14. Claim 2: evidence Early identification of at-risk children is not a water-tight process
15.
16. How soon can we tell? cont. Behavioural problems reported in CHS/SW files by age 5 n=105 (%) Institutional pathways Referral to Reporter at age 13 37 Referral to Reporter at age 15 45 Conviction in adult system by age 22 46
17.
18. Claim 3: evidence Critical moments in the early teenage years are key to pathways out of offending
34. Within group % change in serious offending from age 15 to age 16 INTERVENTION GROUP COMPARISON GROUP Stage 1 Charge -50 (.000) -43 (.001) Stage 2 Reporter contact -39 (.001) -42 (.000) Stage 3 Supervision -31 (NS) -49 (.001)
35.
36.
37. The revolving door Residential care by 16 th birthday % criminal conviction by age 22 77 Residential care by 16 th birthday % imprisonment by age 22 31 Period of imprisonment by age 18 % further criminal conviction by age 22 80 Period of imprisonment by age 18 % further period of imprisonment by age 22 70 Convicted by 18 but not imprisoned % further criminal conviction by age 22 43
42. References: McAra and McVie, 2005, The Usual Suspects? Young People, Street Life and the Police, Criminology and Criminal Justice , 5 (1):1-36 McAra and McVie, 2007a, Youth Justice? The Impact of System Contact on Patterns of Desistance from Offending, European Journal of Criminology , 4 (3) McAra and McVie, 2007b, Criminal Justice Transitions, Research Digest, no. 14 McAra and McVie, 2010a, Youth Crime and Justice: Key messages from the Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime, Criminology and Criminal Justice, 10 (2): 179-209. McAra and McVie, 2010b (forthcoming), Criminal Justice Pathways: Key findings from the Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime, Research Digest , no. 15 www.law.ed.ac.uk/cls/esytc/
43.
44. Supervision requirements Nature of contact % of ‘cases’ brought to hearing (n=59) Regular child and family 63 Regular individual work with the child 25 Irregular contact 20 Specialist services Educational welfare/psychologist 56 Youth strategy group 49 Work on offending 36 Mental health services 10
45.
46. Longer term impact of school exclusion Outcomes Those excluded by S3 n=471 % Not excluded % Serious offender at age 17/18 (self-report) 47 24 Criminal conviction by age 22 50 12 Conviction for serious violence by age 22 22 2 Imprisonment by age 22 5 0.2