Presentation for the Outotec Leaders' Forum in Helsinki in Sept 2018.

1. The New Industrial Revolution?
Exploring future scenarios of value creation
Professor Robin Teigland
Stockholm School of Economics
www.robinteigland.com | www.slideshare.net/eteigland | Robin.teigland@hhs.se | @RobinTeigland

2. People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Gig economy
• Lifelong learning
• Sharing not owning
• Sustainability
Technology
• AI/ML/DL/NN
• Smart robotics & cognitive automation
• Biotech/gene editing/biomanufacturing
• Internet of Things
• Interface of Things (AR/VR/Mixed)
• Additive manufacturing
• Advanced materials
• Blockchain
• Renewables
• Quantum computing
• Nanotechnology
Open Source
• Software
• Hardware
• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P lending
• Cryptocurrencies/tokens
• Blockchains, smart contracts
• Mobile money and payments
• M2M/R2R payments
• Benefit Corporations

3. If the rate of change on the
outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of
change on the inside,
the end is near....
-Jack Welch

4. Digital is the main reason
just over half the Fortune 500 companies
have disappeared since the year 2000.
-Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016
Yet..Digital disruption
has only just begun.

5. All our knowledge is about the past,
but all our strategic decisions are about the future
Conway 2003
What we don’t know
we don’t know
about the future What we know
What we know
we don’t know

6. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

7. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

8. “We always overestimate the change
that will occur in the next two years
and underestimate the change that
will occur in the next ten.”
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996

9. 2015
Smart Robots

10. H.I.S. Co. has two Henn na Hotels run
“entirely” by robots and plans to open 100 hotels.
Check-in
Other Automated Tasks
Concierge, Porters, Cleaning, Lawnmowing, Room Service, Robot Trashcan, Robot fish
2017
Food deliveries

11. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/

12. Technology replacing Energy and Banking
Updated from http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/
$905B $660B$730B $512B
2018
$280B

13. FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 125,000 $60B
UBER 2009 11,000 $48B
MARRIOTT 1927 227,000 $51B
AIRBNB 2008 5,000 $31B
WALT DISNEY 1923 195,000 $167B
FACEBOOK 2004 21,000 $512B
WALMART 1962 2,300,000 $298B
ALIBABA 1999 50,000 $469B
Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, updated January 2018
Something fundamental is changing

14. Shifting market logics
Ericsson & Augur 2011

15. B2B data platforms

16. McKinsey Sept 2018
Most heavy industries at
middle stages of digital maturity
• Data analytics
• Digital workforce
• Asset network value
maximization
• Robotics & cobotics

17. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/

19. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Blockchain
Additive Manufacturing
Next Gen Computing
Digital Design, Simulation, Integration
Energy Storage
Artificial Intelligence
Interface of Things
Smart Robotics & Cognitive Automation
Advanced Analytics
Advanced Materials
Biotechnology/Biomanufacturing
Internet of Things
2016 2021
Market Cap of Exponential Technologies
USD Bln
https://www.compete.org/storage/reports/exponential_technologies_2018_study.pdf

20. Perception is linear but reality is exponential
https://www.compete.org/storage/reports/exponential_technologies_2018_study.pdf

21. Exploitation
Improving existing
value creation
activities
Exploration
Developing new
value creation
activities
Adapted from March 1991

22. Scheveningen Harbor – The Hague

23. A 3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat
Knowledge: RepRap community
E-commerce: Aliexpress

24. My first attempt at 3D printing – successful!

25. Do-it-yourself (DIY) microfactory networks

26. Olli - 3D printed autonomous vehicle
with IBM Watson
https://www.3dprintingbusiness.directory/news/local-motors-prepares-serial-production-ollie-3d-printed-smart-vehicles/
From 25-30,000 parts to 50 partsFrom 25-30,000 parts to 50 parts

27. 3D printed complex structures with graphene
https://www.tctmagazine.com/3d-printing-news/researchers-new-3d-print-complex-structures-graphene/

28. Peniche Ocean Watch A Circular Economy where
Ocean meets Digitalization
€

29. Increasing forces
for local community and
circular economies

30. https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/meet-the-ceo-running-a-billion-dollar-company-with-no-offices-or-email.html

31. Giggers, Entrepreneurs, and FTEs
in co-living/co-working spaces
https://www.outsite.co/

32. Blockchain to disrupt the energy sector?
Peer-to-Peer microgrids for renewable energy

33. ReGen Villages – Fully self-sufficient
http://www.regenvillages.com/

35. http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/

36. Transformation of economic activity
Centralized,
hierarchical
organizations
Decentralized,
self-organizing, autonomous
organizations

37. So, how can we
prepare for the future?

38. Looking into the future?
• Forecast
– How we think the future will be
• Vision
– How we want the future to be
• Scenarios
– What the future can be
– “Alternative memories” from the future
?
?
?
?

39. Interdependent, yet quite different
elements of strategy
• Scenario Thinking
– Explore options. Practice divergent thinking
with incomplete/ambiguous information.
• Strategy Development
– Assess options. Examine choices and make
decisions and/or set a direction.
• Strategic Planning
– Implement actions. Make it happen.
Swinburne
Distant future
High uncertainty
Here and now
Low uncertainty

40. Two modes of thinking
https://cucumber.io/blog/2014/10/21/the-two-modes-of-thought-you-need-for-bdd

41. Boundary spanning enables scenario thinking
1. Build relationships across diverse networks, avoid echo chambers
2. Practice scenario thinking and look for signals from the periphery
3. Ask “What if?”, challenge basic assumptions, and experiment
4. Ensure access to resources, not ownership, through your networks
Boundary
spanner

42. BA
Two individuals (organizations)
with the same number of contacts…

43. …but with very different
access to signals, ideas, and resources
BA

44. The future is already here -
it’s just not very evenly
distributed.
- William Gibson
Signals from the periphery…

45. www.robinteigland.com
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
Robin.teigland@hhs.se
@RobinTeigland