Immutable principles of project management

Deliverables Based Planning Handbook for A&D, Copyright © 2008, 2009, Glen B. Alleman
Project
Disappointment
Starts When We
Fail To Recognize
The 5 Immutable
Principles Of
Project Success

1. Where Are We Going?
2. How Do We Get
There?
3. Do We Have Enough
Time, Resources, And
Money To Get There?
4. What Impediments Will
We Encounter Along
The Way?
5. How Do We Know We
Are Making Progress?
Immutable Principles of Project Success
2/36Glen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2012

Q1. Where Are We Going?
Eliciting Requirements Is Highly Domain Dependent
“Design and integrate 18 major weapon systems and platforms
simultaneously within strict size and weight limitations, while
synchronizing the development, demonstration, and production of
as many as 157 complementary systems with the Future Combat
System content and schedule.” (This is an actual requirement)
“Implement the 8 stories for our new
warehouse inventory tracking system
using the existing web site platform as
a starting point.”

Three steps to success
 Plan – a strategy for the successful
completion of the project.
 Schedule – the steps needed to
fulfill the Plan.
 Execution – the physical
performance of the steps needed
to deliver the results defined in the
Plan.

Scheduling
Always comes
after Planning
 What are the
individual, dependent
and, sequential steps
needed to deliver
these capabilities?
 The schedule has
durations,
dependencies, timing,
dates, resources and
other things related
with the Plan.
 The idea that these
steps “emerge” is
fanciful in many
situations. 5/36Glen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2012

Q2. How Do We Get There?
Some problems
respond to lightweight
approaches, like
Scrum, DSDM, Crystal,
and XP as product
development methods.
Others require more
complex approaches,
like a System of
Systems (SoS) spiral
development processes.
In all cases a disciplined
approach increases the
probability of success –
no matter the
complexity of the
problem or the solution
This approach works
well when we don’t
know what “done”
looks like with enough
clarity
So
Does
This!

Q3: Do We Have Everything We Need?

Q3. Do We Have Enough Time, Money,
And Resources To Get There?
A Common Problem A Simple Solution
We have undue optimism
Use documented procedures – no matter the
method – for estimating and planning using
historical data.
By nature we attempt to
avoid risk and uncertainty
Understand and prioritize risks for each critical
component empowers management and staff.
Use this knowledge to control your optimism.
We rely too much on intuitive
judgment
Simple statistical models are more often correct
than the human judgment.
Have the number to back up your intuition.
The Rational Planning of (Software) Projects, Mark C. Paulk, Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
15213–3890
In the resource management business,
optimism is always the source of trouble

Q4: What Are the Impediments to Getting There?

1. Hope is not a strategy
2. No single point estimate of cost or schedule can be correct
3. Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance are inseparable
4. Risk management requires adherence to a well defined process
5. Communication is the Number One success factor
Q4. Five Fundamental Principles of Risk
Management

Q5:
How Do We Know We Are
Making Progress to Plan?

12/36
What are the
Primary Measures
of Progress to Plan
for this Project?
Will we recognize Done?
When will we be Done?
What will it cost to be
Done?
What does Done look
like for the customer?
How can we recognize
Done when it arrives?
How can we be sure we
can get to from here to
Done?
What are theGlen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2012

Technical Performance Measures …
 Tell us how well a system is
achieving the planned performance
requirements at the planned time, for
the planned cost.
 Use actual or predicted values from:
– Engineering measurements
– Tests
– Experiments
– Prototypes
 For Example:
– Response time
– Range
– Power
– Weight

Q5. How Do We Know If We Are Making
The Progress We Planned To Make?
The only credible measure of progress is the Physical
Percent Complete for the planned deliverables.
A
Physical Percent Complete means tangible evidence of
the outcomes that were planned – measured at the time
they were planned to be delivered.
B
This is the basis for full Earned Value Management with
physical percent complete.
This is also a natural a fit with the agile approaches to
software development.
C
All successful methods measure the evidentiary
outcomes in units meaningful to the stakeholders.
These units are usually “money” and “time.”
D
14/36

When we think of
trade offs between
Cost, Schedule,
and
Technical
Performance it is
actually a Ponzi
Scheme
When we’re on baseline,
the algebraic relationship
between C,S,P, means
when there is a change
everyone looses
Charles Ponzi,
Born March 3, 1882, Italy.
Died Jan 18, 1949, Brazil.
Served 5 years federal prison,
9 year state prison,
deported to Italy.
C S
P

Physical Percent Complete
 Measuring physical percent complete is
the basis of every successful project
management method.
 It answers the question of what “done”
look like in units of measure meaningful
to the decision makers.
 It answers questions like:
– What does done look like for today, this
week, this month, at the end of the project?
– What does done look like for entry/exit into
the upcoming technical review?
– What does done look like for quality control?
– What does done look like for the customer?
No stretching the
truth allowed once
we measure
Technical
Performance with
tangible evidence.

You know you’re a 5 Principles practitioner if you …
Have a defined Mission, Vision, Capabilities, and
Requirements; by which to create …1
the Plan for fulfilling these capabilities and connected
Requirements and Schedule for producing the
needed outcomes to meet this Plan; and have …
2
allocated enough Time, Money, and Resources to
increase the probability of our project’s success; by …3
knowing what Risks are in front of your and their
retirement or handling plans; and you can …4
measure progress as Physical Percent Complete for
each planned Deliverable in our Plan “on or before”
the planned time and “at or below” the planned cost.
5

Let’s put these
principles to workGlen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2012

How do you stay
on schedule, on
budget, and also
meet the
technical
performance
requirements?
London Olympics Basketball
Arena. Average overruns for 17
previous games is 179%
Glen B. Alleman, Copyright © 2012

16 Program Management Processes
21
Program Enablers
Program Process
Capabilities
Business Enablers
Chapter0
Performance Based Management(sm), Copyright ® Glen B. Alleman, 2012 Booz Allen Hamilton PM framework

The 4+1 Questions
Every Project Must
Answer to be
Successful
Capabilities Requirements Plans Execution
2. What technical and operational requirements are
needed to deliver these capabilities?
1. What capabilities are needed to fulfill the Concept of Operations†,
the Mission and Vision, or the Business System Requirements?
3. What schedule delivers the product or
services on time to meet the requirements?
4. What periodic measures of
physical percent complete
assure progress to plan?
What impediments to success, their mitigations, retirement plans,
or “buy downs are in place to increase the probability of success?”
+ Continuous Risk Management
† A Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes the characteristics of a system from the point of view of an individual who will use
that system. It is used to communicate the quantitative and qualitative system characteristics to all stakeholders.





Chapter 022 Performance Based Management(sm), Copyright ® Glen B. Alleman, 2012

What Should We Do?
Where Are We Now?
Identifying Needed System Capabilities
Abstracted from:
“Capabilities‒Based Planning – How It Is
Intended To Work And Challenges To Its
Successful Implementation,” Col. Stephen K.
Walker, United States Army, U. S. Army War
College, March 2005
Identifying Needed System Capabilities
23
Chapter0
Performance Based Management(sm), Copyright ® Glen B. Alleman, 2012

Identifying Requirements†
†Systems Requirements Practices, Jeffery O. Grady, McGraw Hill, 1993
24
Chapter0

Establishing the Three Elements of
the Performance Measurement
Baseline
Cost Baseline
Schedule Baseline
Technical Baseline
Determine
Scope and
Approach
Develop
Technical
Logic
Develop
Technical
Baseline
Develop
WBS
Define
Activities
Estimate
Time
Durations
Sequence
Activities
Finalize
Schedule
Identify
Apportioned
Milestones
Determine
Resource
Requireme
nt
Prepare
Cost
Estimate
Resource
Load
Schedule
Finalize
Apportioned
Milestones
Determine
Funding
Constraint
s
Approve
PMB
25
Chapter0
Perform
Functional
Analysis

Program Events
Define the availability
of a Capability at a point in
time.
Accomplishments
Represent requirements
that enable Capabilities.
Criteria
Represent Work Packages
that deliver the Requirements.
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
Package
Work
package
 Performance Based Management(sm) describes of the increasing maturing of a product or
service through Events or Milestones, Accomplishments, Criteria, and Work Packages.
 Each Event or Milestone represents the availability of one or more capabilities.
 The presence of these capabilities is measured by the Accomplishments and their Criteria.
 Accomplishments are the pre–conditions for the maturity assessment of the product or
service at each Event or Milestone.
 This hierarchy decomposes the System Capabilities into Requirements, Work Packages, and
the activities the produce the deliverables. This hierarchy also describes increasing
program maturity resulting from the activities contained in the Work Packages.
 Performance of the work activities, Work Packages, Criteria, Accomplishments, and Events
or Milestones is measured in units of “physical percent complete” by connecting Earned
Value with Technical Performance Measures.
The structure of a
Deliverables Based Plan
Chapter IChapter I26 Performance Based Management(sm), Copyright ® Glen B. Alleman, 2012

Execute the Performance
Measurement Baseline (PMB)
27
Chapter0

Analyze
Plan
Track
Control
Identify Risks, Issues, and
Concerns
Evaluate, classify, and
prioritize risks
Decide what should be done
about each risk
Monitor risk metrics and
verify/validate mitigations
Make risk decisions
Subproject and partner
data/constraints, hazard
analysis, FMEA, FTA, etc.
Risk data: test data,
expert opinion, hazard
analysis, FMEA, FTA,
lessons learned,
technical analysis
Resources
Replan Mitigation
Program/project data
(metrics information)
Statement of Risk
Risk classification, Likelihood
Consequence, Timeframe
Risk prioritization
Research, Watch (tracking
requirements)
Acceptance Rationale,
Mitigation Plans
Risk status reports on:
Risks
Risk Mitigation Plans
Close or Accept Risks
Invoke contingency plans
Continue to track
Perform Continuous Risk
Management
28
Chapter0

11 Critical Practices Needed to
Implement the 5 Immutable Principles
29
 Define the Work
Breakdown
Structure(WBS).
 Indentify the
Organizational
Breakdown Structure
(OBS).
 Integrate the WBS and
OBS.
Organization
 Schedule the work.
 Identify the Products and
Milestones.
 Set the time phased
budget.
Planning and Budgeting
 Record direct costs.
Accounting
 Determine variances.
 Sum Data and variances.
 Manage action plans.
Performance Analysis
 Incorporate Changes.
Revision Management
Chapter0

Performance Based Management(sm) Puts
You On the Road to Success …
Where are we going?
How do we get there?
Are there enough resources?
What are impediments to progress?
How do we measure progress?

5 Practices Needed the Implement the
5 Immutable Principles
Identify Capabilities with
measurement units meaningful to
the customer
Identify Technical and Operational
Requirements to deliver
capabilities
Establish risk adjusted Technical,
Cost, and Schedule Baseline(s)
Execute PMB with measurement
units meaningful to the decision
makers
Apply Continuous Risk
Management

Call to Action
 Measure tangible
evidence of progress to
plan as “Physical Percent
Complete.”
 Define what “done” looks
like in fine grained
increments before
starting the work.
 Define the planning
horizon inside your ability
to control the future.
 Stay on schedule, late
starts mean late finishes.
 Build a team who holds

33
How do you actually put these
principles and practices to work for
success?
As a Project Manager, You
have to be

Did We Learn Anything Useful?
No matter our tolerance for risk, or the
methods we use – the 5 immutable
principles are always in place.

Identify
Needed
Capabilities
Indentify
Baseline
Requirements
Establish
Performance
Measurement
Baseline
Execute
Performance
Measurement
Baseline
Define Capabilities
Define ConOps
Assess Needs, Cost,
and Risk
Define Balanced and
Feasible Alternatives
Fact Finding
Gather And Classify
Evaluate And
Rationalize
Prioritize
Integrate And
Validate
Decompose Scope
Assign Accountability
Arrange Work
Develop BCWS
Assign Performance
Perform Work
Accumulate
Performance
Measures
Analyze
Performance
Take Corrective
Action
Continuous Risk Management (CRM)
Define the
Measurable
Capabilities of Project
Outcomes
Assure All
Requirements Are
Provided In Support of
Capabilities
Define Measures of
Performance and
Effectiveness
Ensure Cost,
Schedule, and
Technical
Performance
Compliance
Chapter0
37
Increasing the Maturity of Project Work
Processes and Deliverables

Performance Based Management(sm)
Processes
ChapterI
38

Capabilities
Capabilities Based Planning starts with business
scenarios, the tasks needed to implement the scenarios,
and testable capability outcomes
Scenarios
The business units
operational needs in
scenario terms
Merge a General
Ledger from a 3rd party
database through a
data conversation
process for all recently
acquired companies
Work Tasks
The individual work
processes needed to
fulfill the scenarios
1. Define the data to
be acquired from
the new firm
2. Verify data
conversation can
take place
3. Verify that business
operations can
continue
Capabilities
The planned capability
of the Business Units at
each level of maturity
“Acquire a $100M
business unit in 90 days
or less”
“Process 100% AP
invoices from tier 1
vendors saving $9M
annually”
Business Process
Improvement
Strategy ManagementProject Management
39

Capabilities
Top Level Steps in Identifying
Capabilities
40

Capabilities
“End to end” delivery of business solutions rests on the
keystone of Capabilities Based Planning, buttressed by a
Balanced Scorecard and Portfolio Management
 Business Mission and Vision drives
needed capabilities.
 Balanced Scorecard defines the
testable strategies for delivering this
business value.
 Capabilities Based Planning defines
business outcomes.
 Portfolio Management enables
tradeoff decisions.
 Event based tasks define increasing
maturity of each capability.
“Done”“Demand”
41

Capabilities
The measure of an application effect’s is made visible at
each maturity assessment event.
 Derive business effects from capabilities
 Link capabilities to effects
 Explicitly identify cross links and
interdependencies between capabilities
 Highlight “enabler” capabilities
Sub–
Capability
Capability
Business
Effect
Business
Effect
CapabilityCapability
Sub–
Capability
Sub–
Capability
Sub–
Capability
Sub–
Capability
 Functional decomposition of capabilities
 Capabilities must be Collectively Exhaustive
and Mutually Exclusive
 Provide a “menu” from which operations can
choose required capabilities
Capability 1 Capability 2
Sub–
Capability
Sub–
Capability
Sub–
Capability
Sub–Sub–
Capability
Sub–Sub–
Capability
Sub–Sub–
Capability
Sub–Sub–
Capability
Sub–Sub–
Capability
Sub–Sub–
Capability
42

Capabilities
A “mini–Kaizen,” can be used to gather Assessment Points
(Events) along with the Significant Accomplishments and
Accomplishment Criteria
43

Capabilities
A mini–Kaizen transfers “Sticky’s” to a Mind Map, then to a
Master Schedule, then to a Hanging PERT – producing a “Wall
of Truth” for the project
Working session Sticky’s
A Mind Map™ of the Sticky’s
MS Project™ export of
the Mind Map
PERT Chart Expert™ on the Wall of Truth
44

Program Accomplishment Flow
ChapterX
45

The flow of deliverables describes the
increasing value of the project
Pilot
Data
Enrollment
Integrators
Quality Monitor
Internal
Router
Data Store Lookup
Data Warehouse
Data Marts
Data Marts
Portals and others
Billing
Demo conversion process, member reconciliation
Shared group matrix reports and interfaces
Shared member crosswalk and members to ERP
Integrators in ERP converted to inventory
Status and trigger conversions
Data in Marts for
ERP
Mtrl Mstr cvrtd from
legacy
External Interfaces Extrl Vendors
cvrtd
Finance Loss TBD
Resale's Vendors
from legacy
Emulations Material
converted
end–to–end

The flow of deliverables generates
business value or mission fulfillment
Pilot
Data
Enrollment
Integrators
Quality Monitor
Internal
Router
Data Store Lookup
Data Warehouse
Data Marts
Data Marts
Portals and others
Billing
Demo conversion process, member reconciliation
Shared group matrix reports and interfaces
Shared member crosswalk and members to ERP
Integrators in ERP converted to inventory
Data in Marts
for ERP
complete
Mtrl Mstr cvrtd from
legacy
External Interfaces Extrl Vendors
cvrtd
Finance Loss TBD
Resale's Vendors
from legacy
Emulations Material
converted
end–to–end
Milestone that
produces
business value
Significant Accomplishment
needed for the entry criteria to
the Event or Milestone
Accomplishment Criteria is the exit criteria for
the Work Package and its Tasks that produce
the outcomes defined in the Significant
Accomplishment
Status and trigger conversions

The perfect schedule
must …
 Show what Done
looks like through
tangible evidence of
success.
 Show the order of
the work needed to
get to Done at each
stage.
 Define the needed
resources to reach
Done.
 Identify risks to
Done and their
handling.
 Measure physical progress toward Done in units
meaningful to the decision makers.
48/38Performance Based Management(sm), Copyright ® Glen B. Alleman, 2012

The REAL Problem For Every Schedule Is …
The Activities And Their Numbers Are Arranged In A
Probabilistic Network With Interdependent Connections
Between Work Elements
49/38

Business Need
Process Invoices for Top
Tier Suppliers
1st Level
Electronic Invoice
Submittal
1st Level
Routing to Payables
Department
2nd Level
Payables Account
Verification
2nd Level
Payment Scheduling
2nd Level
Material receipt
verification
2nd Level
“On hand” balance
Updates
Deliverables defined in WP

1. Build the WBS
2. Define Project Events
3. Define Significant
Accomplishments
need for DONE
4. Define Success Criteria
for the Outcomes
5. Develop the Work
Packages for Outcomes
6. Identify
Interdependencies
between Work Packages
7. Assemble Integrated
Master Schedule
8. Iteratively and Incrementally tune the schedule in
the presence of risk retirement, mitigation activities,
and past performance, and emerging requirements.
Boyd
developed the concept to explain how to direct one's energies to defeat an adversary and survive. 51/38

PBM Execution Framework
Program ExecutionPMB for IBRProposal SubmittalDRFP & RFP
Performance Measurement Baseline
Tasks (T)
BOE
% Complete
Statement of Work
Program Deliverables
IMP
Accomplishments (A)
Criteria (C)
EVMS
Events (E)
Budget Spreads by CA & WPCAIV
Capabilities Based Requirements
X BCWS =
Probabilistic Risk Analysis
=
Time keeping and ODC =
Technical Performance Measure
BCWP
ACWP
Cost & Schedule Risk Model
BCWS
D ecreasing techni cal and programmatic ri sk usi ng R i sk Management Methods
IMS
Physical % Complete
Continuity and consistency from DRFP through Program Execution
ChapterX
52

Variance
Planned Value
Planned Profile
Current Estimate
Milestones
Threshold
Upper Limit
Lower Limit
MeanToBetweenFailure
Time = Program Maturity
Achieved to Date
TPM

Connecting the Dots with the
Performance Measurement Baseline
54
Risk
SOW
Cost
WBS
IMP/IMS
TPM
PMB
Named
Deliverables
defined in the WBS
BCWS at the Work
Package, rolled to the
Control Account
TPMs attached to each
critical deliverables in the
WBS and identified in
each Work Package in the
IMS, used to assess
maturity in the IMP
The Products and
Processes that produce
them in a “well structured”
decomposition in the WBS
IMS contains all
the Work
Packages, BCWS,
Risk mitigation
plans, and rolls to
the Integrated
Master Plan to
measure
increasing maturity
Technical and Programmatic
Risks Connected to the WBS
and IMS
ChapterX

55
Principles Connected to Practices
5 Immutable
Principles
5 Practices of Program Success
Capabilities
Requirement
s
Performance
Measuremen
t Baseline
PMB
Execution
Continuous
Risk
Management
Where are
we going?
ConOps,
SOO, SOW
Deliverables
Based
Planning
Incremental
Maturity
Assessment
Physical
Percent
Complete
Risk
Identification
How are we
going to get
there? Integrated
Master Plan
Work
Breakdown
Structure Integrated
Master
Schedule
Iterative and
Incremental
Delivery
Risk
Analysis
What do we
need along
the way?
Resource
Management
Plan
Future
Performance
Forecasting
Risk
Planning
What
impediments
will we
encounter?
4 Levels of
Uncertainty
Assessment
Risks
assigned to
deliverables
Risk
adjusted
cost and
schedule
Risk
adjusted
Earned
Value
Management
Risk
Tracking
How do we
measure
Measures of
Effectivenes
Measures of
Technical
Performance
Earned
Value
Risk

Glen B. Alleman
Niwot Ridge, LLC
4347 Pebble Beach Drive
Niwot, Colorado 80503
303.241.9633
glen.alleman@niwotridge.com
Performance Based Management(sm)
Integrated Master Plan
Integrated Master Schedule
Earned Value Management Systems
Risk Management
Proposal Support Services

Immutable principles of project management

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