Business travel spending is expected to see a robust year in 2014 fueled by steady corporate profits, increases in business investment and an improving U.S. economy. However, the ongoing government shutdown and potential default could derail progress and is already impacting business travel sentiment. The full report is available for purchase for non-members and at no cost for GBTA members. To learn more about the Global Business Travel Association please visit www.gbta.org.

1. 2013 Q1
2013 Q3
GBTA BTI™ Outlook – United States
Prospects for Domestic & International Outbound Business Travel 2013-2014
2012 Q2

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GBTA BTI™ OUTLOOK – UNITED STATES
2013 Q3
© October 2013 GBTA and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Members may copy this publication in its entirety for
internal company use.
GBTA BTI™ Outlook –United States 2013 Q3
PROSPECTS FOR DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL OUTBOUND
BUSINESS TRAVEL 2013-2014
Executive Summary
 Our 2013 Q3 outlook for US business travel has been slightly downgraded from last quarter. In the
second quarter of 2013, 66.9 million person-trips were generated in the US and $112.7 billion was spent on
business travel activity. This represents an annual decline of -1.3% in volume and growth of 1.5% in
spending. In total, we expect business travel volume to fall -0.6% in 2013 to 451.7 million person-trips;
spending will pick up 2.9% growing to $269.5 billion USD.
 Signs of improving growth are developing across many segments of the U.S. economy… with the
notable exception of all levels of government. The private sector will continue to drive moderate gains
through 2014 through sustained consumer spending, more robust business investment, and rising housing
activity. Meanwhile, exports will take a backseat and the government sectors will provide a distinct
headwind. After registering essentially flat in 2012Q4, GDP has slowly gathered momentum. The most
recent release (2013Q2) reported growth at 2.5%.
 Expectations for renewed business investment spending come from the confluence of a number of
strengthening leading indicators. First, corporate profits and cash flow remain strong. Secondly,
management sentiment has brightened considerably in the past few months. Thirdly, postponed capital
purchases have created some degree of pent-up demand. Finally, modest-yet-sustained top-line revenue
growth requires new and replacement equipment to maintain production, productivity, and competitive
advantage. Importantly, these same conditions also suggest improved business travel activity
ahead.
 Housing activity is also a tide that is lifting many economic boats. Improved housing sales in the face
of constrained inventories has pushed up prices (in many markets at double-digit rates), sparked increased
household durables sales, and boosted the construction sector. Very few segments of the economy provide
the kind of economic catalyst for growth as does housing. Given its direct and indirect positive effects,
continued housing market improvement is paramount to a more robust U.S. economy for the
remainder of this year and beyond.
 Consumer spending is yet another bright spot in the current economic landscape. Moderate job
growth and (very) slowly rising incomes have helped to improve consumer confidence and spur personal
consumption expenditures -emphasis on the words “moderate” and “slow”, however. Personal
consumption did expand by 1.8% in 2013Q2, down from 2.3% in the first quarter. There is another force at
work providing a slight headwind for consumer spending, however–deleveraging. Given the economic
challenges of the last few years, households have rapidly retired existing debt and largely avoided new
borrowing. Despite new auto loan activity, slowly increasing revolving credit, and rising student loans,
households are still taking a conservative stance toward new debt providing a slight headwind for new
consumer spending.
 Looking ahead to 2014, we expect gathering momentum to continue through next year and beyond
resulting in sustained growth with low inflation. Economic growth will largely come from the private
sector, particularly housing and business investment, given the fiscal challenges that exist at all levels of
government. Moreover, tepid global growth will keep export contributions relatively small through 2014.
Finally, the uncertainty created by (a) the upcoming debt ceiling debate, (b) continued Sequestration, and

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GBTA BTI™ OUTLOOK – UNITED STATES
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© October 2013 GBTA and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Members may copy this publication in its entirety for
internal company use.
Expectations for renewed
business spending come from
the confluence of a number of
strengthening leading
indicators. First, corporate profits
and cash flow remain strong and
growing. Companies have both the
internal means to self-finance
equipment expansion and the
collateral to borrow. Secondly,
management sentiment has
brightened considerably in the past
few months (see adjacent chart).
Thirdly, postponed capital
purchases have created some
degree of pent-up demand that
should start to be released in the
quarters ahead. Finally, modest-
yet-sustained top-line revenue growth
requires new and replacement equipment to
maintain production, productivity, and
competitive advantage. Importantly, these
conditions also suggest improved business
travel activity ahead.
Housing activity is also a tide that is lifting
many economic boats. Improved housing
sales in the face of constrained inventories has
pushed up prices (in many markets at double-
digit rates), sparked increased household
durables sales, and boosted the construction
sector. Very few segments of the economy
provide the kind of economic catalyst for
growth as does housing.
The adjacent graph charts the progress of new housing starts, both single and multifamily units, from the
peak of the housing bubble in early 2006 to the
trough of the Great Recession on through to the
latest data (July 2013). Multifamily construction
had already been rising rapidly as newly formed
households and families displaced by foreclosures
flocked to apartment units. With slowly rising job
growth and still-favorable mortgage rates, record
affordability also has single family dwellings
getting into the growth game. Perhaps the best
news is that there is still a long way to go
before record-low inventories are
replenished, particularly considering the current
rates of sales for new and existing homes.

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GBTA BTI™ OUTLOOK – UNITED STATES
2013 Q3
© October 2013 GBTA and its affiliates. All rights reserved. Members may copy this publication in its entirety for
internal company use.
BUSINESS TRAVEL QUARTERLY OUTLOOK DETAILS
Total U.S.-Originated Business Travel Spending & Trip Volumes3
Our forecasts for U.S.-originated business travel spending and Person-Trip volume have been slightly downgraded
from last quarter’s outlook (GBTA BTI™ Outlook – United States, July 2013). Total business travel volume is almost
on par with our expectations from last quarter, while our spending forecast is slightly lower – mostly the result of
lowered expectations for travel price inflation. In the second quarter of 2013, 66.9 million person-trips were
generated in the US and $112.7 billion was spent on business travel activity. This represents an annual decline of -
1.3% in volume and growth of 1.5% in spending. In total, we expect business travel volume to fall -0.6% in 2013 to
451.7 million person-trips; spending will pick up, however, by 2.9% growing to $269.5 billion USD.
We see both the US and global economies continuing to pick up momentum into 2014, which will help to accelerate
the growth in business travel. We expect volume to grow 1.7% to 459.2 million person-trips and spending to pick
up 7.2%, growing to $288.8 billion USD.
Group Meeting & Convention vs. Transient Business Travel
Group travel outperformed transient business travel in 2010, mainly the result of a cyclical snapback from the
Great Recession – a period when spending on group business travel experienced double-digit annual declines. In
2011 and 2012, however, the global recovery stalled as Europe entered into Recession, China’s growth slowed, and
the economic recovery in the US was anything but robust. Those woes weighed on the volume of group business
travel, which fell -0.6% in 2011 and eked out a gain of only 0.5% in 2012. Despite negative volume growth,
spending on Group business travel received a significant boost from rising travel prices and higher spend per trip
in 2011, growing 7.2%. In 2012, spending on group slowed to 3.3% as inflation slowed, the economic recovery
pumped the brakes and meeting planners were forced to deal with smaller budgets. Transient has been a bit more
resilient over the last couple years. Through the economic recovery firms have continued to invest in activities
(like transient business travel) that support top-line growth. In 2012, there were a total of 281.6 million transient
Person-Trips, 3.2% growth over 2011.
3 Includes all U.S. domestic business travel plus international outbound trips