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Il Sole 24 ORE  This document has been prepared by UBS Limited   Case study NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY ITS AUTHORS INDEPENDENTLY OF IL SOLE 24 ORE S.P.A. (THE " COMPANY "), , MEDIOBANCA - BANCA DI CREDITO FINANZIARIO S.P.A. (" MEDIOBANCA "), AND UBS LIMITED (" UBS ") OR ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE UNDERWRITING GROUP OR ANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AFFILIATES IN THE PROPOSED OFFERING (THE " OFFERING ") OF PREFERRED SHARES ( AZIONI DI CATEGORIA SPECIALE ) OF THE COMPANY. UBS LTD, WHO MAY ACT IN CONNECTION WITH THE OFFERING, HAS NO AUTHORITY WHATSOEVER TO GIVE ANY INFORMATION OR MAKE ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY ON BEHALF OF THE COMPANY, MEDIOBANCA, UBS, ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE UNDERWRITING GROUP OR ANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AFFILIATES IN CONNECTION WITH THE OFFERING OR OTHERWISE. IN PARTICULAR, THE OPINIONS AND PROJECTIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE ENTIRELY THOSE OF UBS LTD AS PART OF ITS NORMAL RESEARCH ACTIVITY AND NOT AS A MANAGER OR UNDERWRITER OF ANY OFFER OR AS AN AGENT OF, OR FINANCIAL ADVISER, TO THE COMPANY, MEDIOBANCA, UBS, ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE UNDERWRITING GROUP OR ANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AFFILIATES OR ANY OTHER PERSON. UBS LTD HAS NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED THE INFORMATION GIVEN IN THIS DOCUMENT. ACCORDINGLY, NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR FAIRNESS OF THE INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT. NONE OF UBS LTD, THE COMPANY, MEDIOBANCA, UBS, ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE UNDERWRITING GROUP OR ANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AFFILIATES, DIRECTORS, MEMBERS, OFFICERS OR EMPLOYEES OR ANY OTHER PERSON ACCEPTS ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING FROM ANY USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENTS OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT (EXCEPT IN RESPECT OF WILFUL DEFAULT). THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF ANY OFFER FOR SALE OR SUBSCRIPTION OF OR SOLICITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES NOR SHALL IT OR ANY PART OF IT FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER. THE OFFER SHALL BE MADE BY THE FINAL OFFERING MEMORANDUM TO BE PUBLISHED IN DUE COURSE IN CONNECTION WITH THE OFFERING. ANY APPLICATION FOR PREFERRED SHARES IN THE COMPANY SHOULD BE MADE SOLELY ON THE BASIS OF THE INFORMATION TO BE CONTAINED IN THE FINAL OFFERING MEMORANDUM. THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN FORWARDED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED OR PASSED ON, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, TO ANY OTHER PERSON OR PUBLISHED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, FOR ANY PURPOSE. NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY COPY OR PORTION HEREOF MAY BE TAKEN, TRANSMITTED OR DISTRIBUTED, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN AUSTRALIA, JAPAN, CANADA OR THE UNITED STATES OR TO ANY RESIDENT THEREOF. THE DISTRIBUTION OF THIS DOCUMENT IN OTHER JURISDICTIONS MAY BE RESTRICTED BY LAW AND PERSONS INTO WHOSE POSSESSION THIS DOCUMENT COMES SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT, AND OBSERVE, ANY SUCH RESTRICTIONS. ANY FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE LAWS OF ANY SUCH OTHER JURISDICTIONS.  FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS PARAGRAPH, THE TERM "UNITED STATES" HAS THE MEANING GIVEN TO IT IN REGULATION S UNDER THE US SECURITIES ACT OF 1933. BY ACCEPTING THIS DOCUMENT YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS. THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR DISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM ONLY TO PERSONS FALLING WITHIN ARTICLE 19, ARTICLE 47, ARTICLE 49 AND ARTICLES 50 OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES AND MARKETS ACT 2000 (FINANCIAL PROMOTION) ORDER 2005 AND ONLY WHERE THE CONDITIONS CONTAINED IN THOSE ARTICLES HAVE BEEN, OR WILL AT THE RELEVANT TIME BE, SATISFIED.  THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL AND IS BEING SUPPLIED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, FURTHER DISTRIBUTED TO ANY OTHER PERSON OR PUBLISHED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, FOR ANY PURPOSE. THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR DISTRIBUTION IN ITALY ONLY TO PROFESSIONAL AND/OR QUALIFIED INVESTORS AS DEFINED IN ANY AND ALL APPLICABLE SECURITIES LAWS AND REGULATIONS. THEREFORE THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO (I) A MEMBER OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC; (II) DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS, THROUGH WHICH INFORMATION IS, OR IS LIKELY TO BECOME AVAILABLE TO A LARGE NUMBER OF PERSONS; OR (III) INDIVIDUALS OR ENTITIES FALLING OUTSIDE THE DEFINITIONS OF PROFESSIONAL AND/OR QUALIFIED INVESTORS AS SPECIFIED ABOVE.
Table of contents ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Il Sole 24 ORE — Story in a nutshell ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Shareholders and planned offer ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  UBS estimates Notes: 1 Confindustria only holds ordinary shares  2  All Shares held by Il Sole 24 ORE and the market following the Global Offering are special shares 100.0 133.3 35.1 100.0 98.2 Total 26.3 (30.2) 35.1(40.3) – 35.1 – – – – Market  2 6.2 (2.3) 8.2 (3.0) – – – 8.4 8.2 – Il Sole 24 ORE  2 67.5 _ 90.0 – _ 91.6 _ 90.0 Confindustria  1 % Special sh. Ordinary sh. Special sh. Ordinary Sh. % Special Sh. Ordinary Sh. m. shares Number of shares Post-Offer (and greenshoe) Offered shares Number of share Pre-Offer
SECTION 1 The Company NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
The businesses Two core divisions, a strong captive adv arm, two minor businesses Consumer & Financial Publishing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Advertising (“System”) ,[object Object],[object Object],Professional Publishing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Radio & Multimedia ,[object Object],[object Object]
Contribution by division in perspective ,[object Object],Two core divisions, a strong captive adv arm, two minor businesses Revenues (€m) EBITDA (€m) Source: UBS estimates ,[object Object],Source: UBS estimates Source: UBS estimates 8 Daily (Milan and Rome) End-2006 24 Minuti Free press Quarterly 2007 House 24 Monthly 2006 I Viaggi del sole Bi-monthly 2006 Nova 24 Review Monthly 2006 English 24 8 Monthly 2001 Ventiquattro Magazines 63 Irregular (spot or collections) 2005 Books, CDs Add-ons 216 Daily 1965 Il Sole 24 ORE (and related inserts) Newspaper Revenues 2007E (€m) Frequency Launch Titles Product 51 51 50 40 13 o/w advertising 186 181 176 156 133 o/w subs./circ. 238 232 227 195 147 Total 8 8 8 8 8 Education/training 48 45 43 28 16 Software solution 85 84 83 69 36 Business Media 96 94 92 90 86 Tax & legal 2010E 2009E 2008E 2007E 2006 (€m)
Consumer & Financial Publishing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Different from most of others, generalist and financial ones Subscriptions/total circ. Total circ. (000s copies/day) EBIT margin of key peers Source: UBS estimates
Professional Publishing ,[object Object],The growing segment of the industry ,[object Object],[object Object],Material room for consolidation Company war chest is €200–250  million pre-offer and >€600  million  post offer Organic growth key peers EBIT margin of Il Sole 24 ORE vs. avg key peers Source: UBS estimates Source: UBS estimates
Radio ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],A great commercial success with limited earnings upside
Multimedia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Multimedia division revenues (€m)—mix changing towards online Source: UBS estimates A transforming division 1 2 3
SECTION 2 Market Outlook NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
Market Outlook ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Italian advertising market Source: UBS estimates The add-on products revenues: key players Freesheet titles circulation Three trends to outline in Italy: 1,075 E-Polis, CdS Anteprima 3,238 total 860 Metro 1,118 Leggo 860 City 400 24MInuti 2006E (000s copies/day)
Newspaper market ,[object Object],Financial titles should have ‘easier life’ ,[object Object],Outlook of the Italian newspaper market FT circulation vs. UK market (000s copies) WSJ circulation vs. US market (000s copies) Source: UBS estimates, Company data Source:  UBS estimates, UPA, Nielsen Metro, Caltagirone Ed, RCS Media Group, E-Polis +9%   /   +10% +17.7% € 80m (all adv) Freesheet RCS Media Group, Edit L’ Espresso, La Stampa +4.5%   /   +5% +5.3% € 230m (all adv) Magazines  RCS Media Group, Edit, L’ Espresso, Il Giornale -10%   /   -11% -3% € 475m (all circ) Add-ons – +1.7%   /   +3.8% +1.9% € 1.6bn –  Advertising – +0%   /   +0% +0.6% € 1.2bn –  C irculation RCS Media Group, Edit L’ Espresso, Caltagirone Ed, Class Ed +1%   /   +2.2% +1.3% € 2.8bn Newspaper RCS MediaGroup, Edit L’Espresso +0%/+0.8% +1.3% € 3.6bn Newspaper Competitors Outlook (2006–09E CAGR   /   2007   /   06 y   /   y) Recent growth (2004–06 CAGR) Mkt size (2006)
Professional Publishing Two thirds of newspaper mkt, but room for consolidation Outlook of the Italian professional publishing market Source: UBS estimates, UPA, Nielsen Organic growth of key intl peers vs. Italian mkt and Il Soler 24 ORE Source: UBS estimates ,[object Object],[object Object],SDA Bocconi +2.5% +4.5% € 380m Education Zucchetti, Wolters Kluwer, Team System +2% +1% € 1bn Software (relevant segments) Reed Elsevier, Tecniche Nuove +0% +0% € 400m (incl adv) Business media (technical) Wolters Kluwer, Giuffre’, Maggioli +3% +3% € 570m Tax and legal Wolters Kluwer, Giuffre’, Maggioli +2% +1.8% € 2.3bn Professional publishing Competitors Outlook (2006–09E CAGR) Recent growth (2004–06 CAGR) Mkt size (2006)
SECTION 3 Group Strategy NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
Recent Events Shifted gear: a few actions are fuelling earnings growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Track record in M&A The multiples paid so far are not demanding Deals announced in 2006–07: avg EV / EBITDA paid is 8.2x Source: Company data, UBS estimates. All in €m if not stated 10 72 85 Total committed 0 1 nm 1 5 nm 5 30% Diamante Q4 07 0 0 nm 2 3 0 3 55% Alinari Q4 07 (E) 10 71 8.2 82 Only controlling stakes Total YTD 2 10 6.7 13 13 (3) 16 100% STR Aug-07 0 0 nm 1 3 nm 3 30% Blogosfere Jul-07 2 13 6.5 12 12 4 8 100% Data Ufficio Jul-07 5 42 8.6 47 47 6 40 100% GPP Mar-07 0 2 37.5 2 4 0 4 57% Motta Arti Grafiche Dec-06 0 2 13.5 4 4 0 4 100% Motta Architettura Oct-06 0 2 nm 3 22 nm 22 15% El Economista Feb-06 2006 EBITDA 2006 revenues EV /  EBITDA (x) Impact net debt EV Net debt (cash) Equity value Stake  Target Timing
Use of proceeds—Re-investment scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: UBS estimates 5.7% 6.2% 6.3% 6.7% EFCF yield 19.9 18.4 18.3 16.9 PE (x) 11.2 9.0 8.9 8.5 EV / EBITDA (x) 65 70 62 67 EFCF (2008E) 57 62 54 59 Net profit (2008E) 140 152 135 145 EBITDA (2008E) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Net debt / EBITDA ( 283 ) ( 310 ) ( 271 ) ( 294 ) Net cash (debt) 1 , 133 1 , 133 994 994 Equity 1 , 346 1 , 372 1 , 204 1 , 227 EV Re-leverage scenario (2x net debt / EBITDA) 5.4% 5.8% 5.9% 6.3% EFCF yield 21.3 19.6 19.5 18.1 PE (x) 9.5 8.9 8.8 8.3 EV / EBITDA (x) 61 66 59 63 EFCF (2008E) 53 58 51 55 Net profit (2008E) 124 134 119 128 EBITDA (2008E) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Net debt / EBITDA ( 122 ) ( 135 ) ( 115 ) ( 127 ) Net cash (debt) 1 , 133 1 , 133 994 994 Equity 1 , 184 1 , 197 1 , 048 1 , 060 EV Re-leverage scenario (1x net debt / EBITDA) 5.1% 5.5% 5.6% 6.0% EFCF yield 22.8 21.0 20.9 19.4 PE (x) 9.9 9.2 9.0 8.4 EV / EBITDA (x) 58 62 56 59 EFCF (2008E) 50 54 48 51 Net profit (2008E) 108 117 104 111 EBITDA (2008E) n m n m nm nm Net debt / EBITDA 40 40 40 40 Net cash (debt) 1 , 133 1 , 133 994 994 Equity 1 , 073 1 , 073 935 935 EV 351 351 308 308 Proceeds re-invested 100% proceeds re-invested (€m) 4.6% 4.8% 5.1% 5.3% EFCF yield 25.4 24.3 23.1 22.1 PE (x) 9.9 9.5 8.9 8.5 EV / EBITDA (x) 52 55 51 53 EFCF  45 47 43 45 Net profit (2008E) 90 95 88 92 EBITDA (2008E) n m n m nm nm Net debt / EBITDA 216 216 194 194 Net cash (debt) 1 , 133 1 , 133 994 994 Equity 898 898 781 781 EV 175 175 154 154 Proceeds re-invested 50% proceeds re-invested (€m) 10x 8x 10x 8x Multiple of target companies (EV / EBITDA) Top of UBS range (€351m) Bottom of UBS range (€308m) Il Sole 24 ORE valuation (offer proceeds)
SECTION 4 Forecasts  (pre-money) NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
Key drivers The key  drivers  and risk factors of top line and margins Source: UBS estimates See above plus web-based adv exposure Advertising: Consolidation of clients - Increasing competition Price pressure - financial info services Strong online advertising - online Multimedia: Premium listeners to be fully  “ monetized ” Shortage of frequencies - Cost inflation Growing listeners Radio: Synergies from integration of new businesses Scale effect + Smoother tradition to new media  (web,   electronic) Impact of acquisitions M& A + More resilient than consumer publishers Organic growth above consumer publishing Professional publishing : Free press due to break-even in 2009 / 10E Advertising upside from new titles and free   press Launch cost decreasing - Saturation of the add-on segment Free press launched in November 2006, gaining   momentum - New entrants in il sole 24 ore niches “ Young ”  titles (mostly launched in 2006–07) - Magazines / free press Product innovation (inserts) Cost cutting plan Circulation and readership weakness Full colour impact Increasing competition from smaller players ( Italia   Oggi ) + High  “ professional ”  readership Advertising re-positioning Weakening advertising from financial services   segment + Higher than peers’ subscription revenues Cover price gap to  “ generalists ” - Newspaper Consumer and financial publishing: Potential risks Visibility issues (+ / -) Growth drivers Division
Revenues 2006–10E CAGR is +6%, o / w 3% organic Source: UBS estimates 2.3% 2.1% 7.0% 14.3% 5.1% 6.0% % change 653 638 625 584 511 486 458 Total group  4.2% 4.6% 6.6% 14.9% 1.6% 1.4% % change ( 189 ) ( 181 ) ( 173 ) ( 163 ) ( 141 ) ( 139 ) -137 Corporates & intra-group adj. 2.7% 2.7% 6.9% 14.5% 4.3% 4.9% % change 842 819 798 746 652 625 596 Total gross 6.2% 2.8% ( 1.3 ) % ( 6.3 ) % ( 9.2 ) % ( 9.3 ) % % change 43 41 40 40 43 47 52 Multimedia 5.0% 4.0% 7.0% 12.9% 9.7% 0.4% % change 16 16 15 14 12 11 11 Radio 4.4% 4.8% 6.7% 11.0% 1.4% 0.4% % change 236 226 216 203 183 180 179 System (advertising) 2.4% 2.4% 16.1% 33.2% 2.0% 1.4% % change 238 232 227 195 147 144 142 Professional publishing 1.1% 1.3% 2.1% 10.0% 10.2% 14.8% % change 308 305 301 295 268 243 212 Consumer & fin. publishing 2010E 2009E 2008E 2007E 2006 2005 2004 ( €m )
Costs ,[object Object],Reducing cost of launches of magazines and freesheet   Source: UBS estimates 25.6% 25.6% 25.4% 24.5% 26.5% 27.6% 26.6% % revenues 167 163 159 143 135 134 122 Cost of labour 8.1% 8.2% 8.4% 8.8% 10.1% 10.5% 10.1% % revenues 53 52 52 51 52 51 46 Other operating costs 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 2.0% 1.7% 2.8% 2.4% % revenues 9 9 9 12 9 14 11 Contributions & others 12.3% 12.3% 12.5% 12.9% 14.3% 14.8% 12.9% % revenues 80 78 78 75 73 72 59 o / w printing & distr. 46.5% 46.5% 46.9% 47.9% 48.7% 48.2% 46.7% % revenues 303 297 293 280 249 234 214 Costs of services 7.8% 7.8% 8.0% 8.7% 5.5% 5.6% 6.4% % revenues 51 50 50 51 28 27 30 o / w paper 8.8% 8.8% 9.0% 9.7% 6.6% 6.8% 7.6% % revenues 57 56 56 56 34 33 35 Raw materials 2010E 2009E 2008E 2007E 2006 2005 2004 ( €m )
Financials ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],FCF growing by 2.6x in three years Source: UBS estimates Source: UBS estimates High tax rate vs. peers (2007E) Tax rate, 2004 – 10E Group capex and FCF outlook
SECTION 5 Valuation NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
Stock positioning A balanced positioning between plus and minus ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Plus Minus Italian publishers (affected by relatively high tax rates) trades at premium on P / Es and small discount on EV / multiples  DMGT example suggests that limited voting rights do not necessarily hit the stock rating
Peers ,[object Object],[object Object],K ey peer group includes Pearson, Wolters, Reed, Espresso Source: UBS estimates 11.4% 9.8% 11.8 13.1 8.6 10.6 7.8 9.2 Consumer publishers 7.5% 6.7% 15.0 16.3 9.2 10.4 7.9 8.7 Avg selected consumer publ. 8.8% 7.6% 13.9 15.8 9.5 11.0 8.3 9.5 8 , 801 765 Pearson 6.1% 5.8% 16.0 16.7 8.8 9.5 7.2 7.7 1 , 525 3.5 L'Espresso 7.6% 6.9% 12.9 15.7 10.0 11.1 9.0 10.0 Professional publishers 7.3% 6.6% 12.9 14.5 10.8 12.0 9.4 10.4 Avg selected prof. publishers 8.3% 7.5% 12.2 13.4 9.66 10.9 8.6 9.6 6 , 406 21.7 Wolters-Kluwer 6.3% 5.7% 13.7 15.5 11.9 13.2 10.2 11.3 19 , 570 601 Reed Elsevier plc 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E (€m) (local) EFCF yield P / E (adj.) EV / EBITA EV / EBITDA Mkt cap Price
EV Multiples – SOTP  Outcome is equity value at €751–729  million  (pre-money) Source: UBS estimates SOTP based on mkt EV multiples Notes: 1 Radio is valued on the back of frequencies cost 2 Mostly represented by the stakes in Borsa Italiana and Ecoprensa  729 751 Equity (pre-money) 19 19 Peripheral assets   2 40 40 Net cash (debt) as of December 2008E 669 692 11.3x 59.3 9.5x 72.9 Total group EV ( 164 ) ( 86 ) 11.3x ( 14.5 ) 9.5x ( 9.1 ) Corporate costs 833 778 11.3x 73.7 9.5x 81.9 Total divisions % of group 1 4 7.0 0.1 5.0x 0.8 Multimedia 75 67 nm 0.0 nm 0.7 Radio   1 833 774 11.3x 73.6 9.6x 80.4 Total core divisions 509 447 12.0x 42.5 10.4x 42.8 Professional publishing 323 327 10.4x 31.1 8.7x 37.6 Consumer & financial publishing EV (driven by EV / EBITA) EV (driven by EV / EBITDA) Multiple EBITA Multiple    EBITDA ( €m )
P / E and DCF P / E suggests equity value of €687  million , DCF €737–782   million (pre-money) Source: UBS estimates Equity value driven by peers’ P / E Source: UBS estimates DCF —k ey assumptions and outcomes (€m) Notes: 1 Equal to 2007E P / E divided by 2006–09E adj. EPS CAGR. Target P / E and PEG are weighted on the basis of contribution to growth Notes: 1 Mostly represented by the stakes in Borsa Italiana and in Ecoprensa 1.7x 1.7x 1.5x 2.7x PEG  1 € 687m 28.5x 17% € 24.1m 16.4x 16.5x 16.7x P   /   E (UBS adj.) Equity 200 7E  multiples EPS CAGR (2007–10E) Adj. net profit (2007E) (15 consumer/ 85 prof.) 2007E 2007E II Sole 24 ORE Weighted Professional publ.  Consumer publ.  782 770 755 737 Equity value (pre-money) 19 19 19 19 Peripheral assets  1 40 40 40 40 Net cash (Dec. 2008E) 722 711 696 677 Entity value 8.8x 8.6x 8.4x 8.2x Implied exit multiple (EV / EBITDA) 488 477 463 445 Terminal value 235 234 233 232 PV of CF 2009–15E 8.08% 8.17% 8.29% 8.45% WACC  15% 10% 5% 0% Net debt / EV
Valuation range (pre-money) ,[object Object],Pre-money range is €687–782  million Source: UBS estimates 6.5% 5.9% 19.0x 21.2x 9.7x 10.6x 8.0x 8.6x 687 627 2007E PEG at 1.7x  P / E adj. to growth 6.1% 5.5% 20.2x 22.5x 10.4x 11.3x 8.5x 9.2x 729 669 EV / EBITA driven 5.9% 5.4% 20.8x 23.2x 10.7x 11.7x 8.8x 9.5x 751 692 EV / EBITDA driven SOTP 6.0% 5.5% 20.4x 22.8x 10.5x 11.4x 8.6x 9.3x 737 677 U n-leveraged/WACC 8.45% 5.7% 5.2% 21.7x 24.2x 11.2x 12.2x 9.2x 9.9x 782 722 15% debt/EV; WACC 8.08% DCF 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E pre-money pre-money Drivers / assumptions Methodology EFCF yield P / E (adj.) EV / EBITA EV / EBITDA Equity EV ( €m )
A break-up scenario ,[object Object],[object Object],Another invaluable and overvalued  “ trophy ” ? Source: UBS estimates Break-up value Recent deals in the sector Source: UBS estimates Note: 1 Mostly represented by the stakes in Borsa Italiana and in Ecoprensa 1 , 166 1 , 138 Equity (pre-money) 19 19 Peripheral assets  1 40 40 Net cash (debt) December   2008E 1 , 107 1 , 079 18.7x 59.3 14.8x 72.9 Total Group EV ( 271 ) ( 134 ) 18.7x ( 14.5 ) 14.8x ( 9.1 ) Corporate costs 1 , 378 1 , 213 18.7x 73.7 14.8x 81.9 Total divisions 1 4 7.0x 0.1 5.0x 0.8 Multimedia 75 67 nm 0.0 nm 0.7 Radio 689 621 16.2x 42.5 14.5x 42.8 Professional publishing 689 588 22.1x 31.1 15.6x 37.6 Consumer & financial publishing EV (driven by EV / EBITA) EV (driven by EV / EBITDA) Multiple EBITA Multiple EBITDA ( €m ) 24.9 13.9 3.6 € 1100m 2007 RCS Mediagroup Recoletos  30.3 20.8 3.3 € 941m 2004 Retos Cartera Recoletos 20.0 18.0 1.9 c€240m 2007 LVMH Les Echos 16.2 14.5 3.4 c€250m 2005 Wolters Kluwer De Agostini 21.5 15.0 2.4 $5300m 2007 News Corp Dow Jones EV / EBITA (x) EV / EBITDA (x) EV / Sales (x) Price Date Bidder Asset
The post-money scenario  ,[object Object],[object Object],Re-investment assumptions are key for P / E and EFCF yield Source: UBS estimates. Table assumes full exercise of over-allotment (greenshoe) and that 100% of proceeds are re-invested at an average post synergy EV / EBITDA multiple of 9x. The 2008E EFCF is restated for €14 million one-off capital expenditures Source: UBS estimates. Table assumes full exercise of over-allotment (greenshoe). The 2008E EFCF is restated for €14  million one-off capital expenditures 6.2% 5.8% 18.5x 20.2x 9.7x 10.4x 8.2x 8.7x 994 935 2007E PEG at 1.7x  P / E adj.  to growth 6.0% 5.5% 19.3x 21.0x 10.1x 10.8x 8.6x 9.1x 1 , 055 996 EV / EBITA driven 5.8% 5.4% 19.7x 21.4x 10.3x 11.1x 8.7x 9.3x 1 , 088 1 , 029 EV / EBITDA driven SOTP 5.9% 5.5% 19.4x 21.1x 10.2x 10.9x 8.6x 9.2x 1 , 067 1 , 008 un-leveraged / WACC 8.45% 5.7% 5.3% 20.2x 21.9x 10.6x 11.4x 9.0x 9.6x 1 , 133 1 , 073 15% debt / EV; WACC 8.08% DCF 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E post-money  Post-money Drivers / assumptions Methodology EFCF yield P / E (adj.) EV / EBITA EV / EBITDA Equity EV ( €m ) 5.1% 4.7% 23.4x 25.8x 9.7x 10.6x 8.0x 8.6x 994 627 2007E PEG at 1.7x P / E adj. to growth 4.8% 4.4% 24.6x 27.1x 10.4x 11.3x 8.5x 9.2x 1 , 055 669 EV / EBITA driven 4.7% 4.3% 25.2x 27.8x 10.7x 11.7x 8.8x 9.5x 1 , 088 692 EV / EBITDA driven SOTP 4.8% 4.4% 24.8x 27.4x 10.5x 11.4x 8.6x 9.3x 1 , 067 677 un-leveraged / WACC 8.45% 4.6% 4.2% 26.1x 28.8x 11.2x 12.2x 9.2x 9.9x 1 , 133 722 15% debt / EV; WACC 8.08% DCF 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E post-money  Post-money Drivers / assumptions Methodology EFCF yield P / E (adj.) EV / EBITA EV / EBITDA Equity EV ( €m )
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12072 N796 A 2

  • 1. Il Sole 24 ORE This document has been prepared by UBS Limited Case study NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
  • 2. THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY ITS AUTHORS INDEPENDENTLY OF IL SOLE 24 ORE S.P.A. (THE " COMPANY "), , MEDIOBANCA - BANCA DI CREDITO FINANZIARIO S.P.A. (" MEDIOBANCA "), AND UBS LIMITED (" UBS ") OR ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE UNDERWRITING GROUP OR ANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AFFILIATES IN THE PROPOSED OFFERING (THE " OFFERING ") OF PREFERRED SHARES ( AZIONI DI CATEGORIA SPECIALE ) OF THE COMPANY. UBS LTD, WHO MAY ACT IN CONNECTION WITH THE OFFERING, HAS NO AUTHORITY WHATSOEVER TO GIVE ANY INFORMATION OR MAKE ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY ON BEHALF OF THE COMPANY, MEDIOBANCA, UBS, ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE UNDERWRITING GROUP OR ANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AFFILIATES IN CONNECTION WITH THE OFFERING OR OTHERWISE. IN PARTICULAR, THE OPINIONS AND PROJECTIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE ENTIRELY THOSE OF UBS LTD AS PART OF ITS NORMAL RESEARCH ACTIVITY AND NOT AS A MANAGER OR UNDERWRITER OF ANY OFFER OR AS AN AGENT OF, OR FINANCIAL ADVISER, TO THE COMPANY, MEDIOBANCA, UBS, ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE UNDERWRITING GROUP OR ANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AFFILIATES OR ANY OTHER PERSON. UBS LTD HAS NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED THE INFORMATION GIVEN IN THIS DOCUMENT. ACCORDINGLY, NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR FAIRNESS OF THE INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT. NONE OF UBS LTD, THE COMPANY, MEDIOBANCA, UBS, ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE UNDERWRITING GROUP OR ANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AFFILIATES, DIRECTORS, MEMBERS, OFFICERS OR EMPLOYEES OR ANY OTHER PERSON ACCEPTS ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING FROM ANY USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENTS OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT (EXCEPT IN RESPECT OF WILFUL DEFAULT). THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF ANY OFFER FOR SALE OR SUBSCRIPTION OF OR SOLICITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES NOR SHALL IT OR ANY PART OF IT FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER. THE OFFER SHALL BE MADE BY THE FINAL OFFERING MEMORANDUM TO BE PUBLISHED IN DUE COURSE IN CONNECTION WITH THE OFFERING. ANY APPLICATION FOR PREFERRED SHARES IN THE COMPANY SHOULD BE MADE SOLELY ON THE BASIS OF THE INFORMATION TO BE CONTAINED IN THE FINAL OFFERING MEMORANDUM. THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN FORWARDED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED OR PASSED ON, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, TO ANY OTHER PERSON OR PUBLISHED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, FOR ANY PURPOSE. NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY COPY OR PORTION HEREOF MAY BE TAKEN, TRANSMITTED OR DISTRIBUTED, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN AUSTRALIA, JAPAN, CANADA OR THE UNITED STATES OR TO ANY RESIDENT THEREOF. THE DISTRIBUTION OF THIS DOCUMENT IN OTHER JURISDICTIONS MAY BE RESTRICTED BY LAW AND PERSONS INTO WHOSE POSSESSION THIS DOCUMENT COMES SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT, AND OBSERVE, ANY SUCH RESTRICTIONS. ANY FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE LAWS OF ANY SUCH OTHER JURISDICTIONS. FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS PARAGRAPH, THE TERM "UNITED STATES" HAS THE MEANING GIVEN TO IT IN REGULATION S UNDER THE US SECURITIES ACT OF 1933. BY ACCEPTING THIS DOCUMENT YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS. THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR DISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM ONLY TO PERSONS FALLING WITHIN ARTICLE 19, ARTICLE 47, ARTICLE 49 AND ARTICLES 50 OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES AND MARKETS ACT 2000 (FINANCIAL PROMOTION) ORDER 2005 AND ONLY WHERE THE CONDITIONS CONTAINED IN THOSE ARTICLES HAVE BEEN, OR WILL AT THE RELEVANT TIME BE, SATISFIED. THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL AND IS BEING SUPPLIED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, FURTHER DISTRIBUTED TO ANY OTHER PERSON OR PUBLISHED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, FOR ANY PURPOSE. THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR DISTRIBUTION IN ITALY ONLY TO PROFESSIONAL AND/OR QUALIFIED INVESTORS AS DEFINED IN ANY AND ALL APPLICABLE SECURITIES LAWS AND REGULATIONS. THEREFORE THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO (I) A MEMBER OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC; (II) DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS, THROUGH WHICH INFORMATION IS, OR IS LIKELY TO BECOME AVAILABLE TO A LARGE NUMBER OF PERSONS; OR (III) INDIVIDUALS OR ENTITIES FALLING OUTSIDE THE DEFINITIONS OF PROFESSIONAL AND/OR QUALIFIED INVESTORS AS SPECIFIED ABOVE.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. SECTION 1 The Company NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. SECTION 2 Market Outlook NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. SECTION 3 Group Strategy NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
  • 18.
  • 19. Track record in M&A The multiples paid so far are not demanding Deals announced in 2006–07: avg EV / EBITDA paid is 8.2x Source: Company data, UBS estimates. All in €m if not stated 10 72 85 Total committed 0 1 nm 1 5 nm 5 30% Diamante Q4 07 0 0 nm 2 3 0 3 55% Alinari Q4 07 (E) 10 71 8.2 82 Only controlling stakes Total YTD 2 10 6.7 13 13 (3) 16 100% STR Aug-07 0 0 nm 1 3 nm 3 30% Blogosfere Jul-07 2 13 6.5 12 12 4 8 100% Data Ufficio Jul-07 5 42 8.6 47 47 6 40 100% GPP Mar-07 0 2 37.5 2 4 0 4 57% Motta Arti Grafiche Dec-06 0 2 13.5 4 4 0 4 100% Motta Architettura Oct-06 0 2 nm 3 22 nm 22 15% El Economista Feb-06 2006 EBITDA 2006 revenues EV / EBITDA (x) Impact net debt EV Net debt (cash) Equity value Stake Target Timing
  • 20.
  • 21. SECTION 4 Forecasts (pre-money) NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
  • 22. Key drivers The key drivers and risk factors of top line and margins Source: UBS estimates See above plus web-based adv exposure Advertising: Consolidation of clients - Increasing competition Price pressure - financial info services Strong online advertising - online Multimedia: Premium listeners to be fully “ monetized ” Shortage of frequencies - Cost inflation Growing listeners Radio: Synergies from integration of new businesses Scale effect + Smoother tradition to new media (web,   electronic) Impact of acquisitions M& A + More resilient than consumer publishers Organic growth above consumer publishing Professional publishing : Free press due to break-even in 2009 / 10E Advertising upside from new titles and free   press Launch cost decreasing - Saturation of the add-on segment Free press launched in November 2006, gaining   momentum - New entrants in il sole 24 ore niches “ Young ” titles (mostly launched in 2006–07) - Magazines / free press Product innovation (inserts) Cost cutting plan Circulation and readership weakness Full colour impact Increasing competition from smaller players ( Italia   Oggi ) + High “ professional ” readership Advertising re-positioning Weakening advertising from financial services   segment + Higher than peers’ subscription revenues Cover price gap to “ generalists ” - Newspaper Consumer and financial publishing: Potential risks Visibility issues (+ / -) Growth drivers Division
  • 23. Revenues 2006–10E CAGR is +6%, o / w 3% organic Source: UBS estimates 2.3% 2.1% 7.0% 14.3% 5.1% 6.0% % change 653 638 625 584 511 486 458 Total group 4.2% 4.6% 6.6% 14.9% 1.6% 1.4% % change ( 189 ) ( 181 ) ( 173 ) ( 163 ) ( 141 ) ( 139 ) -137 Corporates & intra-group adj. 2.7% 2.7% 6.9% 14.5% 4.3% 4.9% % change 842 819 798 746 652 625 596 Total gross 6.2% 2.8% ( 1.3 ) % ( 6.3 ) % ( 9.2 ) % ( 9.3 ) % % change 43 41 40 40 43 47 52 Multimedia 5.0% 4.0% 7.0% 12.9% 9.7% 0.4% % change 16 16 15 14 12 11 11 Radio 4.4% 4.8% 6.7% 11.0% 1.4% 0.4% % change 236 226 216 203 183 180 179 System (advertising) 2.4% 2.4% 16.1% 33.2% 2.0% 1.4% % change 238 232 227 195 147 144 142 Professional publishing 1.1% 1.3% 2.1% 10.0% 10.2% 14.8% % change 308 305 301 295 268 243 212 Consumer & fin. publishing 2010E 2009E 2008E 2007E 2006 2005 2004 ( €m )
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  • 26. SECTION 5 Valuation NEITHER THIS DOCUMENT NOR ANY PART OR COPY OF THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE DISTRIBUTED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN THE UNITED STATES OR IN CANADA, JAPAN OR AUSTRALIA
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  • 29. EV Multiples – SOTP Outcome is equity value at €751–729 million (pre-money) Source: UBS estimates SOTP based on mkt EV multiples Notes: 1 Radio is valued on the back of frequencies cost 2 Mostly represented by the stakes in Borsa Italiana and Ecoprensa 729 751 Equity (pre-money) 19 19 Peripheral assets 2 40 40 Net cash (debt) as of December 2008E 669 692 11.3x 59.3 9.5x 72.9 Total group EV ( 164 ) ( 86 ) 11.3x ( 14.5 ) 9.5x ( 9.1 ) Corporate costs 833 778 11.3x 73.7 9.5x 81.9 Total divisions % of group 1 4 7.0 0.1 5.0x 0.8 Multimedia 75 67 nm 0.0 nm 0.7 Radio   1 833 774 11.3x 73.6 9.6x 80.4 Total core divisions 509 447 12.0x 42.5 10.4x 42.8 Professional publishing 323 327 10.4x 31.1 8.7x 37.6 Consumer & financial publishing EV (driven by EV / EBITA) EV (driven by EV / EBITDA) Multiple EBITA Multiple    EBITDA ( €m )
  • 30. P / E and DCF P / E suggests equity value of €687 million , DCF €737–782 million (pre-money) Source: UBS estimates Equity value driven by peers’ P / E Source: UBS estimates DCF —k ey assumptions and outcomes (€m) Notes: 1 Equal to 2007E P / E divided by 2006–09E adj. EPS CAGR. Target P / E and PEG are weighted on the basis of contribution to growth Notes: 1 Mostly represented by the stakes in Borsa Italiana and in Ecoprensa 1.7x 1.7x 1.5x 2.7x PEG 1 € 687m 28.5x 17% € 24.1m 16.4x 16.5x 16.7x P / E (UBS adj.) Equity 200 7E multiples EPS CAGR (2007–10E) Adj. net profit (2007E) (15 consumer/ 85 prof.) 2007E 2007E II Sole 24 ORE Weighted Professional publ. Consumer publ. 782 770 755 737 Equity value (pre-money) 19 19 19 19 Peripheral assets  1 40 40 40 40 Net cash (Dec. 2008E) 722 711 696 677 Entity value 8.8x 8.6x 8.4x 8.2x Implied exit multiple (EV / EBITDA) 488 477 463 445 Terminal value 235 234 233 232 PV of CF 2009–15E 8.08% 8.17% 8.29% 8.45% WACC 15% 10% 5% 0% Net debt / EV
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