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State of play – new model
developments
Introduction
1. Wildlife component
2. Biosecurity
3. Post-outbreak management
4. Rendering capacity
Wildlife component
 Objective:
To build an integrated wildlife – livestock TAD spread modelling
capability into the EuFMDiS model environment to support emergency
animal disease control planning in Europe.
 Has been identified as a priority by ExCom
 Development to be prototyped using CSF in Spain as the demonstration
disease and country
 CSF - considerable experience in Europe both in wild boar and
domestic pigs
Collaborators
 EuFMDiS development team
 EuFMD
 El Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos
(IREC) – Spain
 Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research -
UFZGmbHKey - Germany
Steps
 Incorporate wild boar distribution and density data into the EuFMDiS
modelling platform
 Model CSF spread within the wild boar population, building on existing
approaches and knowledge.
 Model potential CSF transmission within the pig farming sector, building on
previous experience and knowledge in the scientific literature
 Identify, incorporate and parameterise mechanisms by which domestic pigs
may be exposed to CSF from infected wild boar, and vice versa.
 Identify and incorporate control measures for (a) domestic pigs (b) wild boar
Current status
 Work plan drafted
 Letters of agreement with collaborating agencies
 Wild boar distribution / density layer for Spain
 Domestic pig data for Spain well-advanced
 Literature reviews underway
 Meeting later this week
Biosecurity
 Aim:
 Build capacity to model impact of farm-level biosecurity measures on
FMD transmission
 Approach:
 Analysis of measurement data on biosecurity measures as collected in
Europe by the BioCheck.Ugent system.
 Define a specific biosecurity score that can estimate the reduction of FMD
spread in pigs and cattle that can be achieved by enhancing biosecurity
 Incorporate biosecurity scores into EuFMDiS model to user able to
evaluate effects of modifying biosecurity measures
Biosecurity cont’d
 Collaborators
 EuFMDiS development team
 EuFMD
 University of Ghent – Belgium
 Status
 Letter of Agreement with University of Ghent drafted
 Discussions between project participants this week
Post-outbreak management
 The AADIS/EuFMDiS model contains a module that can be used to study
post-outbreak management issues:

 1. Compare different approaches to managing vaccinated animals
when vaccination has been used as part of an FMD control program

 2. Study different approaches to undertaking surveillance in vaccinated
and non-vaccinated populations to support regaining FMD free status.
Post-outbreak management issues cont’d
 Aim
 To adapt this module for Europe
 Parameterise the module so it can be used by participating countries
 Status
 Documentation has been prepared for participating countries,
including data collection templates and instructions
Rendering capacity
 Aim:
 To incorporate carcase disposal/rendering capacity, as a potential
limitation on FMD control, into the EuFMDiS model
 Status:
 Initial discussions held
 Questionnaire survey document on carcase disposal to collect data
from participating countries has been developed

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EuFMDiS Meetings 01/2020 - State of play - new model developments - G. Garner

  • 1. State of play – new model developments
  • 2. Introduction 1. Wildlife component 2. Biosecurity 3. Post-outbreak management 4. Rendering capacity
  • 3. Wildlife component  Objective: To build an integrated wildlife – livestock TAD spread modelling capability into the EuFMDiS model environment to support emergency animal disease control planning in Europe.  Has been identified as a priority by ExCom  Development to be prototyped using CSF in Spain as the demonstration disease and country  CSF - considerable experience in Europe both in wild boar and domestic pigs
  • 4. Collaborators  EuFMDiS development team  EuFMD  El Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC) – Spain  Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZGmbHKey - Germany
  • 5. Steps  Incorporate wild boar distribution and density data into the EuFMDiS modelling platform  Model CSF spread within the wild boar population, building on existing approaches and knowledge.  Model potential CSF transmission within the pig farming sector, building on previous experience and knowledge in the scientific literature  Identify, incorporate and parameterise mechanisms by which domestic pigs may be exposed to CSF from infected wild boar, and vice versa.  Identify and incorporate control measures for (a) domestic pigs (b) wild boar
  • 6. Current status  Work plan drafted  Letters of agreement with collaborating agencies  Wild boar distribution / density layer for Spain  Domestic pig data for Spain well-advanced  Literature reviews underway  Meeting later this week
  • 7. Biosecurity  Aim:  Build capacity to model impact of farm-level biosecurity measures on FMD transmission  Approach:  Analysis of measurement data on biosecurity measures as collected in Europe by the BioCheck.Ugent system.  Define a specific biosecurity score that can estimate the reduction of FMD spread in pigs and cattle that can be achieved by enhancing biosecurity  Incorporate biosecurity scores into EuFMDiS model to user able to evaluate effects of modifying biosecurity measures
  • 8. Biosecurity cont’d  Collaborators  EuFMDiS development team  EuFMD  University of Ghent – Belgium  Status  Letter of Agreement with University of Ghent drafted  Discussions between project participants this week
  • 9. Post-outbreak management  The AADIS/EuFMDiS model contains a module that can be used to study post-outbreak management issues:   1. Compare different approaches to managing vaccinated animals when vaccination has been used as part of an FMD control program   2. Study different approaches to undertaking surveillance in vaccinated and non-vaccinated populations to support regaining FMD free status.
  • 10. Post-outbreak management issues cont’d  Aim  To adapt this module for Europe  Parameterise the module so it can be used by participating countries  Status  Documentation has been prepared for participating countries, including data collection templates and instructions
  • 11. Rendering capacity  Aim:  To incorporate carcase disposal/rendering capacity, as a potential limitation on FMD control, into the EuFMDiS model  Status:  Initial discussions held  Questionnaire survey document on carcase disposal to collect data from participating countries has been developed