertainment
Transportation, storage
& cargo
Other services
Hotels & food services
Export demand
Remittances
Imports
Source: Clemens Breisinger (2020). “COVID-19 and the Economic Impact on Egypt”, A Presentation at the IFPRI
Webinar on April 30, 2020 (with some modifications).
Some Observed Effects:
Exports, remittances
Multiplechannels

6. Objective and Approach
 Objective:
o to estimate the short-run (up to a year) economy-wide (direct and indirect) effects of
major COVID-19-related shocks;
o Focus on three external channels – exports, imports, and remittances (most directly and
immediately affected)
 Approach – Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based multiplier analysis
o Appropriate:
• captures economy-wide interlinkages – good to measure direct and indirect effects;
• suitable to analyze sudden, large, and temporally very concentrated shock;
o Two SAMs – IFPRI 2017 SAM, EU/PSI 2016 SAM;
 Key Assumptions
o Fixed prices, no behavioural responses, no policy responses;

7. Shocks
 Shocks
o Composition – reduced exports, imports, and remittances;
o Incidence – how much difference from the ‘no-COVID-19’ level will the shocks
represent – 33%; and
o Duration – report on the case of the shocks lasting for 6 months;
 Simulations
o Remittance only – effect of a 33% decline in remittances for 6 months;.
o Exports only – effect of a 33% fall in all exports for 6 months.
o Strategic imports only – effect of a 33% reduction in strategic imports (fertilizer,
fuel, chemicals, mineral products, metals, vehicles, machinery and equipment,
manufacturing materials) for 6 months.
o All three together – report only the joint effect of the three shocks.

8.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP
Estimated Effects
8
-5.5%
-7.3%
-2.7%
-6.1%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
Total GDP Agriculture Industry Services

9.  Household incomes
Estimated Effects
9
-6.4% -6.6%
-6.1%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
National Rural Urban
-6.6% -6.6%
-8.5%
-6.0%
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
Rural poor Rural non-poor
Urban poor Urban non-poor

10. Effects of COVID-19 on agricultural markets
 Measures:
 Land borders closed
 Some regional states closed borders or restricted movement
 No meetings of more than 4 people
- Reduction in economic activity
Assess local rural-urban value chains, for dairy and vegetables

11.  Input markets
 Laborers harder to find
o Important for vegetable production
o Wages +40% (from 150 to 250 Birr/day).
 Availability of modern inputs becoming problematic
o Agro-chemicals (often from China) and chemical fertilizers
o Improved seeds shortage with rising significantly rising prices (up to 4-
fold)
o Feed prices have gone up by 40% (but only temporarily)
o Prices veterinary medicines +20%

12.  Output markets
 Producer prices
o Fluctuating for most products - lower urban demand, lower supply (lower
particularly for vegetables);
o Remain unaffected for liquid milk (for those able to sell)
 Consumer prices
o Fluctuating – rose sharply initially as consumers build stocks, came down
after a while, end-up higher than pre COVID-19 levels
‘Teff'
black
Maize Cabbage Lettuce Carrot Tomato Onions Garlic
Horse
beans
Chick-
peas
Peas
Inflation (April 2019 vs.
April 2018)
13.8 5.1 31.8 57.4 24.3 67.9 60.1 48.1 10.5 0.4 3.1
Inflation (April 2020 vs.
April 2019)
53.4 30.9 20.6 -28.3 -12.5 -17.6 21.6 135.3 61.8 47.7 59.5

13. Effects of COVID-19 on households
 Phone Survey
 Building on a recent large household survey in Addis Ababa conducted
just before the pandemic started
 Phone survey conducted in early May with 600 households
 Focus on income changes and food and nutrition security

14.  Income and price effects are the largest among household self-reported
pandemic impacts
Aspect of the Corona crisis that has the greatest impact on your household (% of households)
Unemployment
/ loss of
income
High
cost of
food
Poorest
(%) 38.3 26.7
Richest
(%) 26.7 14.2

15. More than 50 % report a loss in income
Change in income levels in April 2020 compared to usual incomes

16.  Main coping mechanisms were to rely on savings (41.8%),
or to cut food or non-food consumption (43.3%)

17.  Many households are shifting away from more nutrient dense foods

18.  Many households are shifting away from more nutrient dense
foods
Share of households consuming dairy products Addis (by wealth status)
56.2
30.8
53.3
60.8
64.2
71.7
45.2
20.8
40
44.2
51.7
69.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Average Poorest
quintile
Poorer Middle Rich Richest
quintile
Sharehouseholds(%)
Jan-Feb May

19.  Many households share mis-conceptions on how the virus spreads,
which affect their food and nutrition security
What foods are you avoiding because of Covid-19?
51.5
22
2.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Animal source foods
Vegetables
Fruits
% of households

20.  Many households share mis-conceptions on how the virus spreads,
which affect their food and nutrition security
Consume more to reduce the COVID-19 risk?
46.5
41.7
19.5
3.8
1
0 10 20 30 40 50
Garlic
Ginger
Citrus fruits
Chili pepper
Honey
% of households

21. Some Observations
 Large short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the
international/domestic responses to combat it are likely.
 The quick and appropriate steps taken by the government should be recognised
and their sustained implementation with active learning should continue.
 Continue to dispel misconceptions about food types and the spread of COVID-19;
 Introduce substitutes for the discontinued school feeding program due to
school closure;
 Work towards solving transportation problems that restrict trade flows.
 Keep markets open with clear and enforced sanitization procedures and
appropriately scheduled closed days to implement those procedures.

22. Some Observations
 Ensure modern inputs reach farmers on time for Meher;
 Expand coverage of social safety nets – both urban and rural
 On lockdowns
 Complete and extended lockdowns will not be feasible or effective in most
poor countries
 Selective lockdowns focusing on areas with concentrated incidence of
COVID-19 infection viable and useful;