3. OVERVIEW
Increasing Protein Demand, Coupled with Boost from
Biofuels, Creates Sustained Long-Term Grain Demand
STRETCHING SUPPLY STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
Strong Demand Environment
WORLD CORN AND SOYBEAN STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO1
FACTORS:
STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO
50%
► INCREASING PROTEIN
45%
DEMAND
40%
Wealth drives meat
35%
consumption – changing
30%
feed demand
25%
► ASCENSION OF CHINA
20%
China’s growth is reaching
15%
limits of domestic
10%
production, driving huge
5%
changes in export
0%
2008/2009P
1964/1965
1966-1967
1968/1969
1970/1971
1972/1973
1974/1975
1976/1977
1978/1979
1980/1981
1982/1983
1984/1985
1986/1987
1988/1989
1990/1991
1992/1993
1994/1995
1996/1997
1998/1999
2000/2001
2002/2003
2004/2005
2005/2006
environment
► ESTABLISHMENT OF
SOYBEAN STOCKS-TO-USE BIOFUELS
CORN STOCKS-TO-USE Assuming only base-case
adoption of biofuels, more
• U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use ratio projected to be 12% for 2007/08
corn and soy needed in next
and down 28% to a 9% stocks-to-use ratio for 2008/09
decade
• U.S. soybean stocks-to-use estimated to be 4.4% for 2007/08 and
essentially flat for 2008/09, even with acres up nearly 18%
3
1. USDA PSD View database query for global corn and soybeans
4. OVERVIEW
Global Corn Production Per Acre Is Sub-Optimized Today,
Creating an Opportunity for Innovation
GLOBAL CORN PRODUCTION1: YIELD
CORE PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES AND EVALUATION
Boosting yield-per-
acre can make a
meaningful
CANADA difference in
EU 27
3M ACRES
supply-demand
136 BU/AC
500M BUSHELS 27M ACRES
environment
90% HYBRID
U.S. 99 BU/AC
CHINA
2B BUSHELS
90M ACRES
• If India, Mexico
151 BU/AC 67M ACRES
MEXICO
13B BUSHELS 83 BU/AC
and Brazil moved
6B BUSHELS
18M ACRES
to 100 bushel per
25% HYBRID
INDIA
48 BU/AC
BRAZIL
900M BUSHELS
acre yields, they
20M ACRES
36M ACRES 45% HYBRID
75% HYBRID
could produce
32 BU/AC
58 BU/AC 700M BUSHELS
2B BUSHELS
nearly 4 billion
additional
ARGENTINA
bushels of corn
10M ACRES
111 BU/AC
annually – equal
900M BUSHELS
to total world
Optimization of yield per acre
corn exports in
2007
Poor/Subsistence Sub-Optimized Optimized
4
1. Source is USDA FAS and internal estimates.
5. OVERVIEW
Pipeline Leverages Power of Breeding and Biotech to Create
Yield for Current Commercial Growth and New Platforms
MONSANTO’S R&D PIPELINE
DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE II
R&D PHASE: PHASE III PHASE IV LAUNCH
BREEDING
G
COMMERCIAL
IT PLATFORM
GERMPLASM
INTEGRATION
ANALYTICS
COMMERCIAL
MARKERS
GENOMICS SEED
ELITE
Germplasm
TRAIT
SOLD TO
R FARMERS
BIOTECHNOLOGY
Pipeline Priorities Through 2012
Pipeline Priorities Through 2012
BIOTECHNOLOGY
BREEDING
Deliver the Value in Monsanto’s Established
Continue to Drive Breeding Gains Across Crop
Trait Pipeline
Platforms
Unlock the Opportunity in Yield and Stress
Through the BASF Collaboration
5
6. INTERNATIONAL CORN
Plan to Continue to Target 1-2 Share Point Gains in Key
Countries in 2009; U.S. Targets 2+ Share Gain
INTERNATIONAL CORN BRAND PERFORMANCE:
LEADING MARKET INDICATORS OF MONSANTO BRAND SHARE PERFORMANCE – 2008
EU27
U.S.
2008F BRAND
2008F DEKALB
13%
25-26% SHARE:
BRAND SHARE:
ESTIMATED
ESTIMATED
0.5 share
2-3 share FY08 GAIN:
FY08 GAIN:
POSITION IN
POSITION IN
#3
#2 MARKET:
MARKET:
FY09 TARGET:
FY09 TARGET: 1-2 share
2+ share
INDIA
ARGENTINA 2008F BRAND
39%
SHARE:
2008F TOTAL
45% CURRENT
BRAND SHARE:
Flat
SHARE
BRAZIL ESTIMATE:
ESTIMATED
5 share
FY08 GAIN: 2008F TOTAL POSITION IN
40% #1
BRAND SHARE: MARKET:
POSITION IN
#1
MARKET: ESTIMATED
Held FY09 TARGET:
1-2 share
FY08 GAIN:
FY09 TARGET:
1-2 share Share
POSITION IN
#1
MARKET:
FY09 TARGET:
1-2 share
6
7. U.S. CORN
Triple Stack Penetration Accelerates, Creating Added Growth
and Setting Stage for SmartStax Launch
U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2005-2010F
70
220
200
U.S. TRIPLE-STACK ACRES
60
180
U.S. TRAIT ACRES
(IN MILLIONS)
160 50
(IN MILLIONS)
140
40
120
100
30
80
20
60
40
10
20
0
0
2007 2008F 2009F 2010
2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F
Opportunity
Q3UPDATE Q3UPDATE
Rootworm Control NA 50-65M
20.8M 28-29M
Corn Borer Control NA 60-70M
42.4M 43-44M
Glyphosate Tolerance NA 80M
57.9M 67-68M
Triple Stack/SmartStax 17.6M 28M 34-35M 50-65M
Opportunity widens in 2010 with launch of SmartStax
Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absolute
acre will be reflected by two or more trait acres.
7
8. GLOBAL BIOTECH TRAITS
Significant Growth Opportunity in Expansion of Existing
Commercial Biotech Traits Globally
SOYBEANS COTTON CORN
INTERNATIONAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY
MARKET OPPORTUNITY FOR BIOTECH TRAITS THROUGH 20101
ROUNDUP BOLLGARD ROUNDUP YIELDGARD
ROUNDUP YIELDGARD
READY AND READY CORN
READY ROOTWORM
BOLLGARD II CORN 2 BORER
(FLEX)
Brazil 50-60M 3M 2M 15-20M 15-20M 5M
Argentina 40M - - 9M 7M 5M
India - 15-20M 15-20M 6M 6M -
Europe (EU27) 1M - - 24M 8M 5M
South Africa 0.2M .15M .15M 6M 4M -
Australia - 0.5M-0.8M 0.5M-0.8M - - -
OPPORTUNITY:
91-101M 19-24M 18-23M 60-65M 40-45M 15M
Total Key Markets
2008F Penetration of
72-94%2
68-76% 3-4% 3% 21-23% 0%
Key Markets
Opportunity for existing biotech traits outside of the U.S. is
nearly 275M acres and a little more than a third of those acres
have been penetrated
1. Market Opportunity reflects total acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily acres projected for penetration by 2010.
2. Primarily Bollgard I penetration; opportunity to expand to second generation technology.
8
9. INTERNATIONAL CORN
With Recent Trait Approvals, Door Opens for Technology
Infusion in Latin America
ARGENTINA BRAZIL
20
2008 STATUS
15-20M
• Roundup Ready Corn
2 with YieldGard
YIELDGARD CORN
ROUNDUP READY CORN 2
15
Corn Borer stack BORER
WITH YIELDGARD CORN
M ACRES
received regulatory BORER STACK
approval in Argentina
end of August 2007
10
• YieldGard Corn Borer 7M
received final
approvals in Brazil in
5
early 2008
1-2M
1-1.5M
0
FY09F
FY09F OPPORTUNITY OPPORTUNITY
HYBRID ACRES – FY08E 10M1 27M
MONSANTO SHARE FY08E 45% 40%
FY09 TRAIT PRICING WITHIN
$15-$16/ACRE $18-20/ACRE
DEKALB BRAND
FY08 AVG. RETAIL PRICE FOR
$29/ACRE $34/ACRE
DEKALB HYBRID CORN SEED
9
1. Source: KLEFFMANN Marketing Services
10. R& D PIPELINE
Strong Pipeline Reflects Growing Innovation and Value of
Emerging Yield and Stress Traits
DISCOVERY PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4
Drought-
HIGH Tolerant
FAMILY TRAITS►
Family
CORN:
COLLABORATION
YIELD & STRESS
Nitrogen-
BROAD-ACRE HIGH Utilization
FAMILY TRAITS►
YIELD Family
Broad-Acre,
MEGA Higher-Yielding
FAMILY TRAITS►
Family
SOYBEANS: Broad-Acre,
BROAD-ACRE HIGH Higher-Yielding
FAMILY TRAITS►
YIELD Family
2020 VALUE RANGES: Roundup
Omega-3
Bollgard III Ready 2 Yield
soybeans
soybeans
MEGA HIGH Roundup
Insect-protected
$300M-$500M Ready 2
>$1BM Roundup Ready
YieldGard
Yield canola 2 Yield soybeans
VT PRO
Dicamba- corn
MID LOW tolerant
soybeans
<$150M
$150M-$300M Vistive III Improved-
protein
High-oil
Corn Soybeans Cotton Canola soybeans
soybeans
Note: 2020 value ranges reflects expected annual gross sales in launch country in 2020. 10
11. R & D PIPELINE
Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans Have Potential to Deliver
Up to 10 Years of Breeding Gains Through One Trait
R&D Pipeline ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS:
SECOND-GENERATION WEED CONTROL OPPORTUNITY
Roundup Ready 2 Yield
Phase 4
STATUS:
PRE-LAUNCH
Near-Isoline Comparisons:
% Yield Increase over Roundup Ready
12%
PROJECT CONCEPT: Roundup Ready 2 Yield vs. Roundup Ready
Roundup Ready 2 Yield will provide
11%
10%
soybeans that are tolerant to the
9%
Roundup family of herbicides with a
7-11% yield increase compared to 9%
8%
Roundup Ready soybeans
VALUE:
7% 7%
6%
LAUNCH-
U.S.
COUNTRY:
4%
LAUNCH-
COUNTRY ACRE 70M
OPPORTUNITY1:
2%
2009: 1-2M ACRES
LAUNCH PLANS:
2010: 5-6M ACRES
0%
4 YEAR
2009 PRICING: $69-$722/ACRE
2004 2005 2006 2007 AVERAGE
SOURCES OF VALUE:
Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans yield 7 to 11 percent
Weed control
higher than Roundup Ready soybeans based on 73
Current Roundup Ready
1
soybean platform will retail for Monsanto field trials from 2004-2007
$49-$52/acre in 2009
Improved yield 1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where trait could have technological fit. Opportunity does not reflect acres that
2 7-11% increase; average of 9% may be planted to a competitive trait or acres required for insect-resistance management (IRM) set-aside refuges
over 4 years of field trials 2. Reflects seamless prcing to farmer, including trait value, germplasm value and value provided by seed treatment
11
12. R & D PIPELINE
Insect-Protected Soybeans Are First-Ever Monsanto Trait
Developed Exclusively for Non-U.S. Opportunity
2007 FIELD TESTING SHOWS VISUAL
R&D Pipeline
PROOF OF CONTROL
Insect-Protected Soybeans with
Roundup Ready 2 Yield
TIPTON, GA - FIELD EFFICACY TRIAL – 2007
Phase 3
STATUS:
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Insect-protected soybeans use Bt
technology widely adopted in corn
and cotton to control insect pests,
especially economically important
pests for Brazilian farmers. The Bt
trait is combined with Roundup
Ready 2 Yield
VALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY: Brazil
LAUNCH-COUNTRY
50M
ACRE OPPORTUNITY1:
2020 COMMERCIAL
$150-$300M CONTROL WITH GENE
VALUE2:
(NO INSECTICIDE) (NO INSECTICIDE)
SOURCES OF VALUE:
Insecticide substitution
Insect-protected soybeans with Roundup Ready 2 Yield
1 Based on 2 current sprays
costing almost $6/acre total technology demonstrated significant protection from key
lepidopteran pests, including soybean looper, in 2007 tests
Improved yield
2 4+% increase over chemical
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where trait could have technological fit. Opportunity does not reflect acres that may be
insecticides planted to a competitive trait or acres required for insect-resistance management (IRM) set-aside refuges
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
12
13. R & D PIPELINE
Higher-Yielding Soybeans Continue to Demonstrate Improved
Yield Over Conventional Controls
2007/08 HIGHER-YIELDING SOYBEAN
NEW:
R&D Pipeline AGRONOMIC TESTING VERSUS CONTROLS
Higher-Yielding Soybeans Family: Percentage yield difference vs. control:
Lead Project 8.0 6.2% 10.2%
7.1% 6.0% 4.6% 10.5% 2.2% 10.3%
5.4% 8.8%
(bu/a increase over control)
Phase 2
STATUS:
Average Yield Advantage
PROJECT CONCEPT: 6.0
PRODUCT
Higher-yielding soybeans aimed at
CONCEPT
boosting intrinsic yield potential of TARGET
4.0
soybeans through insertion of key RANGE
genes
VALUE: 2.0
LAUNCH-COUNTRY
45M
ACRES1:
0.0
$300-$500M
2020 VALUE2:
Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5
SOURCES OF VALUE: Season 1: 2007 U.S. Field Trials (18 locations)
Season 2: 2007/08 LA Field Trials (12 locations)
Improved yield
16 top-performing events advanced to Latin America
1 Targeting yield improvement of
6-10%
trials. Lead events showing strong yield advantages
over conventional controls in both trials.
Higher-yielding trait will be stacked on top of
Roundup Ready 2 Yield and other soybean-pipeline
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology
fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in
traits.
respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in
launch country in year 2020
13
PART OF THE MONSANTO BASF YIELD AND STRESS R&D COLLABORATION
14. R & D PIPELINE
SmartStax Corn Upgrades Triple Stack Corn Through Potential
Refuge Reduction and Improved Insect Control
Projected SmartStax Value: On-Farm
Increased Yield (per-acre and on-farm)
+
SmartStax Value:
YIELD Refuge Reduction Considerations
YIELD COMPONENT
BENEFIT1
PER-ACRE
U.S. EPA requires set-aside refuge
Improved consistency: 1-2%
for current single-mode-of-action
Primary pests
insect-protected traits in corn
Improved protection: 1-2%
20%
Secondary pests
ON-FARM
80%
Reduced refuge 3-6%
4-10%
Total Estimated Yield Benefit
Flexibility to move to one technology
+
20 BU/AC
platform on-farm 1
Durability
+ Yield Differential
Flexibility to increase planting Farmers in Illinois in 2007 reported
+
populations average 20 bu/acre yield difference
Platform for future traits between YieldGard VT Triple and
+
refuge acres
Access to superior seed
+
Total Projected SmartStax Value
=
1. Yield benefit reflects expected yield benefit above triple-stack standard, on a
14
per-acre and whole-farm basis as noted. Ranges may overlap
15. R & D PIPELINE
2007 Dryland Field Tests of Lead Drought Event Offers Visual
Evidence of Increased Yield In Stressed Conditions
2007 FIELD TESTING SHOWS VISUAL
R&D Pipeline
PROOF OF YIELD IMPROVEMENT
Drought-Tolerant Corn Family:
SUPERIOR, NE - FIELD TRIALS – 2007
Lead Project
HIT Project Phase 3
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Drought-tolerance family aimed at
providing consistent yield and
buffering against effects of water
limitations
VALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY
55M
ACRES1:
$300-$500M
2020 VALUE2:
SOURCES OF VALUE:
Improved yield
Targeting 6-10% yield
1 improvement in water-stress CONTROL HYBRID WITH GENE
environments (76 BU/AC) (94 BU/AC)
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at
Water stress exposure during different stages of
Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
development can have significant effect on corn yield;
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country
Monsanto’s lead drought-tolerance trait shows a significant
in year 2020
yield advantage compared with controls under drought
stress
15
PART OF THE MONSANTO BASF YIELD AND STRESS R&D COLLABORATION
16. EXTENDING LEADERSHIP
Second-Generation Drought-Tolerant Corn Targeted to Expand
Reach
Drought Efficacy for Second-Gen Events
Yield Difference Over Controls (%)
16
R&D Pipeline
14
Drought-Tolerant Corn Family:
12
Second-Generation Project
10 PRODUCT
CONCEPT
Phase 2 8
STATUS:
TARGET
KEY RESULTS
RANGE
6
PROJECT CONCEPT:
4
Drought-tolerance family aimed at
2
providing consistent yield and
0 EVENT 1EVENT 2 EVENT 3 EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3
buffering against effects of water
limitations HIGHER-YIELDING ENVIRONMENT
LOWER-YIELDING ENVIRONMENT
AVERAGE YIELD: 166 BU/AC
AVERAGE YIELD: 53 BU/AC
VALUE:
2007
2006
LAUNCH-COUNTRY
55M (All three events significant @ p≤0.10); Statistical significance determined by ANOVA (2006) or nonparametric test (2007)
ACRES1:
$300-$500M
2020 VALUE2:
SOURCES OF VALUE: SEGMENTED VALUE OPPORTUNITY ACROSS MARKETS
Improved yield Second generation
KEY OPPORTUINITY
IRRIGATED
Targeting 6-10% yield demonstrates
1 improvement in water-stress 8-12M Acres
performance over
environments WESTERN broad range of stress
DRYLAND
Water substitution conditions in both
10-12M Acres low and high-yielding
2 Variable costs in pumped
environments
irrigation of >$100/ acre STABILITY
Potential for a broad
60-70M Acres
Low annual High annual
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at
acreage fit across all
precipitation
Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops precipitation
acres planted
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country Source: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University
in year 2020
16
PART OF THE MONSANTO BASF YIELD AND STRESS R&D COLLABORATION
17. R & D PIPELINE
In Continued Field Testing, Nitrogen-Utilization Lead Shows
Yield Improvement Under Normal Nitrogen
LEAD PERFORMANCE UNDER NORMAL
R&D Pipeline
NITROGEN CONDITIONS
Nitrogen-Utilization Corn Family:
Yield Increase (bu/Ac)
Lead Project
12
* **
Phase 1
***
10
STATUS:
*
8
PROJECT CONCEPT:
6
4
Targets ways to use nitrogen more
2
efficiently, exploring potential to
0
boost yield under normal nitrogen
-2
conditions or stabilize it in low
TRIALS IN MULTIPLE
TRIALS IN MULTIPLE
nitrogen environments
HYBRID BACKGROUNDS
HYBRID BACKGROUNDS
VALUE: (15 LOC)
(16 LOC)
LAUNCH-COUNTRY 2005
55M 2006 YIELD TRIALS:
ACRES1: 2007 YIELD TRIALS:
YIELD
SUFFICIENT N LEVELS SUFFICIENT N LEVELS
TRIALS:
$300-$500M
2020 VALUE2: (37 LOC TOTAL) (20 LOC TOTAL)
(23 LOC
TOTAL)
SOURCES OF VALUE:
2005 2006 2007
Improved yield
*
Yield improvement in normal
1 Statistically significant @ p≤0.10
nitrogen environments Bar color correlates with the specific hybrid background tested. Same bar color
in different tests and different years indicates same hybrid was used.
Nitrogen reduction
2 All trials conducted under sufficient nitrogen application levels.
Improving yield in low nitrogen
environments
Under normal nitrogen conditions, Nitrogen-Utilization lead
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at
has demonstrated yield advantages in multiple backgrounds
Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
over multiple years
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country
in year 2020
17
PART OF THE MONSANTO BASF YIELD AND STRESS R&D COLLABORATION
18. SUMMARY
On Track in 2008, Growth Drivers Continue to Set Stage for
Growth Through 2012
GROSS PROFIT OUTLOOK BY SEGMENT
2007-2012F
$10,000 TOTAL GROSS
All Other Agricultural Productivity
PROFIT GROWS
Roundup and Other Glyphosate-based Herbicides TO >2X
$8,000 2007 BASELINE
Seeds & Genomics
$6,000
$4,000
GROWTH COMES
FROM SEEDS &
$2,000
TRAITS
$0
2007 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F
U.S. Corn Int’l Corn Cotton Vegetables R&D Pipeline
Soybeans
• Expand seed • Establish and • Prepare for • Accelerate U.S. • Reinvigorate • Largest-ever
footprint expand seed commercial traits and margins R&D field
footprint launch of breeding effort
• Drive trait • Integrate
Roundup
penetration • Drive trait • Drive int’l traits DeRuiter
Ready 2 Yield
penetration purchase
SmartStax Accelerated trait Roundup Ready Globalized $1B Vegetable Game-Changing
Platform platform 2 Yield Platform Cotton Platform Platform Launches
18
19. SUMMARY
Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of
Demand, Innovation and Execution
Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity:
More demand requires more YIELD
More yield requires more INNOVATION
More innovation delivers more GROWTH
19