keynote speech at Chalmers Conference in Sept 2019, https://www.chalmers.se/en/areas-of-advance/Transport/calendar/initiative-seminar-2019/Pages/default.aspx

1. Exploring the Future of Transportation
Professor Robin Teigland
Chalmers University of Technoloty
Technology Management & Economics
September 2019
www.robinteigland.com | www.slideshare.net/eteigland | robin.teigland@chalmers.se | @RobinTeigland

2. People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Gig economy
• Online learning
• Sharing not owning
• Sustainability
Technology
• Broadband/wifi
• Cloud, fog
• Internet of Things
• AI/ML/DL/NN
• Autonomous vehicles
• Smart robotics
• VR/AR/Holography
• 3D/4D printing/ALM
• Blockchains
• Nanotechnology
• Quantum computing
Open Source
• Software
• Hardware
• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance
• Microlending/microfinance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P lending
• Cryptocurrencies, tokens
• Blockchains, smart contracts
• Mobile money and payments
• M2M/R2R payments

3. Disruptions....
the likes of which the industry
hasn’t seen since the automated
assembly line.

4. “We always overestimate the change
that will occur in the next two years and
underestimate the change that will
occur in the next ten.”
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996

5. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

6. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

7. FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 135,000 $39B
UBER 2009 25,000 $58B
MARRIOTT 1927 176,000 $42B
AIRBNB 2008 3,100 $35B
WALT DISNEY 1923 201,000 $245B
FACEBOOK 2004 40,000 $519B
WALMART 1962 2,200,000 $319B
ALIBABA 1999 102,000 $446B
Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, updated August 2019
Something fundamental is changing

8. Transforming the transportation industry
http://www.slideshare.net/MarketRevolution/shsu-sharing-economy-collaborative-consumption

9. Shifting market logics
Ericsson & Augur 2011

10. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/

15. Pizzas, AI, robots, and AVs

16. https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/meet-the-ceo-running-a-billion-dollar-company-with-no-offices-or-email.html

17. https://www.outsite.co/

18. ReGen Villages: Fully self-sufficient
http://www.regenvillages.com/

20. Increasing forces
for local community and
circular economies

21. So, how can we
prepare for the future?

22. All our knowledge is about the past,
but all our strategic decisions are about the future
Conway 2003
What we don’t know
we don’t know
about the future
What we know
What we know
we don’t know

23. A simple exercise
Read out loud together

24. OPPORTUNITIESARENOWHERE

25. Looking into the future?
• Forecast
–How we think the future will be
• Vision
–How we want the future to be
• Scenarios
–What the future can be
–“Alternative memories” from the future
?
?
?
?

26. FUTURE OF
USER
NEEDS
Political Economic
Sociological
TechnologicalEnvironmental
Legal
PESTEL

29. Future of energy?

30. Four scenarios for 2035
Global
Power
Struggle
Scenario 4
Business More or Less as Usual
New
World
Order
High Technology Convergence
Low Technology Convergence
Scenario 2
Circular “ReGen” Villages
Scenario 3
Global Village Networks
Scenario 1
MegaCities in the ”Wild West”

31. Four scenarios for 2035
Global
Power
Struggle
High Technology Convergence
MegaCities in the ”Wild West”
National platforms drive out foreign platforms and
products. Global MegaCities thirst for resources and
products, yet a high level of piracy and terrorism makes
travel and transportation a very dangerous business.
Low Technology Convergence
New
World
Order

32. Four scenarios for 2035
Global
Power
Struggle
High Technology Convergence
Circular “ReGen” Villages
Self-sufficient, off-grid communities are enabled by
part-time “producers” in Gig Economy while high
protectionism blocks foreign trade. New energy
resources and circular technologies combined with a
sharing mentality drastically reduce demand for all
transportation forms.
Low Technology Convergence
New
World
Order

33. Four scenarios for 2035
Global
Power
Struggle
High Technology Convergence
Low Technology Convergence
New
World
Order
Global Village Networks
Nomadic communities across countries, in oceans,
and even in space source products and services
directly from small, sustainable producers
worldwide, combined with new energy resources
rapidly increase all transportation forms.

34. Four scenarios for 2035
Global
Power
Struggle
High Technology Convergence
Business More or Less as Usual
A few mega-platforms from China and USA dominate trade
by sourcing from global mega producers and delivering
directly on-demand to a vastly urbanized world. Traditional
transportation steadily increases while renewables
transition is slow.
Low Technology Convergence
New
World
Order

35. Four scenarios for 2035
Global
Power
Struggle
Scenario 4
Business More or Less as Usual
New
World
Order
High Technology Convergence
Low Technology Convergence
Scenario 2
Circular “ReGen” Villages
Scenario 3
Global Village Networks
Scenario 1
MegaCities in the ”Wild West”

36. Products and services are becoming
increasingly more complex…

37. ..and it will only continue

38. We Tend to Jump Right to the Future
–
To the Solution Mode
Creative thinking does not start with
brainstorming solutions
A likely outcome is to produce the
right answers to the wrong questions

39. Exploitation Exploration

40. BA
Two individuals (organizations)
with the same number of contacts…

41. …but with very different
access to signals, ideas, and resources
BA

42. Peniche, Portugal
One Hour North of Lisbon

44. Centuries of Tradition

47. To enable small-scale fishing fleets to become competitive
and sustainable through a subscription data service
The Peladrone Project

48. People don’t want a quarter-inch drill,
they want a quarter-inch hole.
-Theodore Levitt,
Harvard Professor of Marketing

49. From catching
fish to searching
for ocean litter
Extending the Peladrone-as-a-service range

50. Mapping Ocean Litter
with AI and Drones
Recycling Ocean Waste with
Carbon, Graphene, & 3D Printing
Recovering Ocean Litter with
Repurposed Fishing Vessels
Manufacturing combined
with Blockchain
PENICHE OCEAN WATCH
A Blue Circular Economy Based on Ocean Litter
Sustainable Ocean
Entrepreneurship

51. Go4Surf
2Rodas
The Green
Warehouse
Fishing Port
SmartOcean
ESTM
CETEMARES
EXAME 2019

52. Exploration

53. Robin Teigland
www.robinteigland.com
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
robin.teigland@chalmers.se
@RobinTeigland
http://www.go4surf.pt/
Trond Gunnar Teigland
tgteigland94@gmail.com
www.PenicheOceanWatch.com
@penicheoceanwatch
If you love knowledge, set it free!
OCEAN
TECH
HUB