15 April 2020. FANRPAN and the Graça Machel Trust (GMT) in conjunction with its African Women in Agribusiness Network, organised a Webinar o establish the effects of COVID-19 on food systems and agribusiness in the Eastern and Southern African (ESA) region.

1. RAPID Assessment of the Socio-
Economic Impact of COVID-19
Brief on the Concept Note
April 2020

2. Objective of the Study
To conduct an in-depth assessment and analysis on the potential and
real impacts of the COVID-19 on Tanzania’s economy, livelihoods and
welfare of vulnerable communities
Results of the study are expected to:
• reveal the degree of vulnerability of Tanzania’s economic sector, i.e., trade, revenue, tourism, travel,
hospitality & leisure industries, banking & insurance, etc to the negative impacts of COVID-19 and the
implications to the wider economy
• reveal the degree of impact on social and public services, vulnerable communities and implications for
achievement of the social dimensions of the FYDP II and SDGs and measures required to increase fiscal space
and capacities to address these issues
• highlight the emerging difficult terrain, which could result in a different path in the way the government &
citizens conduct their businesses, the technologies that will emerge & be used, and the expectations of what
government can do to make life less precarious for millions of workers

3. Possible Crisis Scenarios
Scenarios Source of negative impact Kind of impact
Best case scenario: Things are
starting to get better from here
Foreign as a result of responsive
measures by Governments and
domestic aversive current measures
Mostly economic in terms of temporary freeze of
trade activities and tourism; Minimal deterioration
of human development indicators
Moderate - most likely scenario:
Things will get worse and for a
little longer
Foreign as a result of responsive
measures by Government; Domestic
as a result of more stricter measures
by the Government
Mostly economic in terms of temporary freeze of
trade activities; Some deterioration of human
development indicators mostly on health and
education
Worst case scenario: “All hell
breaks loose” and we do not
recover this year
Foreign as a result of responsive
measures by Government; Domestic
as a result of more stricter measures
by the Government
Both economic and financial including closure of
businesses; Deterioration of human development
indicators - reversal of the gains made on SDGs

4. Significance of Sectors and Degree of Risk
Associated with COVID 19
SECTORS Degree of Risk from COVID 19
Significance and Importance to the Economy Distributional Effect IMMEDIATE MEDIUM TERM LONG TERM
% of GDP Employment % Forex Youth Women March - April May - August
September -
December
Agriculture, Forestry &
Fishing
22.4 13,409,814 11.49% HIGH HIGH LOW MEDIUM HIGH
Mining & Quarrying 5.08 218,024 19.24% HIGH LOW LOW LOW MEDIUM
Manufacturing 8.05 615,323 9.47% HIGH MEDIUM LOW HIGH HIGH
Construction & Real
Estate
13
428,411 HIGH LOW
MEDIUM HIGH HIGH
Wholesale & Retail
Trade
9.12 2,528,771 HIGH HIGH MEDIUM HIGH HIGH
Transportation &
Storage
6.48 521,698 14.56% HIGH LOW MEDIUM HIGH HIGH
Tourism & Hospitality 11.7 807,942 29.18% HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
Financial & Insurance
Activities
3.7
60,607
MEDIUM MEDIUM LOW HIGH HIGH
Education, Human
Health & Social Work
Activities
3.78
580,952
MEDIUM HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH

5. Impact on Agriculture
• Export revenue from trading of crops (e.g. cereals, oilseeds, fibre crops, and horticultural
products) faces the risk of significant reduction due to disruptions in the international
trade system affected by reduced frequency of ships and aeroplanes into and out of
Tanzania
• The risk of reduced foreign exchange earnings commence with immediate effect for
perennial crops such as tea and coffee, horticultural crops (e.g. cut flowers, vegetables,
fruits), fish and crustaceans, and live animals (Eid celebration seasons)
• The country has high dependence on imported wheat, edible oil and sugar to fill
domestic production deficits. The reduced foreign exchange income is likely to affect the
nation’s ability to import such essential food items, leading to price hikes (food price
inflation) and thus affecting food security for the majority low and middle-income
citizens, the majority of whom are youth and women
• Most worrying in case the crisis persists to November-December 2020, is the impact on
timely delivery of fertilizer and other imported farm inputs and machinery, which will
affect farm productivity and production levels of crops in the next farming season

7. Regional Mobility Trend as a Result of COVID-
19