The EV-CR contains data at the WBS level of program perform. Using R and built in functions, the contents of IPMR Box a,b,c can be produced using this data and compared to the contents of 6 a,b,c provided in the current IPMR submittal.

1. +
Increasing Confidence in Box 6a,b,c of
IPMR Format 1, Using Existing EV-CR Data and built
in tools from
The EV-CR contains data at the WBS level of program perform. Using R and built in functions, the
contents of IPMR Box a,b,c can be produced using this data and compared to the contents of 6 a,b,c
provided in the current IPMR submittal.

2. +The contents of Box 6a,b,c are
management opinion of EAC
Data in the EV-CR is available to calculate these value in from
past performance to improve confidence and credibility
2

3. +The EV-CR Contains Time Series
Data by WBS for the Program
n Mining this data is as simple as pointing at the
EV-CR database
n Use ARIMA function built in
n Make adjustments for phase, correlations, and other
dependencies built in to the ARIMA tuning processes
n Other time series forecasting tools built in
3
n Holt Winters
n Univariate and multivariate
models
n Structural models
n Stochastic volatility models
n Frequency analysis
n Decomposition and
Filtering
n Dynamic regression
n Non-Linear Time Series
n Stationarity, Unit Roots, and
Cointegration
http://cran.r-project.org/web/views/TimeSeries.html

4. +How to Improve Box 6a,b,c
n Using the time series data in the EV-CR
n Normalize the data to assure it is clean, consistent, and ready
for analysis
n Install – which is free
n Extract Format 1 data into compatible data structure
n Apply Time Series (ts) function to the monthly CPI and SPI
data
n Extract Most Likely, 20% and 80% values from the time series
for each reporting month
n Produce the confidence intervals on all three by month as a
new time series
n Use ARIMA to forecast future values of CPI, SPI, EAC (20%,
ML, 80%)
n Compare them to the EAC values provided by Contractor
n Ask are they close?
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5. +It is as simple as this …
5

6. 6