Ten major global trends for 2030

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The third programme has taken place during 2020, engaging more experts on the pivotal shifts via virtual workshops and wider community debate.Here are ten issues that will provide future challenge and opportunity. E7 Not G7 As global GDP rises, the seven largest emerging economies (E7) have increasing economic power. The relative influence of the old G7 Western powers declines. Data Sovereignty Large-population emerging economies see the protection of their data as a national priority. Wider data sharing is restricted to within national borders. The Race to Net Zero Cities, countries and companies compete to set the standards for the planet.Fully reducing emissions is central for energy, health and economic targets. Electric Aviation As the pressure to decarbonise aviation builds and technology challenges are addressed, using electric planes for short / medium-haul flights gathers support. The Stakeholder Society The shift from maximising shareholder value to a stakeholder focus accelerates. Organisations’ purpose, action and performance measurement realign. Migrating Diseases Health systems struggle to address the impact of climate change. The increased spread of ‘old’ vector-borne diseases challenge nations for whom they are ‘new’. Peak Soil After water and air quality, attention shifts to soil. It impacts everything from food and health to conflict and migration. Action follows deeper understanding. True Personalisation Ubiquitous facial recognition and digital identity combine with wider AI adoption to enable the creation and delivery of truly individualised experiences. Resilience by Design Global supply chains evolve to be more flexible, shared regional supply webs. Competitors access shared, not proprietary, networks and systems. Proof of Immunity Public concerns about health security override worries about privacy. Governments integrate immunity and health data with national identities. More details on www.futureagenda.org

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Ten Major Global Shifts for 2030
Insights From Multiple Expert Discussions Around The World
7 December 2020

Future Agenda
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The World in 2020
The first global Future Agenda programme in 2010 was hosted by Vodafone.
Fifty workshops across 16 topics in 25 locations with 1500 experts identified a
wide range of 10-year shifts, over 80% of which have now come to pass.
Lease Everything Global Pandemics
Active Elderly People TrackingDrone Wars

The World in 2025
A second larger programme in 2015 was supported by 50 organisations.
120 workshops in 45 cities engaged with over 5000 experts across 24 topics.
Issues identified have become a central focus for major innovation globally.
Plastic Oceans Air Quality
Energy Storage Value of DataTruth and Illusion

World in 2030
The third programme has taken place during 2020, engaging more experts on
the pivotal shifts via virtual workshops and wider community debate.
Here are ten issues that will provide future challenge and opportunity.

E7 Not G7
As global GDP rises, the seven largest emerging economies (E7) have increasing
economic power. The relative influence of the old G7 Western powers declines.

Data Sovereignty
Large-population emerging economies see the protection of their data as a
national priority. Wider data sharing is restricted to within national borders.

The Race to Net Zero
Cities, countries and companies compete to set the standards for the planet.
Fully reducing emissions is central for energy, health and economic targets.

Electric Aviation
As the pressure to decarbonise aviation builds and technology challenges are
addressed, using electric planes for short / medium-haul flights gathers support.

The Stakeholder Society
The shift from maximising shareholder value to a stakeholder focus accelerates.
Organisations’ purpose, action and performance measurement realign.

Migrating Diseases
Health systems struggle to address the impact of climate change. The increased
spread of ‘old’ vector-borne diseases challenge nations for whom they are ‘new’.

Peak Soil
After water and air quality, attention shifts to soil. It impacts everything from
food and health to conflict and migration. Action follows deeper understanding.

True Personalisation
Ubiquitous facial recognition and digital identity combine with wider AI
adoption to enable the creation and delivery of truly individualised experiences.

Resilience by Design
Global supply chains evolve to be more flexible, shared regional supply webs.
Competitors access shared, not proprietary, networks and systems.

Proof of Immunity
Public concerns about health security override worries about privacy.
Governments integrate immunity and health data with national identities.

Future Agenda, 84 Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141
www.futureagenda.org | @futureagenda

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At a time when there is much speculation on what the next twelve months may bring, some are also looking ahead to prepare for the longer term. What will the UK be like in 2030 when the nation is post-Covid, post-Brexit and post-Johnson? Now that vaccines are being rolled out and the initial outline hard Brexit deal has been done, how will the UK fair over the decade – economically, socially and demographically? What changes are already locked-in and what is open to future variation? Based on numerous discussions with a wide range of experts across the UK in late 2020, this document explores some of the key potential trends for the next decade and highlights where the UK may be heading. Having a well-defined future view is never easy – particularly in times of uncertainty. However, if we can differentiate between the certain, the probable and the possible we can build a clearer picture of the future which may help to challenge assumptions. Since 2010, Future Agenda has been using open foresight to explore decade-long trends with a high degree of accuracy. The World in 2020, written in 2010 for example, accurately anticipated a range of developments such as a global pandemic, the challenges around data privacy, the scaling up of electric and autonomous vehicles, the widespread use of drones and the building impact of solar energy. All of these were anticipated through extensive expert dialogue across multiple disciplines to curate an integrated, informed perspectives which can be accessed by everyone. We used a similar approach to explore the pivotal shifts ahead for the UK. Following multiple expert discussions including academics, regional and central government, social and business leaders, as well as the military, this document summarises eight areas of alignment about UK 2030 but also highlights three fields where there is substantial difference of opinion. Our conversations identified eight core areas where we can have confidence that changes will take place. These trends are: 1. A Changing Demographic Mix 2. Accelerating to Zero Carbon 3. Improved Digital Connectivity 4. Declining Economic Influence 5. More Devolved Power 6. Rising Inequality 7. Emphasis on the Local 8. UK Leadership

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Data as an Asset – A Top Risk? The concept of data being accounted for as an 'asset' is increasingly considered to be a top future risk. The fifth of our 2030 digital workshops in collaboration with The Conference Board explored varied potential data risks (Many thanks to Ellen Hexter and Sara Murray for organising). Rated top by 50 business leaders for future impact, and second for likely change, was a foresight that “organisations will be obliged to account for what data they own or access. As such they will be required to regularly report on their full data portfolio.” (See attached PDF) Particular concerns were raised on; how organisations will best assign value to their data; how it will be treated as an asset; who will audit this; whether ownership will be transferred with use and how, if valued, data will be taxed. Some felt that by 2030 there will be guidelines, standards and frameworks in place – other were less convinced. Most however agreed that many business models will change. To explore this topic more see section 4.6 in the global report on https://www.deliveringvaluethroughdata.org Add your view via @futureagenda on twitter or via LinkedIn on https://www.linkedin.com/posts/innovationstrategy_future-data-risk-workshop-stimulus-activity-6714470359971700736-MunM

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While some regions gain from better water management, much of the world’s population increasingly depend on water moved from one river basin to another. New options are explored to achieve this economically and with reduced socio-environmental damage. As part of the World in 2030 global open foresight project, this point of view shares some perspective on changes ahead. With climate change, increasing urbanisation, growing contamination, higher water consumption, more intensive farming and rising industrial use in many economies all having significant and combined impact, as the global population approaches 10 billion, but the net amount of water on the planet stays constant, concerns over water stress have been building. With 70% of water used for agriculture, a quarter of humanity is now facing a looming water crisis. A broadening range of urban areas need multiple innovations to provide water to cities throughout the year. Although better water management and the decreasing cost of desalination are having impact in some regions, in many others, and especially for fast-growing inland cities, the task of ensuring continued water access is mounting. Simply moving water from one river basin to another is not straightforward. It is fraught with technological, environmental, economic and socio-political challenge. There are however several developments underway to enable more effective long-distance movement of water – some focused on building new infrastructure at scale and others looking to imaginatively repurpose existing assets to help meet the inevitable future demand. Share your views @futureagenda

Moving water world in 2030

Future Agenda

Hospitals of the Future In partnership with Mott MacDonald we are exploring how hospital design will change in the next decade. Building on insights gained from multiple healthcare expert workshops around the world, this is an initial perspective that share some key thoughts on how and where we may see most change. Starting with context on shifts in healthcare more generally, from slide 28 onwards it includes 22 proposals for future design focus. These range from hub and spoke ecosystems and post-Covid reconfiguration to more flexible spaces and the impact of digital theatres. As part of a global Open Foresight programme, we are now sharing these views to gain feedback for inclusion in a more detailed point of view that will be published later in the year. If you would like to add in your opinions on which issues will be driving most change in hospitals of the future, we would welcome input either directly to us by email (tim.jones@futureagenda.rg) or via this short survey: https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/J9S8SB6 Many thanks in advance for your collaboration on another key topic for future change.

Future of hospital design initial perspective - sept 2020

Future Agenda

Porous Organisations Here is our latest 2030 foresight. This time we focus on the challenges for the future of work. Increasing competition for talent forces organisations to open their doors to a growing number of independent workers. This makes it difficult to maintain corporate knowledge and becomes a challenge for business big and small. In a highly volatile and increasingly complex landscape, many must learn how to manage a seamless flow of knowledge and ideas so they can adapt to changing customer demands, ensure capabilities are maintained and keep the doors to innovation open. Looking ahead, it seems that only the wealthiest and most attractive organisations (in the main technology companies) will be able to retain the loyalty of their employees. For everyone else, building and preserving corporate know-how within increasingly porous organisational boundaries will become a priority. As ever your thoughts and provocations are very welcome. To access via website https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/porous-organisations/

Porous organisations 2020

Future Agenda

New solid-state batteries offer safer, higher performance than existing options and become viable options for use across multiple sectors. Competitive pricing and proactive policymaking accelerate global uptake. This foresight is part of the World in 2030 project exploring the key global shifts for the next decade - https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/ Battery development has become a priority area for a broadening range of companies in recent years. Significant investment is underway as a number of new technologies compete for fast-growing markets. Five years ago, we identified that energy storage was the missing piece of the renewables jigsaw: “If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar energy as well as accelerate the electrification of the transport industry.” Today, as economies focus on faster decarbonisation and increasing electrification, particularly in transportation, the speed of new battery development has become a central issue for many researchers, policy makers, investors and companies. Why is this? If we can get significantly more energy from a lighter, more compact, but affordable battery then the implications are enormous. Not only will this accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles by extending their range and providing a cheap way to store renewable, particularly low cost solar, energy, but it will also release a host of new developments in other areas from wearable electronics to electric planes, drones and scooters. Given the demand for high performing batteries is building, it is hardly surprising that there is as much focus today on creating the batteries of tomorrow as there was when the first rechargeable battery was invented 160 years ago: according to a USPTO search in the past decade or so over 200,000 battery related patents have been issued. The rush to deliver the next generation technology is bringing together a host of new partnerships and foremost in many discussions is the potential impact of solid-state batteries. Within the next decade these could become the catalysts for substantial and lasting change across many sectors.

Better batteries

Future Agenda

Soil is fundamental, fragile and finite. It impacts everything from food and health to conflict and migration. Deeper understanding of its degradation raises the significance of soil to equal that of climate change and biodiversity loss. We know that the quality of our soil is the key to the food we grow, the clothes we wear and the water we drink. It recycles nutrients, sequesters carbon, is fundamental to biodiversity, helps keep our ecosystems in balance and is an essential part of our general wellbeing. But, although soil represents the difference between survival and extinction for most terrestrial life, human activities have caused it harm leading to compaction, loss of structure, nutrient degradation, increasing salinity and denuding landscapes. Furthermore, the urgent need to preserve soil receives relatively little attention from governments. An unsung hero of our planet, it is fragile, infinitely important and finite. Why do we treat it with such disregard? As part of the World in 2030 programme, this foresight explores the future of soil and the stresses ahead https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/peaksoil/

Peak soil

Future Agenda

Future of Retail As physical shopping around the world variously restarts post-lockdown, a number of organisations are, unsurprisingly, asking what the medium and long-term changes for the future of retail may be. While digital shifts are still at the fore for many, others are concerned about trends impacting retail from outside the sector as well as emerging consumer behaviours. Ahead of a forthcoming workshop, we have collated a number of future trends that have been proposed by several experts in recent months. If you would like to let us know which you think may have greatest impact - and why, as well as what other shifts are missing from the current view, we will update and share a more detailed perspective in the next few weeks. @futureagenda www.futureagenda.org

Future of retail emerging trends 2020

Future Agenda

Hidden Organisations of Influence The growth in globally influential, yet unaccountable, organisations that are able to undertake surveillance, steer agendas and shape government policy has wider impact. In theory it has never been so difficult to remain below the radar. 24/7 news, constant surveillance and demands for greater accountability make it is seemingly impossible for any corporate, political or, on occasion, personal activity to go unnoticed. And yet widespread concerns about the number of increasingly influential, unaccountable, commercially driven organisations that are operating with rapidly expanding reach were often expressed during recent workshops. True, wealthy individuals and organisations have long had a disproportionate influence over elected representatives but the amount of money some companies now have to spend is unprecedented. Furthermore, new technologies have made it easier for others to access information, exert influence and move funds around the world in ways which are almost impossible to trace. The truth is they can operate effectively and invisibly without being restricted by the traditional checks and balances. At a time when calls for greater transparency are escalating it seems that meaningful oversight is lacking. For more details on this and the wider Future Agenda programme see www.futureagena.org or @futureagenda

Hidden organisations of influence world in 2030

Future Agenda

Plus de Future Agenda (20)

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Moving water world in 2030

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