The Immutable Principles of project success are applicable in all domains, including capital projects

1. Webinar Safran 2017
5 Immutable Principles of
Capital Project Success

2. Making the Impossible Possible, Kim Cameron and Marc Lavine, 2006
Lessons learned from the cleanup of America’s most
dangerous Nuclear Weapons Plan

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4. 5 Immutable Principles of Project Success
1. Define what Done looks like in units of measures.
meaningful to the decisions makers.
2. Have a plan to reach Done at the needed time for a planned
cost, with the needed Capabilities.
3. Have the resources needed to reach Done as planned.
4. Know what impediments will be countered along the way
to Done and have a plan for handling them.
5. Know how to measure progress to plan, to increase the
probability the project will arrive at the needed, for the
planned budget, and the product will met the needs of the
customer.

5. What Does Done Look Like?
 Develop a list of features or deliverables
and describe the technical capabilities for
each, in units of measure meaningful to
the decision makers.
 Model the interdependencies between
these deliverables.
 Develop the Measures of Effectiveness
and Measures of Performance and Key
Performance Parameters for each
Capability.
Principle ①

6. “Done” Provides a Capability to Do Something
19 October 1899 Robert Goddard decided that he wanted to "fly without wings" to Moon.
Principle ①

7. How Do We Get to Done when planned, for the
planned cost?
 Build a Plan and a Schedule to implement
that Plan with the work to be performed.
 Define “Packages of Work” for all the
activities with deliverables defined as
“Exit Criteria”
 Link the Accomplishment and Criteria
vertically and then link the Work Packages
horizontally.
Principle ②

8.  Vertical traceability AC  SA PE
 Horizontal traceability WP WPAC
Program Deliverables
Define the maturity
of a Capability at a point in
time.
Significant Accomplishments
Represent requirements
that enable Capabilities.
Accomplishment Criteria
Exit Criteria for the Work
Packages that fulfill Requirements.
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
package
Work
Package
Work
Package
The Schedule Connects Work to Deliverables
Principle ②

9. The Schedule Shows Progress To Plan
 Deliverables represent the required mission
capabilities and its value as defined by the business
and shared by the contractor team.
 When all deliverables and their Work Packages are
complete, they are not revisited or reopened.
– They are 100% done.
 The progression of Work Packages defines the
increasing maturity of the deliverables.
– The mission value of the deliverables to the customer
increases as Work Packages are completed.
 Completion of Work Packages is represented by the
Physical Percent Completion of the deliverables.
– Either 0%/100% or Apportioned Milestones are used
to state the completion of each Work Package.
Mission
Capabilities
Technical
Capabilities
Work Packages
Deliverables
Principle ②

10. The schedule tells us the order of the planned work
Principle ②

11. Do We Have The Resources To Reach Done?
 List the needed staff and materials for the
project.
 Assign these staff and materials to the
work packages
 Estimate the cost of the staff and
materials and the impact of this variance
on the total project cost and delivery
schedule
Principle ③

12. We need the right people, with the right skills, at
the right cost, at the right time to have any hope of
project success
Principle ③

13. What Are The Impediments To Reaching Done?
 Make a list of risks and rank them by
priority.
 Assess impact on cost and schedule for
each risk and the dependencies of these
risks on external and internal drivers
 Assess the probability of occurrence and
the probabilistic impact on cost and
schedule impact, cost of handling, and
cost of the residual risk after handling
Principle ④

14. All Risk Comes From Uncertainty
Principle ④
Uncertainty
Irreducible
(Aleatory)
Reducible
(Epistemic)
Natural Variability
Ambiguity
Ontological
Uncertainty
Probabilistic Events
Probabilistic
Impacts
Periods of Exposure

15. Epistemic Uncertainty and Aleatory Variability
are both risk drivers†
Principle ④
Epistemic Uncertainty
 Epistemic uncertainty is the scientific
uncertainty due to limited data and
knowledge in the model of the
process
 Epistemic uncertainty can, in
principle, be eliminated with
sufficient study
 Epistemic (or internal) uncertainty
reflects the possibility of errors in our
general knowledge.
Aleatory Variability
 Aleatory uncertainties arise from the
inherent randomness of a variable
and are characterized by a Probability
Density Function
 The knowledge of experts cannot be
expected to reduce aleatory
uncertainty although their knowledge
may be useful in quantifying the
uncertainty
Randomness With Knowable Probabilities Randomness With Unknowable Probabilities
The probability of occurrence can be defined
through a variety of methods. The outcome is
a probability of occurrence of the event
A Probability Density Function (PDF) generates
a collection of random variables used to model
durations and costs
† Uncertainty in Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Review, A.R. Daneshkhan

16. Risk Reduction Activities
Principle ④

17. How Do We Measure Our Progress Toward Done?
 Describe the outcomes of the work effort
using language the customer understands
 Assign Technical Performance Measures
to the Deliverables
 Assign Measures of Performance,
Measures of Effectiveness, Key
Performance Parameters, and Integrate
these throughout the project
Principle ⑤

18. Measures Physical Percent Complete
Principle ⑤

19. The Core Problem in Project Management
 Risk Register is the source of all variance analysis
 Corrective actions needed to “KEEP IT GREEN”†
 Risk Retirement planning starts with the Risk Register
 Our goal is to provide actionable information to the
PM used to engage the contractor in a fact based
discussion about program performance.
Unmitigated risk is the primary source of
Unanticipated growth in the
Estimation at Complete
† Rick Price, Senior Manager, Procurement and Subcontract Management Master Planning, Lockheed Martin, Denver, CO
Principle ⑤

20. The Five Principles Of Project Success
What does done look like?
How do we get there?
Are there enough resources?
What are impediments to progress?
How do we measure progress?

21. This is What DONE Looks Like
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