Latam 2015 VNI Mobile Media prezo

Thomas Barnett, Jr. – Director, SP Thought Leadership
Feb 2015
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Update
Latin America (LATAM) Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
2014–2019
Shruti Jain – Senior Analyst
Arielle Sumits – Senior Analyst
Usha Andra – Senior Analyst

2© 2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)
Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership
Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study
focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
Global Mobile Speed Data
Global Forecast Data
VNI

Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
More Mobile
Connections
More Mobile
Users
Faster Mobile
Speeds
More Mobile
Video
By 2019:
Mobile
Momentum
Metrics
2014 2019
7.4 Billion 11.5 Billion
2014 2019
1.7 Mbps 4.0 Mbps
2014 2019
4.3 Billion 5.2 Billion
2014 2019
55% of
Traffic
72% of
Traffic

Latin America Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
More Mobile
Connections
More Mobile
Users
Faster Mobile
Speeds
More Mobile
Video
By 2019:
Mobile
Momentum
Metrics
2014 2019
770 Million 997 Million
2014 2019
1.4 Mbps 3.0 Mbps
2014 2019
472 Million 497 Million
2014 2019
53% of
Traffic
72% of
Traffic

Overview

By 2019, global mobile data
traffic will reach an annual run
rate of 292 exabytes per year,
up from 30 exabytes in 2014
(nearly 10-fold growth).
292X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000
65 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram)
6 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 10-Fold from 2014─2019
57% CAGR 2014–2019
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
10.8 EB
2.5 EB
10.7 EB
6.8 EB
4.2 EB
16.1 EB
24.3 EB
Exabytes
per Month

LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 10-Fold from 2014─2019
59% CAGR 2014–2019
0.2 0.4
0.6
0.9
1.4
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Exabytes
per Month

LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Country Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 10-Fold from 2014─2019
59% CAGR 2014–2019
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Rest of LATAM Brazil
Mexico Argentina
Chile
39%
30%
7%
6%
20%
4%
Exabytes
per Month

Year in Review—2014
Strong Growth Reported Worldwide
China ●  Mobile data traffic of China’s top 3 mobile operators grew 83% from mid-2013 to mid-2014
Japan ●  Mobile data traffic grew 43% from 3Q 2013 to 3Q 2014, according to Japan’s MIC
India
●  Bharti Airtel reported mobile data traffic growth of 95% between 3Q 2013 and 3Q 2014
●  Reliance Communications reported mobile data traffic growth of 75% between 3Q 2013 and 3Q 2014
Australia ●  As reported by ACMA, mobile data traffic grew 52% from mid-2013 to mid-2014*
Italy ●  As reported by AGCOM, mobile traffic in Italy in 3Q13 was up 45% Y/Y*
France ●  As reported by ARCEP, mobile traffic in France was up 107% from 3Q 2013 to 3Q 2014*
Germany ●  As reported by BNA, mobile traffic in Germany grew 71% in 2013*
Sweden ●  As reported by PTS, mobile traffic in Sweden grew 32 percent from mid-2013 to mid-2014
Korea ●  As reported by regulator KCC, mobile data traffic grew 36% between 1H13 and 1H14
Other ●  Vodafone’s European traffic grew 60% from 1Q 13-14 to 1Q14-15*
COUNTRY TREND
US ●  As reported by CTIA, mobile data traffic grew 120% in 2013*

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Latin America (LATAM)
Middle East and Africa (MEA)
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
Western Europe (WE)
North America (NA)
Asia Pacific (APAC)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions
MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (72%) from 2014–2019
APAC will Generate 39% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2019
57% CAGR 2014–2019
15.7%
39.1%
9.9%
12.5%
7.3%
14.4%
Exabytes
per Month
8.4%

Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month)
2014 2019GLOBAL
Global MB per Month
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Latin America
Central & Eastern Europe
Middle East & Africa
585
1,893
916
431
466
627
353
4,406
11,029
5,808
3,181
3,954
8,299
3,746
Asia-Pacific

Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month)
Sample Global Usage
3 Hours of Video
10 Video Calls
3 Hours of Audio
4 App Downloads
16 Hours of Video
15 Video Calls
10 Hours of Audio
20 App Downloads
2014 2019
585 MB
Traffic/month
4.4 GB
Traffic/month

Regional Mobile Networking Dynamics 2014 to 2019
Unique Conditions Affect Each Region’s Mobile Data Traffic Growth
Note: The numbers above pertain to 2019, and the CAGR’s are for 2014–2019 period.
Western Europe
REGION
No. of Mobile
Users
Asia Pacific
Central &
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Middle East &
Africa
North America
No. of Mobile
Devices / M2M
No. of Users
2GB / Month
Average
Mobile Speed
Mobile Data
Traffic
2.8B Users
+5% (CAGR)
5.4B Connects
+8% (CAGR)
844 Users
+46% (CAGR)
3.5 Mbps
+12% (CAGR)
9.5 EBs / Mo.
+58% (CAGR)
407M Users
+1% (CAGR)
1.0B Connects
+8% (CAGR)
497M Users
+3% (CAGR)
799M Users
+7% (CAGR)
320M Users
+2% (CAGR)
383M Users
+1 (CAGR)
179M Users
+49% (CAGR)
3.7 Mbps
+18% (CAGR)
3.5 EBs / Mo.
+71% (CAGR)
997M Connects
+5% (CAGR)
169M Users
+51% (CAGR)
2.9 Mbps
+16% (CAGR)
2.0 EBs / Mo.
+59% (CAGR)
1.7B Connects
+7% (CAGR)
269M Users
+56% (CAGR)
2.1 Mbps
+29% (CAGR)
3.0 EBs / Mo.
+72% (CAGR)
1.2B Connects
+22% (CAGR)
161M Users
+14% (CAGR)
6.4 Mbps
+18% (CAGR)
3.8 EBs / Mo.
+47% (CAGR)
1.2M Connects
+14% (CAGR)
147M Users
+26% (CAGR)
4.7 Mbps
+18% (CAGR)
2.4 EBs / Mo.
+48% (CAGR)

Drivers

Global Mobile Users
From 4.3 Billion in 2014 to 5.2 Billion by 2019 at 4.3% CAGR
Global Mobile Users Growing 4X Faster than Global Population
North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe
Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific
2014: 294 M
2019: 320 M
CAGR 1.7%
2014: 367 M
2019: 383 M
CAGR 0.8%
2014: 382 M
2019: 407 M
CAGR 1.3%
2014: 427 M
2019: 497 M
CAGR 3.1%
2014: 561 M
2019: 799 M
CAGR 7.3%
2014: 2,228 M
2019: 2,844 M
CAGR 5.0%

Global Mobile Device and Connections
From 7.4 Billion in 2014 to 11.5 Billion by 2019 at 9% CAGR
2014: 432 M
2019: 1,155 M
CAGR 21.7%
2014: 612 M
2019: 1,179 M
CAGR 14.0%
2014: 690 M
2019: 1,025 M
CAGR 8.2%
2014: 770 M
2019: 997 M
CAGR 5.3%
2014: 1,200 M
2019: 1,676 M
CAGR 6.9%
2014: 3,733 M
2019: 5,439 M
CAGR 7.8%

Global Mobile Speed Growth
Average Mobile Speed Will Double from
1.7 Mbps (2014) to 3.9 Mbps (2019)
2.27-fold Growth
2.8 to 6.4 Mbps
2.3-fold Growth
2.0 to 4.7 Mbps
2.27-fold Growth
1.6 to 3.7 Mbps
2.1-fold Growth
1.4 to 2.9 Mbps
3.6-fold Growth
0.6 to 2.1 Mbps
1.7-fold Growth
2.0 to 3.1 Mbps

Global Mobile Video Traffic
By 2019, Video Will Drive 72% of Mobile Traffic, Up from 55% in 2014
75% of traffic by 2019
54% CAGR
56% CAGR
83% CAGR
69% CAGR
84% CAGR
67% CAGR

Global Mobile Data Traffic
Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 10-Fold from
2.5 EB/month in 2014 to 24.3 EB/month by 2019
6.8-fold Growth
563 to 3,823 PB/mo
7.1-fold Growth
341 to 2,414 PB/mo
14.4-fold Growth
242 to 3,496 PB/mo
10.1-fold Growth
201 to 2,035 PB/mo
15.3-fold Growth
199 to 3,043 PB/mo
9.7-fold Growth
977 to 9,503 PB/mo

Top Trends

VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019
Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Continuing Shift to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cellular Network Advances (2G, 3G, 4G)
3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Usage Increases
5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type
6 Identifying A Potential Mobile App “Wildcard”—VoWiFi
7 Profiling Mobile Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
8 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
9 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data Makes Comeback
10 Tracking IPv6—Significant Global Mobile Adoption

Global Mobile Device Growth by Type
By 2019, Smartphones Will Attain Largest Share to Reach Nearly 40%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.2%) Tablets (1%,3%)
Laptops (3%,2%) M2M (7%,28%)
Smartphones (29%,40%) Non-Smartphones (61%,27%)
9% CAGR 2014–2019
Billions of
Devices
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share

Latin America Mobile Device Growth by Type
By 2019, Smartphones Will Attain Largest Share to Reach Over 47%
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.1%) Tablets (1%,3%)
Laptops (3%,3%) M2M (6%,21%)
Smartphones (26%,47%) Non-Smartphones (63%,26%)
5% CAGR 2014–2019
Billions of
Devices
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share

Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections
By 2019, Smart Devices will Have 54% Share of Total Devices & Connections
9% CAGR 2014–2019
Billions of
Devices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Non-smart Devices and Connections
Smart Devices and Connections
54%
49%
43%37%31%26%
46%
51%
57%
63%
69%
74%
* Smart devices are those having advanced multi-media/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity.

Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections
By 2019, Smart Devices will Have 59% Share of Total Connections
7% CAGR 2014–2019
Billions of
Devices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Non-smart Devices and Connections
Smart Devices and Connections
59%
52%
44%37%31%26%
41%
48%
56%
63%
69%
74%
*Excludes LPWA

Smart Devices & Connections Share
Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections
2014 2019
Global
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
26%
72%
48%
20%
24%
18%
11%
59%
89%
78%
61%
56%
62%
41%
Latin America
*Excludes LPWA

Globally, in 2014, a
smart device
generated 22 times
more traffic than a
non-smart device.

Global Impact of Smart Devices &
Connections on Mobile Traffic
By 2019, Smart Devices Will Have 97% Share of Traffic
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Non-smart Traffic
Smart Traffic
97%
95%
94%
92%
90%
88%
12%
3%
5%
6%
8%
10%
57% CAGR 2014–2019
Exabytes
per Month

Smart Devices & Connections Traffic Share
Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Traffic
2014 2019
Global
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
88%
99%
95%
85%
86%
77%
78%
97%
100%
99%
98%
96%
96%
93%
Latin America

0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Global Connections by Network Type
2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
44%
62%
32%
6%
26%
22%
45%
38%
15%
Billions of
Devices or
Connections
2%
8%
*Includes M2M

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Latin America Connections by Network Type
0.3%
66%
33%
1%
55%
21%
52%
8%
Billions of
Devices or
Connections
23%
*Includes M2M
40%

Connections by Network Type
Regional Share by 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Global 21% 44% 26% 8%
BY REGION
Asia Pacific 23% 46% 26% 5%
Central and Eastern Europe 20% 51% 22% 7%
Latin America 23% 55% 21% 0.3%
Middle East and Africa 32% 54% 14% 0.2%
North America 5% 20% 42% 32%
Western Europe 15% 31% 38% 15%
*Includes M2M,
Includes LPWA

0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G
48%
62%
31%
7%
31%
21%
45%
38%
17%
Billions of
Devices or
Connections
*Excludes M2M

0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G
58%65%
34%
1%
24%
18%
55%
37%
9%
Billions of
Devices or
Connections
*Excludes M2M

0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share – M2M
35%
67%
32%
1%
29%
23%42%
38%
7%
Billions of
Devices or
Connections
13%
13%

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Millions of
M2M
Connections
2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share – M2M
46%
84%
16%
0.2%
43%
10%
1%

0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
67%
1%
Global M2M Connection Growth
Global M2M Connections will Grow 7-Fold from 2014-2019;
By 2019, Nearly Half of Global M2M Connections Will Be 3G or Better
32%
35%
29%
23%
3.2 B
2.3 B
1.6 B
1.1 B
0.7 B
0.5 B
* In 2014, 4G accounts for 1% and LPWA accounts for 0.2% of global mobile M2M connections.
45% CAGR 2014–2019
Billions
of M2M
Connections
13%

0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2G 3G 4G LPWA
84%
1%
Latin America M2M Connection Growth
Latin American M2M Connections will Grow 4-Fold from 2014-2019;
By 2019, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will Be 3G or Better
16%
46%
10%
43%
205 M
161 M
124 M
93 M
67 M
48 M
* In 2014, 4G accounts for 0.2% and LPWA accounts for 0.0% of LATAM mobile M2M connections.
34% CAGR 2014–2019
Millions
of M2M
Connections

By 2019, M2M modules will be
28% of total global mobile
devices and connections and will
account for 5% (1.2 EBs/month)
of mobile data traffic.

0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
109 M
441 M
1.9%
Global Connected Wearable Devices
Global Connected Wearables will Grow 5-Fold from 2014-2019;
By 2019, 7 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity
578 M
236 M
170 M
325 M
40% CAGR 2014–2019
Millions of
Connected
Wearables
% with
Embedded
Cellular
Connectivity
7.3%

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Western Europe (18%,18%)
North America (30%,33%)
Middle East & Africa (4%,4%)
Latin America (6%,5%)
Central & Eastern Europe (8%,9%)
Asia Pacific (34%,32%)
441 M
109 M
Regional Connected Wearable Devices
North America Will Have the Largest Share by 2019
578 M
326 M
236 M
171 M
40% CAGR 2014–2019
Millions of
Connected
Wearables
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 regional wearable devices share

Wearable Device Usage
Wearable Camera Use Case Scenario (300 MB/Hour)
Only 2 hours of wearable
camera usage* can
generate more than the
average monthly traffic per
typical user in 2014.
*Assumes live streaming over a cellular network

15 33
61
106
175
277
2.0%
9.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic
Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 18-Fold from 2014-2019
78% CAGR 2014–2019
Monthly
Traffic (PB)
% Embedded
Cellular
Traffic

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Western Europe (10%,12%)
North America (37%,39%)
Middle East & Africa (2%,3%)
Latin America (2%,3%)
Central & Eastern Europe (5%,9%)
Asia Pacific (44%,34%)
Regional Connected Wearable Devices Traffic
North America will Maintain the Largest Share
78% CAGR 2014–2019
Monthly
Traffic (PB)
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 regional wearable devices traffic share

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)
Mobile Audio (8%,7%)
Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (36%,19%)
Mobile Video (55%,72%)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps
Video to Exceed 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019
57% CAGR 2014–2019
Exabytes
per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 mobile data traffic shares

0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)
Mobile Audio (8%,7%)
Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (38%,19%)
Mobile Video (53%,72%)
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps
Video to Account for 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019
59% CAGR 2014–2019
Exabytes
per Month
* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share

81% 83% 85% 86% 88% 90%
19% 17% 15% 14% 12% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic
Mobile Cloud Traffic
Global Mobile Cloud Traffic
Cloud Accounted for 81% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2014
Cloud will Account for 90% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019
•  IP Voice
•  File Sharing
•  File/App Downloading
•  Video Streaming
•  Audio Streaming
•  Online Gaming
•  Social Networking
•  Web Browsing
•  Online Storage

Top Traffic Generating Smartphone Apps
Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps
(Smartphone)
Facebook Social Media
YouTube Video Streaming
Browser Web Browsing
Netflix Video Streaming
Maps Utilities
Spotify Audio Streaming
Instagram Image Sharing
WhatsApp Communications
tinyCam Monitor Video Monitoring
SoundCloud Audio Streaming
Hulu Plus Video Streaming
Email Communications
Pandora Audio Streaming
Twitter Communications
Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps
(Smartphone)
WhatsApp Communications
Tumblr Social Media
Skype Communications
Dropbox Cloud File Storage
Email Communications
Skydrive Cloud File Storage
Viber Communications
Hulu Plus Video Streaming

Top Traffic Generating Tablet Apps
Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps
(Tablet)
4shared Social Media
TubeMate Video Downloading
Crunchyroll Video Streaming
TV 2 Sporten Video Streaming
O2 TV Video Streaming
EA Games Online Gaming
Viber Communications
Maps Utilities
Ztory Publication
VPN Business Application
Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps
(Tablet)
tinyCam Monitor Video Monitoring
Xfinity TV Player Video Streaming
Showtime Anytime Video Streaming
Twitch TV Video Streaming
VLC Video Player Video Streaming
TWCable TV Video Streaming
CANAL+ Video Streaming
TuneIN Radio Audio Streaming
NY Times Publication

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload*
54% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019
46% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014
46%
54%
Exabytes
per Month
*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

0
1
2
3
4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Offload*
46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019
35% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014
54%
46%
Exabytes
per Month

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2G 3G 4G
Mobile Traffic
Offload Traffic
Global Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2019
4G Devices Offload More Traffic Than 3G and 2G
57%
46%
44%
56%
54% 43%
Mobile and
Offload
Traffic from
Mobile-
Connected
Devices

Globally, the amount of traffic
offloaded from tablets will be
70% by 2019.
Globally, the amount of traffic
offloaded from smartphones will
be 54% by 2019.

0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (61% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (11% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi (26% CAGR)
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology
Starting in 2017, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic
37%
51%
12%
21% CAGR 2013–2018
Exabytes
per Month

0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (67% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi (22% CAGR)
LATAM IP Traffic by Local Access Technology
Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Exceeds Fixed/Wired Traffic
29%
56%
15%
21% CAGR 2013–2018
Exabytes
per Month

• Wi-Fi capacity trading
• Transaction platform
• Internet of things
• Context awareness
• HetNet Wi-Fi + mobile
• Connected car (in-car Wi-Fi)
Total Incremental
Hotspots
Existing Growth Future
•  Pay-as-you-go
•  Free access driving other
services (Retail free Wi-Fi)
•  Managed services (venues
and outdoor)
•  Cellular offload (user driven)
•  Added value for broadband
subscription
•  Advertising and sponsorship
• Cellular offload (carrier
driven)
• Community Wi-Fi/homespots
• Carrier-grade VoWiFi
• TV everywhere
• Large events
• Big data analytics
• Public transportation Wi-Fi
Global Wi-Fi Hotspot Coverage and Availability
Total Public
WLAN
Hotspots
2014: 6.9M
2019: 14.7M
Total Public WLAN +
Community Hotspots
2014: 34.2M
2019: 54.9M

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
VoWiFi VoLTE VoIP
71%
VoWiFi Minutes of Use Exceed VoLTE by 2018
VoWiFi Accounts for 53% of Mobile IP Voice by 2019
53%
41%
Minutes of
Use
(Trillions)
per Year
Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019
6%29%

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
VoWiFi Traffic
VoLTE Traffic
VoIP
VoWiFi Traffic Exceeds VoLTE by 2017
VoWiFi Will Be More Widely Available than VoLTE
Petabytes
per Year
Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Wi-Fi Connects Nearly 3.5x Cellular Connected Tablets and PCs
by 2019
# of Cellular Capable Devices
542 Million
Tablets
PCs
# of Wi-Fi Capable Devices
1.9 Billion

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2-2.5G
3-3.5G
4G
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G
Globally, 4G Will Support 68% of Mobile Traffic by 2019
40%
68%
30%
10%
50%
2%
Exabytes
per Month

0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2-2.5G
3-3.5G
4G
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G
In LATAM, 4G Will Support 55% of Mobile Traffic by 2019
10%
55%
43%
14%
76%
2%
Exabytes
per Month

Globally, in 2014, a 4G
connection generated
2.2 GB/mo, 10X higher
than the 217 MB/mo for
non-4G connections.

In Latin America, a 4G
connection generated 2.2
GB/mo in 2014, 9X higher
than the 238 MB/mo for
non-4G connections.

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Average Hour Traffic
Busy Hour Traffic
Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic
Busy Hour Is 64% Higher than Average Hour in 2014, 84% in 2019
Tbps

Global Average Mobile Connection
(Devices and M2M); Traffic per Month
2014 2019
Global MB per Month
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
339
1,302
558
261
262
351
166
2,120
3,308
2,048
2,042
1,747
3,412
1,815
Latin America
GLOBAL

Mobile Device Data Traffic
2014 Mobile Device Data Traffic Generation Comparisons
M2M Module
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
Laptop 119 X
(monthly basic mobile
phone data traffic)=
94 X
37 X
6 X
3 X

Average Cellular Traffic Per Mobile Device Type
Note: In 2014, 4G smartphones generated 2GBs/month and 4G tablets generated 3GBs/month.
2014 2019
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
MBs per Month MBs per Month
70 366
141 479
819 3,981
2,076 10,767
2,641 5,589
M2M Module
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
Laptop
Non-Smartphone 22 105

Average Cellular Traffic Per Device Type (LATAM)
Note: In 2014, 4G smartphones generated 1.3GBs/month and 4G tablets generated 5GBs/month.
2014 2019
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
MBs per Month MBs per Month
40 339
56 289
537 2,823
3,105 14,549
2,824 6,288
M2M Module
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
Laptop
Non-Smartphone 7 36

Mobile Network Speeds Increase 2.4X by 2019
Average Cell Connection Speed (1.7 Mbps in 2014)
Will Grow at a 19% CAGR—Reaching Nearly 4.0 Mbps by 2019
2014 2019
Global Mbps
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
1.7
2.8
2.0
1.4
2.0
1.6
0.6
3.9
6.4
4.7
2.9
3.5
3.7
2.1
Latin America
GLOBAL

Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds
Wi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2014-2019
2014 2019
Global Mbps
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
8.1
12.3
11.0
5.7
11.3
10.7
4.6
10.2
15.1
15.4
9.3
16.1
15.7
8.8
Latin America
GLOBAL

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tablets
Smartphones
All Mobile Devices
Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type
Tablet Speeds are 3.3x Higher than Average by 2019
Smartphone Speeds are 2.6x Higher than Average by 2019
13 Mbps
10 Mbps
4 Mbps
Mbps

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tablets
Smartphones
All Mobile Devices
LATAM Mobile Speeds by Device Type
Tablet Speeds are 2.3x Higher than Average by 2019
Smartphone Speeds are 1.8x Higher than Average by 2019
6.6 Mbps
5.4 Mbps
3.0 Mbps
Mbps

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4G
3G
All Network Types
2G
Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type
4G Speeds will be 4X Higher than Average by 2018
3-3.5G Speeds will be 1.2X Higher than Average by 2019
14.2 Mbps
5 Mbps
110 Kbps
4 Mbps
Mbps

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4G
3G
All Network Types
2G
LATAM Mobile Speeds by Network Type
4G Speeds will be 2.9X Higher than Average by 2018
3-3.5G Speeds will be Nearly Equal to Average by 2019
8.5 Mbps
3.0 Mbps
90 Kbps
2.0 Mbps
Mbps

52%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-10 Jun-14
Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010–2014
Top 1 Percent Generates 18 Percent in June 2014
Percentage
of Top 1
Percent to
Total MB/mo.

Top 20% Users Consume 85% of Monthly Traffic
18%
46%
65%
85%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%
Top Tier
Percentage
Usage
(June 2014)

Top 20% Users Consume nearly 4 Gigabytes per month *
15.2
7.6
5.3
3.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%
* Study limited to few Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
Top Tier
Percentage
Usage
(June 2014)

7% 25%
79%
96%
99%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Greater than
5 GB
Greater than
2 GB
Greater than
200 MB
Greater than
20 MB
Greater than
1 MB
7 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per Month
25 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month *
Percentage
of Users
(June 2014)

894
MB/mo
1.3
GB/mo
1.3
GB/mo
1.6
GB/mo
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Android iOS
Jun-14
Oct-13
iOS Usage Surpasses Android
46% of plans54% of plans 42% of plans
58% of plans
Megabytes
per Month

Tiered Plans Outnumber Unlimited Plans;
Unlimited Plans Continue to Lead in Data Consumption *
63% of plans 55% of plans
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Tier 1 Operators All Operators
Unlimited
Tiered
0.98 GB
1.9 GB 2.6 GB
1.1 GB
Percentage
Number of
Mobile Data
Plans
(June 2014)

Number of Shared Plans Increase
Shared plan usage growing marginally faster than regular plans *
21% of plans
28% of plans
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct-13 Jun-14
Regular Plans
Shared Plans
865 MB
1.1 GB 1.5 GB
1.3 GB
Percentage
Number of
Mobile Data
Plans

0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2.0B
Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections
By 2019, 59% of Mobile Devices/Connections Will be IPv6-Capable
6.2B
25% CAGR 2014–2019
Number of
Devices
(B)

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
201M
LATAM IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections
By 2019, 62% of Mobile Devices/Connections Will be IPv6-Capable
617M
25% CAGR 2014–2019
Number of
Devices
(B)

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Billions
12.6
Global IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
By 2019, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 52% of Mobile Data Traffic
0.3
107% CAGR 2014–2019
Exabytes
per Month

0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Billions
1.1
LATAM IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
By 2019, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 56% of Mobile Data Traffic
0.03
108% CAGR 2014–2019
Exabytes
per Month

Conclusion

Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast, 2013–2018
Key Takeaways / Summary
Global Mobile Data Traffic
Global Mobile Traffic Offload
Global Mobile Network Speeds
Global Mobile Smart Devices Traffic
Global Mobile Devices/Connections
Global Mobile Video
By 2019, mobile data traffic will reach 24.3 EBs/per month
(292 EBs annually).
By 2019, 54% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to
Wi-Fi/small cell networks.
By 2019, smart devices will generate 97% of global
mobile data traffic.
By 2019, over 72% of the world’s mobile data traffic
will be video.
By 2019, avg mobile connection speed will more than
double (1.7 Mbps to 4.0 Mbps).
By 2019, there will be 1.5 mobile connections
per capita globally.
Global Mobile Users
By 2019, there will be 5.2 Billion global mobile users,
representing 69% of the global population.

Cisco VNI LATAM Mobile Forecast, 2013–2018
Key Takeaways / Summary
LATAM Mobile Data Traffic
LATAM Mobile Traffic Offload
LATAM Mobile Network Speeds
LATAM Mobile Smart Devices Traffic
LATAM Mobile Devices/Connections
LATAM Mobile Video
By 2019, mobile data traffic will reach 2.0 EBs/per month
(24.4 EBs annually).
By 2019, 46% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to
Wi-Fi/small cell networks.
By 2019, smart devices will generate 61% of LATAM’s
mobile data traffic.
By 2019, over 72% of LATAM’s mobile data traffic
will be video.
By 2019, avg mobile connection speed will more than
double (1.4 Mbps to 3.0 Mbps).
By 2019, there will be 1.5 mobile connections
per capita in Latin America (LATAM).
LATAM Mobile Users
By 2019, there will be 497 Million LATAM mobile users,
representing 76% of the LATAM population.

Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2014–2019
Get more info—see Tools and Resources
www.cisco.com/go/vni
traffic-inquiries@cisco.com

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