3. OVERVIEW
Opportunity in Renewable Fuels is Driving Demand in
Agriculture
U.S. & BRAZIL ETHANOL OUTLOOK
ETHANOL
30 45
ASSUMPTION
BILLIONS OF GALLONS
40
MILLIONS OF ACRES
25
• MTBE replacement by
35
2010 is the base case
20 30
• Incremental yield
25
gains through
15
20
technological
10 15
innovations allow
further substitution
10
5
5
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CORN
U.S.
SUGARCANE
BRAZIL
BIODIESEL
4 20
GLOBAL BIODIESEL OUTLOOK
ASSUMPTION
18
BILLIONS OF GALLONS
MILLIONS OF ACRES
3.5
16
• In EU, biodiesel to
3
14
represent 5% of
2.5 12
transport fuels with the
2 10
US growing up to 2%
8
1.5
6
1
4
0.5 2
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
BIODIESEL PALM
SOYBEAN
RAPESEED & CANOLA
3
Source: Proexporter Network, Pro Mar And Monsanto Estimates
4. OVERVIEW
While Pathways to Participate in Biofuels Marketplace Vary,
Monsanto Is Focusing on Three Primary Raw Materials
SOURCES FOR MAJOR BIOFUEL CATEGORIES
MARKET SOURCES
BIOFUELS
ETHANOL
FOCUS
Sugarcane
ETHANOL
Corn
Increased Yield
Cellulosic
Switchgrass
High Fermentable
Trees (Poplar, Pine)
Corn
Miscanthus
89 91 DIESEL
Renessen Corn
Waste (Pulp, Hulls)
Processing System
Alfalfa
E85
Expanded Acres
BIODIESEL
ETHANOL
Palm BIODIESEL
BIODIESEL Soybean Increased Yield
Rapeseed / Canola
Higher Oil
Corn
Renessen Corn
Jatrapha
Processing System
Expanded Acres
4
5. OVERVIEW
The Greatest Leverage in the Production of Ethanol is Corn
OPPORTUNITY:
OPPORTUNITY:
COST COMPOSITION: ONE GALLON OF ETHANOL INCREASE THE
Improve the net realized
VALUE OF THE
yield on the farm
AVERAGE COST: $1.09/GAL AT 40M GAL FACILITY CO-PRODUCT
KEY TOOLS:
Increasing the nutrient
0.70 value of the co-
Molecular breeding
product of ethanol
improves rate of gain by
production opens new
2X versus conventional
0.50 revenue streams that
breeding
defray cost of
$ / GAL
production
0.30
KEY TOOLS:
0.10 Renessen corn
processing
LABOR technology builds on
OTHER*
CORN
-0.10 SUPPLIES high-lysine product to
& OVH create new feed
DENATURANT DEPR.
UTILITIES
CO- opportunities and
-0.30
PRODUCT improves the quality
VALUE of and reduces the
amount of DDGs
*OTHER INCLUDES ENZYMES
DDG = Distillers Dried Grains
Source: Proexporter Network, and Monsanto Estimates
5
6. OVERVIEW
Advent of New Technologies Provide Greater Yield Stability
And Enhancement
USDA U.S. CORN YIELD
160
140
AVERAGE YIELD (BU/AC)
120
100
80
60
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
1995-2006: YIELD STABILITY
1975-1995: SIGNIFICANT YIELD VARIABILITY
• With the advent of improved
• High variability in per-acre yield
genetics and biotech traits,
• Yield deviation as high as 25 percent from average yield
there is greater consistency in
trend
yield because traits insulate
• Variability largely a result of influence of discrete annual
farmers from extremes of
events, including weather patterns and insect infestations
weather and insect infestations
2006 USDA projection
6
7. OVERVIEW
Monsanto’s Focus is Yield, With Multiple, Complementary
Approaches to Target Feed and Fuel Opportunities
CURRENT
MONSANTO
Endosperm COMMERCIAL RENESSEN
PIPELINE
PORTFOLIO
Accounts for most
of the kernel’s dry
FUEL Improves Process
Drive Yield Per Acre
Drive Yield Per Acre
weight; Main Efficiency
• Drought-tolerant
• YieldGard
source of starch corn
Rootworm
Monsanto target
for food, feed, fuel • Corn processing
• Nitrogen-utilization
opportunities: • Roundup Ready systems
and sweeteners corn
Corn 2
• Boost net realized fuel
• Higher-yielding
• YieldGard Corn
opportunity per acre corn
Borer
• Focus on higher yields
Optimize
and higher
Downstream
fermentability
Processing
increases fuel
• Processor
production per acre
Preferred High-
Fermentable Corn
Improve Nutrient
Drive Yield Per Acre
Drive Yield Per Acre
Monsanto target
Content and
• Drought-tolerant
opportunities: • YieldGard
corn Extraction Per Acre
Rootworm
• Boost net realized feed
• Mavera™ High-
• Nitrogen-utilization
• Roundup Ready
opportunity per acre corn value corn with
Corn 2
lysine and 2nd-
• Improve the nutrient • Higher-yielding
• YieldGard Corn Generation High-
corn
Borer
content of the kernel value corn with
Germ and extraction lysine
processes to create
About 25 percent • Feed corn with
value for animal feed balanced proteins
of the germ is oil;
Most valuable • Corn processing
FEED systems
component, used
for food and feed
7
8. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
Processor Preferred High Fermentable Corn Hybrids Proven
to Enhance Ethanol Yields
FOCUS: ETHANOL YIELD IMPROVEMENT THROUGH HIGH
CURRENT COMMERCIAL
FERMENTABLE CORN
PORTFOLIO
Improve starch 900 140
TARGET: output and use
PROCESSOR PREFERRED
PROCESSOR PREFERRED HYBRIDS
800
per acre 120
NUMBER OF SAMPLES
#2 YELLOW CORN
700
Processor
#2 YELLOW CORN
NUMBER OF SAMPLES 100
Preferred High
PRODUCT 600
Fermentable Corn
80
(HFC) 500
OPPORTUNITY:
400 60
• Average yield for a
300
conventional dry mill is 2.8 40
gallons of ethanol for every 1 200
bushel of corn 20
100
• HFC provided an 2.7% average
increase in ethanol yields in 0 0
large scale commercial trials
45.00
46.00
47.20
48.20
49.20
50.20
51.20
52.20
53.20
54.20
55.20
across 7 states and Canada in
2003 – 2004
PREDICTED ETHANOL YIELD (NIT
• A 2.7% increase in UNITS)
fermentation is equal to 11
Use of Processor Preferred
gal/ethanol per acre
corn can shift the ethanol
• Some ethanol plants are
yield distribution curve to
paying a premium of $0.05-
the right
$0.10 per bushel for Processor
Preferred HFC grain
8
9. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
Ethanol Demand Creates Positive Pull for Higher Technology
in Draw Areas to Assure Supply
CURRENT COMMERCIAL
PORTFOLIO
FOCUS: U.S. ETHANOL PLANTS
Drive yield per
TARGET:
acre
Average trait
penetration was
Current biotech
PRODUCT
2.5 X greater in
trait portfolio
areas with a high
OPPORTUNITY: concentration of
ethanol facilities
• 220K corn acres required to
compared to
supply a 100M gallon dry mill
areas without or
• Ethanol draw acres are likely
having low
to be highly technified with
concentrations of
elite Processor Preferred
ethanol facilities
germplasm combined in a
Higher trait
future 4-way stack
penetration per
• Pipeline traits should provide
acre corresponds
greater value and reliability
to increased
gross profit per
ETHANOL PLANTS UNDER
ETHANOL PLANTS IN
CONSTRUCTION (44) acre
PRODUCTION (101)
9
10. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
YieldGard Rootworm Is First Generation of Biotech Traits
Helping to Boost Yields, Especially in Drought Conditions
KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
YieldGard Rootworm
AVAILABLE MARKET 25-30M 5M 1M
Corn
PERCENT PENETRATED 40% 0% 0%
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
CURRENT COMMERCIAL SUMMER 2006
Indications are
PORTFOLIO
there is drought
D0: Abnormally Dry
Drive yield per stress in areas of
TARGET: D1: Drought - Moderate
acre
the Western Corn
D1: Drought - Severe
Belt and Texas
YieldGard D1: Drought - Extreme
PRODUCT
Rootworm Corn
D1: Drought - Exceptional
OPPORTUNITY:
• Delivers effective and Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, Le Comte and Heddinghaus, CPC/NOAA: http://drought.unl.edu/dm
consistent in-plant protection
against western, northern and
Mexican corn rootworms
2006 Field pictures already
• Serves as the proxy for the
show a significant difference in
triple stack having an
the performance of YieldGard
opportunity of 30 million acres
Rootworm.
YIELDGARD SOIL-APPLIED
ROOTWORM INSECTICIDE
DISCOVERY PHASE III
PHASE I PHASE II PHASE IV LAUNCH
Adv. Development
Proof of Concept Early Development Pre-Launch
10
11. PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY
Multi-Generational Drought-Tolerant Corn to Create
Value Across Multiple Market Segments
KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
AVAILABLE MARKET 80M 30M 6M
Drought-tolerant corn PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%
P R O JE CT
SEGMENTED VALUE OPPORTUNITY
MONSANTO PIPELINE
ACROSS MARKETS: U.S. EXAMPLE
TARGET: Drive yield per acre
High annual
precipitation
PRODUCT Drought-Tolerant Corn
PRODUCT CONCEPT:
• Drought-tolerance is a family of products,
aimed at providing consistent yield and
buffering against the effects of water
Low annual
limitations
precipitation
Source: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University
OPPORTUNITIES:
WESTERN
IRRIGATED STABILITY
• Farmers value water-use in “acre-inches of DRYLAND
water” needed to support yield potential –
8-12M acres 10-12M acres 50-60M acres
farmers need 18-20 inches of moisture from
natural or irrigated sources during growing 14-18” typical 14-18” typical 17-19” typical
season precipitation in precipitation in precipitation in
growing season growing season growing season
• Value of the trait is in better yields under
Irrigated Non-irrigated Non-irrigated
moisture-stressed conditions; Varies by
region (see table at right) Value is in Value is in Value is in
replacing improved improved yields
• The value will be specific to the variable
irrigation, reducing economics for when moisture is
costs of water use by farmers, not fixed
the variable costs corn less than optimal
costs of irrigation of irrigation
11
12. PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY
Technology Changes the Value Proposition in Challenged
Growing Conditions
FOCUS: YIELD PER ACRE – DRYLANDS
MONSANTO PIPELINE
140
TARGET: Drive yield per acre
121 bu/ac
Drought-tolerant
120
Biotech and trait
BUSHELS PER ACRE
PRODUCT breeding pipeline 100 88 bu/ac Molecular breeding
opportunities contribution
80
OPPORTUNITY:
Triple-stack
• Pipeline technology can 60
Inherent
improve upon existing yields
Germplasm Yield
40
and improve costs
• Opportunity for more marginal 20
acres to come into production
0
ACRES: 3.4M
DRYLANDS
2015
2005
AVERAGE
GROSS PROFIT OPPORTUNITY
YIELD: 88 bu/ac
• Between 2005 and 2015, the combination of breeding and
biotechnology could increase the per-acre productivity of the
average acre in the Drylands by almost 40 percent
• With only traditional breeding tools, the expected gain during
that time would have been just 29 percent
• In the example above; with 3.4 million acres in the Drylands area
and a 31 bushel per acre improvement by 2015, this could mean
300 million more gallons of ethanol
12
13. RENESSEN OVERVIEW
Technological Innovations Create Opportunity For Value
Creation in Feed and Fuel Markets
FOCUS: IOWA
MACRO EFFECT MICRO EFFECT
• In the U.S., a doubling • With the ramp up in
in the demand for corn ethanol plants in
used in ethanol in the Northern Iowa, hog
DUBUQUE
coming years will farms now compete
SIOUX
squeeze current corn with ethanol producers
CEDAR
CITY
supplies RAPIDS for feedstock creating
“micro” competitive
IOWA
2006 2015 markets driving
CITY
AMES
competition for local
DAVENPORT
FEED 35% 18% corn.
DES
FUEL 18% 41% MOINES
BURLINGTON
EXPORT 15% 13%
ENDING
14% 7%
STOCK
OTHER 18% 21%
ETHANOL PLANTS UNDER
ETHANOL PLANTS IN WET MILL
CONSTRUCTION
PRODUCTION
MOST
LEAST
INTENSITY OF HOG PRODUCTION: INTENSE
INTENSE
Source: USDA and
Renessen Estimates
13
14. RENESSEN OPPORTUNITY
Renessen’s New System Bolts On to a Conventional Dry
Milling Process and Makes More Efficient Use of Corn Seed
RENESSEN PROCESS
FLOW
•FOR ALL PRACTICAL CONVENTIONAL DRY MILL PROCESS
PURPOSES, THE RENESSEN
NUTRIENT
NUTRIENT
CORN PROCESSING SYSTEM
Hammer
Hammer
DENSE Distillation Ethanol
DENSE
BOLTS ON TO A Elevator Fermentation Distillation Ethanol
Elevator Fermentation
Mill
CORN Mill
CORN
CONVENTIONAL DRY MILL
PROCESS
STEP 1:
Drying
Drying
•START WITH A RENESSEN FRACTIONATION AND EXTRACTION PROCESS
NUTRITIONALLY DENSE CORN
DEVELOPED THROUGH
BIOTECH OR A
HIGHLY
HIGHLY HIGH PROTEIN
4
3
CONVENTIONAL HYBRID FERMENTABLE
Fractionation FERMENTABLE
Fractionation LOW OIL DDG
FRACTION
FRACTION
STEP 2:
High oil
High oil
•PROCESS IT THROUGH A
fraction
NOVEL PROCESS fraction
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPED BY
CARGILL AND RENESSEN
Nutrient-rich
Nutrient-rich
STEP 3: Oil extraction
Oil extraction
meal
meal
•DELIVER FOUR HIGH VALUE
REVENUE STREAMS
1: HIGH OIL CORN OR
Corn oil
Corn oil
BIODIESEL
2: HIGH VALUE SWINE
AND POULTRY FEED
3: HIGHLY
HIGH VALUE SWINE
FERMENTABLE STARCH
1 2
HIGH OIL CORN
AND POULTRY FEED
FOR FOOD OR BIODIESEL
4: HIGH PROTEIN, LOW
OIL DDG
14
15. RENESSEN OPPORTUNITY
Renessen Corn Processing System Has Potential to
Change Competitive Landscape in Ethanol Production
SOURCES OF VALUE CONVENTIONAL DRY CONVENTIONAL DRY MILL
FOR ETHANOL
RENESSEN PIPELINE MILL WITH RENESSEN
PLANTS
Improve output of Higher fermentable
TARGET:
Ethanol stream
ethanol plants starch stream
producing on
ETHANOL delivered to dry mill
Renessen Corn average 2.8 gallons
PRODUCT increasing yield and
Processing System per bushel
overall plant capacity
PRODUCT CONCEPT:
For every gallon of
• Renessen’s Corn Processing ethanol, 5.1
A higher protein,
System coupled with a pounds of DDG are
lower oil DDG is
conventional dry mill will utilize the created. DDG is a
DDG produced resulting in
components of corn more low value co-
more value and
effectively to generate higher value product. Some is
reduced utilities cost
products being land filled
today
OPPORTUNITIES:
A high value animal
• Increase ethanol yield SWINE feed is created that
No swine or
AND
• Increase value of co-products practically doubles
N/A poultry feed is
POULTRY
• Reduce utility costs lysine content while
created
FEED improving protein
composition
HIGH OIL A high value corn oil
for food and biodiesel
CORN FOR No oil stream is
N/A is created. Current
FOOD AND created
value is roughly 26-30
BIODIESEL cents per pound
Positive value Neutral value N/A No value stream
DDG = Distillers Dried Grains
15
16. BIODIESEL OPPORTUNITY
Monsanto’s Pipeline in Soybeans Supports Accelerated
Growth in Biodiesel
Cotyledon CURRENT
MONSANTO
Holds the most COMMERCIAL RENESSEN
PIPELINE
nutrient value of PORTFOLIO
the soybean.
FUEL Improves Process
Drive Yield Per Acre Drive Yield Per Acre
Accounts for 93% Efficiency
of the soybean • Roundup
• Roundup Ready
RReady2Yield
soybeans • High-oil soybeans
Monsanto target
and is 43% soybeans for processing
opportunities: • Winter Canola
protein. • Dicamba-tolerant
• Corn oil for
• Boost net realized fuel soybeans
biodiesel
opportunity per acre • Drought-tolerant
A bushel soybeans
• Improve economics for
of • Higher Yielding
production on marginal
soybeans soybeans
acres
produces
11 lbs. of
oil and 48
lbs. of Drive Yield Per Acre Improve Nutrient
Drive Yield Per Acre
Monsanto target
meal Content and
• Roundup
opportunities: • Roundup Ready RReady2Yield Extraction Per Acre
soybeans soybeans
• Boost net realized feed
• Mavera™ I & II
• Winter Canola
and food opportunity • Dicamba-tolerant High-value
soybeans
per acre soybeans –
• Drought-tolerant increased oil and
• Improve the nutrient soybeans protein content
content of the soybean
• Higher Yielding
Hypocotyl to create value for soybeans
animal feed and food
Accounts for 2.4% Improve Food
Improve Food
Quality per Acre
Quality per Acre
of the soybean
and is 41% • Vistive II and
• Vistive soybeans
Vistive III soybeans
protein.
FOOD / FEED • Omega-3 soybeans
• Improved-protein
soybeans
16
17. SUMMARY
Future Innovation in Breeding and Biotech Holds Key to
Feed, Fuel and Food Demand
MONSANTO’S
HISTORY AND PROJECTED EVOLUTION OF U.S. CORN YIELD
OPPORTUNITY
(MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL ANALYSIS)
The delta between what is
predicted and what is possible
200
is where opportunity lies
180
AVERAGE YIELD (BU/AC)
Molecular breeding boosts
the genetic potential of the
160 seed
Biotech traits protect that
140
genetic potential for more
practical yield
120
Breeding and Biotech come
100 together to change the
curve of yield potential
80
60
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
“
USDA TREND LINE
PROJECTED YIELDS WITH MOLECULAR
BREEDING AND BIOTECHNOLOGY
The corn yield curve is increasing at an accelerated rate due to advances in
Biotechnology … Increased yields allow growers to harvest considerably more corn
without significantly increasing acreage.
-- National Corn Growers Association (NCGA)
17
18. SUMMARY
“Pull” Created by Demand for Ethanol Speeds Stacked
Penetration, Accelerating Seeds-and-Traits Opportunity
FOCUS: GROSS PROFIT EFFECT OF STACKED TRAITS
OPPORTUNITY
70%
• Stacking traits provides
additive layers of protection to 67%
65%
seed germplasm to protect
GROSS PROFIT PER ACRE AS A
PERCENTAGE OF NET SALE
inherent yield
• In 2006, Monsanto sold more 60%
59%
stacked traits than single traits
• In 2007, in our national brands, 55%
Monsanto expects to sell more
52%
triple stacks than singles
50%
• Stacking corn traits on to our
germplasm improves gross
45% 45%
profit contribution to the
business
40%
SEED ONLY 1 TRAIT 2 TRAITS 3 TRAITS
GROSS PROFIT OPPORTUNITY
• In highly technified areas,
the demand for triple-
stacked traits can improve
per-acre profitability by
almost 50 percent
18