Learning to thrive in a world full of barbarians, aliens, and disruption

1. FutureShape –
Frontiers of
Business and
Technology
Learning To Thrive in a
World of Barbarians, Aliens
and Disruption
Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future Research
Deloitte/ IMI
Best Managed Companies Symposium
Dublin - March 6th 2015
rohit@fastfuture.com
www.fastfuture.com

2. When Worlds Collide
Contents
• Presentation p. 3
• About Fast Future p. 38
• Image Sources p. 52

3. Can we Change our DNA?
Play by the
Rules of the
Game
Create a
New Game

4. ‘Future Proofed’ Organisations
Work on 3 Horizons in Parallel
4-10+ Years
Creating
the Future
1-3 Years
Search for
Growth
1-12 Months
Operational
Excellence

5. Future Game Changers?

6. ‘Magic’ and Science are Blurring
Mapping and
Uploading the
Human Brain
Cognitive,
Genetic, Physical
and Electronic
Enhancement of
the Human Body
The biological era is emerging

7. Embracing the Transformative Role of IT
Customer
Centric
‘Hive Mind’
Talent:
Develop and
Leverage
Staff
Innovate to
Differentiate
Re-engineer
Processes

8. Technology Timeline

9. Our Technologies are Evolving From
the Desktop...

10. ...to Portable and Mobile ...

11. ...Wearable...

12. ...Embedded...

13. ... And Connected to an Immersive Multi-Sensory
/ Multi-Sensor ‘Internet of Everything’

14. Artificial Intelligence

15. Technology is Enabling New
Business Behaviours and Models

16. Disruptive
Innovation is
the Holy Grail

17. Intense Competition
Strategy, ICT, Insight, Ideas, Responsiveness, Innovation, Financing,
Structure, Business Models, New Entrants and Talent

18. Magic – E.g. One Time Insurance
• Smartphone service
• One day contracts
• Premiums start around US$4
• E.g:
• Sports and Leisure
• Golf (Hole in one protection)
• Domestic and Overseas
Travel

19. Rise of the Super Heroes

20. New Paradigms
to Challenge Old
Orthodoxies
e.g. Hyperloop

21. Barbarians at the Gate

22. Aliens
in our
Midst

23. Production is
Being
Democratised
e.g. 3D/4D Printing

24. Co-Creation to Reshape Industries

25. An Era of Exponential Growth
AirBnB Hotels 90x more listings per employee
GitHub Software 109x more repositories per employee
Local Motors
Automotive
1000x cheaper to produce new car model, 5-22x
faster process for a car to produce (depending on
vehicle)
Quirky Consumer Goods 10x faster product development (29 vs 300 days)
Google Ventures
Investments
2.5x more investments in early stage start-ups,
10x faster though design process
Valve Gaming 30x more market cap per employee
Tesla Automotive 30x more market cap per employee
Tangerine (formerly ING Direct
Canada) Banking
7x more customers per employee
4x more deposits per customer

26. Strati – First 3D Printed Car (Local Motors)

27. Exponential Market Cap Improvement
Age (years) 2011 valuation 2014 valuation Increase
Haier 30 $19 billion $60 billion 3x
Valve 18 $1.5 billion $4.5 billion 3x
Google 17 $150 billion $400 billion 2.5x
Uber 7 $2 billion $40 billion 20x
AirBnB 6 $2 billion $10 billion 5x
Github 6 $ 500 million
(est.)
$7 billion 14x
Waze 6 $ 25 million $1 billion (2013) 50x
Qirky 5 $ 50 million $2 billion 40x
Snapchat 3 0 $10 billion 10,000x +

29. Buying Cars with Bitcoin –
Lamborghini, Tesla Model S, Jeep

30. Assets: ‘Usership’ vs. Ownership

31. Innovation: e.g. Kickstarter.com

32. Alternative Revenue Models E.g. Auctions
$5190
(£3088)
$14,770
(£8791.50)
$136
(£81)

33. New Masters of the Universe

34. Mindset - Where can we be
Disruptors, Aliens and Barbarians?

35. Virtual Collaboration
Novel and Adaptive Thinking Social Intelligence
Trans Disciplinarity
New Media Literacy
Computational Thinking
Design MindsetCross Cultural Competency
Sense MakingCognitive Load Management

36. …or …
Conclusion –
be Consumed
by Our Fears

37. ..Embrace Them