Beyond 2020

Beyond>2020

Selected scenarios for
the business context beyond 2020
Copyright 2011 All Rights Reserved

Beyond>2020
The end of ‘products’ & ‘manufacturing’
25% of retail products are manufactured at the
point of use. Raw materials, logistics and retail
industries in turmoil.

For those cases where physical products are still needed they will be ‘manufactured’
where and when needed on desktop ‘3D printers’. Want a new pair of designer shoes?
Look it up at JimmyChoo.com and print a pair now. Want a mobile phone? Just click and
print.
The new retail therapy culture is “I want it now and I want it cheap” and has spawned a
merger of Wal-Mart and Amazon.com.
‘

Beyond>2020
The end of ‘products’ & ‘manufacturing’
Expensive ‘Products’ have become
free ‘Services’.
Answering mc > Mobile phone
Walkman/iPod > iPhone/everywhere
Internet/Comms > Basic Human Right
Washing machines > SM fabrics + US
We got used to this at the end of the 20th Century as physical answering machines
were replaced by free ‘answering services’ on mobile phones. No amount of
benchmarking would have identified Aiwa’s new competitors!
So Apple’s Pod became a service on the iPhone and every other device. Personal
communications have become a basic human right (the UN, June 2010) and
bandwidth a total commodity. No one buys a washing machine anymore as each
wardrobe contains a tiny ultrasound device that shakes the dirt and grime out of your
‘shape memory’ clothes that remember the shape they were when new.


Beyond>2020
Retail & professional services reinvented
75% of retail is online. ‘Shopping’ has
become an entertainment for the elite.
Most business processes are audited in
real time.

Ubiquitous connectivity has brought real competition, and on-site 3D printing, plus
superb logistics (again driven by competition) have turned malls into high-end
entertainment palaces or derelict dumps.
Professional services companies are grappling to find new annuity revenue sources.
But clients love the end of the “tyranny of the annual audit.”

Beyond>2020
Business on digital steroids
‘Everything’ that can be automated is.
90% of business processes are online
and audited in real-time.
Customer service outsourced
to those who know it best! Customers.

Almost everything is measured, counted and audited in real time, making business
reporting a non-event. And putting the customer in charge of their own service,
which Amazon perfected 20 years ago, has become the only way. Customers –
well, they just love it! The old adage “The customer is King” has finally come true.

Beyond>2020
100 is the new 60
Bio and nanotech have revolutionised health
care and prevention.
Those who will live to 200
have already been born.

Now there is talk of life beyond 500. Population growth is limited to the ‘poor’
countries - in rich countries negative growth is complemented by carefully
‘managed immigration’. But the big question is – will you die before you run out of
money? There are selective incentives for euthanasia.

Beyond>2020
The third youth revolution
Age & experience no longer equals power.
Youngsters commit the largest (electronic)
crimes, are fighting virtual wars and
managing fractal investment portfolios.
Most financial management is now based on chaos theory and fractal
algorithms – and the kids just ‘get it’!
Hiring the best is no longer a viable strategy. Corporations compete
aggressively to have the ‘coolest workplace’, and to attract the ‘brightest
young things’.
It is recognised that people are no longer a company’s most important asset –
relationships are. The under 30s can handle twenty times the number of
relationships that their seniors can.


Beyond>2020

Everyone is connected – and it’s a
basic human right
‘Everyone’ is connected, for ‘free’!
The idea of the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ is
out-dated.
In a world of ‘digital plenty’, there are only
the ‘haves’ and the ‘want-nots’!
Top-quality digital education is available to virtually anyone who wants it – and
connectivity, through a slew of cool mobile devices (including a few implanted
versions) has become effectively free. Most governments provide broadband access
as a basic service.
There’s no reason not to be part of this hyper-connected world – unless you
deliberately choose to opt out.

Beyond>2020
Nothing is forgotten – everything
can be ‘googled’
Every detail of personal and work life is
recorded and stored in ‘The Cloud’.

A decade ago, cloud computing was an emerging technology and the battleground of
giants like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google. Today, we don’t care who is
running ‘The Cloud’; we just use it and rely on it. Remember personal backups and
corporate data-centers? Archaic and forgotten!
Everything we do in business and in our personal lives, from records to
entertainment is stored in the cloud and available anytime, anywhere and on any
device. Privacy and security concerns are a thing of the past. Nothing is forgotten,
and everything can be found.

Beyond>2020
Size means nothing.
Scale is it.
Everyone can access sophisticated
networks, computing power & software.
Today, size means nothing. Even the smallest entrepreneurial
business has access to virtually unlimited computing power and
sophisticated software, in The Cloud. It’s all about scale, and anyone
can scale! We can access virtual server networks in an instant, on
demand. Whether a contract calls for genomic sequencing for
thousands, or actuarial calculations on a real-time basis, the answer is
“Yes, we can!”

Barriers to entry have disappeared, and agility is more important than
strength. Innovation rules the day.


Beyond>2020
Beyond ‘Green’
‘Eco-wars’ have polarised the world. Only
the previously rich West still has green
passions & is fighting holy wars…
…but can’t afford the consequences.

Beyond 2020, reality vs. morals and principles has become much more complex – even
though openness has driven the issues to the surface. While much of the world exploits
green business opportunities and we enjoy the benefits of green energy breakthroughs,
environmental factors have divided businesses and countries. The new economic leaders
from the East have prospered, with a pragmatic, business-like approach.


Beyond>2020
The new gold
Water is the new scarcity and the new
opportunity. Legislation gives every product
a ‘water index’. Bottled water is now the
preserve of the ultra-insensitive.
By 2014 it was clear – water was the critical issue facing our planet, or rather, the lack of
potable water, and its impact on our ability to feed earth’s almost 8 billion people.
Today in 2022 we have to cope with water taxes on every product, cradle to cradle water
indexes for every product. Even meat consumption is under pressure. The water ratings
are made public on all packaging, billboards and in every advertisement in every medium,
making the old cigarette health warnings seem tame and mild by comparison!
China, always seeing further ahead than Western nations, lead the race for water security
with its Tibetan glacier plan. No country or business can escape the intense public
scrutiny of its business model and the water implications.


Beyond>2020
Naked Leadership
Leaders have learnt to thrive in a
ubiquitously open & transparent world –
beyond the luxuries of hierarchies &
control. They understand the future as well
as they do the past. They network their
dreams and inspire followership.

Uber-connectivity has demonstrated to a generation of young leaders that collaboration
is possible, simple - and delivers great results. Individual ego is being left behind in the
pursuit of new sustainable business and government, although many politicians are
struggling with the concept.

Beyond>2020
Betting the Pharm
Pharming is booming!
In response to huge demands for
food, water and health,
bio- and nanotech have spawned massive
new industries.

The start of the 21st Century saw the glory days of the “old” Information Revolution.
But now the new Information Revolution is in full swing, with bio- and nanotechnology
at last delivering on their promises. Many people work at jobs in industries that simply
did not exist 10 years ago.


Beyond>2020
Bring your own!
The company computer has gone the way of
the company car.
BYO is the norm.
Cloud services hunt down, delete and
replace data and tools, instantly!

One of the biggest impacts has been on traditional IT departments. With everything
from management of devices to software support becoming Cloud-driven services,
old IT drones have had to reinvent themselves – as did auditors and other bean-counters.


Beyond>2020
A truly open society
Openness and transparency are not just
corporate- and political-speak.
They are integral to cultural norms - with
profound implications.
A decade ago, FutureWorld called it “the greatest power shift in human
history” – the movement of power from governments and institutions
into the hands of connected individuals. We saw it happening in the
Arab Spring, and in the “99%” protest movement that spread around
the globe.
Now, openness and transparency are truly embedded in business,
politics and society. The implications are profound, as an entire
generation of last-decade politicians and business leaders have learnt,
to their cost.


Beyond>2020
Beyond knowledge
Beyond the Knowledge Economy -
knowledge has zero value - it’s all available
to everyone from birth.
New lenses create quantum value.

Remember the old saying: “Knowledge is power”? Not in a world where all knowledge
is available to everyone. This has powerfully demonstrated that knowledge alone is
not the definer of value – it’s the ability to turn knowledge into intelligence and creativity.
Making access to knowledge available to all has sparked dramatic innovation.


Beyond>2020
Conscious Capitalism established
Thriving on inclusivity and sustainable
profits

Greed doesn’t work as a strategy – finally, the penny has dropped! Business leaders
have embraced inclusivity, aligning commercial interests, community pressures and job
creation. Leaders have developed ‘quantum relationship’ skills to engage with a diverse
set of role players.


Beyond>2020
Welcome to the rEconomy!
In this ubiquitously connected world, people
are no longer your most valuable asset…
…relationships are!

Return-on-relationships is the key value-driver in this ultra-connected world. Winning
businesses seek to build long-term partnerships, rather than pursue short-term “win-lose”
gains. People will always be important – but the capacity to network is priceless!


Beyond>2020

Market forces shape
everything!
It’s a war for talent and
customers.
Create a cool culture to attract BYTs.
Connect your business to the hearts of your
customers, communities and individuals.

Beyond>2020

Winners have learnt to thrive
on chaos and turbulence.
Incrementalism doesn’t cut it anymore!
Profound success is not predictable.
Taking risks is safer
than doing nothing.


Beyond>2020

Markets are dynamic
and chaotic –
the most competitive ever.
It’s the end of ‘competition’.
Winners find white-space opportunities
where there are no competitors.

Beyond>2020

The future is unknowable –
it’s the field of all
possibilities!
Uncertainty is that moment
of real freedom,
beyond historic baggage.


Beyond>2020
The future is the only
destination we have.
We’ll spend most of
the rest of our lives there.
Choose your future carefully!

Beyond>2020
Explore these alternate futures further with MindBullets and FuturesForum

…at www.FutureWorld.org


Beyond 2020

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