Launch of IFPRI Food Policy Report: Food Security Policies for Arab World
1. Launch of IFPRI Food Policy Report
Beyond the Arab Awakening: Policies and Investments for
Food Security and Poverty Reduction
Presenter: Clemens Breisinger
Co-authors: Olivier Ecker, Perrihan Al-Riffai and Bingxin Yu
IFPRI-UN-ESCWA Conference “Food Secure Arab World”
Beirut, February 6-7, 2012
2. • We thank IFAD for
supporting this
research and the
many people who
made the report
possible
• Available at
www.ifpri.org in
Arabic and English
3. In a data-scarce Arab world, the report
suggests answers to three key questions
based on rigorous economic analysis:
1. Poverty puzzle: did the social indicators really
improve as suggested by official numbers?
2. Food security question: how can food security be
measured and what is the state in the Arab World
3. Growth puzzle: which policies and investments are
key for achieving a food secure Arab World without
poverty?
This presentation focuses on points 2 and 3 (policies)
5. Risk of food insecurity (at the micro level)
Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.
6. Risk of food insecurity (at the macro level)
Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.
7. Risk of food insecurity in Arab World
(plus Iran and Turkey)
Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.
8. Which policies and investments can
improve food security?
1. ‘Child health production function’: ������������ = ������(������������ , ������������ , ������������ )
H = health status, I = health inputs, E = health environment factors, ψ = genetic health
endowment of child k
2. Reduced-form child nutrition model: ������������ = ������(������������ , …)
N = nutritional status, Y = household income
=> Income elasticity wrt. nutritional status:
������������������ ������������������ ������������������������������
������������ = = , approx.: ������������������������������ = ������������ ������������������������������
������������ ������������ ������������������������������
3. Cross-country nutrition model (in first differences):
������������������������������ = ������������ ������������������������������
N = child nutrition situation, Y = national income of country i
4. Decomposition of growth by sectors: ������������������������������ = ������(������������������ ������������������ ������������������������������������ )
η = sector participation component, s = sector share component of sector x (Ag, non-Ag; Ag, Ma,
In, Se value added)
5. Regression model (based on time series data):
Δ������������������ = ������0 + ������Δ������������������������������ + ������������������������−1 + ������������������ + ������������������
N = prevalence of child undernutrition, Y = GDP per capita, t = time period, Z = trend effects
9. Economic growth has to become more pro-
poor in Arab countries, also in agriculture
Source: Breisinger et al. 2012. “Beyond the Arab Awakening.” IFPRI Food Policy Report 25.
***, **, * statistically significant at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively.
10. One reason why agriculture is not as pro-poor in
Arab countries is because it’s no longer the
major source of income for the poor
11. Selected messages for a food secure
Arab world without poverty
• Risk of food insecurity is high in the Arab World, with large
variation between countries and macro- and household
level food insecurity
• For countries with household level food insecurity, focus
on supporting job creating growth for the poor
• For countries with macro-level food insecurity, encourage
exports to finance food imports and agriculture in
countries with potential
While these messages apply for many Arab countries, it is
clear that strategies and investments have to be country-
owned and adopted to the country and sub-national levels.
