1. Making the Case for Investment in
Low Income Neighborhoods
2009 FLORIDA HOUSING COALITION
22nd Annual Affordable Housing Conference
September 2009
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2. A tale of two cities …
MARKET SIZE MARKET SIZE
Neighborhood A
Population: 367,426 Population: 504,226
Households: 137,577 Households: 179,471
MARKET BUYING POWER MARKET BUYING POWER
Median Household Income: $27,344 Median Household Income: $31,990
Average Household Income: $39,308 Average Household Income: $50,637
Aggregate Income: $5.4 Billion Aggregate Income: $9.1 Billion
Income per Acre: $386,074
Aggregate Informal Economy: (9.3%)
Income of New Home Buyers: $114,972
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000, Source: Social Compact Miami DrillDown 2008/2009
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3. Social Compact’s Capacity
DrillDowns Completed
20 cities completed
350 Underserved Neighborhoods
1.2 Million Additional Residents
$36 Billion Additional Buying Power
* 50 cities have approached Social Compact for DrillDown analyses
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4. What do we do with
better data?
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6. Census Challenge Program
Why Are Census Estimates Important?
Over 170 federal programs allocate $300 billion
annually using census estimate data
For every person not captured in census estimates, the
city loses $2,263 of state and federal funding
80% of retail investment deals use data derived from
the census to determine where and when to invest
Inaccurate census estimates greatly contribute to the
perception of the city
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7. Census Challenge Program
Social Compact Successes
Detroit, MI, (+47,000)
New Orleans, LA, (+50,000)
San Francisco, CA (+34,000)
Toledo, OH (+21,000)
Miami, FL (+15,000)
Together, Social Compact’s census challenges will
result in an additional $420 million state and federal
funding to the cities.
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9. 2007 Houston DrillDown Findings
Grocery Provider Distribution
Distribution of
grocery providers
overlaid with
grocery store sales
demand.
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11. Food Desert to Food Oasis
Providing East Access to Information: The Finder
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12. Small Business
Development
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13. Small Business
Business Environment Assessments
Using a large number of public and private business data providers including INFO USA, NETS, and
ESRI, Social Compact is creating detailed business environment profiles citywide and for tailored
geographies (i.e. neighborhoods, business districts, main streets).
The profiles contain an analysis of business health and performance, taking into consideration
the following business characteristics:
Size SMBE – Small, Minority Owned Business Enterprise
Age SWBE – Small, Women Owned Business Enterprises
Industry Local vs. National
Relocation Performance
Additional information includes:
Businesses headquartered in the city Top performing industries
Average rental price by location Top most prevalent industries
Detailed information is provided through a series of business profiles and descriptive maps
and charts.
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14. Small Business
Business Environment Assessments
Social Compact is currently working with WDCEP and DC government
on a scan of the District’s business environment, informing:
Business Development Strategies
Enterprise Zone location/impact
Attraction and retention strategies
Buy Local campaigns
Industry Change Analysis
Job growth/loss
Business Openings/Closings/Relocation
Automated process for tracking change
NEXT STEPS:
Expand this model to evaluate partnerships with federal agencies
and other CDFIs to explore small business development models
World Bank: Johannesburg, Bogota, Buenos Aires, Manila, Recife, Hanoi
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15. Uncover possible profitable sites per industry
Establish areas with high business
density for an industry.
Determine the overall demographic
and market characteristics of these
areas
Search for areas with similar
demographic and market
characteristics that do not have
businesses belonging to the industry in
question (potential profitable sites).
Overlay the information on possible
profitable sites with land codes and
other relevant site information (i.e.
nearby developments, vacant
properties).
This pilot analysis was possible thanks to ACCION USA’s loan data.
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16. Trade areas’ properties and store performance
Uncover trade area characteristics that are likely
to determine store performance by industry
Determine which are the stores that
are performing the best per industry
(i.e. barber shops, mini markets,
restaurants, etc.)
Determine if there are any common
demographic and market properties in
the stores’ trade areas
Establish, per industry, trade area
demographic and market properties
(indicators) that are likely to support
high performance stores.
This pilot analysis was possible thanks to ACCION USA’s loan data.
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18. Financial Services
Surveys of unbanked populations and consumer
expenditure patterns (Los Angeles, Miami)
Financial services finder (National): Financial
advice/counselors, CDCs, NHSA
Center for Financial Empowerment (New York City)
• Financial behavior analysis: household’s financial
practices, products usage and access to services.
• Program will leverage consumer credit bureau data as
well as rich data from organized local initiatives in
selected cities
Financial Diaries (Louisville)
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19. Financial Services
Financial Behavior Analysis (New York City)
Address level variables
Presence of traditional and non traditional financial institutions
Block group level variables
Underbanked proxy: range from 1 (unbanked) to 20 (most likely
banked)
Discretionary spending index: range from 0 to 100 (households
rates as top spenders)
Credit card usage and number of credit lines
Revolving bankcard balances
Bank card households and bank card holders
Collateral risk score
Tract level variables
Home loan approvals
Average income and ethnicity of new homebuyers
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20. Financial Services Provision
2007 Miami DrillDown Findings
Bill Payment Methods
Survey Results: Consumer Purchasing Patterns
100.0% Bill Payment Methods
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Liberty City Little Haiti Overtown Wynwood
Cash 83.5% 76.6% 79.9% 87.0%
Pay Day Loans 16.6% 42.9% 9.8% 10.8%
Credit Cards 27.0% 56.2% 20.9% 37.3%
Check cashing facilities 46.3% 63.2% 16.7% 29.9%
Personal Checks 26.8% 50.0% 29.8% 43.9%
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21. Individual’s Interest in Financial Products
Los Angeles: Financial Behavior Study
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
PERSONAL MONEY HEALTH BUSINESS CHECKING SMALL BUSINESS
PREPAID CARDS
LOANS TRANSFERS INSURANCE INSURANCE ACCOUNT LOAN S
White 15.7% 9.8% 49.0% 21.6% 53.0% 16.0% 7.9%
African American 32.3% 11.9% 69.6% 34.3% 53.5% 27.7% 10.0%
Asian 31.3% 43.8% 56.3% 50.0% 75.0% 62.5% 0.0%
Hispanic/Latino (non indigenous) 24.5% 39.2% 49.5% 18.9% 38.3% 22.8% 13.2%
Hispanic/Latino (indigenous) 18.8% 43.6% 44.1% 17.3% 36.3% 15.0% 20.0%
Other 35.7% 21.4% 57.1% 21.4% 50.0% 14.3% 21.4%
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25. Foreclosure Tool Indicators
Number of foreclosures (2005-2008) by month/quarter/ Number of loans originated not intended for primary
year/cumulative occupancy by year (2003-2008; by census tract)
Number of notices (2005-2008) by month/quarter/ Average/Aggregate loan value by year (2003-2008; by
year/cumulative census tract)
Number of market rate, arms-length transactions (2005- Top 10 high cost loan originators by year (2003-2008; by
2008) by month/quarter/year/cumulative census tract)
Average/Median foreclosure sale price (2005-2008) by Top 10 high cost loan purchasers by year (2003-2008; by
month/quarter/year/cumulative census tract)
Average/Median market sale price (2005-2008) by Average income of new home buyers by year (2003-2008;
month/quarter/year/cumulative by census tract)
Average/Median current assessed value (2008) Ethnicity of new home buyers by year (2003-2008; by
Number of ARM resets forthcoming over next 36 months census tract)
(as of June 2008) Total population (2008; by block group)
Number of properties with tax liens (as of June 2008) Population density (2008; by block group)
Average/Median value of tax liens outstanding (as of June Number of households (2008; by block group)
2008) Average/Median/Aggregate household income (2008; by
Top 10 institutions holding REOs (2005-2008) by block group)
month/quarter/year/cumulative Income density (2008; by block group)
Address-level Property Sale Prices and Dates (as of 1995) Number of owner-occupied units (2008; by block group)
Automated Value Models (non-distressed and distressed) Number of renter-occupied units (2008; by block group))
Number of new loans originated by year (2003-2008; by New construction permits (2008; by block group)
census tract) Additions/Alterations/Repairs permits (2008; by block group)
Number of high cost loans originated by year (2003-2008; Banks per capita (Banks per 10,000 people) (2008; by block
by census tract) group)
Number of high cost refinances originated by year (2003- Nontraditional Financial Institutions per capita (Pay Day
2008; by census tract) Loans/Pawn Shops, etc per 10,000 people) (2008; by block
Number of loans originated intended for primary group)
occupancy by year (2003-2008; by census tract) Owner Occupied Buildings (2008; by block group)
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26. Additional indicators
Property Characteristics (Detailed Characteristics, eg. 1-car Garage, 2-Car
Garage, # of Bedrooms, Age, Masonry, Central Air, Fire Place, two Story, Attic
Finished, Basement Finished, etc).
Short Sales/Distressed Sales
Loan Performance (by zipcode)
Debt Information on Loan Characteristics
Loan-to-Value
Current FICO scores
Employment Data: Population employed/Population unemployed (granularity
of the data not clear yet)
Migration Data (this data tracks where residents have moved to/from we only
have data on Detroit residents so it covers to/from movement of residents of
Detroit but not of persons migrating to Detroit – say from Chicago).
A. Where Detroiters have moved within Detroit, tri-county, MI, out of state
B. Resident “Churn” within Detroit (moved to/from)
C. Ethnicity of this population
D. Income of this population
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35. Making the Case for Investment in
Low Income Neighborhoods
John Talmage, President and CEO
Social Compact
738 7th St., SE, Washington, DC 20003
jtalmage@socialcompact.org
2009 FLORIDA HOUSING COALITION
22nd Annual Affordable Housing Conference
September 2009
35 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact