1. Towards a
Regional Flagship Report
Beirut, February 2012
Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank

2.  CC is the development challenge of
our time in the Arab countries
 CC is a threat to poverty reduction
and economic growth
 May reverse many of the development
gains made in recent decades
 This calls for action
 We need to act now, act together, and act
differently (World Bank, 2010)

3. Current and
projected
climate
variability and
Calls for climate
change change
adaptation to
reduce the
Increased Vulnerability negative impacts
Other stresses, and build climate
e.g.: resilient
Increase in communities
population,
urbanization
and education
in the Arab
countries

4.  Flagship Report provides:
▪ Information on climate change and consequences and
▪ Practical guidance on CC adaptation for policymakers
▪ Opportunity for collaboration between LAS, 20+ regional researchers
and advisors
 Addresses the
Arab region as a
whole
 The IPCC reports
splits the Arab world
in 2 parts:
 North Africa
 Arabian Peninsula

5.  Climate change is happening now - 2010:
 the warmest year since late 1800s when records began
▪ Kuwait (52.6°C), Iraq & Saudi Arab. (52.0°C), Qatar (50.4°C) & Sudan(49.7°C)
 Arabian Sea experienced the 2nd strongest tropical
cyclone on record
 Coral reefs took the 2nd worse beating because of
record summer ocean-water temperature
 Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods

6.  In recent decades
 Temperatures increased by 0.2-0.3°C per decade
▪ More frequent and intense heat waves
 Less, but more intense rainfall, causing increased
frequency of droughts and floods
 Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods

7.  Temperatures are likely to rise 0.3-0.4°C/decade
 1.5 times faster than the global average
 Most of North Africa and the eastern
Mediterranean will become drier
 Greater variability and more extremes

8.  Throughout history people have coped with a
harsh environment
 2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300
years of reduced rainfall and colder temperatures
that forced people to abandon their rainfed fields
in NE Syria
 With CC, coping strategies that people have
exploited throughout history may no longer be
available and adequate

10.  Temperature increases and changes in
precipitation are likely to
 CGE model
 Reduce household incomes - Syria $3.4 B, Yemen $5.7 B
by 2050 (taking into account autonomous adaptation)
 Droughts
 Reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non-
drought year
 Increase poverty levels by 0.3-1.4 pp

11.  Droughts
 reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non-
drought year (CGE)
 Worsens food security significantly - the poor are hit
the hardest
▪ loss of capital, reduced incomes, and higher food prices
▪ poverty levels increase by 0.3-1.4 pp
▪ Poor farm households are most affected, followed by rural
nonfarm and urban households

12.  In 2050, the region will likely face a 10% reduction in
water run-off due to climate change
 Today there is a 16% renewable water supply gap, in 2050
 The region likely face a 50% renewable water supply gap
450
Renewable Water Resources
400 16% 37% 51%
350
Total Water Demand
300
Water, km3
250 % of demand
unmet by
200 renewable
150 sources
100
50
0
2000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050
year

13.  70% of the poorest people live in rural areas and
 Among the most vulnerable to CC
 Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080
due to high dependence on climate-sensitive
agriculture
 Stresses to local food production systems calls for
increased import
 Global food price rises, especially spikes, will decrease food
access for vulnerable households
 Social safety nets and other programs are called for

14. Urbanization %
80
 ~70% live along the
37,000 km 60
developed coastline; 40
in low-lying coastal 20
zones
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Arab World World Yemen UAE Tunisia
 Without basic services, residents of informal settlements
have little capacity to adapt to climate hazards
 CC vulnerability needs to be considered up front when
making infrastructure investment decisions

15.  CC impacts men and women differently
 Women often responsible for natural resource & household management
 & have limited participation in the decision-making process
 => Smart climate policy is inclusive process- youth, men &
women take part in the decision-making to increase climate
resilience
90 Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, % of Economically Active Population (2004)
80
70
60
50
40
Women
30
Men
20
10
0
Algeria Djibouti Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen

17.  Diversify
 Economic activities both at household level & national level
to increase climate resilience
 Integrate Adaptation
 Into all projects; not stand-alone adaptation projects
 Apply for All
 Rich and poor and most sectors will be impacted by CC
 Leadership
 A holistic approach is called for, incl. youth , men & women

18.  October 2011: Draft to LAS & Gov’s for comments
▪ The draft to be presented and discussed at the JCEDAR, LAS
▪ Consultations in: Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and UAE
 January & February 2012: Incorporating comments
provided by the governments, etc. & finalize report
 Spring 2012: Launch Report, Movie, Portal, ...

19.  Italian Development Cooperation
 European Union
 International Fund for Agricultural Development
 League of Arab States
 World Bank’s MENA Region & Environment Unit

20. Thank You ‫شكرا‬