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Mega Trends Driving Change in Business Environments
Macro to Micro Implications of Global Mega Trends
What is a Mega Trend?
2
Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with
their far reaching impact on business, societies, economies, cultures and
personal lives.
Connectivity and
Convergence
Cognitive Era Bricks and Clicks Smart is the New
Green
New Societies
Health,
Wellness, and
Welllbeing
New Business
Models
Urbanisation Future of
Infrastructure
Innovating to
Zero
Future of Energy
New Markets
Beyond BRICSs
Future of
Mobility
3
News Headlines in 2030
Robots enter our personal
lives.
Sensory devices guide our
everyday lives.
Mobile financial transactions
are now in crypto-currencies.
We enter cognitive era
3D printing is commonplace.
4D printing is gaining
mainstream acceptance .
EU signs agreement to
introduce a high speed rail
service from London to
Beijing.
Autonomous cars on the road
Summer Sale: Low-cost
holidays in space.
Connectivity and
Convergence
4
10 Connected Devices for
Every Household by 2020
5 billion internet users by
2020
5 connected devices for every
user by 2020
500 devices with unique
digital IDs (Internet of things)
per square kilometre by 2020
80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020
5
6
GenerationDeviceSpecifications
1G 2G 3G 4G 5G
Less than 1
millisecond
Latency
90% Energy
savings
0 perceived down
time for service
provision
7 trillion M2M
wireless connections
5G Targets
5G Rollout in Europe: Road Map and Vision
European Commission has signed strategic deals with Asian market leaders in 5G technology, Japan and South
Korea and China to rollout 5G by 2020
Analog
Voice Calls
Speed: 50
KBPS
Digital Voice
Calls
Speed: 250
KBPS
Data
Bandwidth:
20 MBPS
Video
Streaming
Bandwidth:
200 MBPS
M2M
Bandwidth:
10 GBPS
559
225
107
102
220
365
129
73
71
327
R&D Reconnaissance Navigation Earth Observaion Communication
136
59
218
354
161 164
31
89
Heavy
5,400kg+
Large
4,200-
5,400 kg
Medium
2,500-4,200
kg
Small
500-
2,500 kg
Micro
100-
500 kg
Mini
10-100 kg
Pico
0.1-1 kg
Nano
1-10 kg
Sub-Trend: Space Jam
There will be 1,213 Satellites Launched, Cumulatively, Globally by 2021.
1,213
965
2011* 2021*
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
*Note: The numbers refer to accumulated number of satellites to be launched in
the period 2012 to 2021 cumulatively
Sub Trend: Augmented Reality
Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through
digital data through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases
user’s interactivity with the local environment . This extends business and mobility options,
social interactions and experiences which has implications on personal lives, businesses and even
day-to-day activities.
Reality Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Virtual World
8
Sub Trend: Augmented Reality Impacting Different Personal
Experiences
9
10
Case Study on Future of Education: ‘Flipped Classroom’ (Khan
Academy)
Lecture today;
Classwork Tomorrow
Lecture Online;
Classwork Today
Teacher – speaks in the
classroom
Teacher – helps in the
classroom
10
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Smart is the
New Green
11
Smart
Technology
Smart
Buildings
Smart Mobility
Smart
Windows
Smart CloudsLEVEL 3
Sensing
Mechanism +
Two-way Flow of
Data
Communication
Smart Chip Smart LightingLEVEL 2
Basic Sensing
Mechanism +
One-way Data
Communication
Smart
Bandages
LEVEL 1
Basic Sensing
Mechanism
Image Source: Dreamstime and Connected Digital World
Source: Frost & Sullivan
A smart product is
characterized by an intelligent
sensing technology that is
increasingly being integrated with
Internet technologies, thereby
allowing the product to react to and
communicate with the changing
environment around it. This leads
to optimal operations and
improvement in efficiency.
Smart is the New Green—3 Levels of Smart Products and
Technologies
12
13
14
Selected Smart Cities in 2025
Global Smart Cities
Over 26 Global Cities to be Truly SMART Cities in 2025 - More than 50% of Smart
cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America
Source: Forbes Smart City List, Innovation City Index, Specific Smart Project Websites for Each City, Frost & Sullivan
Toronto
San Francisco
Vancouver
Paris
Boston
New York
London Berlin
Barcelona
Amsterdam
Seattle
Tokyo
Singapore
Calgary
Chicago
Vienna
Helsinki
Oslo
Seoul
Beijing
Tianjin
Wuhan
Helsinki
Sydney
Shenzhen
Stockholm
Santander
(upcoming)
Smart Buildings—The Triple Zero Architecture of the
Future
Smart buildings are green, energy efficient, and intelligent, with advanced automated infrastructure that controls and
manages aspects, such as lighting, temperature & energy consumption, independently or with minimal human intervention.
Commercial
Residential
Building Automation Systems
Reduction in energy consumption up to 30%
Smart Meters
Lighting
HVAC Controls
Energy Management
Energy Efficiency
Image Source: Dreamstime
Source: Frost & Sullivan
HVAC—Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning
EMS—Energy management system
Electronic Article Surveillance
Systems
Contraband Detection Systems
CCTV
Automotive Security systems
Electronic Security Systems
15
Sub-Trend - Industry 4.0 Creates New Smarter Factories
4th industrial revolution will expand mobile robot applications in the smart factory from playing
mundane jobs like assembly to building sophisticated machinery in production floors
Illustrating the role of Cloud Robotics in Industry 4.0
Industry 4.0
• Internet of Things
• Cloud platforms
• Wireless intelligence
• Integrated Industries
• IP centralization
• Big Data
Industry 4.0 benefits
• Newer insights on factory operations
• Real time trajectory of business
• Insights on customers
• Sustainable manufacturing
Algorithmic
learning & data
enhancing
16
Future of
Mobility
17
17
DEMAND RESPONSIVE
TRANSPORT
(TAXI, BRT)
CONNECTED
LIVING (including
car)
INTERCITY
PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
CAR LEASING
CAR RENTAL
CAR SHARING &
POOLING
INTRACITY
PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
PHYD
INSURANCE
DYNAMIC
PARKING
CONCIERGE
SERVICES
ENERGY
MANAGEMENT
MICRO-MOBILITY
SOLUTIONS
TRAINS/FLIGHTS
INTEGRATION
APPS, JOURNEY
PLANNING, BIG
DATA
Mobility Configuration will Drive Energy Saving in Transportation
In Future Industry Stakeholders Will Showcase Mobility Integration
18
The Future of Mobility will be Smart
Micro-mobility
Integrated mobility
Global car sharing
Parking management Zero
emission
taxisNew business models
Connected/autonomous
transport
Telematics based insurance
Alternative fuels
Demand Response
Management
19
Demand Responsive Transport Solutions Remove
Inefficiency
“Fixed”
Carpooling
Instant – Short
Distance
Planned – Long
Distance
Higher Price per
KM
Lower Price per
KM
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
“On Demand”
Carpooling
“Taxi” ServicesPublic
Transport
“Transportation
Network
Companies”
20
21
Urban Transhipment
Areas
Urban Consolidation
Centres
Urban Intermodal
Hubs
Locker BoxesMicrodistribution
Mobile Depots / Freight
Buses
Sub Trend: Future of Consolidation and Last Mile Delivery
More Bundling, Intermodality and Microdistribution in Urban
Areas
Types of Urban Distribution
Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries
One Hour Deliveries Click ‘n’ Collect
Future of
Infrastructure
22
In Future, HS Rail will not only Connect Cities and
Countries but will also Connect Continents
• China : 25,000 kms by 2025 (7,431 kms in 2010)
• 2020 Trans Siberian Link: New Route 66
• Biggest Project: $68 billion California HSR
• UK project: £33 billion (by 2026)
What are the Opportunities?
• High Speed Logistics
• Copper-silver and copper-magnesium wires
• Steel Companies
• Construction tooling, spare parts
• Condition monitoring, security, surveillance,
• Data handling, Passenger information
systems
• Mergers and Acquisitions Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
23
Future of
Energy
24
Top 10 Technologies and Markets to Tackle Carbon
Reduction
Energy Efficiency and
SMART Buildings
LED Lighting
Revolution
Small Scale
Distributed Generation
SMART Grid & SMART
Energy
Advanced Batteries
and Energy Storage
SMART Water
Networks
Renewables
Energy
Harvesting
Energy Recovery from
Waste
Gas-fired Power &
Shale Gas Exploitation
25
Urbanisation
26
Mega Cities
Mega
Regions
Mega
Corridor 27
Smart and
Sustainable
Cities
Implication : Cities, and Not Countries,
Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future
New York City, with a GDP of $1.28
trillion, which is the equivalent of being
the 15th largest country in the world, close
in economic scale to South Korea ($1.12
trillion).
Cities like Istanbul in Turkey will account
for more than 22% of country’s GDP
What are the Micro Implications?
High Economic Power
Hub and Spoke Business Model
Pilot Project Approach
New Mobility Solutions
City as a Customer
28
Suppliers
Manufacturers
Retailers
Consumers
Landfill/Waste Management
Linear
Economy
Circular
Economy
Reuse/
Redistribute
Refurbish/
Remanufacture
Recycle
$700 billion
in consumer goods
material savings
$1.80 trillion
per annum savings
in avoiding waste in
textiles
$1.50 billion in
collecting
household food
waste annually in
the United
Kingdom
Savings in
reusing/refurbishing/
recycling
Source: ESA; Ellen MacArthur Foundation; Frost & Sullivan
New Avenues for Resources: Circular Economy
The circular economy will promote efficient use of resources, provide greener production, and
support resource optimization, with an opportunity in excess of $1 trillion for the global economy.
Circular economy refers to an industrial economy that, contrary to a traditional linear economy, reclaims used
materials and recycles them as secondary raw materials for new products.
29
Macro Micro
From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to
Strategy Implementation
Mega Trend
Selected trends that impacts key
business environments
Sub Trend
A sub-layer of trends that has a
wide ranging impact
Impact to Your Industry
Visualising the roadmap of these
critical forces through scenario-
building and macro economic
forecasts
Impact on Future Product/
Technology
Analysis of Opportunities and
Unmet Needs
To
30

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CEO sustainability club Luxembourg presentation Olivia Walker - Frost&Sullivan

  • 1. Mega Trends Driving Change in Business Environments Macro to Micro Implications of Global Mega Trends
  • 2. What is a Mega Trend? 2 Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies, economies, cultures and personal lives. Connectivity and Convergence Cognitive Era Bricks and Clicks Smart is the New Green New Societies Health, Wellness, and Welllbeing New Business Models Urbanisation Future of Infrastructure Innovating to Zero Future of Energy New Markets Beyond BRICSs Future of Mobility
  • 3. 3 News Headlines in 2030 Robots enter our personal lives. Sensory devices guide our everyday lives. Mobile financial transactions are now in crypto-currencies. We enter cognitive era 3D printing is commonplace. 4D printing is gaining mainstream acceptance . EU signs agreement to introduce a high speed rail service from London to Beijing. Autonomous cars on the road Summer Sale: Low-cost holidays in space.
  • 5. 10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020 5 billion internet users by 2020 5 connected devices for every user by 2020 500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020 80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020 5
  • 6. 6 GenerationDeviceSpecifications 1G 2G 3G 4G 5G Less than 1 millisecond Latency 90% Energy savings 0 perceived down time for service provision 7 trillion M2M wireless connections 5G Targets 5G Rollout in Europe: Road Map and Vision European Commission has signed strategic deals with Asian market leaders in 5G technology, Japan and South Korea and China to rollout 5G by 2020 Analog Voice Calls Speed: 50 KBPS Digital Voice Calls Speed: 250 KBPS Data Bandwidth: 20 MBPS Video Streaming Bandwidth: 200 MBPS M2M Bandwidth: 10 GBPS
  • 7. 559 225 107 102 220 365 129 73 71 327 R&D Reconnaissance Navigation Earth Observaion Communication 136 59 218 354 161 164 31 89 Heavy 5,400kg+ Large 4,200- 5,400 kg Medium 2,500-4,200 kg Small 500- 2,500 kg Micro 100- 500 kg Mini 10-100 kg Pico 0.1-1 kg Nano 1-10 kg Sub-Trend: Space Jam There will be 1,213 Satellites Launched, Cumulatively, Globally by 2021. 1,213 965 2011* 2021* Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis *Note: The numbers refer to accumulated number of satellites to be launched in the period 2012 to 2021 cumulatively
  • 8. Sub Trend: Augmented Reality Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital data through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases user’s interactivity with the local environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which has implications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities. Reality Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Virtual World 8
  • 9. Sub Trend: Augmented Reality Impacting Different Personal Experiences 9
  • 10. 10 Case Study on Future of Education: ‘Flipped Classroom’ (Khan Academy) Lecture today; Classwork Tomorrow Lecture Online; Classwork Today Teacher – speaks in the classroom Teacher – helps in the classroom 10 Source: Frost & Sullivan
  • 11. Smart is the New Green 11
  • 12. Smart Technology Smart Buildings Smart Mobility Smart Windows Smart CloudsLEVEL 3 Sensing Mechanism + Two-way Flow of Data Communication Smart Chip Smart LightingLEVEL 2 Basic Sensing Mechanism + One-way Data Communication Smart Bandages LEVEL 1 Basic Sensing Mechanism Image Source: Dreamstime and Connected Digital World Source: Frost & Sullivan A smart product is characterized by an intelligent sensing technology that is increasingly being integrated with Internet technologies, thereby allowing the product to react to and communicate with the changing environment around it. This leads to optimal operations and improvement in efficiency. Smart is the New Green—3 Levels of Smart Products and Technologies 12
  • 13. 13
  • 14. 14 Selected Smart Cities in 2025 Global Smart Cities Over 26 Global Cities to be Truly SMART Cities in 2025 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America Source: Forbes Smart City List, Innovation City Index, Specific Smart Project Websites for Each City, Frost & Sullivan Toronto San Francisco Vancouver Paris Boston New York London Berlin Barcelona Amsterdam Seattle Tokyo Singapore Calgary Chicago Vienna Helsinki Oslo Seoul Beijing Tianjin Wuhan Helsinki Sydney Shenzhen Stockholm Santander (upcoming)
  • 15. Smart Buildings—The Triple Zero Architecture of the Future Smart buildings are green, energy efficient, and intelligent, with advanced automated infrastructure that controls and manages aspects, such as lighting, temperature & energy consumption, independently or with minimal human intervention. Commercial Residential Building Automation Systems Reduction in energy consumption up to 30% Smart Meters Lighting HVAC Controls Energy Management Energy Efficiency Image Source: Dreamstime Source: Frost & Sullivan HVAC—Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning EMS—Energy management system Electronic Article Surveillance Systems Contraband Detection Systems CCTV Automotive Security systems Electronic Security Systems 15
  • 16. Sub-Trend - Industry 4.0 Creates New Smarter Factories 4th industrial revolution will expand mobile robot applications in the smart factory from playing mundane jobs like assembly to building sophisticated machinery in production floors Illustrating the role of Cloud Robotics in Industry 4.0 Industry 4.0 • Internet of Things • Cloud platforms • Wireless intelligence • Integrated Industries • IP centralization • Big Data Industry 4.0 benefits • Newer insights on factory operations • Real time trajectory of business • Insights on customers • Sustainable manufacturing Algorithmic learning & data enhancing 16
  • 18. DEMAND RESPONSIVE TRANSPORT (TAXI, BRT) CONNECTED LIVING (including car) INTERCITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT CAR LEASING CAR RENTAL CAR SHARING & POOLING INTRACITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT PHYD INSURANCE DYNAMIC PARKING CONCIERGE SERVICES ENERGY MANAGEMENT MICRO-MOBILITY SOLUTIONS TRAINS/FLIGHTS INTEGRATION APPS, JOURNEY PLANNING, BIG DATA Mobility Configuration will Drive Energy Saving in Transportation In Future Industry Stakeholders Will Showcase Mobility Integration 18
  • 19. The Future of Mobility will be Smart Micro-mobility Integrated mobility Global car sharing Parking management Zero emission taxisNew business models Connected/autonomous transport Telematics based insurance Alternative fuels Demand Response Management 19
  • 20. Demand Responsive Transport Solutions Remove Inefficiency “Fixed” Carpooling Instant – Short Distance Planned – Long Distance Higher Price per KM Lower Price per KM Source: Frost & Sullivan. “On Demand” Carpooling “Taxi” ServicesPublic Transport “Transportation Network Companies” 20
  • 21. 21 Urban Transhipment Areas Urban Consolidation Centres Urban Intermodal Hubs Locker BoxesMicrodistribution Mobile Depots / Freight Buses Sub Trend: Future of Consolidation and Last Mile Delivery More Bundling, Intermodality and Microdistribution in Urban Areas Types of Urban Distribution Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries One Hour Deliveries Click ‘n’ Collect
  • 23. In Future, HS Rail will not only Connect Cities and Countries but will also Connect Continents • China : 25,000 kms by 2025 (7,431 kms in 2010) • 2020 Trans Siberian Link: New Route 66 • Biggest Project: $68 billion California HSR • UK project: £33 billion (by 2026) What are the Opportunities? • High Speed Logistics • Copper-silver and copper-magnesium wires • Steel Companies • Construction tooling, spare parts • Condition monitoring, security, surveillance, • Data handling, Passenger information systems • Mergers and Acquisitions Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 23
  • 25. Top 10 Technologies and Markets to Tackle Carbon Reduction Energy Efficiency and SMART Buildings LED Lighting Revolution Small Scale Distributed Generation SMART Grid & SMART Energy Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage SMART Water Networks Renewables Energy Harvesting Energy Recovery from Waste Gas-fired Power & Shale Gas Exploitation 25
  • 28. Implication : Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future New York City, with a GDP of $1.28 trillion, which is the equivalent of being the 15th largest country in the world, close in economic scale to South Korea ($1.12 trillion). Cities like Istanbul in Turkey will account for more than 22% of country’s GDP What are the Micro Implications? High Economic Power Hub and Spoke Business Model Pilot Project Approach New Mobility Solutions City as a Customer 28
  • 29. Suppliers Manufacturers Retailers Consumers Landfill/Waste Management Linear Economy Circular Economy Reuse/ Redistribute Refurbish/ Remanufacture Recycle $700 billion in consumer goods material savings $1.80 trillion per annum savings in avoiding waste in textiles $1.50 billion in collecting household food waste annually in the United Kingdom Savings in reusing/refurbishing/ recycling Source: ESA; Ellen MacArthur Foundation; Frost & Sullivan New Avenues for Resources: Circular Economy The circular economy will promote efficient use of resources, provide greener production, and support resource optimization, with an opportunity in excess of $1 trillion for the global economy. Circular economy refers to an industrial economy that, contrary to a traditional linear economy, reclaims used materials and recycles them as secondary raw materials for new products. 29
  • 30. Macro Micro From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation Mega Trend Selected trends that impacts key business environments Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a wide ranging impact Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario- building and macro economic forecasts Impact on Future Product/ Technology Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs To 30