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Your Retirement   Welcome to the fourth edition of Your Retirement, our monthly web-newsletter with information and education that can help you with your retirement planning efforts. Feel free to use this information and to also pass it along to your friends and associates. If you are interested in additional information that can help you, be sure to check out our web site;  retirementplanningconsultants.com or contact Robert R. Julian, at rrj1@cornell.edu  ® RETIREMENT PLANNING CONSULTANTS A Guide To Your Retirement Planning - Volume 1 - Number 4 Saving – Investing For Retirement---Twelve Time-Tested Core Principles In our March, 2004 Newsletter we offered principle #1 ---Stocks (Stock Mutual Funds) offer the best opportunity to participate in the long-term growth of the economy.  In April, principle #2—Buy only what you understand.  In May, principle #3--- Invest in a combination of stocks for long term growth and bonds for stability and income  Here is Principle #4 –Asset Allocation and Diversification  Does Matter. The first step in building a successful portfolio is to diversify across several asset classes.  Never have too many eggs in one basket.  Owning just a few stocks or even a lot of stocks in one sector invites trouble.  Any one class of assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, cash) will have its day in the doghouse and its day in the sun.  Any one stock can turn out to be a huge winner but it can also be a huge loser.  June 2004 Your greatest disappointments will come from a failure to allocate your money in the different asset classes---stocks, bonds, cash --- and to diversify within those asset classes.  To make sure that you capture the historical advantage of stocks, your portfolio should include a broad range of companies---growth, value, small-cap and large-cap, technology, etc.  That’s why you’ve got to own them all in a mix that’s right for your age, income, responsibilities and tolerance for risk.  Some research indicates that allocating a portfolio into various types of investments is far more important than the choice of specific securities. Instant diversification occurs when you make index investing (mutual funds) a core piece of your portfolio.  Every market goes through periodic downturns.  An index investment in the total market provides you with diversification in small, medium and large companies.  Indexing enables an investor to always keep pace with the market without effort.  It will not rule out risk but index investors predictably receive the market return.  With index investing, you don’t have to worry about your fund manager picking bad stocks or loading up on cash just before a market rally.  It takes a lot of anxiety out of stock market investing.  Whatever happens to the market, that’s what you get. Broad diversification rules out extraordinary losses relative to the whole market but it also, by definition, rules out extraordinary gains.  What You Should Know:  Should You Lobby Your Employer for a Better 401(k), 403b, 457 Plan? Don’t like the investment options or rules in your plan?  Chances are that if you are unhappy, so are ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
your co-workers.  Although you don’t have a specific right to demand changes in your organization’s plan, you can influence some change.  Don’t be shy.  Employers do listen.  They know that an effective, efficient plan is a plus for the organization in attracting and keeping talented employees.  Ted Benna, President of the 401(k) Association and originator of the 401(k) plan, says, “Get involved.  It’s your plan.  Ask for what you want.”  The typical input from employees on their plans usually deal with the variety and investment choices you have and the rules that govern the plan.  Most experts feel that it is usually easier to change the investment options than it is to change plan rules.  What steps can you take if you are unhappy? 1.  What are you unhappy with?   The  choices of investments---  index funds, large cap, small cap, value, international stocks) --- matching contributions  from your employer (not enough, too much company stock)--- education – advice  for employees on investing--- fees and expenses are too high- -- funds with lower turnover of stocks --- better communication  --- (not enough information or not often enough)--- loan-hardship - provisions .  If you don’t speak up, they may not be aware of your and perhaps your co-workers problems.  2.  Who Is In Charge?   Work within the system.  The big decisions (plan rules, scope of investments, etc) are made at a higher level but the benefit director can usually help you with what you want. The benefits director-administrator may not necessarily be the enemy.  Sometimes, just a simple explanation of your problem may be enough to get the problem resolved or to get the wheels moving in the right direction. 3.  Get Some Help.   You may not be the only person in your organization that is unhappy.  Talk to your co-workers (perhaps form an employee group) and other individuals who work at other organizations.  This will give you the chance to find allies in your organization and perhaps find out how other organizations are handling similar problems.  Also help yourself by doing some research. If you and your group feel that the funds in your plan are not matching up with specific benchmarks for appropriate investments, find the information you need and present it to your benefits director-employer.  In your research, you may find that your organization’s competitor does better in matching contributions.  That’s powerful information.  Being informed allows you to be well prepared and persuasive. -2- 4.  Be Persistent---But Patient.   You don’t want to be a pest but if you feel that your requests are not being responded to or they won’t budge, present your case once again to your benefits director. If, after doing this, you still are not satisfied, you may have to take your request to the top executive in charge of benefits or the company president.  But patience is also required.  Hey, you’re not the only person who is busy, busy at work.  A Question To Ask Yourself:  Did You - Do You – Will You Buy On A Hot Tip? A couple of years ago, I was out of town visiting family in Boston on the first day of November.  It was afternoon and I was watching one of those “Financial – Wall Street” programs.  The program host was gushing about “one of today’s hot IPOs” (initial public offering)---“Akamai Technologies Inc.”  One of his guest experts, in response to a question said, “The opening price on Akamai this morning was $70 and right now it is sitting on $150. This baby is taking off.  It looks like a winner.”  The program host asked him what the company did.  He said that it was “a part of the internet infrastructure.”  He never said what Akamai did, what products they made, what the market was, the competition, financial position, competitors, etc.  Would you buy on the basis, of this “hot tip?”  I was tempted---“maybe I should get in and get a piece of the action.”  Apparently a lot of people were having the same thoughts.  The next day the price was up to $200 a share.  And, it kept going up, and up and up.  But, even though I had some misgivings about not getting on the bandwagon, I stayed on the sidelines.  I was obeying one of my main rules about investing---if you want to make money with your investments, you must override your emotions.  Money Magazine (1/1999) states that Sir John Templeton (1935 -) is “arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century.”  Templeton states,  “To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward.”  In the middle of January, 2000,  Akamai hit $340 a share.  I was tempted to kick myself in the “you know where.”  “If I got in at $159, I would have doubled my investment.”  But suddenly it started to fall and fall and fall.  By April, 2001, it sold for $8 a share.  In 2002, it was priced under $1 a share.  In May 2004, it was selling at $12.70 a share. Why did Akamai fall so hard?  A lot of reasons.
As soon as the price was high enough, the profit takers (the venture capital firms, officers of the company cashing out on their options, Wall Street pros,  some who had “insider information, some were “hyping” the stock in an attempt to move the price higher, individual investors) were taking profits).  Once the selling started, it didn’t stop.   I felt sorry for the average investors who bought on emotion---“I’ve got to get a piece of this action.”  It isn’t much fun to buy in at $200, $250, $300, $340 a share and then watch your investment drop and drop and drop while you are still holding on and waiting for a rebound.  What am I trying to say here?   Obey the main rules when investing your money.  Do your research. We work hard for the money we earn.  We should work just as hard on our research into an investment before we give them our money.  Do you – Did You – Will You Buy On A Hot Tip?  Hot tips often turn cold.  Stone cold. A Retirement Diary: My Friend Margaret  - She’s Alone Now Even though many people plan on going into retirement with a spouse or friend, some will become widows or widowers. If you're a woman, it's likely you will outlive your husband.  That's what happened to my friend Margaret.  Margaret is 68 years old.  She taught in the local school district for 35 years.  When Margaret was 64, her husband of 42 years suddenly passed away.  That was a shock: "I just expected to go on as I was doing... living with my husband and doing the things we did together with the exception that I wouldn't be going to work every day.  It just didn't work out that way.”  Margaret answered several of my questions. Q.  What was the most important thing you had to consider in planning for your retirement?   A.  I had to do a lot of thinking in the year before I retired what I was going to do all by myself. I didn't and I guess not too many people do think that their spouse might not be with  them in retirement.  I certainly didn't plan for that, and that sure had an impact on my plans. Q.  What's your biggest problem in retirement?   A.  I guess my biggest problem is not having a husband and having to live all by myself.  There is still a considerable amount of grief to contend with, and there are other problems---a single woman can't go out as freely as a person with an escort.  There are emotional problems as well. Q.  If you had to do it all over again, would you do anything differently?   A.   Probably save more money---that would be a help.  I'd probably learn how to repair a faucet, fix an electric plug and some wiring.  I'd probably not get nervous over the furnace then because I'd know what was expected of it.  I think every woman should have a course in home mechanics.  That's one of my problems.  My husband took care of everything in the house.  Generally I'm pretty well set.  One of my students in school said, What are you quitting for?  You're doing good.  I told him, I think I've worked long enough and hard enough.  Now I'm going to play for the rest of my life. Q.  What advice can you give to someone thinking about retirement?   A.   I think you have to be sure of yourself.  You have to know what you want out of retirement.  I read a book recently about a widow whose problem when she was left alone was not material things but the fact that she had an identity crisis.  Her husband and her family had been so much apart of her everyday life that she had a crisis when she was in a different situation of being alone without a husband.  It's tough to think about that before it happens, but perhaps you should. Q.  Tell us about the problems of being alone.   A.  The problem is the problem.  The problem is being alone.  In the case of the wife, the separation from the lover, the friend, the partner, is traumatic.  It's something that in four years, I can't get over it.  There is that central problem of grief.  Even though I have a very happy nature and enjoy doing things very much, the problem of being alone goes right along with you all the time.  I'm trying to work on that and maybe it will improve in the future .  A single person in retirement has very special problems.  Couples are invited out to dinner more often than single people.  I don't drive and when something comes up, transportation is a concern.  Going out alone in the evening on the streets is a concern but I must say that's more of a concern for my children than me.  I can't get over the feeling that I  -3- 1. What is the company’s business?   What products services do they offer?  Are they selling products – services? 2. What is the state of their finances?   Do they have a lot of cash? Do they have a lot of debt? Are they earning money?  If not, when will they? 3. Is it in a strong competitive position?   How does it compare to others in its industry? 4. Is the price right?   Is it worth $. $. $? 5. If you can’t explain it to someone so that they can understand it and perhaps convince them, perhaps you shouldn’t invest in it .
-4- grew up with, that I can go anyplace and do as I please, but I guess now I'm becoming a bit more cautious. Q.  How do you cope?   A . Just by living.  I go on as much as I always did doing the things that I enjoy doing.  I can't say that I have to run every minute and keep busy to cope.  I can be quiet.  In fact, I like to be alone quite a bit of the time.  I go out with my  friends to concerts and plays.  It's not a matter of doing things although a lot of people suggest that.  It's more a matter of having a happy nature and being able to accept a situation as you have it.  My biggest adjustment wasn't to retirement but to the loss of my husband, and that occurred only a year before I retired.  He was a heart patient at the time, and I had thought about retiring earlier because of that, but I didn't.  Maybe I should have. Q.  What advice can you give to the single person in retirement?   A.   Probably the old advice to know thyself.  What you want to do and where you're at and where you're going.  I never had an identity problem but I understand a lot of people do.  You have to know what your situation is, understand it, and then do what you have to do to get to where you want to be.  Does that make sense?  Thank you Margaret. Have you discussed with your spouse...your friend the possibility and implications of living alone in retirement?  What does your spouse or friend know about your pension plan, your Social Security, your insurance coverage, your assets and debts, your important papers?  Is there someone your partner can go to for financial advice?  Q.  What can you learn from Margaret's story?   A Continuing Problem:  Avoiding Bad Investments As I was reading Gretchen Morgenson’s column in the Business Section of the New York Times a few weeks ago (4/18/2004), I thought about a newspaper column I wrote a couple of years ago.  The column dealt with a couple of individuals in the Binghamton, New York area who lost money because of a “swindler.”  Gretchen’s column dealt with Norman Huff of Dalton, Ohio who lost $225,000 from his retirement account of $386,000 because of some bad investments by Michael G. Dobbins, a broker.  In the Binghamton, N.Y. area, Mary Nider lost the money she had "counted on toward nursing home care if need be.  My heart turns to a lump each time I think of this ill-fated decision to invest."  The money was from selling stock she inherited from her husband who died.  She asks, "What more can I count on?  Welfare?"  William Urdanick and his wife lost $225,532 ---"three generations of hard work, scrimping and saving.  The loss was all the money we had. One moment you have a financially stable life and the next moment your whole life changes."  Sue Proper lost income from the sale of her modest house.  "Instead of being secure, I am in a lot of debt.  My life has been a living hell since this happened."  Seventy-six year Florence Borucki states, "I get a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach every time I think of it.  He stole very hard-earned dollars from me.  I did without things to save that money and now it's gone."  Mary, William and his wife, Sue and Florence are just five of some 135 Binghamton, N.Y. area residents, who are cited by Gannett New Service reporter William Ringle, as "victims of swindler Paul Meyers, who stole $40 to $50 million."  "In the Binghamton area, Meyers' phony real estate investment schemes mainly wiped out the life savings of old people who were counting on the money to eke out Social Security or meager pensions." These individuals, like a number of other planning for retirement investors, "were attracted by the 14 percent interest that Meyers offered."  "Any early doubts they may have harbored were allayed when they began getting the hefty interest payments that were based on the Ponzi scheme.  Money from later investments is used to pay high "interest" on earlier ones.  Eventually, the money runs out." What happened to "swindler Myers?"  U.S. District Judge Harold H. Greene, "hemmed in by a plea bargain and federal sentencing guidelines (which he denounced), could give Myers only five years, and that will be in a new minimum-security prison.“ What happened to Norman Huff?  His savings were down to around $100,000 and he had to go back to work as a security guard.  Morgenson reports that “he earns $6.75 an hour, well below the more than $20 an hour he was making when he took a buyout from East Ohio Gas.”  He filed an arbitration case against Mr. Dobbins (his broker) and Prudential (the firm Dobbins worked for). An arbitration panel from NASD, the National Association of Securities Dealers, “found both defendants liable for failure to supervise, breach of fiduciary duty and fraud.  The panel awarded the Huff’s what they had lost---approximately $225,000 – plus lawyer’s fees of $74,000.”
These are sad stories about people rushing headlong into becoming investors with little understanding of the risks involved.  What can we learn from these stories?  David Barr, Senior V.P. of Investments and Branch Manager of Advest, Inc. of Ithaca N.Y., states, "The prudent investment of a lifetime of savings is a project that demands both full attention and thorough investigation."  "Be wary of someone who tells you only about the good things that can happen if you go along with any recommended investment.  Since all investments encompass some form or risk, your financial consultant should carefully describe the risks associated with any recommendation."  Helen Saunders, Investment Executive with First Albany Corporation in Ithaca adds, "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is." How can you avoid a bad investment?  Saunders says, “"Is this investment realistic?  Am I being too greedy?"  "People should invest through professionals and companies they know have good reputations."  Barr adds, “Establish a relationship with a reputable firm that has been in business for a number of years.  Choose, by interview or reputation, a representative from that firm with whom you feel comfortable and have confidence in."  Check into the backgrounds of the broker and brokerage firm.  Know and understand how you will pay for their services---commission, hourly fee, flat fee or a combination---initially and in the future.  Your broker or advisor should detail the compensation and services to be rendered in a contract or letter of agreement for your signature.  And, by all means, ask questions and be sure you are comfortable with the arrangements and feel secure that what you are doing will be beneficial to you.  Don’t sign any documents without reading and understanding them completely.  Never sign blank documents and don’t allow someone to hurry you through the process.  Make sure you receive regular statements directly from the firm or company you are working with. If you don’t, call the firm and ask for them. Don’t rely solely on documents provided by your broker or advisor.  Put information in writing and keep notes.  A good deal of the time you deal with brokers is often done via the telephone but the phone is not a written format.  Keeping notes can refresh your memory and be a valuable tool that can help you.  Last but not least----Don’t be afraid to ask questions.  Fred Perry, a victim of the phony scheme in Binghamton N.Y. states, "This is the sort of thing you see in the paper and on TV and then say to yourself, `How could these people have been so careless about investing their future?'  Now I know." Ever watch Maria, Ron, Sue on CNBC or the guys on CNN---Lou, Kathleen, and Rhonda?  I love to watch that ticker.  Unlike a lot of investors, I don’t instantly react to it.  I just watch it and continue eating my nachos.  I’m not into greed and fear.  What do they and their guests have to say?   A good number of experts recommend that you take advantage of the "wealth generating" (read "make money") power of stocks to build your retirement nest egg.  Even though they have greater risks (read "you can lose money”) and price fluctuation (read “they go up, they go down”), over time, they will outperform other types of investments and they also compensate for inflation.  They offer the best potential for long-term growth.  Historically they have outperformed every other type of investment and outpaced inflation.  For the past 70 years, stocks have generated an average return of about 11 percent, more than 5 percent better than bonds.  Treasury bills returned almost 5 percent.  Inflation averaged between 3 and 4 percent.    There is no guarantee that history will repeat itself.  You can expect to encounter some bumps (2000 – 2002) along the road---my 401(k) started to look like a 201(k).  And there have been longer bumps.  Since 1901, there have been three 20 year periods when the inflation adjusted annual returns were in the negative territory.  But even though we have gone through periods of dramatic decline with bear markets, wars, recessions, layoffs, Wall Street scandals and shortages of acorns,  the market has responded in an upward path. The key to building your nest egg is to put together a mix of asset classes---stocks, bonds, and cash type savings-investments---that will balance the risk you would like/have to take and the realistic performance of your investments over the long term. Unfortunately, a good number of us investors have unrealistic expectations.  We became accustomed to the fantastic returns from the 1975 – 1999 bull market when stocks returned 17.2 percent.  However, the success that many of us enjoyed with our investments during the 1990s bull market was more a function of luck rather than skill.  Who knows when we will see those kinds of returns again?  My Mom (Josephine) keeps on repeating this message (in-person, phone, fax, e-mail, squirrel express):  “The good times don’t -5- Planning - Saving - Investing For Retirement Sandy Says:  Make Stocks  or Stock Funds  Your #1 Investment
- 6 - last forever but neither do the bear markets.”  Mom can really turn a phrase.  My good friend Warren Buffett, the world’s greatest stock market investor---you know, he’s the head honcho at Berkshire Hathaway---told me at one of their annual meetings in Omaha, “I’ve never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year or two.  But I think it’s very easy to see what’s going to happen over the long term.” You know, I’d love to buy his stock but it’s a little pricey.  The last time I checked it was selling for about $93,000 a share.  Do you think I could work out a trade with Warren for my “acorn futures?” “ October, this is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in.  The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” Mark Twain,  Created by Samuel Clemens, “Puddinhead Wilson”,  1835 – 1910 “ It's easy to compare this very simple four-fund strategy with the total stock market fund. To do so, I looked back to the start of 1999 for a five-calendar-year period that includes a raging bull market, then three years of the worst bear market in most people's memory and finally a strong recovery last year. The table below shows year-by year comparisons of the returns of the total stock market fund with the four-index-fund approach we recommend. These returns go back to 1999, the first full calendar year in which the Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund was operational.”  Comparing annual returns Total Stock Market Fund  Four – Fund Mix 1999  23.8%  15.1% 2000  -10.6%  4.1% 2001  -11%  -1.3% 2002  -21%  -7.2% 2003  31.4%  35.9% The Total Stock Market Fund outperformed this four-fund combination in only one of these years. A $20,000 investment in the Total Stock Market Fund at the start of 1999 would have grown to $20,450 by the end of 2003. The same investment in the four-fund combo, with annual rebalancing, would have grown to $29,829.  The combination that Merriman writes about is not fancy or expensive. It is built on four Vanguard index funds.  Can Albert Einstein Help You? Albert can help you because he has been credited with discovering the compound interest “Rule Of 72”.  He is quoted as saying, “It’s the greatest mathematical discovery of all time.” What is it?  The “Rule Of 72” is a quick calculating tool that allows you to easily calculate the length of time and rate of interest you will need to double your money.  The compound interest and financial success of the “Rule Of 72” is one of the most simple and important elements of building your retirement nest egg.  It is an easy formula to determine how long it will take to double your money---a rule of thumb that can help you to calculate when your money will double at a given interest rate ---at 10%, money will double every 7.2 years.  If you divide the rate of return of an investment into 72, you’ll discover approximately how many years it will take for your money to double. Sandy Cartoon Sandy to wife Camille : Uncle Elmer just told me that you can make a lot of money by becoming a day trader on the internet. Quick Takes: An Investment Strategy That Will Meet The Needs Of 99 Percent Of All Investors In a recent column that Paul Merriman, founder of Merriman Capital Management, an investment advisory and money management firm, writes for CBS MarketWatch.com, Paul tells us of a strategy that he has recommended for years.  For years, his firm has recommended that a U.S. equity portfolio be divided equally into four asset classes: large-cap, large-cap value, small-cap and small-cap value. Each of those is represented by a Vanguard index fund. (These include the  Index 500 (VFINX), Value Index (VIVAX, Small-Cap Index (NAESX) and Small-Cap Value Index  (VISVX).  Camille : We’ll, my friend Arthur Levitt, (former Chairman of the S.E.C.—Securities and Exchange Commission and former chairman of the American Stock Exchange) told me that it is just as easy to lose a lot more money on the internet through just a click of a button. Sandy:  Well, I guess Levitt has better credentials than Uncle Elmer.
- 7 - Annual Return  -  Years Until Your Money Doubles At  12% -  6 years At 10%  - 7.2 years  At  8%  -  9 years At 6%  -  12 years At 4%  -  18 years  Let’s look at a couple of examples. If you have $10,000 in a savings account at a bank, earning you 2.5%, divide 2.5% into 72 = 28.8 years to double your money.  Not great. If you have $10,000 invested in an investment that returns 12%, divide 12% into 72 = 6 years to double your money. A much better return! Those who understand money know that the fastest way to multiply what they have is through compounding. Most people gave little thought to a money market account that offered 5% interest at their bank, and the one that offered 6% at the bank next door. Over 40 years, $10,000 invested at 5% compounded annually is $70,400. That same amount, invested at 6% [which is only 1% higher], works out to be over $102,857. That 1% means an extra $32,457 at the end of 40 years.  Starting to see how interest compounded upon interest can make a big difference to your portfolio?  One advantage of the rule of 72 is that it provides an easy way to gauge the value of boosting a portfolio's return an extra 1 or 2 percent each year. A portfolio that earns 9 percent a year doubles in eight years. A portfolio that increases an average of 10 percent per year doubles in a little over seven years. The rule of 72 also makes it easy to put the stock market's long-term performance in perspective. The stock market's average annual return since 1926 is about 11 percent---not the 15 percent, 20 percent, or 30 percent annual returns posted in the 1990s.  Dividing 72 by 11 means that money in the stock market since 1926 has, on average, doubled every 6.6 years. So, go ahead and let Albert Einstein help to determine how to build your retirement nest egg  with your own “Rule Of 72.”  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Stock Market – Investing Humor  Q.  Why is investment advice so cheap and accessible? A.  Because the supply of it ---newspapers, magazines, internet, e-mail, radio, TV, brokers, advisors, co-workers, neighbors, newsletters, etc.---always exceeds the demand.  Coming In The July Issue:  Should You Be Concerned About Inflation? Inflation is dead isn’t it?  The Consumer Price Index, the most commonly used index to track inflation, has been running below 4% for the past 5 years.  So, why worry?  Well, let’s just take a “for instance.”  Let say that you--- I wouldn’t---put $1,000 in an envelope and put it under your bedroom mattress.  Let’s also say that you didn’t touch it for 20 years---I know that’s hard to imagine.  What would that $1,000 be worth?  It would have shrunk to today’s equivalent of $456.  That is why you must plan your retirement so that you can compensate for and deal with the impact of inflation on your retirement lifestyle.  In our July issue of  “Your Retirement,” we’ll give you some suggestions.  Retirement Planning Consultants   provides a number of resources designed to help individuals make informed decisions on planning – saving – investing for retirement.  We offer unbiased and easy-to-understand information from an impartial outside source.  We’ve been doing that for almost 30 years.  Our “Planning – Saving – Investing For Retirement” workshops have helped thousands of individuals.  For additional information or if you have any questions, contact, Robert R. Julian, Retirement Planning Consultants, 313 Blackstone Avenue, Ithaca, New York 14850, (607) 255-4405, email: rrj1cornell.edu.  Visit our website at retirementplanningconsultants.com This newsletter intends to present factual up-to-date, researched information on the topics presented.  We cannot make any representation regarding the accuracy of the content or its applicability to your situation.  Before any action is taken based upon this information, it is essential that you obtain competent, individual advice from an attorney, accountant, tax adviser or other professional adviser. Information throughout this newsletter, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statements regarding market or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information .  No party assumes liability for any loss or damage resulting from errors or omissions based on or use of this material.   -8- ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Your+Retirement +June+2004

  • 1.
  • 2. your co-workers. Although you don’t have a specific right to demand changes in your organization’s plan, you can influence some change. Don’t be shy. Employers do listen. They know that an effective, efficient plan is a plus for the organization in attracting and keeping talented employees. Ted Benna, President of the 401(k) Association and originator of the 401(k) plan, says, “Get involved. It’s your plan. Ask for what you want.” The typical input from employees on their plans usually deal with the variety and investment choices you have and the rules that govern the plan. Most experts feel that it is usually easier to change the investment options than it is to change plan rules. What steps can you take if you are unhappy? 1. What are you unhappy with? The choices of investments--- index funds, large cap, small cap, value, international stocks) --- matching contributions from your employer (not enough, too much company stock)--- education – advice for employees on investing--- fees and expenses are too high- -- funds with lower turnover of stocks --- better communication --- (not enough information or not often enough)--- loan-hardship - provisions . If you don’t speak up, they may not be aware of your and perhaps your co-workers problems. 2. Who Is In Charge? Work within the system. The big decisions (plan rules, scope of investments, etc) are made at a higher level but the benefit director can usually help you with what you want. The benefits director-administrator may not necessarily be the enemy. Sometimes, just a simple explanation of your problem may be enough to get the problem resolved or to get the wheels moving in the right direction. 3. Get Some Help. You may not be the only person in your organization that is unhappy. Talk to your co-workers (perhaps form an employee group) and other individuals who work at other organizations. This will give you the chance to find allies in your organization and perhaps find out how other organizations are handling similar problems. Also help yourself by doing some research. If you and your group feel that the funds in your plan are not matching up with specific benchmarks for appropriate investments, find the information you need and present it to your benefits director-employer. In your research, you may find that your organization’s competitor does better in matching contributions. That’s powerful information. Being informed allows you to be well prepared and persuasive. -2- 4. Be Persistent---But Patient. You don’t want to be a pest but if you feel that your requests are not being responded to or they won’t budge, present your case once again to your benefits director. If, after doing this, you still are not satisfied, you may have to take your request to the top executive in charge of benefits or the company president. But patience is also required. Hey, you’re not the only person who is busy, busy at work. A Question To Ask Yourself: Did You - Do You – Will You Buy On A Hot Tip? A couple of years ago, I was out of town visiting family in Boston on the first day of November.  It was afternoon and I was watching one of those “Financial – Wall Street” programs.  The program host was gushing about “one of today’s hot IPOs” (initial public offering)---“Akamai Technologies Inc.” One of his guest experts, in response to a question said, “The opening price on Akamai this morning was $70 and right now it is sitting on $150. This baby is taking off.  It looks like a winner.”  The program host asked him what the company did.  He said that it was “a part of the internet infrastructure.”  He never said what Akamai did, what products they made, what the market was, the competition, financial position, competitors, etc. Would you buy on the basis, of this “hot tip?”  I was tempted---“maybe I should get in and get a piece of the action.”  Apparently a lot of people were having the same thoughts.  The next day the price was up to $200 a share.  And, it kept going up, and up and up.  But, even though I had some misgivings about not getting on the bandwagon, I stayed on the sidelines. I was obeying one of my main rules about investing---if you want to make money with your investments, you must override your emotions. Money Magazine (1/1999) states that Sir John Templeton (1935 -) is “arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century.” Templeton states, “To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward.” In the middle of January, 2000, Akamai hit $340 a share.  I was tempted to kick myself in the “you know where.”  “If I got in at $159, I would have doubled my investment.”  But suddenly it started to fall and fall and fall.  By April, 2001, it sold for $8 a share. In 2002, it was priced under $1 a share. In May 2004, it was selling at $12.70 a share. Why did Akamai fall so hard?  A lot of reasons.
  • 3. As soon as the price was high enough, the profit takers (the venture capital firms, officers of the company cashing out on their options, Wall Street pros,  some who had “insider information, some were “hyping” the stock in an attempt to move the price higher, individual investors) were taking profits).  Once the selling started, it didn’t stop.  I felt sorry for the average investors who bought on emotion---“I’ve got to get a piece of this action.”  It isn’t much fun to buy in at $200, $250, $300, $340 a share and then watch your investment drop and drop and drop while you are still holding on and waiting for a rebound.  What am I trying to say here?   Obey the main rules when investing your money.  Do your research. We work hard for the money we earn.  We should work just as hard on our research into an investment before we give them our money.  Do you – Did You – Will You Buy On A Hot Tip? Hot tips often turn cold. Stone cold. A Retirement Diary: My Friend Margaret - She’s Alone Now Even though many people plan on going into retirement with a spouse or friend, some will become widows or widowers. If you're a woman, it's likely you will outlive your husband. That's what happened to my friend Margaret. Margaret is 68 years old. She taught in the local school district for 35 years. When Margaret was 64, her husband of 42 years suddenly passed away. That was a shock: "I just expected to go on as I was doing... living with my husband and doing the things we did together with the exception that I wouldn't be going to work every day. It just didn't work out that way.” Margaret answered several of my questions. Q. What was the most important thing you had to consider in planning for your retirement? A. I had to do a lot of thinking in the year before I retired what I was going to do all by myself. I didn't and I guess not too many people do think that their spouse might not be with them in retirement. I certainly didn't plan for that, and that sure had an impact on my plans. Q. What's your biggest problem in retirement? A. I guess my biggest problem is not having a husband and having to live all by myself. There is still a considerable amount of grief to contend with, and there are other problems---a single woman can't go out as freely as a person with an escort. There are emotional problems as well. Q. If you had to do it all over again, would you do anything differently? A. Probably save more money---that would be a help. I'd probably learn how to repair a faucet, fix an electric plug and some wiring. I'd probably not get nervous over the furnace then because I'd know what was expected of it. I think every woman should have a course in home mechanics. That's one of my problems. My husband took care of everything in the house. Generally I'm pretty well set. One of my students in school said, What are you quitting for? You're doing good. I told him, I think I've worked long enough and hard enough. Now I'm going to play for the rest of my life. Q. What advice can you give to someone thinking about retirement? A. I think you have to be sure of yourself. You have to know what you want out of retirement. I read a book recently about a widow whose problem when she was left alone was not material things but the fact that she had an identity crisis. Her husband and her family had been so much apart of her everyday life that she had a crisis when she was in a different situation of being alone without a husband. It's tough to think about that before it happens, but perhaps you should. Q. Tell us about the problems of being alone. A. The problem is the problem. The problem is being alone. In the case of the wife, the separation from the lover, the friend, the partner, is traumatic. It's something that in four years, I can't get over it. There is that central problem of grief. Even though I have a very happy nature and enjoy doing things very much, the problem of being alone goes right along with you all the time. I'm trying to work on that and maybe it will improve in the future . A single person in retirement has very special problems. Couples are invited out to dinner more often than single people. I don't drive and when something comes up, transportation is a concern. Going out alone in the evening on the streets is a concern but I must say that's more of a concern for my children than me. I can't get over the feeling that I -3- 1. What is the company’s business?   What products services do they offer? Are they selling products – services? 2. What is the state of their finances?   Do they have a lot of cash? Do they have a lot of debt? Are they earning money?  If not, when will they? 3. Is it in a strong competitive position?   How does it compare to others in its industry? 4. Is the price right?   Is it worth $. $. $? 5. If you can’t explain it to someone so that they can understand it and perhaps convince them, perhaps you shouldn’t invest in it .
  • 4. -4- grew up with, that I can go anyplace and do as I please, but I guess now I'm becoming a bit more cautious. Q. How do you cope? A . Just by living. I go on as much as I always did doing the things that I enjoy doing. I can't say that I have to run every minute and keep busy to cope. I can be quiet. In fact, I like to be alone quite a bit of the time. I go out with my friends to concerts and plays. It's not a matter of doing things although a lot of people suggest that. It's more a matter of having a happy nature and being able to accept a situation as you have it. My biggest adjustment wasn't to retirement but to the loss of my husband, and that occurred only a year before I retired. He was a heart patient at the time, and I had thought about retiring earlier because of that, but I didn't. Maybe I should have. Q. What advice can you give to the single person in retirement? A. Probably the old advice to know thyself. What you want to do and where you're at and where you're going. I never had an identity problem but I understand a lot of people do. You have to know what your situation is, understand it, and then do what you have to do to get to where you want to be. Does that make sense? Thank you Margaret. Have you discussed with your spouse...your friend the possibility and implications of living alone in retirement? What does your spouse or friend know about your pension plan, your Social Security, your insurance coverage, your assets and debts, your important papers? Is there someone your partner can go to for financial advice? Q. What can you learn from Margaret's story? A Continuing Problem: Avoiding Bad Investments As I was reading Gretchen Morgenson’s column in the Business Section of the New York Times a few weeks ago (4/18/2004), I thought about a newspaper column I wrote a couple of years ago. The column dealt with a couple of individuals in the Binghamton, New York area who lost money because of a “swindler.” Gretchen’s column dealt with Norman Huff of Dalton, Ohio who lost $225,000 from his retirement account of $386,000 because of some bad investments by Michael G. Dobbins, a broker. In the Binghamton, N.Y. area, Mary Nider lost the money she had "counted on toward nursing home care if need be. My heart turns to a lump each time I think of this ill-fated decision to invest." The money was from selling stock she inherited from her husband who died. She asks, "What more can I count on? Welfare?" William Urdanick and his wife lost $225,532 ---"three generations of hard work, scrimping and saving. The loss was all the money we had. One moment you have a financially stable life and the next moment your whole life changes." Sue Proper lost income from the sale of her modest house. "Instead of being secure, I am in a lot of debt. My life has been a living hell since this happened." Seventy-six year Florence Borucki states, "I get a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach every time I think of it. He stole very hard-earned dollars from me. I did without things to save that money and now it's gone." Mary, William and his wife, Sue and Florence are just five of some 135 Binghamton, N.Y. area residents, who are cited by Gannett New Service reporter William Ringle, as "victims of swindler Paul Meyers, who stole $40 to $50 million." "In the Binghamton area, Meyers' phony real estate investment schemes mainly wiped out the life savings of old people who were counting on the money to eke out Social Security or meager pensions." These individuals, like a number of other planning for retirement investors, "were attracted by the 14 percent interest that Meyers offered." "Any early doubts they may have harbored were allayed when they began getting the hefty interest payments that were based on the Ponzi scheme. Money from later investments is used to pay high "interest" on earlier ones. Eventually, the money runs out." What happened to "swindler Myers?" U.S. District Judge Harold H. Greene, "hemmed in by a plea bargain and federal sentencing guidelines (which he denounced), could give Myers only five years, and that will be in a new minimum-security prison.“ What happened to Norman Huff? His savings were down to around $100,000 and he had to go back to work as a security guard. Morgenson reports that “he earns $6.75 an hour, well below the more than $20 an hour he was making when he took a buyout from East Ohio Gas.” He filed an arbitration case against Mr. Dobbins (his broker) and Prudential (the firm Dobbins worked for). An arbitration panel from NASD, the National Association of Securities Dealers, “found both defendants liable for failure to supervise, breach of fiduciary duty and fraud. The panel awarded the Huff’s what they had lost---approximately $225,000 – plus lawyer’s fees of $74,000.”
  • 5. These are sad stories about people rushing headlong into becoming investors with little understanding of the risks involved. What can we learn from these stories? David Barr, Senior V.P. of Investments and Branch Manager of Advest, Inc. of Ithaca N.Y., states, "The prudent investment of a lifetime of savings is a project that demands both full attention and thorough investigation." "Be wary of someone who tells you only about the good things that can happen if you go along with any recommended investment. Since all investments encompass some form or risk, your financial consultant should carefully describe the risks associated with any recommendation." Helen Saunders, Investment Executive with First Albany Corporation in Ithaca adds, "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is." How can you avoid a bad investment? Saunders says, “"Is this investment realistic? Am I being too greedy?" "People should invest through professionals and companies they know have good reputations." Barr adds, “Establish a relationship with a reputable firm that has been in business for a number of years. Choose, by interview or reputation, a representative from that firm with whom you feel comfortable and have confidence in." Check into the backgrounds of the broker and brokerage firm. Know and understand how you will pay for their services---commission, hourly fee, flat fee or a combination---initially and in the future. Your broker or advisor should detail the compensation and services to be rendered in a contract or letter of agreement for your signature. And, by all means, ask questions and be sure you are comfortable with the arrangements and feel secure that what you are doing will be beneficial to you. Don’t sign any documents without reading and understanding them completely. Never sign blank documents and don’t allow someone to hurry you through the process. Make sure you receive regular statements directly from the firm or company you are working with. If you don’t, call the firm and ask for them. Don’t rely solely on documents provided by your broker or advisor. Put information in writing and keep notes. A good deal of the time you deal with brokers is often done via the telephone but the phone is not a written format. Keeping notes can refresh your memory and be a valuable tool that can help you. Last but not least----Don’t be afraid to ask questions. Fred Perry, a victim of the phony scheme in Binghamton N.Y. states, "This is the sort of thing you see in the paper and on TV and then say to yourself, `How could these people have been so careless about investing their future?' Now I know." Ever watch Maria, Ron, Sue on CNBC or the guys on CNN---Lou, Kathleen, and Rhonda? I love to watch that ticker. Unlike a lot of investors, I don’t instantly react to it. I just watch it and continue eating my nachos. I’m not into greed and fear. What do they and their guests have to say?   A good number of experts recommend that you take advantage of the "wealth generating" (read "make money") power of stocks to build your retirement nest egg.  Even though they have greater risks (read "you can lose money”) and price fluctuation (read “they go up, they go down”), over time, they will outperform other types of investments and they also compensate for inflation. They offer the best potential for long-term growth.  Historically they have outperformed every other type of investment and outpaced inflation. For the past 70 years, stocks have generated an average return of about 11 percent, more than 5 percent better than bonds.  Treasury bills returned almost 5 percent.  Inflation averaged between 3 and 4 percent.   There is no guarantee that history will repeat itself. You can expect to encounter some bumps (2000 – 2002) along the road---my 401(k) started to look like a 201(k). And there have been longer bumps. Since 1901, there have been three 20 year periods when the inflation adjusted annual returns were in the negative territory. But even though we have gone through periods of dramatic decline with bear markets, wars, recessions, layoffs, Wall Street scandals and shortages of acorns, the market has responded in an upward path. The key to building your nest egg is to put together a mix of asset classes---stocks, bonds, and cash type savings-investments---that will balance the risk you would like/have to take and the realistic performance of your investments over the long term. Unfortunately, a good number of us investors have unrealistic expectations. We became accustomed to the fantastic returns from the 1975 – 1999 bull market when stocks returned 17.2 percent. However, the success that many of us enjoyed with our investments during the 1990s bull market was more a function of luck rather than skill. Who knows when we will see those kinds of returns again? My Mom (Josephine) keeps on repeating this message (in-person, phone, fax, e-mail, squirrel express): “The good times don’t -5- Planning - Saving - Investing For Retirement Sandy Says: Make Stocks or Stock Funds Your #1 Investment
  • 6. - 6 - last forever but neither do the bear markets.” Mom can really turn a phrase. My good friend Warren Buffett, the world’s greatest stock market investor---you know, he’s the head honcho at Berkshire Hathaway---told me at one of their annual meetings in Omaha, “I’ve never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year or two. But I think it’s very easy to see what’s going to happen over the long term.” You know, I’d love to buy his stock but it’s a little pricey. The last time I checked it was selling for about $93,000 a share. Do you think I could work out a trade with Warren for my “acorn futures?” “ October, this is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” Mark Twain, Created by Samuel Clemens, “Puddinhead Wilson”, 1835 – 1910 “ It's easy to compare this very simple four-fund strategy with the total stock market fund. To do so, I looked back to the start of 1999 for a five-calendar-year period that includes a raging bull market, then three years of the worst bear market in most people's memory and finally a strong recovery last year. The table below shows year-by year comparisons of the returns of the total stock market fund with the four-index-fund approach we recommend. These returns go back to 1999, the first full calendar year in which the Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund was operational.” Comparing annual returns Total Stock Market Fund Four – Fund Mix 1999 23.8% 15.1% 2000 -10.6% 4.1% 2001 -11% -1.3% 2002 -21% -7.2% 2003 31.4% 35.9% The Total Stock Market Fund outperformed this four-fund combination in only one of these years. A $20,000 investment in the Total Stock Market Fund at the start of 1999 would have grown to $20,450 by the end of 2003. The same investment in the four-fund combo, with annual rebalancing, would have grown to $29,829. The combination that Merriman writes about is not fancy or expensive. It is built on four Vanguard index funds. Can Albert Einstein Help You? Albert can help you because he has been credited with discovering the compound interest “Rule Of 72”. He is quoted as saying, “It’s the greatest mathematical discovery of all time.” What is it? The “Rule Of 72” is a quick calculating tool that allows you to easily calculate the length of time and rate of interest you will need to double your money. The compound interest and financial success of the “Rule Of 72” is one of the most simple and important elements of building your retirement nest egg. It is an easy formula to determine how long it will take to double your money---a rule of thumb that can help you to calculate when your money will double at a given interest rate ---at 10%, money will double every 7.2 years. If you divide the rate of return of an investment into 72, you’ll discover approximately how many years it will take for your money to double. Sandy Cartoon Sandy to wife Camille : Uncle Elmer just told me that you can make a lot of money by becoming a day trader on the internet. Quick Takes: An Investment Strategy That Will Meet The Needs Of 99 Percent Of All Investors In a recent column that Paul Merriman, founder of Merriman Capital Management, an investment advisory and money management firm, writes for CBS MarketWatch.com, Paul tells us of a strategy that he has recommended for years. For years, his firm has recommended that a U.S. equity portfolio be divided equally into four asset classes: large-cap, large-cap value, small-cap and small-cap value. Each of those is represented by a Vanguard index fund. (These include the Index 500 (VFINX), Value Index (VIVAX, Small-Cap Index (NAESX) and Small-Cap Value Index (VISVX). Camille : We’ll, my friend Arthur Levitt, (former Chairman of the S.E.C.—Securities and Exchange Commission and former chairman of the American Stock Exchange) told me that it is just as easy to lose a lot more money on the internet through just a click of a button. Sandy: Well, I guess Levitt has better credentials than Uncle Elmer.
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