Presentation for LRF in April 2019, https://www.lrf.se/mitt-lrf/engagera-dig-och-paverka/tank-om/tank-om-framtiden/

1. The New Industrial Revolution?
Exploring future scenarios of value creation
Professor Robin Teigland
www.robinteigland.com | www.slideshare.net/eteigland | robin.teigland@gmail.com | @RobinTeigland

2. People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Gig economy
• Online learning
• Sharing not owning
• Sustainability
Technology
• Broadband/wifi
• Cloud, fog
• Internet of Things
• AI/ML/DL/NN
• Autonomous vehicles
• Smart robotics
• VR/AR/Holography
• 3D/4D printing/ALM
• Blockchains
• Nanotechnology
• Quantum computing
Open Source
• Software
• Hardware
• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance
• Microlending/microfinance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P lending
• Cryptocurrencies, tokens
• Blockchains, smart contracts
• Mobile money and payments
• M2M/R2R payments

3. If the rate of change on the
outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of
change on the inside,
the end is near....
-Jack Welch

4. Digital is the main reason
just over half the Fortune 500 companies
have disappeared since the year 2000.
-Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016
Yet..Digital disruption
has only just begun.

5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiEzf3J4iFk

6. All our knowledge is about the past,
but all our strategic decisions are about the future
Conway 2003
What we don’t know
we don’t know
about the future
What we know
What we know
we don’t know

7. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

8. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

9. We always overestimate the change
that will occur in the next two years
and underestimate the change
that will occur in the next ten.
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996

10. Updated from http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/; statista, November 2018
$1.06T $754B$782B $820B
2018
$438B
Technology (AI) replacing energy and
banking

11. While 63% of CEOs
believe AI will have a
larger impact on the
world than the
internet,….
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2019/report/pwc-22nd-annual-global-ceo-survey.pdf
…only 3% have
AI as fundamental to
the organization’s
operations.

12. Free online AI courses

13. Smart Robots

14. H.I.S. Co. Hotels run by robots
Check-in
Other Automated Tasks
Concierge, Porters, Cleaning, Lawnmowing,
Room Service, Robot Trashcan, Robot Fish
Food Deliveries

15. Alibaba’s FlyZoo Future Hotel
https://www.alizila.com/introducing-alibabas-flyzoo-future-hotel/

16. Exploitation Exploration

17. FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 130,000 $56B
UBER 2009 16,000 $72B
MARRIOTT 1927 177,000 $40B
AIRBNB 2008 10,000 $38B
WALT DISNEY 1923 199,000 $171B
FACEBOOK 2004 25,000 $422B
WALMART 1962 2,200,000 $300B
ALIBABA 1999 66,000 $353B
Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, updated November 2018
Something fundamental is changing

18. Everytime you interact with an Airbnb
app or the website, you’re interacting
with machine learning in one way or
another.
-Mike Curtis, VP of Engineering

19. Shifting market logics – The rise of platforms
Ericsson & Augur 2011

20. Merging e-commerce and brick’n mortar
Over 1 mln Mom & Pop
stores digitalized
Hema cashless supermarkets
with chefs & online order delivery

21. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/

26. https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/meet-the-ceo-running-a-billion-dollar-company-with-no-offices-or-email.html

27. Co-living/co-working for giggers, entrepreneurs & FTEs
https://www.outsite.co/

28. Cohousing across all generations

29. Transformation of economic activity
Centralized,
hierarchical
organizations
Decentralized,
self-organizing
organizations

30. Scheveningen Harbor – The Hague

31. 3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat
Knowledge: RepRap community
E-commerce: Aliexpress

32. My first attempt at 3D printing – Successful!

33. Do-it-yourself (DIY) microfactory networks

34. Increasing forces
for local community and
circular economies

35. Smart cities and microgrids

36. Sustainable, circular shrimp
”Jag har inte sett så här fina räkor i Sverige sedan….. Nä jag
har ALDRIG sett så här fina räkor.. Smaken den är underbar,
köttet jag kan inte ens beskriva det, det är som en blandning
mellan hummer och havskräfta” -Tareq Taylor

37. From 30,000 parts to 50 parts with 3D printing

38. ReGen Villages – Fully self-sufficient
http://www.regenvillages.com/

40. So, how can we
prepare for the future?

41. Looking into the future?
• Forecast
–How we think the future will be
• Vision
–How we want the future to be
• Scenarios
–What the future can be
–“Alternative memories” from the future
?
?
?
?

42. FUTURE OF
VALUE
CREATION
Political Economic
Sociological
TechnologicalEnvironmental
Legal
PESTEL

46. http://www.hui.se/nyheter/arets-julklapp-2018

47. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/

49. BA
Two individuals (organizations)
with the same number of contacts…

50. …but with very different
access to signals, ideas, and resources
BA

52. Peniche, Portugal
One hour north of Lisbon

53. Centuries of tradition

55. Tragedy of
the Commons

56. A Broken Economic Model

57. Exploration

58. Marine litter
on Peniche seafloor

59. Digital technologies enable
ocean opportunities
• Renewables
• Robotics and drones
• AI/ML/NN
• Marine simulations
• New material technologies
• Additive manufacturing
• Internet of things
• Blockchain
Entrepreneurial Mindset

60. University
Shipyard
Port
Tourists
Entrepreneurs
Fishing Boats
Underutilized Resources
Warehouses
Fishermen
Digital Nomads
Students
Local Industries

62. Mapping Ocean Litter with AI and
Underwater Drones
Recycling Ocean Waste with
Graphene and 3D Printing
Recovering Ocean Litter with
Repurposed Fishing Vessels
Manufacturing combined
with Blockchain
PENICHE OCEAN WATCH
A Blue Circular Economy Based on Ocean Litter
Sustainable Ocean
Entrepreneurship

63. Boundary spanning -> Future success
1. Build relationships across diverse networks, avoid echo chambers
2. Practice scenario thinking and look for signals from the periphery
3. Ask “What if?”, challenge basic assumptions, and experiment
4. Ensure access to resources, not ownership, through your networks
Boundary
spanner

64. Robin Teigland
www.robinteigland.com
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
robin.teigland@gmail.se
@RobinTeigland
http://www.go4surf.pt/
Trond Gunnar Teigland
tgteigland94@gmail.com
https://www.facebook.com/PenicheOceanWatch
@penicheoceanwatch
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