The GBTA Foundation, the education and research arm of the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), commissioned Rockport Analytics, LLC to build the first-ever semiannual business travel outlook for Brazil. Sponsored by Visa, the purpose is to provide corporate travel professionals and the broader business community insight into both short- and long-term trends in domestic and international outbound business travel activity. The full report is available for purchase for non-members and at no cost for GBTA members. To learn more about the Global Business Travel Association please visit www.gbta.org.

1. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Brazil
Prospects for Domestic & International Outbound Business Travel 2013-2014
2013 H1
Our near-term Outlook for Brazilian business travel has been
slightly upgraded from our expectation in 2012H2. The
improvement is being driven by better prospects for domestic business
travel over 2013 and into 2014. We expect total Brazilian BTS to
grow 14.3% in 2013 and another 16.1% in 2014.

2. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Brazil 2013 H1
Page 10© February 2013 GBTA and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Members may copy this publication in its entirety
for internal company use.
The GBTA Foundation estimates that Brazil’s business travel industry
currently ranks 8th in the world, up one spot in the rankings from 2011.
We expect Brazil to continue to climb the rankings as a major business
travel market, surpassing both France and Italy over the next few years.
Brazilian international outbound business travel (IOB) grew
significantly faster than domestic travel spend through 2010 but has
slowed its pace in 2011 and 2012. Rapid growth in export volume
drove this trend over the last 10 or 15 years, but the slowdown in the
global economy, particularly in some of Brazil’s major trading partners –
China, the U.S. and Europe – have led to a softening of IOB volume and
spend expansion.
Domestic business travel has also grown aggressively over the last
decade as well, albeit not as quickly as IOB. Domestic business travel
has expanded 8.3% per year, on average, over the last 12 years.
A major impact on the near term future of domestic business travel in
Brazil lies in whether the country’s infrastructure can keep pace with
economic growth, a feat that has yet to be accomplished. The Brazilian
government, however, is taking strides to make the necessary improvement
by selling billions of dollars in assets to private investors through long-term
concession deals that would give the winning bidder the right to operate
roads, rails and ports.
Business Travel Spending Drivers & Productivity4
Forecasting domestic and IOB business travel spending requires that we find the strongest and most reliable
correlations with Brazilian economic and market indicators. The indicators are chosen based upon both statistical
testing and economic fundamentals. In the case of Brazilian domestic business travel spending, a strong correlation
was found between Brazilian job growth and travel spending. Expanding employment is indicative of rising business
confidence, improving top line performance, and increasing traveler populations. Other economic drivers, such as
retail sales, business confidence, investment spending, and GDP, also demonstrate strong correlations with domestic
business travel spending.
In the case of IOB spending, we found strong statistical relationships with merchandise trade, exchange rates, the
GDP of principal trading partners, oil prices, the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) and business confidence.
Outbound travel is clearly driven by Brazilian trade performance, both on the export and import side of the ledger.
Capital flows, notably FDI, is also a strong driver of IOB travel spend.
Forecasting business travel activity must also take into account underlying secular trends. One of the most critical is
travel productivity. Like other input materials and labor, travel’s productivity rises over time. That is, over time less
travel spending is required to support each additional sale. In other words, businesses have been successful in
extracting more and more value from each business trip. Brazilian business travel productivity has been growing
by about 2.8% per year since 20005. This means that as Brazil’s output expands, slightly less business travel
spending is required (per Real) to support sales, operations, education/training, customer support, and other trip
purposes.
4 For more information see GBTA BTI Outlook Report –Brazil 2012H2.
5 Global Business Travel Spending Outlook 2012‐2016, GBTA Foundation & Visa, Inc., July 2012
Country
2012 Total
Business Travel
Spending ($USD)
1 U.S. $256.5
2 China $202.1
3 Japan $66.2
4
Germany $50.3
5 U.K. $40.5
6 France $36.3
7 Italy $33.6
8 Brazil $31.1
9 S. Korea $31.1
10 Canada $22.5

3. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Brazil 2013 H1
Page 12© February 2013 GBTA and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Members may copy this publication in its entirety
for internal company use.
Domestic travel spending growth in Brazil
was cut in half in 2012, falling from
20.5% to 9.4%, but is set to pick up the
pace again in 2013 with projected growth
of 12.9%. We expect it to continue to grow
in the double-digits in 2014, with more
robust growth coming early in the year.
An excellent indicator of IOB business
travel prospects is found in premium class
air passenger counts and revenue
passenger kilometers. According to
previous research conducted by the GBTA
Foundation and Boeing, a significant portion
of premium passengers are business
travelers6. The adjacent charts show the top
IOB premium travel markets from Brazil by
both Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs)
and total passengers. In terms of passengers,
the U.S. is the top outbound premium travel
market followed by Argentina. In passenger
kilometers flown, however, The European countries of France, Italy, the UK and Germany are significant IOB
destinations and leapfrog Argentina in the rankings. The top 10 IOB markets comprise nearly 70% of total
premium travel from Brazil.
Brazilian IOB spending growth recovered somewhat in 2012 but is still down significantly from the high growth years
of 2010 and 2011. We expect 2013 to bring a robust recovery to Brazilian IOB as Europe recovers and China
regains strength. After 9% growth in 2011, IOB spending is on target to expand 20.2% this year and another
36% in 2014, a return to 2010 growth rates.
Brazilian Business Travel Spending Forecast Summary
6 Consumer Choice in Premium Air Travel: Traveler Profiles & Motivations, GBTA Foundation, July 2011
BTS 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f
In millions of current USD
Brazil Domestic $18,369.0 $22,136.0 $24,222.6 $27,339.6 $30,326.9
% change 14.4% 20.5% 9.4% 12.9% 10.9%
Brazil IOB $ 5,124.8 $5,417.3 $5,935.8 $7,134.8 $9,700.5
% change 36.3% 5.7% 9.6% 20.2% 36.0%
Total $ 23,493.8 $27,553.4 $30,158.5 $34,474.4 $40,027.4
% change 18.6% 17.3% 9.5% 14.3% 16.1%