Facts and figures on resource use in Asia and the Pacific together with scenarios on resurce use for the next 35 years.

1. ASIA 2050:
SCENARIOS, CHALLENGES
AND OPPORTUNITIES
1
Dr. Stefanos Fotiou, UNEP

2. Disclaimer
2
 The quantitative data, models and scenarios in
this presentation are coming form the UNEP
publication:
Resource Efficiency: Economics and Outlook
for Asia and the Pacific
http://www.unep.org/publications/contents/pub_detai
ls_search.asp?ID=6217
The content and views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do
not necessarily reflect the views or policies, or carry the endorsement of the
contributory organisations or the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

3. Energy Use Globally and in
Asia3
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Petajoules
Asia Pacific
Rest of World
World
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)

4. Sources of energy in Asia
4
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Petajoules
Petroleum
Nuclear
Non-Hydro Renewables
Natural Gas
Hydro
Coal

5. Energy per capita Globally and in
Asia5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Gigajoules/Capita
Asia Pacific
Rest of World
World

6. Energy use per $ (energy
intensity)6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Megajoules/$US
Asia Pacific
Rest of World
World

7. Resource Use Globally and in
Asia7
Domestic materials consumption for the Asia-Pacific region, Rest of the World,
and World, for the years 1970 – 2008
A significant share
of the region’s
resource
consumption is
related with export
to countries
outside of the
region
However, most of
the resources are
used for end-
consumption in the
region

8. What Asia is consuming?
8
A doubling of the use of biomass – a six time increase in the
use of non-renewable resources

9. Resource Use per capita
9
Domestic materials consumption per capita for the Asia-Pacific region, Rest of
the World, and World, for the years 1970 – 2008
Asia Pacific was
consuming just one third
of the Rest of the World
Asia Pacific is
now
consuming as
much as the
Rest of the
World

10. Resource Use per $
10
Material Intensity for the Asia-Pacific, Rest of World and World, for the years 1971 –
2005.
(Materials are Total Domestic Material Consumption, dollars are constant year 2000 $US, exchange rate based)
Each dollar of
GDP requires
increasing
amounts of natural
resources.

11. Implications
11
At the beginning of the 21st century, the Asia-Pacific
region has overtaken the rest of the world to become
the single largest user of natural resources.
Material efficiency in Asia and the Pacific was
stagnant until 1990 and since then the region has
lost efficiency
Energy use in Asia and the Pacific has rapidly
grown since 1970 from 25% to over 35% of
global demand
High (current and future) environmental cost

12. Implications
12
Overall GHG emissions increased from
1990-2005 from 10 billion to 16 billion
tonnes
Water supplies likely to be increasingly under
pressure as demand and populations increase
Changing land use systems: although efficiency
is generally improving the urbanization trend is
still in its infancy

13. Dual objective
13
Global sustainability depends on the
creation and implementation of effective
policies to support the dynamic Asia-Pacific
region to transition to a new sustainable
industrial system
Dual objectives of increasing the material standard of living of people and
reducing poverty, whilst ensuring the integrity of resources and the
environment
The ability of countries in Asia and the
Pacific to prosper and to remain
competitive will depend on public
policies that guide and enable
resource efficiency and systems
innovation

14. Some scenarios
14
Business as usual, Resource Efficiency, System
Innovation

15. Business as Usual
15

16. Resource Efficiency
16

17. System Innovation
17

18. What might happen (materials)?
18

19. What might happen (materials)?
19

20. What might happen (energy)?
20

21. What might happen (energy)?
21

22. What we need
22
Strategies
And
Policies
Practices Investments
Focus on
resources
Change of BAU
Mainstreaming
Mobilising
Financial
Capital

23. How we reply: 1. Life-cycle
approach23

24. How we reply: 2. Policy tools
24

25. How we reply: 3. System’s
Innovation approach25
Changes to consumption and
lifestyle habits, urban form,
transportation modes, energy
production, and economic
structure
Technological improvements
that permit efficiency gains to
be achieved without
impinging on nutritional
budgets or quality of life in
developing countries
Massive investments in
infrastructure, skills and
institutions and governance
capacity supporting
sustainable development
Strengthening existing fiscal
and financial instruments for
creating incentives for
resource efficiency
interventions
Focus areas

26. @stefanosfotiou
Thank you!26