1. Sustainable food consumption and production
in a resource-constrained world
Erik Mathijs

2. INEVITABLE…?
“By 2050 the world’s population will reach 9.2 billion (…). Nearly all of
this population increase will occur in developing countries. (…) about 70
percent of the world’s population will be urban (…). Income levels will be
many multiples of what they are now. In order to feed this larger, more
urban and richer population, food production (net of food used for
biofuels) must increase by 70 percent.” (FAO)
…UNDERLYING WORLDVIEW?

3. INTRODUCTION
• Purpose: guide European agricultural research with respect to future
orientations
• Final aim: building blocks to prepare transition towards a sustainable ag and
food system
• Client: EU Standing Committee on Agricultural Research & European
Commission (DG RTD, DG Agri)
• Timing: June 2010 – February 2011
• Execution: 8 external experts, supported by SCAR working group and
stakeholder consultation/validation through workshop

4. METHOD
• Meta-study: scan
foresight activities and
academic papers
(2009 / 2010)
• Framework: transition
theory
• Emphasis: resource
scarcity
• Discourse analysis:
make implicit
underlying worldview

5. RESULTS
1. Sense of urgency due to resource scarcities
accelerates (due to interactions)
2. Way we look at problems and solutions
differs fundamentally between
productivity-oriented (“more with less”) and
sufficiency-oriented thinking (“less is more”)
3. Not productivity or sufficiency, but
productivity and sufficiency – all
approaches are necessary, no silver
bullet
Source: Rockstrom et al.

7. TRANSITION PATHWAYS Narratives of food production
and consumption
• Consumer driven
• Technology driven (biotech,
GMO, nano, ICT, agro- Biophysical scarcities
ecologyg) Socio-economic Transition pathways
• Organizational innovation and political context
driven (CSR, social
innovation, global
governance) Long-term vision - Research needs
Research policy implications

8. IMPACT AND CALL TO ACTION
• Take into account often implicit underlying values and worldviews and
stimulate diversity
• Consider multiple pathways that may contradict or reinforce each other
• Help stakeholders engage into frame-breaking thinking, not only in future
scenarios, but also with respect to current system
CSA farm
in
Leuven,
Belgium Cattle Feedlot.
NDSU Ag
Communication
February
11, 2011