This article aims to analyze the triggering factors of social revolutions that have occurred throughout human history and assess the possibility of their occurrence in contemporary Brazil.

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SOCIAL REVOLUTIONS, THEIR TRIGGERS FACTORS AND CURRENT
BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to analyze the triggering factors of social revolutions that have occurred
throughout human history and assess the possibility of their occurrence in contemporary
Brazil. By analyzing the triggering factors of social revolutions recorded throughout
human history, it can be seen that they occurred in several countries at times of despair
on the part of peoples subjected to the tyranny of governments, extreme social
inequalities, devastating economic crisis responsible for millions of unemployed and
hunger and misery of broad layers of the population such as the French Revolution of
1789 and the Russian Revolution of 1917 whose people took up arms and decided to
overthrow the existing political, economic and social structures. Other revolutions have
taken place with people taking up arms pursuing these same goals plus the struggle for
national independence from Japanese oppression, in the case of the Chinese Revolution
in 1949, and from the oppression of the United States, in the case of the Cuban Revolution
in 1959. Finally, there was another revolution moved only in the fight against tyranny and
for the ideals of freedom and national independence as the American Revolution of 1776,
also known as the War of Independence of the United States when the people took up
arms to eliminate the oppression exerted by England. From the analysis of the above-
mentioned revolutions, it is concluded that they occurred, in general, moved by the
struggle against the tyranny exercised by the dominant power, by the people's ideals of
freedom, against extreme social inequality, against the devastating economic crisis
responsible for millions of unemployed and against hunger that affected the lives of the
vast majority of the population and by national independence (Figure 1).
Figure 1- Triggering factors of social revolutions

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In Brazil today, all the triggering factors for a social revolution are not yet present. Only
the devastating economic crisis, extreme social inequalities and people's endemic hunger
are present in Brazil. There is a threat of the Bolsonaro government to exercise tyranny
in Brazil with the implantation of a dictatorship that can make the fight for freedoms the
order of the day and there is still no perception by the Brazilian people of the need to fight
for conquest of true national independence from the domination of international capital.
Tyranny is the main trigger of social revolution because it is an authoritarian form of
government in which a certain population is oppressed and has its free will annulled, as
shown in the following paragraphs. In tyrannical government, rulers do not respect
democratic freedoms and violate existing laws, using morally damnable practices to
remain in power. In tyranny, the government leader uses fear and terror as a form of
collective control, in order to perpetuate himself in power and exert social dominance.
The ideals of struggle for the freedom of the people are fundamentally manifested when
tyranny is established in a country. As will be seen in the following paragraphs, all the
great revolutions in history involved the struggle for the overthrow of tyrannical power.
Also highlighted as triggering factors of social revolution are the extreme social
inequality resulting from the economic exploitation of workers by the ruling classes, the
endemic hunger resulting from the poverty faced by the vast majority of the population
and the devastating economic crisis that were present in the French, Russian, Chinese and
Cuban revolutions, in addition to the tyranny exerted by the dominant power. The struggle
for national independence was another triggering factor of the American Revolution with
the war of independence of the United States against the oppression exerted by England,
the Chinese revolution against the oppression exerted by Japan during World War II and
the Cuban revolution against the oppression exerted by the U.S.
The American Revolution was unleashed because of the tyranny exercised by England
against the population of the United States, which gave rise to the desire for freedom by
the American people. The economic war between England and the North American
settlers’ triggered riots whose conflict was aggravated by the presence of British troops
sent to quell the protests. Several battles were fought against British tyranny that began
in March 1775 and culminated in the achievement of the emancipation of the United
States with the Declaration of Independence promulgated on July 4, 1776. The American
Revolution led by George Washington resulted in the formation of the United States that
it was the first great experience of a colonial country that freed itself from British
imperialism by force of arms. It is important to highlight the fact that the US War of
Independence was at the same time a social revolution because with its liberal content it
also served as a reference for the French Revolution and for the ideologues of democracy
in the world.
The French Revolution, started in 1789, with the fall of the Bastille, was motivated by
growing social inequality, the devastating economic crisis and endemic hunger suffered
by the vast majority of the population, being inspired by the ideals of the Enlightenment,
which was a European cultural movement of the century XVII and XVIII that sought to
generate political, economic and social changes in society at the time. The French
Revolution, as its name suggests, was a revolutionary cycle that took place in France in
1789 whose Jacobin government led by Robespierre was overthrown by the Thermidorian
reaction against political, economic and social changes for the benefit of the people in
1799. The French Revolution was a social and political movement whose main objective
was to overthrow the Ancien Régime and establish a democratic state that would represent
and ensure the rights of all citizens. In 1788 and 1789, France had bad harvests, the price

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of food increased, and many peasants could not afford it. Result: hunger increased. The
Parisian population took to the streets of the city to fight this situation on July 12, 1789.
The popular unrest did not subside and, on July 14, the people continued with their
uprising, attacking first the Arsenal of the Invalids and then it brought about the downfall
of the Bastille, which was an ancient fortress that had been turned into a prison for
political opponents of the French kings. With the news of the fall of the Bastille, the
revolution spread throughout France, precipitating transformations in the country and
causing thousands of people, in the cities and in the countryside, to rebel against the
French aristocracy and against the Ancien Regime. The French Revolution also caused
profound changes and marked the beginning of the fall of absolutism in Europe.
The Russian Revolution in 1917 resulted from the almost absolute lack of freedom in
Russia during the 19th century and the generalized destruction and famine caused by the
1st World War that motivated the organization of city and countryside workers to
overthrow the Russian monarchy and start a new stage in world history with the
construction of socialism that changed the history of humanity in the 20th century. The
Russian army participated in World War I much unprepared for the confrontation. The
consequences were defeats in several battles that left Russia weakened and economically
disorganized. In the countryside, there was a strong social tension, due to the large
concentration of land in the hands of the nobility. Russia was the last country in Europe
to abolish serfdom, in 1861. The tsarist regime repressed the opposition and the political
police controlled education, the press and the courts. Thousands of people who opposed
tsarism were sent to prison in Siberia convicted of political crimes. Living conditions
worsened, with hunger, unemployment and falling wages. The bourgeoisie did not benefit
either, as the power of capital was concentrated in the hands of bankers and big
businesspersons. The Russian Revolution of 1917 had two popular uprisings: the first in
February against the government of Tsar Nicholas II, and the second in October. In the
February Revolution, revolutionaries overthrew the monarchy and, in the October
Revolution, began to implement a government regime based on socialist ideas. On
November 7th (October 25th in the Gregorian calendar), workers and peasants, under the
leadership of Lenin, seized power.
The Chinese Revolution took place in two movements: the peasants' struggle for land and
the Chinese people's struggle for national independence. The Chinese Revolution counted
for its success with the existence of a conflict between the tyrannical Chinese State and
Civil Society in which the latter suffered the economic and social consequences related
to foreign domination, especially Japanese during World War II. In the city, the people
were hungry, and in the countryside, nothing was planted because there was no seed
available. The revolutionary forces, under the leadership of Mao Tse-Tung, fought the
tyranny of the Chinese government of Chiang Kai-shek, who later allied with him to
defeat their common enemy, Japan, and then militarily defeat the Chiang Kai-shek forces
and deploy the People's Republic of China. The main social force mobilized by Mao Tse-
Tung during the Chinese revolution was the peasants. After several battles against the
Chiang Kai-shek government, the Communists took over Beijing in 1949, and Mao Tse-
Tung was hailed as the new leader of the People's Republic of China. At the time, the
communists took power, with a China devastated by the long years of battle against
Japanese rule and a long Civil War. Mao Tse-Tung initiated agrarian reform, divided
large properties among peasants, and agricultural cooperatives replaced large land
holdings.
The Cuban Revolution took place in a country, Cuba, which, at the beginning of the 20th
century, was a colony of the United States. Since its independence process from Spain in

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1902, the island of Cuba has experienced serious political problems arising from the
installation of dictatorial governments and the US intervention in the country. Cuba
became an American protectorate. On several occasions, the United States carried out
military invasions of Cuba to ensure its hegemony in the country. In the 1950s, the
country's painful social and economic situation was aggravated by the installation in 1952
of the dictatorial regime imposed by General Fulgêncio Batista. Cuba adopted capitalism
with great dependence on the United States and was a country with great social
inequalities, as a large part of the population lived in extreme poverty. This whole context
generated a lot of dissatisfaction among the poorest strata of Cuban society, which were
the majority. Amid the excesses and subservience of the Fulgencio Batista government
towards the United States, an armed opposition movement gained strength within Cuba.
There were several strikes and revolts with the participation of the proletariat that joined
the student movement that was gaining strength. The 26th of July Revolutionary
Movement led by Fidel Castro outlined the plan to penetrate with a guerrilla focus through
the forests to the southwest of the island, at the foot of the Sierra Maestra, and to spread
the revolution, counting on popular support and the peasants who lived miserably there.
The rebel columns closed the encirclement and imposed defeat after defeat on Batista's
army. This fight finally ended up in 01/01/1959 when, in Havana, the last and definitive
fight was fought. The dictator Fulgencio Batista had already fled the country in the
previous dawn, along with the top of his government. Upon assuming power in Cuba, the
revolutionary government implemented socialism by nationalizing banks, companies and
sugar refineries, promoted agrarian reform with the expropriation of large properties,
nationalized the rest of the industrial sector controlled by the United States and carried
out reforms deep in the education and health systems. Initially, Cuban revolutionaries
tended to follow an independent political line as a country not aligned with the bipolar
order installed after World War II. However, the political pressure exerted by the
government of John Kennedy of the United States ended up favoring Cuba's
rapprochement with the Soviet bloc.
It is from Wladimir Lenin, great leader of the socialist revolution in Russia in 1917, the
assertion that the outbreak of a social revolution will only occur “when those from above
cannot continue to govern as before and those from below do not want to continue being
governed as before”. This situation happened in the American, French, Russian, Chinese
and Cuban revolutions. If we take into account the current situation in Brazil, it can be
said that "those at the top cannot continue governing as before" because the current
Brazilian government with Bolsonaro faces insurmountable difficulties in managing the
economy that is stagnant due to the structural economic problems aggravated by the new
coronavirus pandemic reasons why he seeks to govern dictatorially to carry out political,
economic and social changes that serve the interests of the ruling classes that profoundly
affect the interests of the subaltern classes, that is, those at the bottom of the social
hierarchy in Brazil. In turn, at the present time, not all those who belong to the lower part
of the Brazilian social hierarchy do not yet demonstrate a refusal to continue being
governed as before within the framework of the savage capitalism in force, despite the
fact that Brazil brings together some triggering factors of the great past revolutions:
extreme social inequality, the devastating economic crisis aggravated by the pandemic
with millions of unemployed and the growing endemic hunger that affects the lives of the
vast majority of the population.
The tyranny of the dominant power in Brazil is manifested mainly at the level of the
economy with the adoption by the Bolsonaro government of neoliberal economic
measures that result in mass unemployment and at the political-institutional level with the

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adoption of political measures that imply the loss of social rights by subaltern classes and
threats to representative democracy that, little by little, has been felt by the vast majority
of the population of Brazil. Resistance against the economic, political and social tyranny
of the Bolsonaro government that has been assumed within the parliament and judiciary
by progressive parties and civil society organizations and with street demonstrations,
despite the limitations imposed by the new coronavirus pandemic, they translate the ideals
of the struggle for freedoms in Brazil against the tyranny exercised by the dominant power
in Brazil. The fight for freedoms will advance even more if tyranny is imposed by force
in the country with the implantation of a dictatorship. The struggle for national
independence from the oppression exercised by international capital is not yet present in
Brazil because the holders of economic power in Brazil are partners of international
capital and among the people there is a false perception that Brazil is an independent
country. This struggle will only be present when the Brazilian population becomes aware
of the dispossession that Brazil suffers from international capital, that is, when it becomes
aware that Brazil's economic, scientific and technological backwardness results from the
exploitation carried out in the country by international capital.
If Jair Bolsonaro's intention of establishing a dictatorship in Brazil under his command is
fulfilled, the ideals of struggle against tyranny and for the freedom of the people, which,
together with the struggle for economic progress and against social inequality and hunger,
will grow rapidly and, also, by national independence, the conditions for the outbreak of
a social revolution in Brazil will be created. Now, Bolsonaro is cornered by the failure of
his government to manage the economy and fight the new coronavirus pandemic with the
unprecedented worsening of the social conditions of the vast majority of the population
facing mass unemployment, hunger and misery. The accusations against Bolsonaro of
crimes against public health, environment and democracy in Brazil and to cover up
corruption in government could contribute to his removal from power through
impeachment. Bolsonaro knows that, being out of power, he will pay for the crimes he
has been practicing before the Brazilian justice and the International Criminal Court for
crimes against humanity in dealing with the pandemic. Like any cornered animal,
everything suggests that Bolsonaro will try to carry out a coup d'état and implement a
dictatorship with the support of military police, militias, sectors of the armed forces and
their supporters. If this were to happen, tyranny would be installed to the full in Brazil.
If tyranny settles in Brazil with a dictatorship led by Bolsonaro, we will have completed
the conditions for the emergence of a social revolution in Brazil because tyranny would
add to extreme social inequalities, the devastating economic crisis responsible for
millions of unemployed, hunger and misery of broad layers of the population and the
dispossession suffered by the country of international capital. This social revolution will
only be victorious, however, if a broad, democratic and popular front is constituted with
a common government program to carry out structural changes under a unified leadership
in the struggle with the presence of respected and trusted leaders by the Brazilian people.
The scenario of political confrontation that is being drawn up for the future of Brazil with
the Bolsonaro dictatorship and, in its counterpart, the social revolution, differs profoundly
from the desirable scenario of building social peace that requires political, economic and
social concertation that would be the path that would prevent a bloodbath in Brazil
resulting from a civil war that could occur if Bolsonaro implements a dictatorship in
Brazil.
The most likely trend is that Bolsonaro and his allies will attempt a coup d'état to be
carried out before the next elections and, if they are defeated in those elections, especially
if the left and center-left political forces take power in Brazil, would take place after the

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2022 elections. If this coup d’état is successful, the tyranny to be exercised by Bolsonaro
and his allies could trigger a civil war that would make the social revolution be placed on
the agenda in Brazil, fueling the desire for fight for the democratic freedoms of broad
sectors of the population. To avoid civil war in Brazil, civil society organizations,
progressive parties and political leaders must act responsibly to build a broad, democratic
and popular front that is capable of defeating Bolsonaro and its allies in the 2022 elections
and prepare, too, to block the possibility of Bolsonaro and those in power using violence
to stay in power at the cost, even, of civil war.
Therefore, to avoid civil war and defeat the tyranny exercised by the dominant power,
combat extreme social inequality, the devastating economic crisis and hunger that affect
the lives of the vast majority of the population and achieve true independence for Brazil,
it is necessary that there is the organization of a broad democratic and popular front
supported by a common program of political, economic and social changes for Brazil,
with the participation of broad sectors of the population and leaders strongly supported
by the people. The starting point for organizing the broad front is to have a common
minimum program of political, economic and social changes, without which all
democratic and progressive forces in the country will not be unified. The great democratic
and progressive leaders in Brazil need to urgently articulate themselves to build this
solution to the serious problems experienced by the Brazilian nation at the time. This
action is urgent. These are the teachings of history.
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ALCOFORADO. Fernando. As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais
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BLANCO, Richard L.; Sanborn, Paul J.. The American Revolution, 1775–1783: An
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COGGIOLA, Osvaldo. A Revolução Chinesa. São Paulo, Editora Moderna, 1986.
__________________. Revolução Cubana. São Paulo, Xama, 1998.
FERRO, Marc. Revolução Russa de 1917. São Paulo: Perspectiva, 2004.
GAXOTTE, Pierre. La Révolution Française. Paris: Librairie Arthème Fayard, 1957.
KARNAL, Leandro (org.) História dos Estados Unidos: Das origens ao século XXI. São
Paulo: Contexto, 2007.
LENIN, Vladimir. O Estado e a Revolução. São Paulo: Boitempo Editorial, 2017.
POMAR, W. A Revolução Chinesa. São Paulo: UNESP, 2003.
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WADE, Rex A. The Russian Revolution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 81, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System,
member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional

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Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of
strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the
books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem
Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os
condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de
Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora
Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos
na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social
Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,
Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica,
Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate
ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores
Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no
Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba,
2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua
convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro
para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).