Presentation fan ifpri us africa forum june 11 2012

Click to edit Master title style

Meeting the Food and Nutrition Demands
of an Urbanizing Africa

Shenggen Fan
Director General | International Food Policy Research Institute

Partnership to Cut Hunger and Poverty in Africa
US-Africa Forum
Washington, DC | June 11, 2012
Shenggen Fan, June 2012

Key messages

 Increasing incomes, population, and
urbanization are stark realities that face Africa

 Demand for more and better food, esp. in
urban areas will continue to rise

 Future demand could be met by imports, but
financing rising import bills is a challenge

 Smallholder farming can be transformed to
meet the growing food and nutrition demands

Rising incomes

GDP, constant prices (%) GDP per capita ($US)

Emerging & Developing economies
10 2,000 Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
8
1,500
6

US$
4 1,000

2
500

0

0
-2

Source: IMF 2012 Source: UN 2012


Growingedit Master title style
Click to population and urbanization

Africa’s total, rural, and urban population

2.5
Rural
Larger and more
2.0 Urban
urban population
Total
1.5
Billions

1.0

Demand for more
0.5
and better food
0.0

Source: UN Population Division 2011

Structural change not contributing to
overall growth in Africa

Decomposition of productivity growth, 1990-2005

LAC Productivity growth
within sectors

AFRICA

within

ASIA structural

Productivity growth due
HI to structural change

-0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

McMillian 2012

Varying per capita food production and
consumption
Per capita production Per capita consumption
Average Annual growth, 2000-2010 Average Annual growth, 2000-2007

Cereals Cereals

Roots & Tubers Starchy Roots

Pulses Pulses

Vegetables Vegetables

Fruits Fruits

Meat Meat

Fish Fish

Eggs Eggs

Milk Milk

-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
Percent Percent
Source: FAO 2012 Source: FAO 2010

BUT
Persistent hunger and undernutrition

2011 Global Hunger Index Micronutrient Deficiencies
GHI components: Deficiencies (prevalence) in:
• Proportion of undernourished • Iron
• Prevalence of underweight in children • Vitamin A
• Under-five mortality rate • Zinc

Source: von Grebmer 2011
Shenggen Fan, June 2012 Source: HarvestPlus 2012

Small to edit offer opportunities
Click farms Master title style
Can:
 use land more efficiently
% of all farms
Farm size (ha) Africa  produce cheaper and
<2 80 more nutritious foods

2-10 15  increase own incomes
10-100 3 and productivity

>100 0  promote equity, hunger,
Source: Calculations based on most recent data available from FAO
Agricultural World Census from late 1980s-2000s and poverty reduction

AND average farm size will continue to decline due to
sustained rural population growth

Productivity can be increased
Cereal yields, Africa Current & potential crop yields,
Central and West Africa
30 30
Maize
Current
Rice, Paddy
25 25 Potential
Sorghum
20
Hg/ha (billions)

20
15
15
10
10
5

5 0

Source: FAO 2012 Source: Nin-Pratt 2011

Higher productivity of small farms = higher agricultural and
economic growth


What needs to be done?


Click to editsmallholder farming
Transform Master title style

 Invest in smallholder-friendly agricultural R&D
and infrastructure

 Innovate in financial services, risk-management
mechanisms, and institutional arrangements

 Leverage smallholder production for nutrition
and health outcomes


Increase smallholder productivity

Improve access to new technologies, high-quality
seeds, fertilizer, and rural infrastructure

More affordable fertilizer → increased usage → higher crop yields
Lower urea port price, transport
Baseline & border crossing costs Maize yield response

Shenggen Fan, June 2012 Source: Guo et al. 2009

Promoteedit Master title style
Click to innovations for smallholders

 Finance - Kloeppinger-Todd and Sharma 2010
• Modern communication technology e.g. cell phone-based
payment services
• Financial and non-financial service bundles e.g. livestock
health monitoring and credit

 Insurance - Vargas Hill and Torero 2009
• Weather index-based insurance
• Microfinance and microinsurance bundles

 Institutions - Asenso-Okyere et al. 2008
• Producer cooperatives; contract farming
• Social and rural knowledge networks

Leverage smallholder farming
for nutrition and health

 Growing demand for high-value, processed, pre-prepared
and fortified foods
 Greater attention to food quality and food safety

• Develop more nutritious staple food crop varieties
(biofortification)

• Improve postharvest handling

• Enhance food safety and quality assurance along the
value chain
• e.g. low-cost technology and technical capacity for tackling
nutrition and health risks
Source: Lopriore and Muehlhoff 2003; Hawkes and Ruel 2011; Trench et al. 2011

Lessonsedit Master title style
Click to from Asia

DOs DON’Ts
 Labor intensive urban jobs  Weak land rights
 Improved education and  Food safety challenges
infrastructure for rural migrants
 Weak link between
 Strengthened agricultural labor agriculture and
productivity through R&D nutrition/health
investment
 Unsustainable
 Robust rural-urban food supply intensification
chains
 Inefficient input subsidies
 Vibrant rural nonfarm sector
 Large regional inequality
 Strong local communities and rural/urban gaps

Presentation fan ifpri us africa forum june 11 2012

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