From Needed Capabilities to Project Deliverables - On Time, On Budget, On Specification

+ From Needed Capabilities to
Project Deliverables ‒ On Time, On
Budget, On Specification
A step by step guide to increasing the Probability of Program success
start with the WBS, developing the Integrated Master Plan and
Integrated Master Schedule, risk adjusting the IMS, and measuring
progress to plan in units of measure meaningful to the decision
makers.
Performance–Based Project Management®, Copyright © Glen B. Alleman, 2002 - 2016 1

Performance–Based Project Management®, Copyright © Glen B. Alleman, 2002 - 2016
Research shows 70-80% of a project manager’s time is spent in communicating
inside and outside the project.
We need processes and tools that radiate project information as the foundation
for communication to increase project success 2

+ The Best Communication Inside and Outside
the Project is a Big Visible Chart
3

1. What Does DONE Look
Like?
2. How Do We Get to
DONE?
3. Is There Enough Time,
Money, and Resources,
To Get to DONE?
4. What Impediments Will
Be Encountered Along
The Way to DONE?
5. What Are The Units Of
Measures For Progress
All Successful Projects Must Provide
Credible Answers To These 5
Questions …
4 Performance–Based Project Management®, Copyright © Glen B. Alleman, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

5 Principles of
Project
Success
5 Practices of Performance‒Based Project Management®
Identify
Needed
Capabilities
Define
Requirements
from Capabilities
Establish
Performance
Measurement
Baseline (PMB)
Execute the
PMB as planned
Perform
Continuous Risk
Management
(CRM)
What does Done
Look like in
Meaningful Units of
Measures?
ConOps,
SOO, SOW
Technical And
Operational
Delivery Plan
Incremental
Maturity
Assessment
(MOE, MOP,
TPM, KPP)
Assess Physical
Percent
Complete
Risk
Identification
How are we going
to get there? Integrated
Master Plan
(IMP)
Work
Breakdown
Structure (WBS) Integrated
Master Schedule
(IMS)
Iterative and
Incremental
Delivery
Risk Analysis
What Resources
do we need along
the way?
Resource
Management
Plan (RMP)
Future
Performance
Forecasting
Risk Planning
What Impediments
will we encounter
along the way?
4 Levels Of
Uncertainty
Planning
Technical And
Programmatic
Risks Assigned
To All WBS
Deliverables
Risk Adjustment
To Cost And
Schedule
Measures
Risk Adjusted
Performance
Measurement
Baseline
Risk Tracking
How do we
Measure Progress
to plan?
Measures Of
Effectiveness
(MOE)
Measures Of
Performance
(MOP)
Technical
Performance
Measures (TPM)
Earned Value
Management
(EVM)
Risk Control

+ Increasing Probability of Program
Success through Information Radiators
 WBS – it shows what is being delivered and what work processes are
used for this delivery (MIL-STD-881-C).
 Integrated Master Plan (IMP) – shows how the deliverables increase in
their maturity toward the final product.
 Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) – shows the sequence of work to
increases the maturity of the deliverables.
 Programmatic and Technical Risk Management – shows what
reducible and irreducible risks are present on the project and what
mitigation activities are needed increase the probability of project
success.
 Performance Measurement and Reporting – shows how Physical
Percent Complete to date, Estimate to Complete, and Estimate At
Complete are compared to plan.
 Root Cause Analysis ‒ most efforts are project corrective actions are
addressing symptoms not the Cause. Without identify the Root Cause the
symptoms are not removed.
6

+
Capabilities Based
Planning
 Define operational concepts
as capabilities.
 Define Capabilities through
Scenarios or Use Cases.
 Asses Needs, Cost, and Risks
of the Capability
simultaneously.
 Define explicit, balanced, and
feasible alternatives.
Planning, under uncertainty, to provide
capabilities suitable for a wide range of
modern–day challenges and
circumstances while working within an
economic framework that necessitates
choice.”
7

+
Identify Needed Capabilities
8
What Should We Do?
Where Are We Now?
Abstracted from:
“Capabilities‒Based Planning – How It Is Intended
To Work And Challenges To Its Successful
Implementation,” Col. Stephen K. Walker, United
States Army, U. S. Army War College, March 2005

+
Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)
9
Measures of Effectiveness …
 Are stated in units meaningful to the buyer,
 Focus on capabilities independent of any technical
implementation,
 Are connected to the mission success.
Operational measures of success that are closely related to
the achievements of the mission or operational objectives
evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set
of conditions.
MoE’s Belong to the End User
“Technical Measurement,” INCOSE–TP–2003–020–01

+
Measures of Performance (MOP)
10
Measures of Performance are …
 Attributes that assure the system has the capability
and capacity to perform,
 Assessment of the system to assure it meets design
requirements to satisfy the MoE.
Measures that characterize physical or functional attributes
relating to the system operation, measured or estimated
under specific conditions.
MoP’s belong to the Program – Developed by the Systems
Engineer, Measured By CAMs, and Analyzed by PP&C

+ Technical Performance Measures
(TPM)
11
Technical Performance Measures …
 Assess design progress,
 Define compliance to performance requirements,
 Identify technical risk,
 Are limited to critical thresholds,
 Include projected performance.
Attributes that determine how well a system or system
element is satisfying or expected to satisfy a technical
requirement or goal

+
Key Performance Parameters (KPP)
12
Key Performance Parameters …
 Have a threshold or objective value,
 Characterize the major drivers of performance,
 Are considered Critical to Customer (CTC).
Measures that Represent the capabilities and characteristics
so significant that failure to meet them can be cause for
reevaluation, reassessing, or termination of the program
The acquirer defines the KPPs during the operational concept
development – KPPs say what DONE looks like

+ Capabilities Map from Strategy to
Project Execution
13
Performance Goal Key Performance
Indicator (KPI)
Critical Success Factor
(CSF)
Strategic Objective
Be The Preferred
Supplier Of Business
Applications Traceable
to Increased Customer
Revenue
Provide on-time, on-
budget, on-
specification for our
enterprise applications
Budget Variance
Schedule Variance
% Requirements
Variance
BPI ≥ 0.95
CPI ≥ 0.97
Function Points
Delivered ≥ 90%
Target
Provide scalable
platform for acquisition
and growth of our
customer base
Cost of Delivery
Impact
Performance Impact
Global Operational
Baseline
Declining Cost per
Customer
SLA Compliance ≥ 0.98
24/7/365 Non-Stop
Operations
What How Measures
Vision
Positively Impact
Financial Performance
Why
Top Down
Making the effect-and-cause connection between Strategy
and Key Performance Indicators is the role of an Balanced
Scorecard automation system
Flow Down from Strategy to KPIs
Making the effect-and-cause connection between Strategy
and Key Performance Indicators is the role of an Balanced
Scorecard automation system

+
WBS is Paramount
 The WBS describes the product and
services needed to produce the products
 The Work Breakdown Structure
development starts with NWS Policy
Directive 70-3, from DOC Scalable
Project Management Methodology,
§7.2.4 in accordance with PMI® Practice
Standard for Work Breakdown Structure
 A starting point for developing the WBS
is MIL-STD-881-C.
 Each Federal Agency may have their
own instance of the 881-C guide.
Without a WBS, we don’t know what is
being delivered by the project.
We don’t know what End Item
Deliverables are related to other items
– parents of the final deliverables.
14

+
The WBS …
 … is a product-oriented family tree composed of hardware, software, services,
data, and facilities. The family tree results from systems engineering efforts during
the acquisition of a defense materiel item.
 … a WBS displays and defines the product, or products, to be developed
and/or produced. It relates the elements of work to be accomplished to each
other and to the end product. In other words, the WBS is an organized method to
breakdown a product into sub-products at lower levels of detail.
 … can be expressed to any level of detail. While the top three levels are the
minimum required for reporting purposes on any program or contract, effective
management of complex programs requires WBS definition at considerably lower
levels.
 This is particularly true of items identified as high-cost, high-risk, or high technical interest.
 Under these circumstances, it is critical to define the product at a lower level of WBS detail.
 In this case, managers should distinguish between WBS definition and WBS reporting.
 The WBS should be defined at the level necessary to identify work progress and enable
effective management, regardless of the WBS level reported to program oversight.
15

+
Integrated Master
Plan (IMP)
 The IMP is a hierarchy of program
events, in which each event is supported
by specific accomplishments, and each
accomplishment is based on satisfying
specific criteria to be considered
complete.
 The IMP consists of three elements
 Program Events
 Significant Accomplishments
 Accomplishment Criteria
The Integrated Master Plan is a
hierarchical description of what Done
looks like in the form of increasing
maturity of the program’s deliverables
and the capabilities they provide
16

+
IMP / IMS Structure
17
IMS
IMP
Describes how program
capabilities will be
delivered and
how these
capabilities will
be recognized
as ready for
delivery
Supplemental Schedules (CAM Notebook)
Work Packages and Tasks
Criteria
Accomplishment
Events
or
Milestones

+
Maturity Process Flow
18

+
The Integrated Master Plan
 Program planning involves developing and maintaining plans for all
program processes, including those required for effective program
office-contractor interaction.
 Once the contract is signed and schedule, costs, and resources from
the contractor are established, the program plan takes into account, at
an appropriate level of detail, the contractor's estimations for the
program.
 The IMP should provide sufficient definition to track the step-by-step
completion of the required accomplishments for each event, and to
demonstrate satisfaction of the completion criteria for each
accomplishment.
19

+
The Integrated Master Plan …
 Provides flexibility in performing detailed program execution planning,
organization, and scheduling within any existing Request for Proposal
(RFP) constraints.
 Serve as the basis for detailed Execution IMS.
 Provides basis of integrated product development and systems
integration approaches
 Serve as the basis for ensuring mutual understanding of Government
expectations and agreement on the program content, program plan,
schedule, and risk.
 Provide detailed integrated execution plan and supporting schedule,
clearly identifying what has to be done and when it must be done.
20

+ The IMP enables Program
Management to…
 Identify and assess actual progress versus the planned progress
 Monitor the program critical path and help develop workarounds to
problem areas
 Assess program maturity
 Assess the status of risk management activities based on the inclusion
of the program risk mitigation activities in the IMP and IMS
 Assess the progress on selected Key Performance Parameters
(KPPs) and Technical Performance Measures (TPMs)
 Provide an objective, quantitative basis for the contractor’s
performance assessment
21

+
IMP for Cloud Deployment
22

+
Integrated Master
Schedule (IMS)
 Packages of Work and their Tasks,
implement the deliverables from the
Work Breakdown Structure.
 These Work Packages should have a
singular outcome matched to a
deliverable or service in the WBS
 The assessment of the maturity of these
outcomes is done in the IMP using the
Accomplishment Criteria that show the
increasing maturity of the Significant
Accomplishments.
 Each Work Package has some measure
of Performance or Technical
Performance Measure for the
deliverable.
The IMS is an integrated, networked
schedule containing all the detailed
discrete work packages and planning
packages (or lower level tasks of
activities) necessary to support the
events, accomplishments, and criteria
of the IMP.
23

+ Vertical and Horizontal Traceability
between IMP and IMS
24
Program Events
Define the maturity
of a Capability at a point in time.
Significant Accomplishments
Represent requirements
that enable Capabilities.
Accomplishment Criteria
Exit Criteria for the Work
Packages that fulfill Requirements.
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
package

+
Managing Technical
and Programmatic
Risk
 Risk Management is how adults manage
projects ‒ Tim Lister
 All risk comes from uncertainty
 The integrated master schedule must be
risk adjusted for these uncertainties
 Specific work must be in the IMS for
reducible uncertainties
 Schedule, cost, and technical margin
must be in the IMS for irreducible
uncertainties
All risk comes from uncertainty.
Uncertainty comes in two forms
Reducible uncertainty (Epistemic)
Irreducible uncertainty (Aleatory)
26

+
All Risk Comes from Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Irreducible
(Aleatory)
Reducible
(Epistemic)
Natural Variability
Ambiguity
Ontological
Uncertainty
Probabilistic Events
Probabilistic
Impacts
Periods of Exposure
Performance–Based Project Management®, Copyright © Glen B. Alleman, 2002 ― 2016
27

Technical Risk Management
Track and Control
Performance Deviations
Deliberate and recommend a
decision alternative
Risk analysis of decision
alternatives, performing
trade studies and ranking
Propose and/or identify
decision alternatives
Formulate objectives
Hierarchy and Technical
Performance Measures
Stakeholder
expectations,
requirements
definition and
management
Design solutions,
technical planning
Design solution,
technical planning,
and decision
analysis
Technical planning
and decision
analysis
Decision analysis,
lessons learned,
knowledge
management
Identify
Analyze
Plan
Track
Control
Decide and
implement
decision
alternatives
Communicate
28

+
Performance
Measurement and
Reporting
 Physical Percent Complete is defined as
tangible evidence of progress to plan.
 Define this Physical Percent Complete
before the work starts in units of
measure meaningful to the decision
makers
 Effectiveness
 Performance
 Key Performance Parameters
Performance measurement is always
based on tangible evidence of
progress to plan.
The passage of time and consumption
of resources is not the basis of
performance measurement.
Physical Percent Complete of some
predefined measure of Effectiveness,
Performance, or Key Parameter is.
30

You Know you're applying the 5 Principals of Project
Success if you …
1
… have a defined Mission, Vision, Capabilities, and
Requirements ‒ by which to create …
2
… the Plan for fulling these capabilities and connected
Requirements and Schedule for producing the needed
outcomes to meet this Plan ‒ and have …
3
… allocated enough Time, Money, and Resources to
increase the probability of the project’s success ‒ and you
can …
4
… know what Risks are in front of you and their retirement or
handling plans ‒ and you can …
5
… confirm progress as Physical Percent Complete for each
planned Deliverables in the Plan “on or before the planned
time and “at or below” the planned cost.

+
Monthly Business Rhythm
 Each participate in the Business Rhythm, the data produced and
consumed, interconnections
32

+
Root Cause Analysis
1. Define the Problem.
2. Determine the Causal Relationships.
3. Provide a Graphical Representation of
Cause and Effect that is not linear
thinking.
4. Provide Evidence for each Cause and
Effect.
5. Determine if each Cause is Sufficient
and Necessary.
6. Identify Effective Solutions
 Finding the cause is needed.
 Preventing the effect is needed.
 But installing an effective solution is
the desired business outcome.
7. Implement And Track the Effective
Solutions.
When the project goes bad.
Root Cause Analysis is the method of
problem solving that identifies the root
causes of failures or problems. A root
cause is the source of a problem and
its resulting symptom, that once
removed, corrects or prevents an
undesirable outcome from recurring.
33

+
The Notion of Root Cause Analysis
Symptom: The result or outcome of the problem.
An observation
 We have late additions to the release that break the software
 We have “core” defects that should been caught long before
production release
 We make changes to software, stored procedures, or the
database only to discover it was a mistake.
 We make promises to the customer before assessing the
impact on our resources or the technical difficulty
Problem:
 Test coverage insufficient the detect latent bugs in software
 We commit before understanding the consequences
Root Cause:
 No software structure to determine test coverage or change
impacts on baseline.
 No detailed understanding of our capacity for work and
productivity of our technical staff
34

+
 Causes are never part of a Linear Chain found in standard Fishbone
diagram or narrative approach.
 Look for causes to create the effect. Two causes are needed for each
Effect.
 Conditions – may exist prior to the Effect. Or conditions may be in motion or
active during the Effect. Conditions are the causes often ignored or beyond our
knowledge.
 Actions – momentary causes that bring conditions together to cause an effect.
Actions are causes most easily recognized.
 Connect all causes (Actions and Conditions) with a Caused By phrase to
either an action or a condition.
 Support each Cause with evidence or an answered question.
For each Primary Effect we need ask why that Effect
occurred.
Principles of the Cause and Effect
35

+ Cause and Effect are Part of a
Continuum of Causes
 Causes are never linear.
 Causes branch into at
least two other causes,
each time we ask why of
an effect and if we ask
why of each of those
causes we find an
expanding set of causes
like those to the right.
36

+ Four Root Causes for Program Cost
and Schedule Overruns
37
Unrealistic Performance Expectations,
missing Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)
and Measures of Performance (MOP).
Unrealistic Cost and Schedule estimates
based on inadequate risk adjusted growth
models.
Inadequate assessment of risk and
unmitigated exposure to these risks without
proper handling plans.
Unanticipated technical issues without
alternative plans and solutions to maintain
effectiveness.
Unanticipated
Cost and
Schedule
Growth
TheLensofPerformance
Assessment “Borrowed” with permission from Mr. Gary Bliss,
Director, Performance Assessment and Root
Cause Analysis (PARCA), Office of Assistant
Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,
Technology and Logistics.

Performance–Based Project Management®, Copyright © Glen B. Alleman, 2002 ― 2018 38
Root Causes Have Root Causes
It’s not a matter of asking 5 Whys
You must keep asking until you reach the end of the chain or action and condition

+
Resources (1)
 MIL-STD-881-C defines how to build a Work Breakdown Structure ‒
http://quicksearch.dla.mil/Transient/38A8B775A4BF4CEF8871CEF7E
EA34156.pdf
 Guestimate ‒ a spread sheet for making estimating
https://www.getguesstimate.com/
 Reality Charting, using the Apollo Method,
http://www.apollorootcause.com/media/32309/realitycharting_-
_seven_steps_to_effective_problem-solving_and_strategie....pdf
 XMIND – low cost Mind Mapping Tool ‒ www.xmind.com
39

+
Resources (2)
 “Guide to Capabilities Based Planning: The Technical Cooperation
Program Joint Systems and Analysis Group Technical Panel 3,”
www.acq.osd.mil/ttcp/reference/docs/JSA-TP-3-CBP-Paper-Final.doc
 “Naval Analytical Capabilities: Improving Capabilities-Based Planning,”
Committee on Naval Analytical Capabilities and Improving
Capabilities-Based Planning,” Naval Studies Board, Division on
Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council,
https://www.nap.edu/download/11455
 RiskyProject ‒ Monte Carlo Simulation tool starting with a Risk
Register and modeling tools for the Reducible and Irreducible risks ‒
www.riskyproject.com
40

+
Resources (2)
 Risk Management Toolkit, Mitre Systems Engineering Process Office,
http://www2.mitre.org/work/sepo/toolkits/risk/index.html
 Risk Matrix tool is free Excel tool downloaded from here ‒
http://www2.mitre.org/work/sepo/toolkits/risk/ToolsTechniques/RiskMatrix.ht
ml
 Risk Radar tool is a Access Database to downloaded from here ‒
http://www2.mitre.org/work/sepo/toolkits/risk/ToolsTechniques/RiskRadar.ht
ml
 Software Engineering Institute Continuous Risk Management,
http://www.sei.cmu.edu/risk/
 “What’s Wrong With Risk Matrices,” Tony Cox,
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Louis_Cox/publication/5432360_
What's_Wrong_with_Risk_Matrices/links/55582a5408ae980ca60e2e8
e.pdf
41

+
Resources (3)
 Design Structure Matrix
 http://www.dsmweb.org/
 Design Structure Matrix Methods and Applications
https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/design-structure-matrix-methods-and-
applications
 International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association,
http://www.iceaaonline.com/
 College of Performance Management, www.mycpm.org
 “Opportunity Management: Be Careful What You Ask For,” Edmund
Conrow, https://acc.dau.mil/adl/en-
US/193752/attachment/32944/conr_ma08_1.pdf
42

+
Resources (4)
 Society for Effective Lessons Learned Sharing (SELLS),
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/lessons/sells/llsite.pdf
 Software Engineering Institute, Continuous Risk Management,
https://resources.sei.cmu.edu/library/asset-view.cfm?assetid=30856
 Risk Informed Decision Making, NASA/SP-2010-576,
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20100021361.pd
f
 “An Implementation of the Lurie-Goldberg Algorithm Scheduling Risk
Analysis,” http://www.slideserve.com/tahir/an-implementation-of-the-
lurie-goldberg-algorithm-in-schedule-risk-analysis
43

+
Resources (5)
 ACQuipedia, https://dap.dau.mil/acquipedia/Pages/Default.aspx
 Defense Acquisition University tools and resources,
https://www.dau.mil/tools#All|All||recent
 Mitre Systems Engineering Handbook,
http://www.mitre.org/sites/default/files/publications/se-guide-book-
interactive.pdf
 Implementing the Program Management Improvement and
Accountability Act of 2015, https://www.pmi.org/-
/media/pmi/documents/public/pdf/business-solutions/program-
management-accountability-act.pdf
 Making the Impossible Possible: Leading Extraordinary Performance ‒
The Rocky Flats Story, Kim Cameron and Marc Lavine, Berrett-
Koehler, 2006.
44

+
Resources (6)
 Beyond Bullet Points, Cliff Atkinson, Microsoft Press, 2011.
 Effective Risk Management: Some Keys to Success, Edmund Conrow,
AIAA Press, 2003.
 Integrated Master Plan and Integrated Master Schedule Preparation
and Use Guide,
https://www.acq.osd.mil/se/docs/IMP_IMS_Guide_v9.pdf
 Defense Agile Acquisition Guide: Tailoring DoD IT Acquisition Program
Structures and Processes to Rapidly Deliver Capabilities,
https://www.mitre.org/publications/technical-papers/defense-agile-
acquisition-guide-tailoring-dod-it-acquisition-program
45

+
Resources (7)
 How to Lie with Statistics, Darrell Huff, W. W. Norton, 1993. Orginal
published 1953
 “Society for Effective Lessons Learned Sharing (SELLS),”
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/lessons/sells/llsite.pdf
 NASA’s Management of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle
Program, https://oig.nasa.gov/audits/reports/FY16/IG-16-029.pdf
 Integrated Master and Integrated Master Schedule Preparation and
Use Guide, https://www.acq.osd.mil/se/docs/IMP_IMS_Guide_v9.pdf
46

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